Group 1: Report Core View - The bond market experienced a "roller coaster" in Q1 2025, with interest rates rising unexpectedly and then falling from late March. Currently, interest rates have no clear direction and may continue to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for new catalysts from the fundamentals or the central bank [6][12][13] - The subsequent trend of the capital market remains uncertain. Historically, the capital interest rates tend to fluctuate upward from May to June, and the central bank's over - issuance of MLF has dampened market expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [6][12] - In the credit bond market, the net financing in the week of April 21 - 27 exceeded 100 billion yuan. The issuance cost of high - grade bonds increased, and the valuation of credit bonds rose slightly, with spreads widening [6][16][17] - In the convertible bond market, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose last week. It is optimistic about the allocation demand for convertible bonds this year, especially with the decrease in the number of outstanding convertible bonds [6][19] Group 2: Fixed Income Market Observation and Thinking 2.1 Interest - rate Bonds - The bond market is waiting for new catalysts. Interest rates may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to hold long - duration interest - rate bonds while maintaining liquidity [6][12][13] 2.2 Credit Bonds - In the week of April 21 - 27, the primary issuance of credit bonds was 546.5 billion yuan, a 28% increase from the previous week. The total repayment was 430.6 billion yuan, also a 28% increase. The net financing reached 115.9 billion yuan. The issuance cost of high - grade bonds increased, and the valuation and spreads of credit bonds showed certain changes [16][17][78] 2.3 Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market is likely to fluctuate within a range. It is advisable to buy on dips. The convertible bond market followed the rise of the equity market last week, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index rising 0.90%. It is optimistic about the allocation demand for convertible bonds this year [18][19] 2.4 This Week's Attention and Important Data Release - This week, important data to be released include China's official manufacturing PMI for April, the US ADP employment data for April, and the eurozone's economic sentiment index for April [20][21] 2.5 This Week's Estimated Supply of Interest - rate Bonds - This week, the estimated issuance of interest - rate bonds is 233.1 billion yuan, which is at a relatively low level compared to the same period. There are no plans to issue treasury bonds. The planned issuance of local bonds is 93.1 billion yuan, and the estimated actual issuance of policy - financial bonds is about 140 billion yuan [22] Group 3: Interest - rate Bond Review and Outlook 3.1 Central Bank's Injection and Capital Market Conditions - The central bank maintained a net injection through reverse repurchase. The total injection through reverse repurchase was 882 billion yuan, and the MLF was renewed with an unexpected 600 billion yuan. The total net injection in the open - market operations was 774 billion yuan. The trading volume in the capital market remained high, and the prices decreased [26][27] 3.2 The Bond Market Continues to Swing Around the Expectation of Loose Monetary Policy - Recent central bank actions such as the unchanged LPR, the over - issuance of MLF, and the central bank's statements have led to fluctuations in bond market interest rates, which mainly increased. On April 25, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds increased compared to the previous week [38] Group 4: High - frequency Data - On the production side, most of the operating rates increased. On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car wholesale and retail sales remained positive, while land and property sales showed different trends. In terms of prices, crude oil prices declined, copper and aluminum prices rose, and coal prices were divided [50][51] Group 5: Credit Bond Review 5.1 Negative Information Monitoring - From April 21 to 27, 2025, there were bond defaults and overdue events, and some companies had their ratings or outlooks downgraded or faced other negative events [77][78] 5.2 Primary Issuance - The primary issuance of credit bonds increased, and the net financing exceeded 100 billion yuan. The issuance cost of high - grade bonds increased, and there were 14 bonds whose issuance was cancelled or postponed [78][79] 5.3 Secondary Trading - The valuation of credit bonds rose slightly, and the spreads widened. The turnover rate decreased slightly, and most of the top - ten turnover bonds were issued by central and state - owned enterprises. The number of high - discount bonds decreased slightly, and most of them were real - estate enterprise bonds [17][82][92]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 21.62 yuan, based on a valuation of 160 billion yuan [2][5][11]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a decline in mid-range and high-end liquor sales, leading to a downward adjustment in revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2025-2026. The projected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.27, 0.36, and 0.45 yuan respectively [2][11]. - The company’s low-end liquor segment is contributing to the growth of its overall liquor sales, with expansion into external markets supplementing revenue [10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a total revenue of 10,593 million yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year decline of 9.3%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9,126 million, 8,662 million, 8,897 million, and 9,152 million yuan respectively, reflecting a continued decline in 2024 and a slight recovery thereafter [4][10]. - The gross profit margin improved to 36.03% in 2024, up by 4.23 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin reached 2.53%, an increase of 5.32 percentage points [10]. - The company’s net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is projected at 231 million yuan, a significant increase of 178.2% compared to the previous year [4][10]. Product Segment Performance - In 2024, the liquor business generated 70.41 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%. The sales volume for liquor reached 369,400 kiloliters, with revenue contributions from high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor at 9.7 billion, 10.9 billion, and 49.7 billion yuan respectively [10]. - The company’s pork business, however, saw a revenue decline of 29.64% in 2024, totaling 16.90 billion yuan, with a significant drop in sales volume [10]. Market and Regional Insights - The company’s revenue from the Beijing region decreased by 35.75% in 2024, while revenue from external regions increased by 1.25%, indicating successful market expansion efforts outside of Beijing [10]. Valuation Assumptions - The report utilizes a Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) valuation method, with key parameters including a tax rate of 25%, a perpetual growth rate of 3%, and a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.37% [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 53.01 CNY [3][8] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve strong performance in 2025, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 1.11 CNY, 1.44 CNY, and 1.85 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][8] - The company reported a revenue of 2.97 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 342 million CNY, up 31.7% year-on-year [7] - The online channel transformation has shown positive results, with online revenue reaching 2.54 billion CNY in 2024, accounting for 86% of total revenue, and growing by 35.8% year-on-year [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: 3.78 billion CNY in 2025, 4.67 billion CNY in 2026, and 5.66 billion CNY in 2027, with respective growth rates of 27.2%, 23.6%, and 21.3% [2][11] - The gross profit margin is expected to increase to 74.8% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 11.8% [2][11] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise to 12.4% in 2025 and 16.4% in 2027 [2][11] Brand and Product Performance - The main brand, Marubi, achieved a revenue of 2.06 billion CNY in 2024, growing by 31.69%, while the PL brand, Lianhuo, saw a revenue increase of 40.72% to 905 million CNY [7] - Revenue growth rates for product categories in 2024 were as follows: eye care at 61%, skincare at 22%, cleansing at 9%, and makeup at 40% [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully implemented a three-year online and offline channel strategy, which has stabilized market order and pricing systems [7] - The rebranding to "Marubi Biotechnology" signifies a strategic shift from traditional beauty products to biotechnology-based beauty solutions [7]

房地产行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 地产政策仍定位于托底和稳信心 核心观点 投资建议与投资标 ⚫ 4 月 25 日中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议指出 "加力实施城市更新行动，有力有序推进城中村和危旧房改造。"2024 年 10 月住 建部提出通过货币化安置房等方式新增实施 100 万套城中村改造、危旧房改造，并 于今年两会上表示将继续扩大规模。多城已出台放票安置政策，我们认为年内旧改 有望继续放量。针对部分项目"征收方案扎实"和"项目资金总体平衡"之间的矛 盾，不排除未来中央财政补贴资金缺口以及央行投放 PSL 以支持城中村改造。"加 快构建房地产发展新模式，加大高品质住房供给。"今年"好房子"首次被写入 《政府工作报告》，3 月底，住建部发布国家标准《住宅项目规范》。虽然新房市 场整体成交同比仍有下行压力，但在部分高能级城市，核心区域质量与得房率双高 楼盘陆续推出，释放改善型住房需求，在一定程度上给予新房销售支撑。未来随着 更多四代宅的推出，新房销售有望开始企稳。"优化存量商品房收购政策。"2024 年 10 月，财政部提出专项债收储商品房用作保障性住房；2025 年 3 月， ...

投资策略 | 定期报告 以稳为主 ——策略周报 0428 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 28 日 | 张书铭 | 021-63325888*5152 | | --- | --- | | 17 | zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 | | 张志鹏 | zhangzhipeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522020002 | | 段怡芊 | duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 | | 薛俊 | 021-63325888*6005 | | | xuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | | 缺乏稳定一致预期：——策略周报 0421 | 2025-04-20 | | --- | --- | | 市场或仍将保持高波动：——策略周报 | 2025-04-17 | | 0414 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the Huawei supply chain and companies with strong Q1 performance, predicting that competitive domestic brands and new forces in intelligent driving technology will continue to expand market share by 2025 [3][14] - The report highlights the significant growth in Q1 earnings for several automotive companies, with BYD's revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items increasing by 36.3%, 100.4%, and 117.8% year-on-year, respectively [12] - The report notes that Tesla's Q1 performance was under pressure, with a 9.2% year-on-year decrease in revenue, and emphasizes the need to monitor new models and autonomous driving developments [13] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests continued attention to the Huawei supply chain, humanoid robot chain, and certain state-owned enterprises in the automotive sector, which are expected to reverse their current difficulties through reforms and external collaborations [3][14] - Recommended companies include SAIC Motor, JAC Motors, BYD, Changan Automobile, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, GAC Group, Yutong Bus, and several parts manufacturers such as Newquay, Silver Wheel, and Top Group [3][15] Market Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 5.0%, ranking second among 29 primary industries [17] - The automotive parts sector saw a significant increase of 6.72%, while other segments also reported positive returns [17] Sales Tracking - In April 2025, the wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 993,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 14%, while retail sales were 897,000 units, also up 12% year-on-year [28] - The report indicates that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 46.8% in March, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.2 percentage points [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow at a rate of 5.5%/7.9%/8.5% for the years 2025/2026/2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.05/1.13/1.23 yuan and BVPS of 11.85/12.70/13.62 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to a PB of 0.57X/0.53X/0.50X for the years 2025/2026/2027. Given the strong financing demand in the region, a 10% valuation premium is maintained compared to comparable companies, leading to a reasonable value of 7.6 yuan per share [3][5] Financial Information Summary - For the year 2023, the company reported operating income of 27,956 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%. The operating profit was 12,194 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10,902 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1% [4] - The projected operating income for 2025 is 28,724 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%. The operating profit is expected to reach 13,732 million yuan, growing by 6.9% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 12,151 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.5% [4] - The company’s total assets and loan amounts are expected to grow by 8% and 6.8% year-on-year respectively by the end of Q1 2025, with a net increase in loans of 30.17 billion yuan, accounting for 80.3% of the total net increase for the year [9] Performance Metrics - The net interest income showed a year-on-year growth of 5.6% as of Q1 2025, supported by a stable net interest margin of 1.61% [9] - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.17% as of Q1 2025, showing a slight improvement compared to the end of 2024 [9] - The company’s capital adequacy ratio is projected to be 15.99% for 2023, increasing to 18.96% by 2027 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore prices have shown significant loosening, suggesting a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the steel sector. The report indicates that after three years of adjustment, the current position of the steel sector offers high cost-effectiveness, with leading enterprises showing improved profitability and stability [8][13]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - Iron ore prices are expected to decline as steel production peaks post-May Day, leading to potential profit squeezes for iron ore suppliers. The domestic demand-driven pricing in the steel sector is highlighted as a key factor [8][13]. Steel Sector - The weekly consumption of rebar decreased to 2.6 million tons, a significant drop of 5.07% week-on-week. The average price of rebar increased slightly by 1.34% to 3,323 CNY/ton, while cold-rolled prices fell by 1.54% to 3,812 CNY/ton [14][36]. - Total steel inventory decreased significantly, with a total of 1,083 million tons, down 3.68% week-on-week and 24.11% year-on-year [23]. - The profitability of rebar production has improved, with long-process rebar margins increasing by 25 CNY/ton and short-process margins rising by 350 CNY/ton [34][36]. Industrial Metals - The report notes a deepening negative value for copper TC/RC, with the average LME aluminum price rising by 3.63% to 2,412 USD/ton. The cost of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang decreased significantly by 16.22%, leading to a substantial profit increase [16][28]. Precious Metals - The report suggests that tariffs may boost demand for safe-haven assets and inflation expectations, with gold prices expected to continue rising. As of April 25, 2025, COMEX gold prices were reported at 3,330.2 USD/ounce, a slight decrease of 0.33% week-on-week [16][48]. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in China saw a significant year-on-year increase of 57.44% in February 2025, with prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate at 69,600 CNY/ton. Nickel and cobalt prices showed mixed trends, with nickel prices declining [15][39][48].

Group 1: ESG Overview - ESG is a crucial framework for assessing corporate sustainability and social responsibility, gaining significant attention from global investors and enterprises[10] - The implementation of ESG principles is vital for enhancing the competitiveness and sustainable development of Chinese enterprises[11] - Aligning ESG with China's development goals supports green and sustainable growth, fostering innovation and resource conservation[12] Group 2: Domestic ESG Developments - The first distributed "canal surface" photovoltaic project in Hainan has a total installed capacity of 59.9 MW, expected to generate approximately 100.75 million kWh annually, reducing carbon emissions by about 4.2 tons per year[8] - The first urban green certificate and green electricity carbon business service center was established in Hangzhou, providing public services related to green electricity and carbon neutrality[15] - Fujian's Zhangping City has successfully implemented a bamboo forest carbon sink project covering 12,590 acres, with a carbon sink volume of 54,551.21 tons registered[16] Group 3: International ESG Developments - Japan's JERA plans to acquire Belgium's largest offshore wind company for $1.7 billion to expand its renewable energy capacity[17] - Deutsche Bank's DWS was fined €25 million (approximately $27 million) for misleading ESG claims, highlighting the importance of transparency in ESG reporting[19] - Apple has reduced its global greenhouse gas emissions by over 60% compared to 2015 levels, moving closer to its goal of carbon neutrality by 2030[20] Group 4: Green Finance Initiatives - Guangzhou announced its first batch of 15 "2024 Green Finance Benchmark Demonstration Units," with green loan balances increasing by 26.4% year-on-year[23] - The Bank of Communications issued 300 billion yuan in green financial bonds, fully allocated to green industry projects as per the 2021 Green Bond Support Project Directory[24] - Industrial Bank also issued 300 billion yuan in green financial bonds, with a subscription rate of 2.38 times, supporting various green industry sectors[25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The revenue growth rate is impacted by the base effect, while the dividend payout ratio continues to rise [2][9] - The company is expected to experience a slight increase in net profit for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with projected growth rates of 0.3%, 1.8%, and 1.6% respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.65X for 2025, 0.62X for 2026, and 0.60X for 2027, indicating potential undervaluation [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 26,414 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 12,142 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 1.26 yuan, with projected EPS of 0.72 yuan for 2024 [4] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 1,392,214 million yuan in 2023 to 1,653,004 million yuan by 2027 [12] Profitability and Valuation Metrics - The report forecasts a decline in net interest income from 20,700 million yuan in 2023 to 19,675 million yuan in 2025 [12] - The average return on equity (ROE) is expected to decrease from 11.34% in 2023 to 9.31% by 2027 [12] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 6.86 in 2023 to 6.54 in 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation attractiveness [12] Dividend Policy - The dividend payout ratio is expected to increase from 33.1% to 33.9% in 2024, supported by strong core capital adequacy [9]