Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Add" [6] Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the transaction area of residential land in 100 cities increased by 2% year-on-year, while the average transaction floor price rose by 24% [1][4] - The top 50 real estate companies saw a 48% year-on-year increase in the value of newly acquired land reserves, totaling 521.3 billion yuan [2][82] - The core 30 cities experienced a 23% year-on-year increase in residential land transaction area and price [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand of Land/Residential Land in 100 Cities - In the first half of 2025, the total supply of land in 100 cities decreased by 12.9% year-on-year, while the transaction area decreased by 5.6% [11] - The supply of residential land in 100 cities decreased by 15% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 93.37 million square meters, up 2.2% year-on-year [20] 2. Transaction Prices of Land/Residential Land - The average transaction floor price for residential land in 100 cities increased by 24.2% year-on-year, reaching 7,479 yuan per square meter [57] - The average transaction floor price in first-tier cities was 38,817 yuan per square meter, up 35.5% year-on-year [67] 3. Acquisition of Land by Top 50 Real Estate Companies - The top 50 real estate companies acquired land worth 5,213 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 47.7% increase year-on-year [2][82] - The top three companies in terms of newly acquired land value were China Overseas Land & Investment (506 billion yuan), Poly Developments (502 billion yuan), and Greentown China (443 billion yuan) [91] 4. Transaction Situation of Residential Land in Core 30 Cities - In June 2025, the core 30 cities saw a 44% increase in residential land transaction area, with a total transaction area of 1,423 million square meters [97] - The overall premium rate for residential land transactions in the core 30 cities was 13.5%, up 8.4 percentage points year-on-year [4][101] 5. Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable leading real estate companies with high product reputation and continuous sales ranking improvement, such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Jinmao [111] - Consider companies with rich commercial real estate resources and strong brand competitiveness, such as China Resources Land and New City Holdings [112] - Look at the long-term development potential of the property service industry, recommending companies like China Merchants Jinling and Greentown Service [112]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 1.2-1.24 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 1.5%-4.7%. However, net profit is projected to increase to 90-113 million yuan, a growth of 55.2%-94.8% compared to 58 million yuan in the first half of 2024 [2][4]. - The company has implemented multi-dimensional operational adjustments, leading to gradual improvements in performance. The revenue decline has narrowed significantly compared to 2024, with same-store sales returning to positive growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to generate revenues of 2.715 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 10.8%. The net profit forecast for 2025 is 143 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 45.1% [5][10]. Operational Adjustments - The company has closed underperforming stores and improved employee incentives, resulting in a recovery of same-store sales. The management structure has been streamlined for quicker decision-making [3][4]. - A focus on enhancing the membership system has been established, which has led to increased average transaction values and customer retention rates [3][4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is pursuing brand rejuvenation and adjusting store formats to attract younger consumers. Plans include enhancing store displays and customer experience in key locations [3][4]. - New distribution channels are being developed to improve capacity utilization and operational efficiency, with a focus on supermarkets and convenience stores [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - The updated earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 are 0.07, 0.08, and 0.09 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 36, 30, and 25 times [4][10].

Group 1: Construction Materials - The central urban work conference emphasized urban renewal and improvement rather than large-scale demolition, focusing on meeting public needs and enhancing existing urban development [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission called for preventing low-level redundant construction and vicious competition, indicating a shift towards high-quality development in the low-altitude economy [1] Group 2: Machinery - Exports to North America continued to decline in June, but the engineering machinery category maintained a high level of prosperity, with excavators, tractors, and mining machinery showing year-on-year growth rates of 22%, 26%, and 23% respectively [2] - Recommendations include关注一拖股份 and 徐工机械 based on the strong performance in the engineering machinery sector [2] Group 3: Non-ferrous Metals - In Q2 2025, the holding ratio of non-ferrous metal heavy stocks increased to 4.3%, with significant increases in rare earths and minor metals [3] - Investment suggestions include 北方稀土 for rare earths, 金诚信 and 紫金矿业 for copper, and 中国宏桥 for aluminum [3] Group 4: Chemicals - The government is expected to promote the elimination of outdated capacity in the petrochemical industry, which could enhance industry competitiveness [4] - The current phase of evaluating the elimination of old chemical production capacity is anticipated to lead to a gradual optimization of supply [4] Group 5: Banking - 常熟银行 reported a 10.1% year-on-year increase in revenue to 6.06 billion yuan and a 13.5% increase in net profit to 1.97 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [7] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains low, and the provision coverage ratio is high, indicating strong resilience in earnings and profitability [7] Group 6: Internet Media - 哔哩哔哩 has significant potential for C-end paid user growth, with a focus on the commercialization of its advertising business and the launch of new gaming products [8] - The company is expected to maintain stable costs while projecting adjusted net profits of 2.15 billion yuan, 3.51 billion yuan, and 4.65 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [8] Group 7: Home Appliances - 海尔智家 is positioned as a leading global home appliance brand, with a notable upward trend in air conditioning operations for 2025 [9] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 21.5 billion yuan, 24.3 billion yuan, and 27.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of 11, 10, and 9 times respectively [9] Group 8: Electronics - 视源股份 continues to show revenue growth, although net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards to 1.048 billion yuan and 1.239 billion yuan respectively [10] - The long-term growth potential remains strong, with a projected net profit of 1.486 billion yuan for 2027 [10] Group 9: Skincare - 林清轩 has established itself as a leading high-end skincare brand in China, with its camellia oil facial essence ranked first in retail sales among all facial essence products for 11 consecutive years [6] - The brand is recognized as the only domestic brand among the top 15 high-end skincare brands in China, according to 灼识咨询 [6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company Core Insights - The company is a leader in the high-end domestic skincare market in China, focusing on anti-wrinkle and firming skincare products, with its flagship brand "Lin Qing Xuan" offering high-end skincare solutions based on natural camellia ingredients [3][8] - The market for skincare products in China is projected to reach CNY 688.6 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.8% from 2019 to 2024, and an expected CAGR of 8.6% from 2024 to 2029 [4][37] - The facial essence oil category, driven by the "oil-based skincare" trend, is expected to grow significantly, with a market size of CNY 5.3 billion in 2024 and a CAGR of 42.8% from 2019 to 2024 [4][37] - The company has seen substantial revenue growth, with a projected revenue of CNY 1.21 billion in 2024, representing a 50.3% year-on-year increase [18] Company Overview - The company has established itself as a rare high-end domestic skincare brand, with its camellia essence oil being the top-selling product in the facial essence oil category for 11 consecutive years [3][8] - The company has a balanced distribution of online and offline channels, with online sales growing significantly, contributing to overall revenue growth [5][25] - The company has a strong presence in the high-end anti-wrinkle skincare market, ranking first among domestic brands and being the only domestic brand in the top ten [3][8] Market Trends - The demand for anti-wrinkle and firming skincare products is high, with a projected market size of CNY 119.8 billion in 2024 and a CAGR of 15.0% from 2019 to 2024 [49] - The high-end skincare segment is expected to grow faster than the mass market, with a projected CAGR of 8.9% from 2019 to 2024 [43] Financial Performance - The company's gross margin has been consistently high, with projections of 82.5% in 2024, and a significant improvement in net profit margin from -0.9% in 2022 to 15.4% in 2024 [88] - The company has achieved a turnaround in profitability, with a net profit of CNY 187 million in 2024, representing a 121.1% year-on-year increase [18][88] Distribution Channels - The company has expanded its offline presence, with a total of 506 stores by the end of 2024, primarily located in shopping malls [78] - Online sales have become the dominant revenue source, accounting for 59.1% of total revenue in 2024, with significant growth in both direct sales and sales through online retailers [25][74] Product Strategy - The company's primary product category is facial essence oil, which has seen a revenue increase from CNY 218 million in 2022 to CNY 448 million in 2024, with a growing market share [66][70] - The company has successfully positioned its camellia essence oil as a leading product in the market, with cumulative sales exceeding 30 million bottles by the end of 2024 [66]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and engineering sector and a "Buy" rating for non-metallic building materials [5]. Core Insights - The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized urban renewal and transformation rather than large-scale demolition, focusing on improving existing urban infrastructure and addressing public needs [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) highlighted the need to prevent inefficient and redundant construction in the low-altitude economy, advocating for a more orderly and high-quality development approach [2]. - The public REITs market remained stable, with the CSI REITs (Total Return) Index slightly increasing by 0.06% to 1104.55, and a year-to-date increase of 14.12% [3]. Summary by Sections Urban Development - The focus is on upgrading existing urban areas and enhancing quality rather than new large-scale projects, with a strong demand for renovation in first-tier cities [1]. - The emphasis on safety and resilience in urban infrastructure, including the upgrade of old pipelines and disaster prevention measures, is crucial for future urban planning [1]. Low-Altitude Economy - The NDRC's meeting stressed the importance of developing the low-altitude economy based on local conditions, avoiding blind imitation, and preventing low-end competition [2]. - The lack of a unified regulatory framework and stable business models in the low-altitude economy may slow down infrastructure development [2]. Public REITs Market - The public REITs market is expected to see concentrated trading of Q2 performance reports, with products showing strong operational performance likely to rebound slightly [3]. - Investment recommendations include companies like Honglu Steel Structure and China Construction, which are expected to benefit from market recovery and operational improvements [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haier Smart Home (600690.SH) with a current price of 26.05 CNY and a target price of 35.54 CNY [1]. Core Views - Haier Smart Home is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for air conditioning in Europe due to climate change, with the company holding significant market shares in Eastern and Western Europe [5][6]. - The report highlights that the air conditioning penetration rate in Europe is significantly lower than in other major economies, indicating substantial growth potential [5]. - The extreme heat conditions in Europe are expected to further drive the demand for air conditioning, with projections showing a doubling of air conditioning units in the EU by 2050 [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report notes that Haier's air conditioning business is experiencing significant growth, particularly in Eastern Europe where it holds a 34% market share, and 9% in Western Europe, ranking first and second respectively [6]. - The penetration rates for air conditioning in Western and Eastern Europe have increased by 8 and 11 percentage points compared to 2019 [5]. Financial Forecasts - The report projects Haier Smart Home's net profit for 2025 to be 21.5 billion CNY, with a corresponding PE ratio of 11 [7]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 261.43 billion CNY in 2023 to 307.31 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 7.46% [8]. Competitive Positioning - Haier's competitive advantage in Europe is attributed to its "three-in-one" strategy of localized R&D, manufacturing, and marketing, which has allowed it to adapt products to local needs effectively [6]. - The company has established a strong service network in Russia, with 196 service centers across more than 120 cities [6]. Industry Trends - The report emphasizes that the air conditioning market in Europe is underpenetrated compared to China (97%), the US (92%), and Japan (96%), suggesting a significant opportunity for growth [5][10]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that the number of air conditioning units in the EU will increase to 275 million by 2050, more than double the number in 2019 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bilibili (BILI.O) [4][6] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 7.33 billion RMB in Q2 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 19.7%. The revenue breakdown by business segment includes gaming at 1.61 billion RMB (yoy +60%), VAS at 2.82 billion RMB (yoy +10%), advertising at 2.42 billion RMB (yoy +19%), and e-commerce at 480 million RMB (yoy -8%) [1] - The report highlights the strengthening of advertising infrastructure through AI, including the reconstruction of recommendation algorithms and creative generation, which is expected to enhance efficiency and effectiveness in advertising [3] - The gaming segment is anticipated to see significant growth with the launch of new games and updates, which are expected to drive user engagement and monetization [2] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenue for Bilibili is expected to grow from 22.53 billion RMB in 2023 to 30.24 billion RMB in 2025, with a growth rate of 12.7% in 2025 [5][10] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to improve from a loss of 3.41 billion RMB in 2023 to a profit of 2.15 billion RMB in 2025 [5][10] Business Segment Performance - The gaming business is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with notable titles like "FGO" and "碧蓝航线" driving user growth and revenue [2] - Advertising revenue is projected to grow due to enhanced AI capabilities, with an expected ROI achievement rate exceeding 75% in 2024 [3] Financial Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including expected EPS growth from -11.46 RMB in 2023 to 1.91 RMB in 2025 [5][10] - The P/S ratio is projected to decrease from 3.3 in 2023 to 2.5 in 2025, indicating a potential increase in valuation attractiveness [5][10]

——石化化工反内卷稳增长系列之四 石油化工/基础化工 增持（维持） 7 月 18 日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍 2025 年上半年工业和 信息化发展情况。工业和信息化部总工程师谢少锋表示，将实施新一轮钢铁、有 色金属、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案，推动重点行业着力调结构、 优供给、淘汰落后产能，具体工作方案将在近期陆续发布。 要点 点评： 事件： 2025 年 7 月 22 日 行业研究 老旧装置退出有望改善炼油景气度，炼化产业转型加速 炼油老旧装置占比较高，老旧产能淘汰助力行业竞争力提升 我国炼油行业起步较早，1958 年兰州石化投产填补了我国石油化工行业空 白，改革开放后炼油行业进入快速发展期，至 2000 年我国炼油能力为 3.6 亿吨， 2005 年我国原油加工量为 2.86 亿吨，为 2024 年原油加工量的 40%。炼油行业 发展过程中产生了大量建设历史较久老旧装置，根据中国石化 2001 年披露的 A 股招股说明书，2000 年中国石化拥有原油一次加工能力 1.3 亿吨，相当于公司 2024 年炼能的 44%，拥有 13 家炼能超过 500 万吨的炼厂和茂名、镇海、齐鲁、 ...

Investment Rating - The mechanical industry is rated as "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a continued decline in U.S. exports in June, while the engineering machinery category remains in a high prosperity state [1] - U.S. retail sales showed a significant rebound in June, with a month-on-month growth rate of +0.6%, exceeding market expectations [3] - The report indicates that tariffs and other factors have negatively impacted exports to North America, particularly for electric tools and lawn mowers [4][10] Summary by Sections Consumer Goods - Electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers are primarily targeted at high-end consumers in Europe and the U.S. [3] - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers were 5%, -6%, and 47% respectively [4] - Exports to North America for electric tools and lawn mowers showed a year-on-year decline of -7% and -4% respectively [4] - Recommendations include关注泉峰控股, 巨星科技, 创科实业, and 格力博 [10] Capital Goods - Industrial - The report notes that the global manufacturing PMI has slightly increased to 49.5%, with Asia leading at 50.7% [10] - Cumulative export growth rates for forklifts, machine tools, and industrial sewing machines in the first half of 2025 were -1%, +12%, and +20% respectively [8] - Recommendations include关注安徽合力, 杭叉集团, 纽威数控, 科德数控, 杰克股份, and 宏华数科 [10] Capital Goods - Engineering Machinery - Cumulative export growth rates for major engineering machinery, excavators, tractors, and mining machinery in the first half of 2025 were 11%, 22%, 26%, and 23% respectively [9][11] - The report emphasizes strong growth in exports to Africa, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 65% [5] - Recommendations include关注一拖股份, 徐工机械, 中联重科 (A/H), 三一重工, 柳工, and 恒立液压 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating a projected investment return that exceeds the market benchmark index by 5% to 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the holdings of actively managed equity funds in the non-ferrous metals sector increased, with a notable rise in rare earth and minor metals [1][2]. - The total market value of heavy holdings in the non-ferrous metals sector reached approximately 70.4 billion yuan, representing 4.29% of the total heavy holdings of funds, an increase from 4.22% in Q1 2025 [1]. - The top ten heavy holdings are concentrated in copper, gold, and aluminum, with Zijin Mining remaining the largest holding at 22.8 billion yuan [1]. Summary by Sections Fund Holdings - The increase in holdings is primarily in rare earth and minor metals, with significant increases in stocks such as Guangsheng Nonferrous (largest increase in rare earth), Haotong Technology (platinum, palladium, rhodium recovery), and others [2]. - Conversely, reductions in holdings were noted in aluminum, gold, and certain processing stocks, with the largest decrease in Western Materials (titanium) [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that supply constraints will support price increases for rare earths, copper, and aluminum, while precious metals will benefit from weakened dollar credit and a rate-cutting cycle [2]. - Specific recommendations include: - Rare Earths: Favorable outlook for prices, with recommendations for Northern Rare Earth and Guangsheng Nonferrous [2]. - Copper: Limited supply growth, with a positive demand outlook in Q4 2025; recommended stocks include Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum [2]. - Aluminum: Anticipated supply constraints; recommended stock is China Hongqiao [2]. - Gold: Positive outlook due to weakened dollar credit and increasing ETF demand; recommended stocks include Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold [2]. Key Company Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, with all recommended companies rated as "Increase" [4]. - Notable companies include: - Zijin Mining: EPS forecast of 1.77 yuan for 2025, PE of 11 [4]. - Luoyang Molybdenum: EPS forecast of 0.62 yuan for 2025, PE of 14 [4]. - Jincheng Mining: EPS forecast of 3.61 yuan for 2025, PE of 13 [4].