Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector is "Increase" [5] Core Viewpoints - In Q2 2025, the holdings of non-ferrous metal heavy stocks by active equity funds increased, with significant increases in rare earth and minor metals [1][2] - The total market value of active equity funds' holdings in the non-ferrous metals sector reached approximately 70.4 billion yuan, accounting for 4.29% of the total heavy stock holdings, an increase of 0.07 percentage points from Q1 2025 [1] - The top ten heavy stocks are concentrated in copper, gold, and aluminum, with Zijin Mining remaining the largest heavy stock [1] Summary by Sections Heavy Stock Holdings - The market value of the top ten heavy stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector includes Zijin Mining (22.8 billion yuan), Shandong Gold (4.4 billion yuan), and Zhongjin Gold (3 billion yuan) [1] - The increase in holdings is mainly concentrated in rare earth and minor metal sectors, with the largest increases seen in stocks like Guangsheng Nonferrous (rare earth) and Haotong Technology (platinum, palladium, rhodium recovery) [2] Investment Recommendations - Supply constraints are expected to support the price increases of rare earths, copper, and aluminum, while precious metals will benefit from weakened dollar credit and a rate-cutting cycle [2] - Specific recommendations include: - Rare Earth: Favorable outlook for rare earth prices, with recommendations for Northern Rare Earth and Guangsheng Nonferrous [2] - Copper: Limited supply growth due to reduced capital expenditure, with recommendations for Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum [2] - Aluminum: Anticipated supply ceiling for electrolytic aluminum, recommending China Hongqiao [2] - Gold: Positive outlook for gold prices due to weakened dollar credit, with recommendations for Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies are as follows: - Zijin Mining: EPS of 1.21 (2024), PE of 16 (2024) [4] - Luoyang Molybdenum: EPS of 0.63 (2024), PE of 14 (2024) [4] - Jincheng Mining: EPS of 2.54 (2024), PE of 19 (2024) [4] - Western Mining: EPS of 1.23 (2024), PE of 14 (2024) [4] - China Hongqiao: EPS of 2.36 (2024), PE of 8 (2024) [4] - Northern Rare Earth: EPS of 0.28 (2024), PE of 126 (2024) [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong revenue and profit resilience, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 10.1% to 6.06 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 13.5% to 1.97 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [3][4] - The return on average equity (ROAE) improved to 13.3%, up by 0.05 percentage points year-on-year [3][4] - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 489.5% [7][9] Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue and net profit growth rates for the first half of 2025 were 10.1% and 13.5%, respectively, showing resilience in performance [4] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue growth of 10.2% and a net profit growth of 13.2% compared to the same period last year [4] - The bank's total assets and loans grew by 9.2% and 5.2% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a steady expansion [4][5] Asset and Liability Management - The bank's total liabilities and deposits grew by 9% and 9.9% year-on-year, respectively, with a notable increase in deposit growth in the second quarter [5] - The loan-to-deposit growth rate difference widened to 4.7 percentage points, indicating a good match in growth between loans and deposits [5] Interest Margin and Cost Control - The report anticipates a narrowing of the interest margin decline due to effective cost control on liabilities and adjustments in deposit rates [6] - The bank has adjusted its deposit rates multiple times this year, which is expected to gradually alleviate the trend towards longer-term deposits [5][6] Capital Adequacy and Future Growth - The company has a strong capital replenishment capability, supported by a 6 billion yuan convertible bond that is expected to convert favorably [8] - The bank's earnings growth forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 11.4%, 10.7%, and 6%, respectively, with adjusted EPS estimates of 1.28, 1.42, and 1.50 yuan [9][10]

Group 1: Market Overview - The equity market continues to rise, with equity funds showing a net value increase of 3.06%, particularly in the healthcare theme funds which have demonstrated significant performance advantages [2] - Passive funds are seeing a shift, with inflows into financial real estate and dividend-themed ETFs, while large-cap broad-based ETFs are experiencing outflows [2] Group 2: Industry Research - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan and an installed capacity of 60-81 million kilowatts, benefiting the "duopoly" in hydropower equipment [4] - The project is expected to generate substantial construction and material orders, significantly boosting infrastructure investment growth in China [5] Group 3: Real Estate Market - As of July 20, 2025, new home transactions in 20 cities totaled 441,000 units, a decrease of 3.5%, while second-hand home transactions increased by 12.8% [6] Group 4: Steel Industry - The expectation for the exit of outdated production capacity has risen, with rebar prices reaching a new high since April 2025, indicating potential recovery in steel sector profitability [8] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Industry - The recent updates on the 2024 medical insurance fund and centralized procurement policies indicate a strong growth momentum for the innovative drug sector, with several companies successfully launching innovative drugs internationally [9] Group 6: Chemical Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to introduce a stable growth plan for the petrochemical industry, which is expected to optimize the industry structure by phasing out outdated production capacity [10] Group 7: Machinery Industry - The engineering machinery sector is anticipated to benefit from the commencement of the Yarlung hydropower project, with domestic sales recovering and export volumes maintaining growth [10] Group 8: Company Research - The report on Mai Fushi indicates a strong market position due to its comprehensive product matrix and high customer retention, with projected revenues of 2.36 billion, 3.17 billion, and 4.13 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the power equipment and renewable energy sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan and an installed capacity of 60-81 million kilowatts, expected to generate 300 billion kilowatt-hours annually, equivalent to three Three Gorges power stations [2][3]. - The domestic hydropower equipment market is characterized by a "dual oligopoly" structure, with Dongfang Electric and Harbin Electric projected to secure a significant share of the orders for the new hydropower project due to their established market positions [3][4]. - Both Dongfang Electric and Harbin Electric have reported robust growth in new orders, with Dongfang Electric achieving 101.14 billion yuan in new orders in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.88%, and Harbin Electric reporting a 30.55% increase in contract signing [4]. Summary by Sections Project Overview - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project is located in Nyingchi, Tibet, and involves the construction of five stepped power stations, with a total investment of around 1.2 trillion yuan and an annual power generation capacity of 300 billion kilowatt-hours [2]. Market Dynamics - The hydropower equipment sector is dominated by Dongfang Electric and Harbin Electric, with market shares of 45% and 50% respectively in conventional hydropower and large-scale installations [3]. Financial Performance - Dongfang Electric's new orders reached 101.14 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 16.88% increase, while Harbin Electric's contract signing amounted to 56.87 billion yuan, a 30.55% increase, indicating strong demand for power equipment [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on Dongfang Electric and Harbin Electric due to their expected growth in orders and revenue from the Yarlung Tsangpo project and other power generation sectors [5]. Additionally, companies involved in power transmission and grid equipment, such as XJ Electric and Pinggao Electric, are also recommended for investment consideration [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and building materials industry [4] Core Insights - The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to generate substantial construction and material orders [1][2] - The project is estimated to have a capacity of 60 million kW, with an average construction cost of 20,344 yuan/kW for hydropower projects in 2023 [1][2] - The project is anticipated to have a construction period of 15-20 years, leading to an annual investment of 60-80 billion yuan [2] - The project will significantly boost infrastructure investment growth in China, with a 4.6% year-on-year increase in infrastructure investment in the first half of 2025 [3] Summary by Sections Project Overview - The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project is located in Linzhi City, Tibet, and involves the construction of five tiered power stations to enhance power generation efficiency [1] - The total investment is about six times that of the Three Gorges Project, which had a total investment of 207.2 billion yuan [2] Investment Structure - The investment structure for hydropower projects includes approximately 32%-45% for permanent construction, 18%-25% for electromechanical equipment, and 10%-35% for other costs [2] Market Impact - The project is part of China's "14th Five-Year Plan" and is expected to effectively stimulate infrastructure investment growth [3] - Recommended companies to watch include China Power Construction, China Energy Engineering, and several others involved in construction and materials [3]

2025 年 7 月 21 日 行业研究 ——医药生物行业跨市场周报（20250720） 要点 行情回顾：上周， A 股医药生物指数上涨 4.00%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.91pp， 跑赢创业板综指 1.75pp，在 31 个子行业中排名第 2。港股恒生医疗健康指数上 涨 12.0%，跑赢恒生国企指数 8.56pp。 上市公司研发进度跟踪：上周，百奥泰的BAT5906注射液、恒瑞医药的 HRS-2162 注射液的临床申请新进承办。华东医药的 HDM1002、正大天晴的 bosakitug 正 在进行三期临床；联邦制药的 UBT251 正在进行二期临床；海思科的 HSK45030 正在进行一期临床。 本周观点：医保与集采支撑有力，创新药行业成长动能强劲 近日，国家公布了 2024 年医保基金的运行状况与集采政策最新动态。截至 2024 年底，全国基本医疗保险（含生育保险）基金总收入 34913.37 亿元，总支出 29764.03 亿元，全国基本医保统筹基金累计结存 38628.5 亿元。整体来看，医 保基金收支结构合理，体现出运行的稳健性。7 月 15 日，国家组织药品联合采 购办公室公布第十一批集采品 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5]. Core Insights - The expectation for the exit of outdated production capacity has resurfaced, leading to a new high in rebar spot prices since April [1]. - The steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels due to government policies aimed at better aligning supply with demand [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [10][19]. - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 49.12 in June 2025, up 0.07% from the previous month [10][19]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Rebar prices reached a new high since April, with a weekly increase of 0.93% [1]. - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 91%, up 1.0 percentage points week-on-week [9][41]. - The average daily crude steel output for key enterprises in early July 2025 was 2.097 million tons [1][41]. Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was 75.99%, an increase of 3.07 percentage points [2]. - The June PMI new orders index was 50.20% [2]. Price Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.14 this week [3]. - The price difference between small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) was 160 yuan/ton, up 14.29% from last week [3]. Export Chain - The PMI new export orders for China in June 2025 was 47.70%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [3]. Valuation Metrics - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.09%, with the best-performing sector being commercial vehicles, which rose by 5.98% [3]. - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.54, with a historical high of 0.82 [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the steel sector's profitability is likely to recover to historical average levels, supported by government policies aimed at phasing out outdated capacity [4].

- The report tracks the performance of various fund types, highlighting that equity funds showed leading net value growth this week, with mixed equity funds increasing by 3.06%[19][20][22] - Long-term industry theme fund indices demonstrated significant growth, with the pharmaceutical theme fund leading at 8.38%, followed by TMT (3.91%) and national defense military industry (3.44%)[39][40][42] - Passive equity index funds had a median net value growth of 1.27%, with the top-performing fund being the Hang Seng Medical ETF, which achieved a weekly net value growth of 13.62%[45][46] - REITs market remained stable this week, with the REITs comprehensive index rising by 0.03%. Among sub-indices, municipal facilities REITs index performed best, increasing by 1.20%[51][52][53] - ESG funds showed varied performance, with active equity ESG funds achieving a median net value growth of 2.20%, while low-carbon economy and carbon-neutral themes stood out with notable gains[83][84][85]

Macro Analysis - June retail data in the US showed a month-on-month increase, but the resilience should not be overestimated due to potential tariff disruptions and inflation adjustments. Actual retail sales growth was only 0.3% after adjusting for a 0.3% increase in the consumer price index [1] Market Strategy - The market has shifted from policy-driven to fundamental and liquidity-driven since September last year, with expectations for a new upward trend in the second half of 2025, potentially breaking through the peak of the second half of 2024 [2] Credit Bonds - From July 14 to July 18, 2025, a total of 386 credit bonds were issued, totaling 401.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.72% from the previous period. Notably, city investment bonds increased by 16.25% [3] REITs Market - The secondary market for publicly listed REITs showed a trend of rising then falling prices, with an overall return rate of 0.11%. Property-type REITs increased, while concession-type REITs decreased [4] Quantitative Analysis - Market momentum effects were dominant, with public research selection strategies yielding significant excess returns. The public research selection strategy outperformed the CSI 800 by 3.33% [5][6] Automotive Industry - The "anti-involution" trend may shift the automotive industry from price-cutting to technology upgrades and cost reductions. Recommended stocks include XPeng Motors for strong tech capabilities and Geely for solid fundamentals and undervaluation [8] Electric Power Equipment - In June 2025, inverter exports remained stable at $920 million, while component and battery exports decreased by 24% year-on-year. Transformer exports increased by 48% year-on-year [9] Banking Sector - Hangzhou Bank reported a 3.9% year-on-year increase in revenue to 20.09 billion yuan and a 16.7% increase in net profit to 11.66 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating strong fundamental resilience [10] Petrochemical Industry - New Fengming plans to invest in high-end bio-based fibers, with revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 reflecting a decrease of 28% and 22% respectively. The company maintains a "buy" rating due to its leading position in polyester [11] Construction Industry - China Power Construction is expected to benefit from the commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with an estimated annual contract value of 21.8-29.1 billion yuan, significantly enhancing the company's order book [12] Home Appliances - Haier Smart Home is positioned as a leading global home appliance brand, with a positive outlook for air conditioning sales and a projected net profit of 21.5 billion yuan for 2025 [13]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced an overall increase this week, with the ChiNext Index showing the highest gain of 3.17%, while the Shanghai 50 Index had the smallest increase of 0.28%. The sectors of communication, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles performed relatively well, with increases of 7.6%, 4.0%, and 3.3% respectively, while utilities, real estate, and media sectors saw declines of 1.4%, 2.2%, and 2.2% respectively [1][11][14]. Group 2 - Economic data has shown positive performance recently, with the GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 reaching 5.2% year-on-year, and a cumulative growth rate of 5.3% for the first half of the year. The GDP growth rate for the second half only needs to reach 4.7% to meet the annual target of 5% [2][19]. - The demand side remains stable while the investment side shows a slowdown, indicating an improvement in the supply-demand relationship. Retail sales and exports have both seen an upward trend [2][19]. - Financial data for June showed strong performance, and the willingness of enterprises to expand internally, along with the pace of incremental fiscal policy, will be key factors affecting social financing growth [2][20]. Group 3 - The "anti-involution" policies are being implemented across various industries to alleviate corporate profit pressures. Additionally, the Ministry of Finance has issued guidelines to encourage long-term investments from insurance funds [30][31]. - The internal policy space remains available for further action, especially in response to external uncertainties. The domestic economy has shown signs of improvement, making it feasible to achieve the annual economic goals [31][32]. Group 4 - The market is expected to focus on the performance of listed companies' interim reports, the easing of external uncertainties, and the marginal loosening of overseas liquidity in August [4][39]. - The configuration direction emphasizes three main lines: domestic consumption, technological self-reliance, and dividend stocks. In the domestic consumption sector, attention is drawn to subsidy-related and offline service consumption [4][51].