Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a favorable outlook for the lithium battery materials sector, with expectations that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [35]. Core Insights - The lithium battery materials industry is expected to see a recovery in its economic conditions after a prolonged downturn, with signs of price stabilization and potential investment opportunities emerging [5][31]. - The overall price decline in the lithium battery supply chain has slowed, with significant reductions in prices for key materials such as lithium carbonate and separators, which have seen declines of 73% and 60% respectively since late 2021 [5][8]. - The planned investment in the lithium battery sector for 2024 is projected to be less than 320 billion, a decrease of over 70% compared to 2023, indicating a significant contraction in new capacity investments [10][12]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The lithium battery materials supply chain has experienced a significant price drop since late 2021, with separators down 60%, battery-grade lithium carbonate down 73%, and artificial graphite down 46%. However, by early 2024, the price declines began to stabilize, with separators expected to decrease by 30% for the year but stabilize in the second half [5][8][9]. Supply and Investment - The planned investment in the lithium battery sector for 2024 is projected to be less than 320 billion, a decrease of over 70% compared to 2023 and over 77% compared to 2022. The investment in electrolytes and copper foil is expected to drop by more than 90% compared to 2023 [10][12]. Demand Growth - Global lithium-ion battery shipments are expected to reach 1545.1 GWh in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.5%. The demand for batteries in the energy storage sector is also anticipated to grow significantly, with domestic energy storage tender volumes exceeding 190 GW, more than doubling year-on-year [16][20][27]. Future Outlook - The introduction of new vehicle replacement subsidies in 2025 is expected to further boost the growth of domestic new energy vehicle sales, which are projected to maintain a growth rate of around 20% [24][31]. The demand for energy storage batteries is also expected to increase due to regulatory changes requiring longer storage durations [30][31].

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 1 月 14 日 晨会纪要 一[、T宏ab观le研_究Su组mmary] 第一创业证券研究所 事件： 证书编号：S1080510120001 电话：010-63197789 邮箱：lihuaijun@fcsc.com 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 第 1 页 共 4 页 晨会纪要 1 月 13 日（星期一）中国海关公布 2024 年 12 月外贸数据。 分析师：李怀军 点评： 以美元计价，中国 2024 年 12 月出口同比增长 10.7%，高于 WIND 预期 7.14%， 前值（11 月）增长 6.7%；进口增长 1.0%，高于 WIND 预期-1.02%，前值增长 -3.9%；贸易顺差 1048 亿美元，首次创出 1000 亿美元以上的单月最高顺差纪 录，前值 974 亿美元。以累计增速计，1-12 月出口同比增为 5.9%，而 1-11 月 为 5.4%；1-12 月进口累计增速 1.1%，而 1-11 月为 1.2%。从累计增速看，进 出口增速更为稳定，自二季度起出口逐月上升， ...

Economic Overview - In December, the U.S. added 256,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected increase of 160,000, marking the highest monthly increase since June 2024 [2] - The unemployment rate in December was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.2% [2] - Private non-farm average hourly wages increased by 3.9% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 4.0% [2] Employment Structure - Government jobs increased by 33,000, while private goods-producing jobs saw a decrease of 8,000 [3] - The private service sector added 231,000 jobs, with notable increases in education and healthcare (80,000), leisure and hospitality (43,000), and professional and business services (28,000) [3] Market Reaction - The positive employment data led to a rise in the dollar index by 48 basis points to 109.66, while U.S. Treasury yields fell [4] - Gold prices increased by 0.76% to $2,690 per ounce, and silver rose by 0.94% to $30.38 per ounce [4] - U.S. stock markets experienced declines, with NASDAQ and Dow Jones down by 1.63% and S&P 500 down by 1.54% respectively [4] Panel Industry - TV panel prices showed an upward trend in January 2025, with 65-inch and 75-inch panels increasing by $2 each, reaching $178 and $242 respectively [7] - The sales area for large-size panels grew by 7.7% due to government subsidies for replacing old appliances, which is expected to continue into 2025 [7] - The market share of Chinese LCD TV panel manufacturers reached 68.6% by November 2024, indicating improved industry concentration and competition [7][8] Consumer Sector - Yanjing Beer is expected to significantly reduce losses in Q4 2024, with a projected sales increase of 30% for its core product [10] - Despite a strong performance in 2023, Yanjing's stock price fell by approximately 20%, but has since rebounded by about 20% since late September 2024 [10] - Wanchen Group is noted for its strong performance, with potential for further growth if market conditions improve [12]

Core Insights - The report highlights the stability of CPI and PPI in December, with CPI year-on-year growth at 0.1% and PPI at -2.3%, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the economy [3][5] - The report anticipates continued growth in the energy storage sector, projecting over 50% growth in 2025 due to new policies in Shanghai [10] - The automotive industry is expected to benefit from domestic policies, with a projected growth rate of 5.5% in 2024 for passenger vehicles, particularly in the new energy segment [11][12] Economic Indicators - December CPI year-on-year growth was 0.1%, matching expectations, while core CPI grew by 0.4% [3] - December PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.3%, with a month-on-month change of -0.1% [4] - Food prices saw a significant decline, with fresh vegetables down 2.4% and pork prices down 2.1% [4] Industry Analysis - The highest month-on-month increase in December was seen in the electricity and heat production and supply industry at 0.9% [5] - The coal mining and washing industry experienced the largest decline at -1.9% [5] - The report notes a recovery in service sector performance, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in December [5] Company Performance - Hai Da Group expects a net profit of 4.25 billion to 4.8 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55% to 75% [12] - Zhongshi Technology anticipates a net profit of 190 million to 220 million yuan for 2024, representing a growth of 157.6% to 198.28% [13] - The report indicates that the consumer electronics sector is showing signs of recovery, particularly driven by AI applications [13] Market Trends - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the domestic automotive market, driven by government incentives and increasing penetration of new energy vehicles [11][12] - The energy storage market is projected to grow significantly due to new regulations and increasing demand for renewable energy integration [10] - The report suggests that the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, is expected to see improved profitability as feed costs decline [12]

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 1 月 9 日 第一创业证券研究所 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 晨会纪要 一[、T策ab略le和_先Su进m制m造a组r：y] 1、牧原股份公告 2024 年业绩预告，全年销售收入 1,362.25 亿元，同比增 长 22.9%，销售生猪 7160.2 万头，增 12%，净利 175 亿元，大幅扭亏，基 本符合同花顺统计的一致预期。四季度单季度，收入 394 亿元，同比增长 41.4%，生猪出栏增长 28%，净利润 70 亿，同比增长 390%。在生猪价格环 比持续下滑情况下，公司四季度表现明显好于全年，公司龙头地位进一步 稳固。牧原股份 2024 年 12 月的养殖成本每公斤已经降到了 13 块钱左右， 目前期货的价格最低在 13 块钱左右，现货价格在 18 元左右，所以整个生 猪养殖链，2025 年 Q1 的净利润还会是不错的，即使在期货最低价情况下， 产业链也已经走出了过去的亏损。 分析师：郭强 2、甬矽电子公布了 2024 年的业绩预告，预计营业收入 35 亿元至 37 亿元， ...

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 1 月 7 日 晨会纪要 一[、T策ab略le和_先Su进m制m造a组r：y] 第一创业证券研究所 事件一： 1、国家发展改革委、国家能源局印发《电力系统调节能力优化专项行动实 施方案（2025-2027 年）》。方案要求，到 2027 年，通过调节能力的建设 优化，支撑 2025—2027 年年均新增 2 亿千瓦以上新能源的合理消纳利用， 全国新能源利用率不低于 90%。 分析师：李怀军 2、2025 年高工锂电调研国内 1 月锂电产业排产"上修"，其中铁锂电池排 产预同增 150%，三元电池排产也实现同比增长。 点评： 看好新型储能和锂电上游产业链景气度触底反弹的投资机会。 根据《电力系统调节能力优化专项行动实施方案（2025-2027 年）》，要求 推动具备条件的存量新能源配建储能实施改造，由电力调度机构统一调度 运行，提升调用水平。在统筹安排各类调节资源建设规模基础上，结合系 统供电保障和安全稳定运行需要，优化选择适宜新型储能技术，高质量建 设一批技术先进、发挥功效的新型储能电站。到 2027 年，通过调节能力的 建设优化，支撑 2025—2027 年年均新增 2 ...

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 1 月 8 日 晨会纪要 一[、T策ab略le和_先Su进m制m造a组r：y] 1、美国 12 月服务业指数上升 2 点至 54.1,新订单指标上升 0.5 点至 54.2， 企业活动指标跳升 4.5 点，达到三个月高位。美国服务业指数明显超预期， 还有美国 11 月份职位空缺达到 809.8 万，高于预期的 774 万，职位空缺数 升至六个月高位，裁员人数基本持平，进一步证明劳动力市场稳固。导致 美国降息预期又往后延。昨天美股特别是科技股回调比较多，英伟达跌了 六个点，可能与 CES 展第一天 Nvida 的新产品发布演讲没有特别超预期的 内容，和包括微软 2025 年数据中心的资本支出指引是 800 亿美元，略低于 市场 850 亿美元的预期有关。昨天 A 股的反弹主要是半导体，还有包括通 信等相关的行业领涨，因此昨天美股的表现可能会对今天 A 股的走势带来 向下的压力。如果今天 A 股能守住最近 2 日的低点，不论下跌的底部可能 就能够确认了。 分析师：李怀军 邮箱：lihuaijun@fcsc.com 分析师：郭强 2、昨天天赐材料公布 2024 年业绩预告。预计 ...

Economic Performance - In November, industrial added value grew by 5.4% year-on-year, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from October[2] - The retail sales of consumer goods nominally increased by 3.0% year-on-year in November, a significant drop of 1.8 percentage points from September[2] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth was 3.3% from January to November, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[5] Trade and External Demand - From January to November, exports increased by 5.4% year-on-year, while imports grew by only 1.2%, indicating stronger external demand[10] - The trade surplus for January to November reached $884.7 billion, surpassing the total for the previous year of $882.1 billion[10] - In November, the export growth rate was 6.7%, a decrease of 6 percentage points from October, while imports fell by 3.9%[6] Consumer Prices and Inflation - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November decreased by 0.6% month-on-month, with food prices dropping by 2.7%[3] - Year-on-year, food prices rose by 1.0% in November, down 1.9 percentage points from October, while non-food prices remained flat at 0.0%[3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in November, indicating slight inflationary pressure[23] Employment and Consumer Confidence - The urban unemployment rate in November was stable at 5.0%, with youth unemployment remaining high at 17.1% for ages 16-24[29] - The consumer confidence index was recorded at 86.9 in October, reflecting a slight recovery but still significantly lower than the 121.5 level in January 2022[29] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment saw a year-on-year decline of 10.4% from January to November, with new construction down by 23%[30] - In November, housing sales showed signs of improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 19.8% in transaction volume compared to the previous year[31] - The real estate price index for new homes in November was down 6.1% year-on-year, but showed a slight recovery of 0.1 percentage points from October[34]

Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for November is 50.3%, maintaining above 50 for two consecutive months, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from October[2] - The production index in November is 52.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[6] - New orders index has returned to expansion at 50.8%, marking the first increase since May 2024, rising by 0.8 percentage points[12] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The new orders minus finished goods inventory index stands at 3.4%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating a high level over the past year[3] - The procurement quantity index is at 51.0%, increasing by 1.7 percentage points, indicating a return to expansion for the first time since May 2024[18] - The import index is at 47.3%, up 0.3 percentage points, reflecting weaker external demand compared to domestic demand[12] Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.0%, down 0.2 percentage points, with the construction sector falling to 49.7%, indicating contraction for the first time since March 2020[4] - The comprehensive PMI output index remains stable at 50.8%, indicating overall expansion in business activities[12] Inventory and Pricing Trends - Finished goods inventory index is at 47.4%, up 0.5 percentage points, while raw materials inventory remains steady at 48.2%[18] - The factory price index is at 47.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, indicating insufficient effective demand despite new orders returning to expansion[20] - The difference between factory price index and raw material purchase price index is -2.1%, indicating a potential improvement in manufacturing profits, although still at a low level[20] Business Size Analysis - Large enterprises have a PMI of 50.9%, down 0.6 percentage points, while medium enterprises are at 50.0%, up 0.6 percentage points, indicating slight improvement[21] - Small enterprises show a significant recovery with a PMI of 49.1%, up 1.6 percentage points, although still in contraction[21]

Economic Performance - In October, industrial added value grew by 5.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from September[2] - The industrial enterprises' production and sales rate rose to 97.3%, up 1.3 percentage points from September, indicating improved supply-demand relations[2] - The trade surplus in October was $95.7 billion, the second highest on record, although lower than June's $98.6 billion[7] External Demand - October export growth reached 12.7% in USD terms, a significant increase compared to September's 2.4%, while import growth fell to -2.3%[7] - The cumulative export growth from January to October was 5.1%, up from 4.3% in the previous period, while cumulative import growth was 1.7%[11] Domestic Demand - Social retail sales in October nominally increased by 4.8% year-on-year, a rise of 1.6 percentage points from September[3] - Fixed asset investment growth for the first ten months was 3.4%, consistent with the previous period, with manufacturing investment showing the strongest growth at 9.3%[6] Consumer Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October showed a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, slightly below the expected 0.4%[17] - Food prices rose by 2.9% year-on-year, significantly higher than non-food prices, which fell by 0.3%[17] Real Estate Sector - The National Real Estate Market Index in October was 92.5, up 0.1 percentage points from September, indicating signs of recovery in the real estate sector[36] - New home prices in first-tier cities turned positive for the first time this year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%[36]