盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据年报我们调整盈利预测，上调出货量，预计 2025、2026、2027 年公司归母净 利润 657.48、798.91、951.51 亿元（原预测值为 25、26 年 648、769 亿元），对 应 25-27 年 PE 17.6、14.4、12.1 倍，根据可比公司估值，给予公司 25 年 24 倍 PE，目标价 358.32 元，维持"买入"评级。 宁德时代 300750.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 业绩符合预期，海外进展顺利 核心观点 风险提示 新能源汽车销量不达预期；行业竞争加剧风险；新产品和新技术开发风险；原材料价格 波动风险；价格波动导致的盈利水平下降风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 400,917 | 362,013 | 490,618 | 572,537 | 675,005 | | 同比增长 (%) | 22.0% | -9.7% | 35.5% | 16.7% | 17.9% | | ...

核心观点 爱美客 300896.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 短期有挑战，内生+外延并举推动中长期增 长 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据年报，暂不考虑收购带来的效益，同时考虑消费复苏的波动性，我们调整盈利 预测并引入 2027 年的盈利预测，预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润为 21.66 亿、 24.52 亿和 28.17 亿（原 25-26 年为 24.89 亿和 30.3 亿），DCF 目标估值 202.76 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、终端消费需求持续减弱、储备管线拿证上市及拓展不及预 期 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,869 | 3,026 | 3,411 | 3,952 | 4,639 | | 同比增长 (%) | 48.0% | 5.4% | 12.8% | 15.8% | 17.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 2,158 | 2,291 | 2,526 | 2,859 | 3,28 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 358.32 CNY, based on a projected PE of 24 times for 2025 [3][7]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is in line with expectations, with a revenue forecast of 362.01 billion CNY and a net profit of 50.75 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.01% [8]. - The company has significantly improved its capacity utilization, reaching 76.3% for the year, and is making steady progress in its overseas expansion, including factories in Germany, Hungary, Spain, and Indonesia [8]. - New product launches are progressing well, with the company introducing innovative battery series that are expected to increase their market share in the LFP and NCM product lines [8]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 400.92 billion CNY in 2023 to 675.01 billion CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.9% [5][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 44.12 billion CNY in 2023 to 95.15 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a CAGR of 19.1% [5][11]. - The gross margin is forecasted to stabilize around 24% by 2027, while the net margin is expected to remain around 14% [5][11].

主品牌韧性增长+户外品牌持续高增，加速 海外市场布局 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据年报，我们调整了 25-26 年的盈利预测（上调了收入，下调了毛利率）并引入了 27 年的盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 4.82、5.54 和 6.24 元（原 25- 26 为 4.92 和 5.64 元），参考可比公司，我们维持公司 2025 年 21 倍 PE 估值，对应 目标价 108.31 港币（1 人民币=1.07 港币），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：流行风尚变化、市场竞争加剧、全球运动服饰消费减速等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 62,356 | 70,826 | 78,370 | 86,449 | 95,412 | | 同比增长 (%) | 16.2% | 13.6% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 10.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 15,367 | 16,595 | 18,525 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 6.34 based on a 12x PE valuation for 2025 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company has adjusted its revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2025-2026, introducing a new forecast for 2027, with expected earnings per share of RMB 0.49, 0.56, and 0.63 for 2025-2027 respectively [4][5]. - The main brand is focusing on increasing Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) investments to enhance customer interaction and brand loyalty [7][8]. - The professional sports segment, particularly the Saucony brand, has shown significant revenue growth and improved profitability, indicating the effectiveness of the DTC strategy [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of RMB 14,346 million, with a year-on-year growth of 10.9%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 13,577 million, RMB 14,452 million, RMB 15,795 million, and RMB 17,244 million respectively, with growth rates of -5.4%, 6.4%, 9.3%, and 9.2% [4][8]. - The operating profit for 2023 was RMB 1,580 million, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9%. The expected operating profits for the following years are RMB 1,966 million, RMB 1,980 million, RMB 2,309 million, and RMB 2,593 million, reflecting growth rates of 24.4%, 0.7%, 16.6%, and 12.3% [4][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was RMB 1,030 million, with a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. The forecasts for the next four years are RMB 1,238 million, RMB 1,369 million, RMB 1,558 million, and RMB 1,745 million, with growth rates of 20.2%, 10.6%, 13.8%, and 12.0% [4][8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 42.2% in 2023 to 45.0% by 2027, while the net margin is projected to increase from 7.2% to 10.1% over the same period [4][8].

宏观经济 | 专题报告 长期与短期，谁在承担关税成本？ 研究结论 风险提示 ⚫ 美国采取的贸易摩擦措施具有高度不确定性；不同统计来源的数据可能不完全可 比；测算结果可能对某些特定假设较为敏感，从而影响结论和判断。 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 20 日 | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | 结构上的积极 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 6.34 HKD based on a 12x PE valuation for 2025 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company has adjusted its revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2025-2026, while introducing projections for 2027, expecting earnings per share of 0.49, 0.56, and 0.63 RMB for 2025-2027 respectively [4]. - The main brand, Xtep, is focusing on increasing direct-to-consumer (DTC) investments to enhance customer interaction and brand loyalty [7]. - The professional sports segment, represented by Saucony, has shown significant revenue growth and improved profitability, indicating the effectiveness of the DTC strategy [7]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 14,346 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 10.9%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13,577 million, 14,452 million, 15,795 million, and 17,244 million RMB respectively [4][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 1,030 million RMB, with a projected increase to 1,238 million, 1,369 million, 1,558 million, and 1,745 million RMB for the following years [4][8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 42.2% in 2023 to 45.0% by 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to rise from 7.2% to 10.1% over the same period [4][8].

传媒行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 阿里发布新夸克，看好国内 AI agent 落地 ——人工智能动态跟踪 2025 年 3 月第 2 周 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 看好 AI 新周期带动算力-算法-应用生态三端依次持续推进，我们建议增加港股互联 网板块配置仓位，核心推荐处于产业链前端，云消费弹性明显+算法具备优势的阿 里巴巴-W（09988，买入），多模态视频生成模型技术全球领先快手-W（01024， 买入），以及卡位最佳社交场景，具备数据+应用生态优势的腾讯控股（00700， 买入）。 风险提示 行业发展及 AI 应用落地不及预期、宏观经济风险、海外政策风险。 国家/地区 中国 行业 传媒行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 19 日 看好（维持） | 项雯倩 | 021-63325888*6128 | | --- | --- | | | xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 | | 李雨琪 | 021-63325888-3023 | | | liyuqi@orientsec ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [21]. Core Insights - The European Union has reached a consensus on the "rearmament of Europe" plan, mobilizing €800 billion to advance this initiative, which includes proposals to exempt member states from the Stability and Growth Pact to significantly increase defense spending without triggering deficit procedures [13][15]. - A loan of €150 billion will be provided for defense investments, promoting joint procurement in areas such as air defense systems and drones to reduce costs and enhance interoperability, while also strengthening support for Ukraine [13][15]. - The report highlights the pressure on European countries to increase defense budgets, as most current budgets fall below the 2% of GDP target set by former President Trump [14][15]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Strategic Movements - The EU's agreement on rearmament reflects a shift towards greater defense autonomy, although challenges remain, including reliance on the US for military technology and the ideological differences among member states [14]. - The report notes that the conflict has led to a gradual formation of a new coexistence structure between Russia and Europe, with Germany and Russia being central to European security issues [14][15]. Section 2: Defense Spending - The report indicates that from 2014 to 2018, 35% of European weapon imports came from the US, which increased to 55% from 2019 to 2023, highlighting the deep military ties between Europe and the US [14]. - Countries like France, Germany, and the Netherlands are expected to bear the primary costs of the rearmament goals, while Southern European countries with high debt levels may have limited participation [14][15]. Section 3: Political Dynamics - The US Congress passed a short-term spending bill to avoid a government shutdown, reallocating funds from non-defense areas to military spending, which reflects ongoing political complexities within the US [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 21.22 CNY, reflecting a 30% premium over the average PE of comparable companies [4][9]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a projected increase in operating income from 29.14 billion CNY in 2023 to 56.52 billion CNY in 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3% [6][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise significantly, from 5.65 billion CNY in 2023 to 13.58 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a robust growth trajectory [6][9]. - The Inner Mongolia project is entering a ramp-up phase, with significant production capacity expected to enhance the company's earnings in 2025 [9][10]. - The company is also exploring new opportunities in Xinjiang, which could provide additional growth potential due to lower coal prices compared to other regions [9][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 29.14 billion CNY in 2023 to 44.33 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 34.4% [6]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from 6.79 billion CNY in 2023 to 12.04 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 53.8% [6]. - The company's gross margin is anticipated to improve from 30.4% in 2023 to 36.3% in 2025, driven by cost optimization from declining coal prices [6][9]. - The net profit margin is projected to rise from 19.4% in 2023 to 22.6% in 2025, indicating improved profitability [6][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 0.77 CNY in 2023 to 1.36 CNY in 2025 [6][9].