欢迎大家来参加我们追踪养殖锦旗系列的电话会议那么今天我们第一场是跟东北我们东宝大学的销售经理呢戈总去做行业深度的沟通后续大家有任何问题的话也欢迎随时举手进行提问戈总能听到吗能听到谢谢戈总我这边几个小问题跟您先探讨因为7月份以来似乎这个价格深度价格涨的速度确实还是比较快您怎么去 看今年下半年整体一个度假的一个走势啊好这个问题呢也是我们都是每天都在反思和思考的一个问题因为在我们在今天上半年的度假一直在出现哥总你那边信号有点断断续续能听到吗现在现在可以刚才有点现在可以刚才有点断断续续嗯好的啊 那我现在开始整个今年上半年来看的话无论是紫竹的价格还是肥竹价格基本都处于一个相对盈利水平线以上或者是相对的高位以上但是我们对于日后和整个下半年的一个预估和评估的话大家没有可能更高的一个积极性或者没有一个更好的一个乐观的一个态度所以说我们现在7月份的住价 它目前这个价格又逐渐出现了一个上扬和回升我们感觉大家也都是在讨论可能和整个七月份的消费端的一些开放无论是高考中考之后可能是消费端的一个开放之后会刺激一些消费的拉动或者增加可能是能够维持或者保证这个肥猪的价格 再有这个子猪的价格呢目前在东北目前30斤子猪的价格就15公斤的子猪它是 ...

Monetary Policy Changes - The recent interest rate cut was 10 basis points (BP), which is consistent with previous cuts but may not be sufficient given current economic pressures[2]. - The 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is now 3.35%, and the 5-year LPR is 3.85%[6]. Economic Context - The actual GDP growth in Q2 was only 4.7%, significantly below the target of around 5% set at the beginning of the year, indicating a need for stronger counter-cyclical measures[12]. - PMI indicators for May and June were below pre-pandemic averages, reflecting weak internal economic momentum[21]. Policy Framework - The new monetary policy framework is characterized by the unchanged Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate, while the 7-day reverse repurchase rate was adjusted to a fixed rate and quantity auction format[18][19]. - The shift in the operational framework suggests that the 7-day reverse repo rate is becoming the primary policy rate, diminishing the role of MLF in future monetary policy decisions[20]. Future Outlook - There is potential for 1-2 more rate cuts, totaling around 20 BP, to support the completion of annual growth targets[49][64]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may cut rates three times this year, which could further open up policy space for domestic monetary adjustments[12][46]. Risks - Risks include the possibility that fiscal and monetary policy measures may not be as effective as expected, and that the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts may not align with market expectations[29].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [1] Core Views - The company, Dazhu Laser, is experiencing a gradual recovery in downstream demand and is continuously expanding its product offerings and market reach [1] - The company forecasts a net profit range of 1.21 to 1.26 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 181.34% to 192.97% [1] - The company has a vertical integration advantage, providing comprehensive solutions from basic components to complete equipment and process solutions [1] Financial Forecasts - The projected operating revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 15.11 billion, 17.20 billion, and 18.49 billion yuan respectively [1] - The expected net profits for the same years are 1.84 billion, 1.25 billion, and 1.45 billion yuan respectively [1] - The company anticipates continued improvement in profitability through the synergistic development of its product lines [1] Market Position and Product Lines - The company’s main products include general components, industry-specific machines, and extreme manufacturing products, with the latter being the primary source of revenue and profit [1] - In the information industry equipment sector, the company is actively updating products and processes to support stable growth in consumer electronics [1] - The company is also focusing on large customer strategies and accelerating its international expansion in the new energy equipment sector [1] Operational Efficiency - The company has established factories in multiple locations to enhance production delivery and service capabilities, thereby improving profitability [1] - The company has achieved breakthroughs in key industries such as steel structures and shipbuilding, forming close collaborations with leading industry clients [1]

Group 1: Housing Market Overview - Germany's housing market is predominantly rental-based, with approximately 46.7% homeownership rate in 2022, significantly lower than the US (65.9%) and Singapore (82%) [27] - The housing supply has remained stable, with a consistent homeownership rate fluctuating between 40% and 50% over the past two decades [27] - The government has implemented a four-part legal framework since 1950 to support diverse housing supply and protect tenant rights [26] Group 2: Housing Tax System - The German housing tax system includes various taxes such as property tax, land tax, and real estate transfer tax, which are designed to regulate the market [56] - Lower tax rates are applied to owner-occupied and rental properties to support housing demand, while high real estate transfer taxes are imposed to curb speculative investments [61] - For properties sold within ten years, a capital gains tax of up to 25% is applicable, further discouraging speculative behavior [62] Group 3: Housing Financing and Support - The government provides low-interest loans and tax incentives to encourage housing construction, particularly for low-income families and non-profit organizations [68] - The "first save, then loan" model stabilizes financing costs and mitigates speculative demand in the housing market [90] - Direct monetary subsidies are provided to low-income households, covering the difference between actual rent paid and affordable rent, typically set at 25% of household income [69]

我是东北宏观的张晨今天下午由我给各位领导汇报一下我们的一个重要的研究成果那么我们给它取的名字叫做跨越中等收入其实关于这一篇报告我们主要想讨论的问题其实就是关于我们中长期的政策取向以及我们观察到实际的宏观经济中的一些现象我们该怎么去理解和解读它 首先我们来观察一些典型的事实首先第一点典型的事实是什么第一点典型的事实就是当我们去看待一个国家的经济增长然后利率以及工资增长率这些重要的宏观指标的时候我们会有一个大体上的结论就是一个国家的民意增长和它的利率水平以及它的工资增长率 应该是大体上是接近的甚至在皮凯蒂的21世纪资本论里面他甚至会认为说一个国家的资本回报率是明显的大于经济增速总而言之R和G的关系就是利率和经济增速的关系应该是大体匹配的比如说我们去看美国的这样的一个民营增长和它的十年期国债利率的关系我们就会发现它在长周期的角度来看 它是在一个轴线里面或者是一个水平水位线上能够放在一起去讨论的 还包括我们比方说去看日本的10年期国债利率和它的民意增速也大体上是大差不差就是在宏观模型里面我们经常能得出经济增速等于利率的这样一个结论在数据上看大体上也是这样日本的10年期国债利率和它的民意增长无论是在它的转型结束还是在它 ...

主要是金属矿山但是非金属矿山我们公司这几年萎缩的比较厉害主要金属矿山主要是铜矿和金矿和那个钦心矿就是有色矿嘛那个铁矿的话这几年的话那个因为铁矿的处理处理量没有铜矿和那个金矿的那个处理量大所以说我们公司目前的主要的那种磨机矿物设备是在有色金属矿山上运用像 铁矿的话那个大型的规格的磨机目前是相比那个有色矿的话还是比较少的非金属矿山的话像苏巍石或那个就是咱们咱们那个就是那个苏巍石就是太阳盖太阳盖的那个是那个非金属矿山这一块的话我们磨机用的比较少他主要是用的那个玄灰布玻璃机我们公司目前就主要是这个破磨这一块主要是干这个破碎机 和那个磨矿呢磨碎都是半针磨加球磨机这这几大矿用设备嗯明白嗯然后现在看下来这个行业体系会怎么样啊呃有时候金融矿产在就就近近近几年是比较爆发的比较厉害尤其是尤其是去年恐怕呢那个就是 尤其是国外矿产那个就是那个铜矿山的那个尤其那非洲铜铜矿包括那个铜铃友社那个紫金矿业这几个中资的大客户在国外那个矿山一个是就是改扩建就是原来他们买收购的矿山进行二期三期四期的然后进行的一个扩建包括俄罗斯俄罗斯的矿山也是一个改扩建就是原来的那个 规模可能就一条线然后现在都扩层三条线什么四条线就是因为这两年有色金属的价格上涨的 ...

Hmm? Which company do you work with? You go first, Longxi. Okay. As far as I know, because I'm on the product side, not on the specific R&D material side, but all the materials will be in my hands. So my main information is that at the moment, we are mainly cooperating with the processing side, Caesar. The design features of Houttuynia cordata are mainly based on their own design ideas. The design structure of the previous wine vials, treasure vials, and sand vials have been transformed into their own desig ...

各位投资的朋友大家早上好我是东北证券有资行业分析师曾志勤今天跟各位汇报一下理行业的一些最新的情况主要是针对我们那篇一季度的整个理矿的报告的一个讲解 大家可以看到标题里面写的是李佳正在摸底那么股票呢因为是提前的李佳呢大概是一年多就开始开始下跌了那这样的话就是股票呢在这个位置呢有的标的呢是已经逐渐的有了有了吸引力了那么整个板块的估值呢相对比较便宜了那么该 但有的风险也已经是排除了虽然李佳还在模拟但是板块确实是有一定的值得开始看的有的标题可能已经可以值得开始配置了那么我们细细一点点来看吧 海外的这个一季度的这个礼矿的那么呃几个部分吧一个那么大头呢肯定还是澳矿这边那么澳矿呢可以看到整个一季度这个库存的累库是比较厉害的那么已经达到了一个V字新高那么具体来看呢一个是产销量的分别是73万多和60 1.6万的那么整个的环顶的虽然是是下降的但是因为这个销量的这个下降的更多所以就造成了一定的累扩那么整个产销率的是83%那么主要的原因的最大的影响的还是台丽珍的这个就是格林布什这个矿天奇天奇这个矿那么拿货的比较少那么另外一方面的其他的一些矿也受到一些船运等等这些影响那么使得这个销量的就低于产量造成的累扩 那么咱们二季度呢因为这个格林 ...

[Table_Info1] [Table_Date] 公用事业 发布时间：2024-05-29 [Table_Title] [Table_Invest] 证券研究报告 / 行业动态报告 优于大势 锚定双碳目标，助力行业高质量发展 上次评级:优 于大势 [事Ta件ble：_2S0u2m4m年ary5] 月29日，国务院印发《2024—2025年节能降碳行动 方案》，提出24/25年节能降碳目标，部署十大重点任务。 [历Ta史bl收e_益Pi率cQ曲uo线te ] 点评：严格合理控制煤炭消费助力火电盈利修复。方案要求严格合理 控制煤炭消费，严格实施大气污染防治重点区域煤炭消费总量控制， 公用事业 沪深300 重点削减非电力用煤，并在钢铁、石化、有色、建材、建筑、交运等 10% 行业实施节能降碳行动。煤炭非电需求占煤炭总需求约40%，非电行 5% 业节能降碳有助于降低煤炭消费，过去三年全国节约化石能源消耗约 0% 3.4 亿吨标煤，今明两年重点领域和行业节能降碳改造形成节能量各 -5% 5000万吨标煤。随着多个非电行业节能降碳持续推进，煤炭需求增速 -10% 或持续降低，煤价中枢有望持续下移，助力火电盈利持续修复 ...

我是投资者尚武我是东北证券建材诱人普通话那今天呢我们就来分享一下我们最新的行业的这个观点那我们这次讲的标题呢就主要是地产最近你看政策非常多嘛那政策出来之后整个楼市的话还是呈现了一个比较不错复苏的这样一个态势那从推荐的建材领域的细分大块上来说呢我们主要是推荐消费建材跟波形的这样一个领域那这就是我们最近建材行业的观点 那首先我们先说最近行业层面的这样个变化那最近呢我们看其实中央到地方的话各类的这个楼市利好政策是比较多的那尤其是到五月中旬降首付的比例呀包括取消利率的这个下限呀降低公积金利率啊三件起发那实际上从目前来看的话他的政策已经比2016年更加宽松了 那当然这个这篇报告发布之后呢其实那一线城市还有更加多的这样一个政策那一线城市我们看很多除了北京之外上海深圳广州那他们的这个服务比例那确实是已经进行了一个下调包括限预购的话也有一定的这样一个放松那所以说从政策力度上来看那比过去一年半也要放松过去一年半的 23年的四季度开始当时疫情开始分开以及地产数据也是特别差当时到整个23年其实都有好几轮的这样一个政策放松但是目前应该来说力度更加大所以说我们觉得不太可能出现像之前的政策放松之后对于整个楼市热度的提升包括股价的提升都是 ...