固定收益 | 动态跟踪 波动行情中有韧性，继续下沉挖掘 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 | 报告发布日期 | | --- | 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 03 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 建议在 3Y 左右做下沉挖掘：固定收益市场 | 2025-05-27 | | --- | --- | | 周观察 | | | 存单利率重回下行时间点或早于预期：固 | 2025-05-26 | | 定收益市场周观察 | | | 降准是对债市行情的确认还是催化？ | 2025-05-22 | 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。 ...

有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 美债危机叠加关税冲击，关注黄金板块的 投资机会 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 22 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓；美国通胀增速放缓；原材料价格波动 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 03 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | 积极关注稀土等战略金属板块的投资机 | 2025-05-18 | | --- | --- | | 会：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 | | | 20 周） | | | 铁矿价格出现明显松动，继续关注钢铁板 | 2025-05-11 | | 块的投资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观点 | | | （2025 年第 19 周） | | | 铁矿价格出现明显松动，积极关注钢铁板 | 2025-04-27 | | 块的投资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观点 | | | （2025 年第 17 周） | | 有关分析师的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo with a target price of $135.58 per ADS [5][12]. Core Views - The Q1 performance of Pinduoduo fell short of expectations, with revenue of CNY 956.7 billion, a year-over-year increase of 10.2%, but below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of CNY 1,016.0 billion [9]. - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 was CNY 169.2 billion, a significant decline of 44.7% year-over-year, also missing the consensus estimate of CNY 278.8 billion [9]. - The report highlights that while advertising revenue showed good performance, commission income was under pressure due to increased merchant support policies and adjustments in the Temu business [9]. Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for Pinduoduo are adjusted to CNY 4,403 billion, CNY 4,883 billion, and CNY 5,250 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][11]. - Non-GAAP net profit estimates are revised to CNY 1,072 billion, CNY 1,317 billion, and CNY 1,499 billion for the same years [3][11]. - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the main e-commerce platform's value at $143.9 billion, the Duoduo grocery business at $5.9 billion, and the Temu business at $42.7 billion [12][14]. Key Financial Metrics - For 2025, the expected operating revenue is CNY 440,349 million, with a year-over-year growth of 12% [10]. - The projected operating profit for 2025 is CNY 112,152 million, reflecting a 3% increase from the previous year [10]. - The report anticipates a gross margin of 61.1% and a net margin of 22.1% for 2025 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant growth with a focus on global expansion, particularly through its Galaxy series [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.36, 1.54, and 1.94 RMB respectively, with a target price set at 20.40 RMB or 22.26 HKD, based on a 15x PE ratio [2] Financial Information - Revenue is projected to grow from 179,204 million RMB in 2023 to 424,141 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18% [4] - Operating profit is expected to increase significantly from 3,806 million RMB in 2023 to 18,417 million RMB in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 100.8% in 2024 [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 5,308 million RMB in 2023 to 19,553 million RMB in 2027, despite a projected decline in 2025 [4] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 15.3% in 2023 to 16.7% in 2027 [4] - The net profit margin is projected to stabilize around 4.5% to 4.6% from 2025 to 2027 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to increase from 6.6% in 2023 to 13.8% in 2027 [4] Sales Performance - In May 2025, the company’s total sales reached 235,200 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 46.4% [9] - The Galaxy series saw a remarkable sales increase of 273.2% year-on-year in May 2025, with 101,800 units sold [9] - The company is expanding its international presence, with plans to enter new markets in Southeast Asia and Europe [9]

造纸轻工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 本周文化纸价格下跌，包装纸价格上涨 ——造纸产业链数据每周速递（2025/05/30） 核心观点 ⚫ 本周轻工制造行业指数上涨 0.14%，跑赢大盘 1.23pct；造纸子板块下跌 0.52%， 跑赢大盘 0.57pct。本周沪深 300 指数下跌 1.08%，轻工制造(申万)指数上涨 0.14%，跑赢大盘 1.23pct，在 28 个申万一级行业中位列第 15 位；二级行业中，造 纸子板块下跌 0.52%，跑赢大盘 0.57pct。本周轻工四大子板块按涨幅由大到小分别 为文娱用品、包装印刷、造纸和家具板块，分别上涨 1.87%、1.46%、-0.52%、- 1.08%。 产业链数据跟踪 投资建议与投资标的 | 近期木浆系纸品价格下行：——造纸产业 | 2025-05-18 | | --- | --- | | 链数据每周速递（2025/05/16） | | | 本周木浆系纸品价格下跌：——造纸产业 | 2025-05-11 | | 链数据每周速递（2025/05/11） | | | 本周成品纸价格下跌：——造纸产业链数 | 2025-05-05 | | 据每周速递（202 ...

投资策略 | 定期报告 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 02 日 | 张书铭 | 021-63325888*5152 | | --- | --- | | 17 | zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 | | 张志鹏 | zhangzhipeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522020002 | | 进入政策观察期：——策略周报 0525 | 2025-05-25 | | --- | --- | | 关税降级提振市场风险偏好：——策略周 | 2025-05-19 | | 报 0518 | | | 逆周期政策提振市场信心：——策略周报 | 2025-05-12 | | 0512 | | | 物来顺应：——策略周报 0505 | 2025-05-06 | | 以稳为主：——策略周报 0428 | 2025-04-28 | | 缺乏稳定一致预期：——策略周报 0421 | 2025-04-20 | | 市场或仍将保持高波动：——策略周报 | 2025-04-17 | | 0414 | | ...

因子表现监控 公募基金指数增强产品表现跟踪 风险提示 量化模型失效风险、 市场极端环境冲击。 杨怡玲 yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 金融工程 | 动态跟踪 研究结论 Growth 风格登顶，EPTTM 一年分位点因 子表现出色 风格表现监控 ——东方因子周报 本周市场正收益风格集中在 Growth 风格上，负收益风格表现在 Size 风格上。 EPTTM 一年分位点是中证全指成分股中，本周表现最好的因子。 | Neural ODE：时序动力系统重构下深度学 | 2025-05-27 | | --- | --- | | 习因子挖掘模型：——因子选股系列之一 | | | 一六 | | | 广发中证全指电力公用事业 ETF 投资价值 | 2025-05-20 | | 分析：——FOF 系列研究之七十五 | | | DFQ-diversify：解决分布外泛化问题的自 | 2025-05-07 | | 监督领域识别与对抗解耦模型：——因子 | | | 选股系列之一一五 | | | FOF 专业买手偏好哪些基金之 2025Q1 季 | 2025-04- ...

尊界 S800 上市 48 小时大定超 2100 辆， 继续关注华为链相关公司 ——汽车行业周报（0526-0601） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 从投资策略上看，继续关注华为链整车及汽零，2025 年具备竞争力的自主品牌及在智驾 技术方面领先的新势力企业将继续扩大市场份额；预计部分央国企通过自身改革及加强 对外合作等，实现困境反转。建议持续关注部分汽车行业央国企及人形机器人链、华为 产业链、小米产业链、T 链、智驾产业链公司。 建议关注：上汽集团、江淮汽车、比亚迪、长安汽车、中国重汽、广汽集团、宇通客 车；新泉股份、银轮股份、岱美股份、拓普集团、嵘泰股份、经纬恒润、爱柯迪、沪光 股份、保隆科技、精锻科技、贝斯特、瑞鹄模具、上声电子、双林股份、华阳集团、华 域汽车、伯特利、德赛西威、科博达、星宇股份、三花智控、继峰股份、上海沿浦、福 耀玻璃、浙江荣泰等。 风险提示 宏观经济下行影响汽车需求、上游原材料价格波动影响、车企价格战压力。 汽车与零部件行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 汽车与零部件行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 02 日 中性（维持） | 姜雪晴 | jiangxue ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 8.60 CNY based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025 [2][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in profitability due to the full production of the Guangxi base, falling coal prices, and recovery in industry conditions. Earnings per share are projected to be 0.43 CNY in 2025 and 0.60 CNY in 2026 and 2027 [2][12]. - The Guangxi integrated base is anticipated to significantly enhance the company's competitiveness and profitability stability upon full operation, marking a new development phase for the company [9][39]. - The company is initiating a second round of asset securitization, with plans to acquire a 60% stake in San Aifu, which is expected to lead to the injection of high-quality chemical assets into the listed company [13][49]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a long history and has evolved into a large chemical group with operations in coal chemical, carbon three, tires, and chemical services across multiple bases in China and Thailand [12][32]. Guangxi Base Development - The Guangxi integrated base, covering approximately 8,000 acres with a total planned investment of about 90 billion CNY, is divided into three phases, with the first two phases already operational and the third phase expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [39][40]. - The base will enable the company to achieve a high level of integration across its coal chemical, carbon three, and chlor-alkali businesses, enhancing overall competitiveness [39][41]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 40.86 billion CNY in 2023 to 47.97 billion CNY in 2027, with a slight decline in 2025 due to market conditions [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 861 million CNY in 2023 to 1.28 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting a recovery in profitability [4]. Market Position and Valuation - The company has been undervalued with a long-term price-to-book ratio below 1, but the upcoming asset injections and improved market conditions are expected to drive a valuation recovery [9][49]. - The company’s strategic location in Guangxi provides significant advantages in terms of logistics and market access, particularly to the rapidly growing markets in Southeast Asia and South China [45][46].

计算机行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 香港《稳定币条例》正式成为法例，行业 生态加速构建 核心观点 事件： 2025 年 5 月 21 日，香港立法会正式通过《稳定币条例草案》（以下简称《草 案》），为稳定币提供了完整的监管框架；5 月 30 日，香港特别行政区政府在宪报刊 登《稳定币条例》，这意味着《稳定币条例》正式成为法例。 投资建议与投资标的 我们认为，香港通过《稳定币条例》并正式成为法例，将对稳定币相关产业链公司 带来更多的投资者关注和未来业务发展机遇，建议关注有望参与其中的数字技术提供 者、支付服务商及积极探索现实世界资产代币化(RWA)的企业。 支付领域，建议关注新大陆(000997，未评级)、新国都(300130，未评级)、拉卡拉 (300773，未评级)。 数字技术领域，建议关注京北方(002987，未评级)、四方精创(300468，未评级)、宇 信科技(300674，未评级)、神州信息(000555，增持)、天阳科技(300872，未评级)。 RWA 相关企业，建议关注朗新集团(300682，买入)。 风险提示 稳定币行业发展不及预期；行业竞争过于激烈风险。 国家/地区 中国 行业 计算机行业 ...