宏观经济 | 专题报告 长期与短期，谁在承担关税成本？ 研究结论 风险提示 ⚫ 美国采取的贸易摩擦措施具有高度不确定性；不同统计来源的数据可能不完全可 比；测算结果可能对某些特定假设较为敏感，从而影响结论和判断。 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 20 日 | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | 结构上的积极 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 6.34 HKD based on a 12x PE valuation for 2025 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company has adjusted its revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2025-2026, while introducing projections for 2027, expecting earnings per share of 0.49, 0.56, and 0.63 RMB for 2025-2027 respectively [4]. - The main brand, Xtep, is focusing on increasing direct-to-consumer (DTC) investments to enhance customer interaction and brand loyalty [7]. - The professional sports segment, represented by Saucony, has shown significant revenue growth and improved profitability, indicating the effectiveness of the DTC strategy [7]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 14,346 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 10.9%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13,577 million, 14,452 million, 15,795 million, and 17,244 million RMB respectively [4][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 1,030 million RMB, with a projected increase to 1,238 million, 1,369 million, 1,558 million, and 1,745 million RMB for the following years [4][8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 42.2% in 2023 to 45.0% by 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to rise from 7.2% to 10.1% over the same period [4][8].

传媒行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 阿里发布新夸克，看好国内 AI agent 落地 ——人工智能动态跟踪 2025 年 3 月第 2 周 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 看好 AI 新周期带动算力-算法-应用生态三端依次持续推进，我们建议增加港股互联 网板块配置仓位，核心推荐处于产业链前端，云消费弹性明显+算法具备优势的阿 里巴巴-W（09988，买入），多模态视频生成模型技术全球领先快手-W（01024， 买入），以及卡位最佳社交场景，具备数据+应用生态优势的腾讯控股（00700， 买入）。 风险提示 行业发展及 AI 应用落地不及预期、宏观经济风险、海外政策风险。 国家/地区 中国 行业 传媒行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 19 日 看好（维持） | 项雯倩 | 021-63325888*6128 | | --- | --- | | | xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 | | 李雨琪 | 021-63325888-3023 | | | liyuqi@orientsec ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [21]. Core Insights - The European Union has reached a consensus on the "rearmament of Europe" plan, mobilizing €800 billion to advance this initiative, which includes proposals to exempt member states from the Stability and Growth Pact to significantly increase defense spending without triggering deficit procedures [13][15]. - A loan of €150 billion will be provided for defense investments, promoting joint procurement in areas such as air defense systems and drones to reduce costs and enhance interoperability, while also strengthening support for Ukraine [13][15]. - The report highlights the pressure on European countries to increase defense budgets, as most current budgets fall below the 2% of GDP target set by former President Trump [14][15]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Strategic Movements - The EU's agreement on rearmament reflects a shift towards greater defense autonomy, although challenges remain, including reliance on the US for military technology and the ideological differences among member states [14]. - The report notes that the conflict has led to a gradual formation of a new coexistence structure between Russia and Europe, with Germany and Russia being central to European security issues [14][15]. Section 2: Defense Spending - The report indicates that from 2014 to 2018, 35% of European weapon imports came from the US, which increased to 55% from 2019 to 2023, highlighting the deep military ties between Europe and the US [14]. - Countries like France, Germany, and the Netherlands are expected to bear the primary costs of the rearmament goals, while Southern European countries with high debt levels may have limited participation [14][15]. Section 3: Political Dynamics - The US Congress passed a short-term spending bill to avoid a government shutdown, reallocating funds from non-defense areas to military spending, which reflects ongoing political complexities within the US [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 21.22 CNY, reflecting a 30% premium over the average PE of comparable companies [4][9]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a projected increase in operating income from 29.14 billion CNY in 2023 to 56.52 billion CNY in 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3% [6][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise significantly, from 5.65 billion CNY in 2023 to 13.58 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a robust growth trajectory [6][9]. - The Inner Mongolia project is entering a ramp-up phase, with significant production capacity expected to enhance the company's earnings in 2025 [9][10]. - The company is also exploring new opportunities in Xinjiang, which could provide additional growth potential due to lower coal prices compared to other regions [9][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 29.14 billion CNY in 2023 to 44.33 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 34.4% [6]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from 6.79 billion CNY in 2023 to 12.04 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 53.8% [6]. - The company's gross margin is anticipated to improve from 30.4% in 2023 to 36.3% in 2025, driven by cost optimization from declining coal prices [6][9]. - The net profit margin is projected to rise from 19.4% in 2023 to 22.6% in 2025, indicating improved profitability [6][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 0.77 CNY in 2023 to 1.36 CNY in 2025 [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 21.22 CNY, reflecting a 30% premium over the average PE of comparable companies [4][9]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a projected increase in operating income from 29.14 billion CNY in 2023 to 56.52 billion CNY in 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3% [6][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise significantly, from 5.65 billion CNY in 2023 to 13.58 billion CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 57.8% in 2025 [6][9]. - The company's gross margin is projected to improve from 30.4% in 2023 to 37.6% in 2027, driven by cost optimization from declining coal prices [6][9]. - The Inner Mongolia project is progressing well, with a total capacity of 520,000 tons per year expected to be achieved, positioning the company as a leader in the domestic coal-to-olefins industry [9][10]. - The Xinjiang project is anticipated to provide additional growth opportunities, leveraging lower coal prices in the region for cost advantages [9][10]. Financial Summary - The company's operating income for 2024 is projected at 32.98 billion CNY, a 13.2% increase year-on-year, with a further increase to 44.33 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a 34.4% growth [6][9]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 6.34 billion CNY, up 12.2% from the previous year, with a significant jump to 10.00 billion CNY in 2025 [6][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 0.77 CNY in 2023 to 1.85 CNY in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [6][9]. - The company's net profit margin is projected to improve from 19.4% in 2023 to 24.0% in 2027, showcasing enhanced operational efficiency [6][9].

| 杨震 | 021-63325888*6090 | | --- | --- | | | yangzhen@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520060002 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BSW113 | | 刘嘉倩 | liujiaqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524080001 | 建议关注：（1）工程机械：三一重工(600031，未评级)、中联重科(000157，买入)、恒立液压 (601100，未评级)、建设机械(600984，未评级)、艾迪精密(603638，未评级)；（2）工业设备： 杭叉集团(603298，未评级)、安徽合力(600761，买入)、海天精工(601882，增持)、纽威数控 (688697，未评级)、科德数控(688305，未评级)、秦川机床(000837，未评级)、伊之密(300415， 买入)、埃斯顿(002747，未评级)；（3）物流自动化：音飞储存(603066，未评级)、诺力股份 (603611，未评级)、中集车辆(301039，未评级)；（4）能源装备：先导智能(300450，未评级 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (00700) and NetEase-S (09999), while suggesting "Hold" for Perfect World (002624) and other companies remain un-rated [4][12]. Core Insights - The gaming industry is expected to experience a dual uplift in fundamentals and valuations due to improved policy environments and the innovative application of AI in gaming [4][8]. - Significant events in the gaming sector include the launch of AI-native games and government initiatives aimed at boosting cultural integration and consumption in the entertainment industry [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the recent catalysts in the gaming market, including the unveiling of AI-native games and supportive government policies aimed at enhancing the cultural and economic landscape of the gaming industry [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on gaming companies with rich new product pipelines and active AI applications, including Tencent Holdings, NetEase-S, and others [4][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in transforming game development and user experience, marking a new phase of efficiency in the industry [8]. Recent Developments - Key developments include the introduction of AI-native games that utilize natural language processing and generative AI for dynamic storytelling, enhancing player immersion [8]. - The government's action plan aims to integrate traditional culture into digital products and support the development of original IPs, which is expected to drive growth in the gaming sector [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the real estate industry in China [4]. Core Insights - The "small spring" in the real estate market has seen a slowdown in growth rates after an initial surge post-Chinese New Year, with new home sales experiencing fluctuations [7][40]. - National and local policies are being implemented to stabilize the market, including financial support measures and adjustments to home purchase regulations [12][14]. - The report anticipates that improved land supply quality and housing design standards will support demand for upgraded residential properties [40]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 11th week, the real estate index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices, with a relative return of -1.0% [10][11]. - The CSI 300 index closed at 4006.56 with a weekly increase of 1.6%, while the real estate index (Shenwan) closed at 2316.60 with a weekly increase of 0.6% [10][11]. Sales Data - New home sales in 44 major cities reached 18,000 units in the 11th week, a 13.7% increase from the previous week, while second-hand home sales in 21 major cities reached 23,000 units, a 9.1% increase [14]. - Inventory levels increased, with 830,000 units available across 18 major cities, reflecting a 9.4% rise from the previous week [18]. Policy Developments - National policies include the expansion of financing coordination mechanisms and local initiatives such as reduced down payment ratios and tax adjustments in cities like Suzhou and Ningbo [12][14]. - The report highlights ongoing efforts to enhance housing quality and support flexible employment participation in housing funds [12][14]. Company Announcements - Key companies such as Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou are recommended for investment, while others like China Overseas Land and New City Holdings are suggested for monitoring [40]. - Recent announcements from various companies indicate mixed performance, with some reporting declines in sales and others maintaining stable operations [34][36][38].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates continued growth in the penetration rate of down products, driven by consumer demand for quality-price ratio products and a better quality of life [4][43] - The report highlights the strong growth potential of the down products sector, particularly in the downstream apparel and home textile industries, recommending several leading companies for investment [4][43] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The down products sector is experiencing significant growth, with increasing market penetration and high price levels compared to spring and summer products [8] - The domestic down apparel production reached approximately 120 million pieces in 2022, with the company supplying about 12% of the theoretical market demand [7][8] Company Analysis - The company, Guqi Down Material, is a leading manufacturer of down products, focusing on high-end markets with a strong market share and growth potential [7][8] - The company's revenue and net profit are projected to grow at a CAGR of 18% and 30% respectively from 2021 to 2024 [10] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2023 is expected to be 830 million, with a year-on-year growth of 24% [12] - The gross profit margin has shown fluctuations, primarily influenced by market price changes and product quality [10] Supply Chain Analysis - The upstream supply of down materials is stable due to China's dominance in duck and goose farming, ensuring a steady supply of raw materials [25][28] - The industry is characterized by high concentration, with many small and low-standard processing plants being phased out due to increased environmental regulations [29] Market Potential - The down apparel market in China has significant growth potential, with a current penetration rate of less than 10%, much lower than in Europe and Japan [33][37] - The average selling price of down jackets has increased from 489 yuan in 2013 to 656 yuan in 2020, indicating a trend of rising consumer spending [37][38] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in Semir Apparel (002563), Hailan Home (600398), Bosideng (03998), and others, indicating strong growth prospects in the down products segment [4][43]