证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 1 月 24 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、策略和先进制造组： 对上述事件发展趋势的点评，存在由于经济增长、行业竞争、外部经济环境和政 策等变化，而不如预期的可能。 第一创业证券研究所 证书编号：S1080510120001 电话：010-63197789 邮箱：lihuaijun@fcsc.com 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 3 页 国内半导体封测大厂华天科技公布 2024 年业绩预告，预计 2024 年实现归属于母 公司所有者的净利润为 55,000 万元－63,000 万元，同比增长 143.02%－178.36%， 基本符合 Wind 的一致盈利预期。其中四季度单季度净利 2.3 亿，同比增涨 63%， 是过去两年单季净利润最高的季度。其公告的业绩增长主因是 2024 年电子终端 产品需求回暖，公司订单增加，营业收入同比有显著增长。由于公司市占率较高， 他的业绩可以代表整个半导体的行业景气，同时也是第一 ...

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 1 月 23 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、策略和先进制造组： 可穿戴主控芯片厂商恒玄科技公布 2024 年业绩预告，预计 2024 年实现归属于母 公司所有者的净利润为45,000万元到47,000万元，同比增长264.00%到280.18%， 复合 Wind 的一致预期。预计 2024 年度实现营业收入为 324,300 万元到 328,300 万元，同比增长 49.02%到 50.85%。第四季度单季度，公司收入中值 7.9 亿，同 比增长 29%，增速较前三季度的 58%有所下滑，主要原因是消费电子基本都是 2023 年下半年逐步复苏，抬高了收入基数。四季度净利润中值 1.7 亿，同比增长 28 倍。公司业绩增长主因是 2024 年，可穿戴市场保持快速增长，公司在智能蓝牙 耳机、智能手表市场的份额进一步提升。 分析师：李怀军 物联网互联芯片厂商泰凌微公布 2024 年业绩预告，预计 2024 年营业收入为 8.44 亿元左右，同比增加 33%左右。预计 2024 年归属于母公司所有者的净利润为 9,700 万元左右，同比增加 95%左 ...

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 1 月 22 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 风险提示： 对上述事件发展趋势的点评，存在由于经济增长、行业竞争、外部经济环境和政 策等变化，而不如预期的可能。 第一创业证券研究所 证书编号：S1080510120001 电话：010-63197789 邮箱：lihuaijun@fcsc.com 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 3 页 晨会纪要 一、策略和先进制造组： 晶合集成公布 2024 年业绩预告，预计 2024 年度实现营业收入 902,000.00 万元到 947,000.00 万元，同比上升 24.52%到 30.74%。预计 2024 年归属 于母公司所有者的净利润 45,500.00 万元到 59,000.00 万元，同比上升 115.00%到 178.79%。业绩增长主要原因是 DDIC 的增长，以及 CIS 占比的 大幅提升。同日显示驱动设计厂商天德钰公布 2024 年业绩预告，预计 2024 年营业收 ...

Group 1: CIS Chip Packaging Industry - The report highlights that Crystal Technology, a CIS chip packaging factory, forecasts a net profit of 240 million to 264 million yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 59.90% to 75.89% [3] - The growth is attributed to the continuous expansion and leading advantage in the automotive CIS packaging business, as well as commercialization in new fields such as MEMS and RF filters [3] - The report also notes that the camera lens filter company Dongtianwei expects a net profit of 55 million to 62 million yuan for 2024, marking a turnaround from losses in 2023, driven by a 4% increase in global smartphone sales [3] Group 2: Beverage Industry - Dongpeng Beverage anticipates a net profit of 3.15 billion to 3.45 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a growth of 54% to 69% compared to the previous year, which aligns with market expectations [6] - The company reported that cash received from sales exceeded 6 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2024, a year-on-year increase of over 63% [6] - The report suggests that while overall revenue growth may slow in 2025 due to a high performance base, the market performance of the new product "Brew Water" could be a potential source of future growth [6] Group 3: Frozen Bakery Industry - Lihigh Food, a leader in the frozen bakery sector, projects a net profit of 265 million to 285 million yuan for 2024, indicating a year-on-year increase of 262.88% to 290.27% [7] - Excluding the impact of stock payment expenses from a 2022 incentive plan, the net profit is expected to be 275 million to 295 million yuan, with a growth rate of 48.03% to 58.80% [7] - The report emphasizes Lihigh Food's potential for future growth due to its strategic positioning in the market and its focus on developing a second growth curve through its cream business [7]

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - From December 2024 to January 19, 2025, 957 companies announced their earnings forecasts for 2024, with only 44% (425 companies) expecting profits and 40% (384 companies) anticipating year-on-year growth. However, there was an improvement in Q4 performance, aligning with the GDP growth trend reported by the National Bureau of Statistics [2] - Among the companies that announced their forecasts before January 17, 72% expected profits, and 58% anticipated positive year-on-year growth. In contrast, from January 17 to 19, only 35% of the 716 companies forecasted profits, and 34% expected positive growth, indicating a significant decline in optimistic forecasts [2] Group 2: Industry Insights - Companies with high export revenue showed a higher proportion of profit growth. The semiconductor storage, home appliance, IoT, and equipment sub-industries had a notable increase in profit forecasts. Additionally, the PCB industry's HDI board supply chain, optical modules, optical lenses, home refrigeration equipment, automotive parts, and pharmaceuticals (antibiotics, aquaculture, beer, and express shipping) also showed relatively high profit growth expectations [2] Group 3: Company-Specific Analysis - Haida Group, primarily engaged in feed and pig farming, forecasted a net profit of between 4.25 billion to 4.8 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 55.04% to 75.10%. The growth is attributed to the rebound in pig prices and effective futures hedging, alongside a 9% increase in its feed business, which generated 96 billion yuan in revenue last year [5] - Qingmu Technology, focused on online retail services, projected a net profit growth of 63.20% to 92.00% for 2024. The growth is driven by a 30% increase in its core e-commerce operation services and significant contributions from its brand incubation business, which generated 200 million yuan in revenue, compared to 1 billion yuan for the entire year of 2023 [6]

Group 1: Chip Industry Insights - Chipong Micro is expected to achieve a revenue of 940 million to 980 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.45% to 25.58%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 100 million to 120 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 68.13% to 101.76% [2] - The growth in performance is primarily driven by over 60% year-on-year revenue growth in high/low voltage driver chips, digital power chips, and smart power devices and modules. The company has over 1,700 effective product models, with major applications in home appliances and standard power supplies [2] - TSMC reported a revenue of $26.887 billion for Q4 2024, a 37% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 59%. The high growth in revenue and profit is attributed to the significant increase in the proportion of revenue from 3nm and 5nm advanced processes, driven mainly by AI-related high-performance computing applications [3] Group 2: Consumer Sector Insights - Zhongchong Co., as a leading player in the domestic pet food industry, is expected to see a net profit attributable to the parent company grow by 54% to 72% in 2024, with a median annual net profit of approximately 380 million yuan [6] - The growth is supported by the expansion of domestic and overseas sales channels and an increase in sales volume, with the overseas revenue exceeding domestic revenue by more than double [6] - Yizhi Konjac, listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, has a unique competitive advantage in the konjac product sector, with konjac balls experiencing a remarkable growth rate of 61% in the first half of 2024, driven by increasing consumer demand for healthy beverages [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [32]. Core Insights - The camera industry chain is expected to continue its upward trend in prosperity, driven by significant growth in the performance forecasts of key companies such as Yutong Optical, Qiu Tai Technology, Crystal Optoelectronics, and Hongsoft Technology for 2024 [4][5]. - The overall high growth of these companies likely reflects the improving prosperity of the entire camera industry chain, with various segments such as security, automotive, and consumer electronics contributing to this trend [4][5]. - The global smartphone and PC sales are projected to achieve real growth in 2024, ending a period of decline, while the demand for AI-enabled applications and smart vehicles is expected to further boost the industry [4][16]. Summary by Sections Company Performance Forecasts - Yutong Optical expects a net profit of 160-200 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 418.56%-548.20% due to increased business volume in security and automotive optics [6]. - Hongsoft Technology anticipates a net profit of approximately 178 million yuan, representing a 101.16% year-on-year growth, driven by revenue increases in mobile smart terminals and smart vehicles [6]. - Qiu Tai Technology forecasts a net profit growth of 200%-280% for 2024, with a median profit of 284 million yuan, attributed to the positive market for AIoT devices and smartphones [6]. - Crystal Optoelectronics projects a net profit of 1-1.12 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 66.6%-86.6% due to the recovery in the global consumer electronics industry [6]. Industry Recovery Trends - The camera industry chain has shown a clear recovery trend from 2022 to 2024, with companies like Weir Shares and Siterway experiencing rapid growth due to their entry into the domestic Android smartphone market [8][11]. - The revenue growth rates for optical lens companies have also improved significantly, with companies like O-Film showing a 34% increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 [11]. Demand from AI and Smart Vehicles - Global smartphone sales are projected to reach 334 million units in Q4 2024, marking a 1.7% year-on-year increase, indicating a turnaround from previous declines [16][19]. - The domestic retail sales of new energy vehicles are expected to grow by 41% in 2024, with a penetration rate of 47.6%, driven by the advantages of smart and hybrid vehicles over traditional fuel vehicles [20][24].

第一创业证券研究所 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 1 月 16 日 晨会纪要 一、宏观经济组： 事件： 分析师：李怀军 证书编号：S1080510120001 电话：010-63197789 邮箱：lihuaijun@fcsc.com 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 1 月 15 日（星期三），美国劳工部统计局公布 12 月 CPI 数据；1 月 14 日（星 期二）公布 PPI 数据。 点评： 12 月美国未季调 CPI 同比为 2.9%，预期 2.9%,前值（11 月）为 2.7%；季调后 CPI 环比为 0.4%，预期为 0.3%，前值为 0.3%。 分析师：郭强 从 12 月核心 CPI 来看，未季调同比为 3.2%，预期为 3.3%，前值为 3.3%；季 调后核心环比为 0.2%，预期为 0.2%，前值为 0.3%。 12 月美国 CPI 未季调环比为 0.0%，前值为-0.1%；未季调核心 CPI 环比为 0.0%， 前值为 0.1%。从结构上看，各分项 12 月与 ...

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 1 月 15 日 晨会纪要 一[、T宏ab观le研_究Su组mmary] 第一创业证券研究所 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 点评： 从存量上看，12 月 M1 同比增长-1.4%，高于 Wind 预期-3.3%，较 11 月-3.7% 回升 2.3 个百分点；M2 同比增长 7.3%，与 Wind 预期持平，较 11 月 7.1% 回升 0.2 个百分点；12 月 M1-M2 同比之差为-8.7%，较上月回升 2.1 个百 分点，表明货币流通速度有所回升。而 12 月社融存量同比为 8.0%，与 Wind 预期持平，较 11 月 7.8%回升 0.2 个百分点；社融与 M2 同比之差为 0.7%， 与 11 月持平，说明对资金需求增速相对于资金供给增速，保持相对稳定。 分析师：郭强 从增量上看，12 月社融新增规模为 2.86 万亿元，前值为 2.33 万亿；同比 多增 9249 亿元；其中，政府债券同比多增 8288 亿，企业债券同比多增 2588 亿元，银行贷款少增 2685 亿元， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [18]. Core Viewpoints - The TV panel prices are showing an upward trend in January 2025, with 65-inch and 75-inch panels increasing by $2 per unit, reaching $178 and $242 respectively. The 85-inch panels are priced at $360, while smaller panels (32 to 55 inches) remain stable compared to December 2024 [2][4]. - The domestic panel market is expected to benefit from the "old-for-new" appliance replacement policy, which is projected to sustain throughout 2025, leading to increased panel sales [6]. - The exit of major players like Samsung and LG from the TFT TV panel industry has resulted in a higher concentration of market share among domestic manufacturers, with a reported 68.6% market share for Chinese manufacturers by November 2024 [11]. - The trend towards larger TV sizes is evident, with the market share of 85-inch TVs increasing from 10% to 20% in 2024, indicating a growing demand for larger panels [13]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - In January 2025, TV panel prices are on the rise, with specific increases noted for larger sizes. The 65-inch panel is now at $178, the 75-inch at $242, and the 85-inch at $360, while smaller sizes remain stable [2][4]. Market Dynamics - The "old-for-new" policy has led to a 7.7% increase in sales area for large panels in 2024, and this trend is expected to continue into 2025, further boosting sales [6]. - The exit of Samsung and LG has reduced the number of major players in the market, enhancing the competitive landscape for remaining domestic manufacturers [11]. Size Trends - The retail market for 85-inch TVs has seen a significant increase in share, rising from 10% to 20% in 2024, reflecting a shift towards larger screen sizes [13].