Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [4]. Core Insights - The recent decline in pig prices has led to increased resistance from the breeding sector, with large producers gradually easing their selling pace. However, high temperatures have weakened terminal demand, resulting in low slaughter volumes and insufficient consumer support [1][22]. - The corn and soybean meal prices have risen, while wheat prices have decreased. The corn market is buoyed by a decrease in circulation due to the wheat harvest, and soybean supply remains ample due to favorable weather conditions in major production areas [2][44]. - The natural rubber price has increased, supported by tightening supply due to weather impacts on production and recovering demand from tire manufacturers [62]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector outperformed the market, with the sector index rising by 1.62% compared to a 0.25% decline in the Shanghai Composite Index [13]. - The sub-sectors showed varied performance, with livestock farming and animal health sectors increasing by 3.92% and 1.13%, respectively, while planting and feed sectors experienced declines [13][18]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The average price of live pigs was reported at 14.02 yuan/kg, down 0.21% week-on-week, while the average price of piglets fell by 4.69% to 32.89 yuan/kg [21][22]. - The average weight of slaughtered pigs decreased to 128.82 kg, and the national frozen meat inventory rate increased to 13.89% [22]. - White feather broiler prices dropped to 7.27 yuan/kg, and chick prices fell to 2.74 yuan each, reflecting a weak market for poultry [31][21]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For the pig farming sector, the report suggests that the industry capacity cycle has bottomed out, and with ongoing policy support for inventory reduction, a long-term profit uptrend is expected post-inventory clearance. Recommended stocks include Juxing Agriculture, Shennong Group, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuff [3][71]. - The report also highlights opportunities in the planting chain due to the upward trend in grain prices, recommending stocks like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3][71]. - In the pet food sector, the report notes ongoing growth and price increase logic, recommending companies such as Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [3][71].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The rise in crude oil prices, influenced by geopolitical tensions, is expected to boost overseas coal market sentiment, necessitating close monitoring of international disturbances on coal prices [1][2]. - Seasonal demand for electricity is anticipated to support stable coal prices as summer peaks approach, with recommendations for companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profitability, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Crude oil prices surged due to military actions in the Middle East, with Brent crude futures rising by 7.02% on June 13 and a total increase of 11.67% for the week [1]. - Historical correlations suggest that rising crude oil prices may positively impact coal prices [1]. Price Trends - The average closing price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (5500 kcal) was 609 RMB/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.04% week-on-week [2]. - The average price for Australian Newcastle port thermal coal (5500 kcal) was 66 USD/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.99% [2]. - European natural gas futures settled at 36 EUR/MWh, up by 0.60% [2]. Production and Inventory - The operating rate of 110 sample washing plants was 57.4%, down 3.2 percentage points week-on-week and 11.6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a low level compared to the past five years [3]. - Coal inventories at Qinhuangdao port were 6.18 million tons, down 5.65% week-on-week but up 19.31% year-on-year, indicating a high level for the same period [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the upcoming summer electricity demand will support coal prices, recommending companies with stable earnings such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies are as follows: - China Shenhua: EPS 2.95 (2024A), PE 13 (2024A), rating "Accumulate" [5]. - China Coal Energy: EPS 1.46 (2024A), PE 7 (2024A), rating "Accumulate" [5]. - Shanxi Coking Coal: EPS 0.55 (2024A), PE 12 (2024A), rating "Accumulate" [5].

2025 年 6 月 15 日 行业研究 坚守长期主义之十：地缘政治风险再起，"三桶油"及油服战略价值凸显 市场担忧伊核协议谈判中断、原油运输风险，油价有望持续上行。本轮伊以 冲突对原油市场的影响包括：（1）伊核谈判前景不明，对伊朗石油生产销售 的制裁可能加剧。本次以色列对伊朗发动袭击后，伊朗一度宣布退出伊核谈判， 伊以冲突加剧了伊核谈判前景的不确定性。2025 年 1-4 月，伊朗原油产量约 为 330 万桶/日，伊核谈判失败可能使美国对伊朗原油生产制裁加剧，在上一 轮制裁周期内，2019 年全年伊朗的原油产量为 236 万桶/日。（2）地缘冲突 加剧导致原油运输风险加剧。2023H1，霍尔木兹海峡原油流量约为 2050 万 桶/日，占全球海运原油总量的 27%，地缘政治冲突使得全球原油运输风险上 升。当前原油供需面临一定压力，但本轮地缘政治冲突有望使原油供需担忧得 到缓解，地缘风险溢价的整体上升有望在一段时间内持续推高油价。 "三桶油"及油服以自身发展确定性应对外部不确定性，战略价值凸显。2025 年以来地缘政治局势不确定性较强，我国能源安全受到较多外部挑战。"三桶 油"将继续维持高资本开支，大力推进"增 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a pullback this week due to a decline in risk appetite, influenced by deteriorating geopolitical conditions overseas. Most major indices fell, with the ChiNext Index showing the largest increase of 0.2%, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index had the largest decline of 1.9%. Currently, the valuation of the Wind All A Index is at a historical medium level since 2010 [1][13][15] - In terms of industry performance, there was a divergence in the performance of the Shenwan first-level industries this week. Non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, and agriculture-related sectors performed relatively well, while food and beverage, home appliances, and building materials sectors saw significant declines [1][15][24] Group 2 - Recent turmoil in the Middle East, particularly Israel's strikes against Iran, is not expected to have a significant impact on the A-share and Hong Kong markets. Historically, the impact of Middle Eastern tensions on these markets has been minimal. The low share of the Middle East in China's import and export trade also contributes to the limited effect on the domestic economy [2][3][21] - The short-term impact of the Middle East situation on industry performance is expected to be minimal. In the long term, the effect will depend on the duration of the conflict. A shorter conflict may benefit growth sectors, while a longer one could favor resource, transportation, and dividend sectors [2][3][39] Group 3 - The market is anticipated to maintain a consolidation state, with three main lines of focus: domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and sectors that are currently underweighted by funds. The expansion of domestic demand is a key focus of recent domestic policies, which may lead to continued policy catalysts [4][18] - The historical data indicates that the average performance of major assets following conflicts in the Middle East shows that the A-share and Hong Kong markets do not experience significant declines. The average performance of the Wind All A Index and the Hang Seng Index remains stable, with a tendency for narrow fluctuations [24][25][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a trend towards a balance between quantity and price in credit expansion, with a focus on the need for effective demand improvement to achieve a stable equilibrium in loan volume, pricing, and risk [5][44]. - The banking sector has shown resilience, with the banking index rising 11.8% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 13.6 percentage points, ranking third among all industries [44]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Overview - In May 2025, M2 grew by 7.9%, while M1 increased by 2.3%. New RMB loans amounted to 620 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion, with a growth rate of 7.1% [4][29]. - The total social financing scale in May was 22.89 trillion, with a stable growth rate of 8.7%, consistent with the end of April [29][36]. Credit Demand and Supply - The report notes that the demand for credit remains relatively weak, with May's new RMB loans showing a year-on-year decrease. The total new loans from January to May were 10.7 trillion, down 460 billion from the previous year [4][5]. - Corporate loans accounted for 86% of new loans in May, with short-term loans showing a significant increase due to banks adjusting their strategies to meet credit demand [15][19]. Consumer Credit Trends - Consumer loans in May totaled 54 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 217 billion. The report indicates that mortgage demand remains under pressure, with expectations of continued negative growth in this area [22][23]. - The average interest rate for new personal housing loans was stable at 3.1%, indicating a bottoming out phase for mortgage pricing [25][19]. Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The report anticipates that June will see an increase in loan issuance due to seasonal factors and government debt replacement efforts, which are expected to stabilize credit growth [5][44]. - The banking sector's net interest margin (NIM) is showing signs of stabilization, with expectations for continued improvement in the operating environment due to supportive monetary policies [44][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite the slow credit growth during the local government implicit debt replacement phase, it doesn't mean a decline in credit support for the real economy; instead, it benefits economic growth. The new policy - type financial tool is a trump card for promoting credit, and there's no need to be pessimistic about future credit growth. Credit growth isn't necessarily better the more it is, and an appropriate decline in credit growth is normal during economic restructuring and the increase of direct financing ratio. Considering various factors, a credit growth rate of about 7.5% for state - owned large - scale banks is satisfactory [1][3][4]. Summary by Related Contents Credit Growth in May 2025 - In May 2025, new RMB loans were 62 billion yuan, 34 billion yuan more than in April and 33 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Local government implicit debt replacement is one of the factors affecting May's credit growth [1][9]. Impact of Debt Replacement on Credit - Local government implicit debt replacement uses low - cost, long - term local government bonds to replace high - cost, short - remaining - term debts, which helps relieve the debt chain, benefiting economic growth. During this phase, slow credit growth doesn't mean a decline in credit support for the real economy [1][9]. Weakening of Effective Demand - The weakening of effective demand is mainly due to external shocks such as US tariff policies. Economic data reflects this, like the domestic manufacturing PMI in April and May 2025 being 49.0% and 49.5% respectively, lower than the Q1 average of 49.9%, and the PPI year - on - year growth rates in April and May being - 2.7% and - 3.3% respectively, lower than the Q1 average of - 2.3% [1][9]. Historical Experience of Policy Intervention - Similar external shocks have been experienced in the past. As long as policies respond actively, credit support for the real economy won't weaken and may even strengthen. For example, in 2020 and 2022, affected by the COVID - 19 pandemic, RMB loans increased by 19.6 trillion and 21.3 trillion yuan respectively, 2.8 trillion and 1.4 trillion yuan more than the previous years. New regulatory tools were introduced, like the policy - based and development - oriented financial tools in 2022, which injected 740 billion yuan into real - sector enterprises by the end of October, stimulating more effective credit demand [2][11][13]. New Policy - Type Financial Tool - The Politburo meeting on April 25, 2025, called for the establishment of a new policy - type financial tool. Assuming an average project capital ratio of 20%, every 500 billion yuan of this tool can theoretically leverage 2 trillion yuan of credit funds, making it a trump card for promoting credit [3][13]. Issues with Excessive Credit Growth - Financial institutions' "scale complex" leads to "involution - style competition" in the deposit and loan markets. Excessive credit growth through loan "price wars" sacrifices the sustainability of banks' support for the real economy and the banks' operational stability, and provides a breeding ground for capital idling and arbitrage [3][13]. Appropriate Credit Growth Rate - During economic restructuring and the increase of direct financing ratio, an appropriate decline in credit growth is normal. Considering factors like the GDP growth target of about 5% and CPI growth target of about 2% this year, a credit growth rate of about 7.5% for state - owned large - scale banks is satisfactory [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the semiconductor industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [7]. Core Insights - The North American AI computing sector is leading the technology sector, with strong demand for AI inference and sovereign AI driving significant growth in AI chip shipments. Major companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom have seen stock price increases of 54%, 38%, and 75% respectively from April 7 to June 12, 2025, compared to a 26% rise in the Nasdaq index [1]. - The storage market is recovering, with prices for various DDR3 and DDR4 products rising due to supply constraints from major manufacturers like Micron and Samsung. This trend is expected to continue, with price increases projected for DRAM and NAND Flash products in Q3 2025 [3]. - Non-AI application chip demand is recovering weakly, with global wafer fab utilization rates remaining low at 60%-70%, below the healthy range of 80%-90%. Additionally, IDC has significantly downgraded its forecast for global smartphone shipments in 2025 from a 2.6% increase to just 0.6% [2]. Summary by Sections AI Sector - Strong demand for AI inference and sovereign AI is evident, with Nvidia reporting explosive growth in AI inference demand and significant partnerships for AI infrastructure development in Europe [1]. - Nvidia's supply capabilities have improved, with a strong delivery rate of NVL racks and expectations for increased production in FY26 [1]. - ASIC deployment is expected to increase significantly in 2026, with Broadcom anticipating major deployments from key clients [1]. Non-AI Sector - The recovery in non-AI chip demand is sluggish, with low wafer fab utilization rates and a decline in PC GPU and CPU shipments in Q1 2025 [2]. - The smartphone market is facing challenges, with a drastic reduction in shipment growth forecasts due to economic uncertainties and reduced consumer spending [2]. Storage Market - The storage market is showing signs of recovery, with price increases for DDR3 and DDR4 products driven by supply constraints and improved demand from downstream customers [3]. - TrendForce forecasts price increases for DRAM and NAND Flash products in Q3 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the storage segment [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies like SMIC, which is positioned to benefit from domestic AI computing demand and has a strong capacity release in high-end production lines [3]. - Hua Hong Semiconductor is also recommended due to its ability to secure more domestic orders amid weak non-AI demand and its engagement with European IDM manufacturers [3]. - Shanghai Fudan is suggested for its strong smart meter business and recovery in non-volatile storage, with expansion into automotive and IoT sectors [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a favorable outlook for investment over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company has maintained its leading position in the copper-clad laminate industry, ranking second globally in rigid copper-clad laminate sales with a market share of 14% in 2023 [1]. - The company is actively expanding into the AI server market, which is projected to grow significantly, reaching $125.1 billion in 2024 and expected to exceed $222.7 billion by 2028 [2]. - The company's revenue and profit levels have shown substantial growth, with a 22.92% increase in revenue to CNY 20.39 billion and a 49.37% increase in net profit to CNY 1.74 billion in 2024 [3]. - The company has increased its net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 by 20% and 25% respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at CNY 4.04 billion [4]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - In 2024, the company produced 143.71 million square meters of various copper-clad laminates, a year-on-year increase of 17.03%, and sold 143.49 million square meters, up 19.40% [3]. - The company has a total of 682 valid authorized patents as of the end of 2024, reflecting its commitment to innovation [1]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from CNY 20.39 billion in 2024 to CNY 31.73 billion by 2027, with corresponding net profit forecasts increasing from CNY 1.74 billion to CNY 4.04 billion [5]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in profitability metrics, with the return on equity (ROE) expected to rise from 11.67% in 2024 to 21.76% in 2027 [12]. Market Trends - The global AI server market is experiencing robust growth, with a 46% year-on-year increase in shipment volume driven by demand from cloud service providers and original equipment manufacturers [2]. - The company is responding to new requirements for signal transmission and bandwidth in AI applications, positioning itself to meet evolving customer needs [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return that will outperform the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [4][15][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of HKD 89.66 billion for FY2025, a decrease of 17.5% year-on-year, while the profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 5.916 billion, down 9.0% year-on-year [1][5]. - The overall gross margin increased by 5.5 percentage points to 29.5% in FY2025, primarily due to rising gold prices and an increase in the proportion of fixed-price products [2]. - The company has successfully implemented a transformation strategy, with a net reduction of 905 stores, while launching differentiated product series that have gained consumer popularity [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts upward for FY2026 and FY2027 by 11% and 10% respectively, now projecting profits of HKD 6.924 billion and HKD 7.734 billion [4]. - The report also introduces a new forecast for FY2028, estimating a profit of HKD 8.232 billion [4]. Store Performance and Strategy - As of March 31, 2025, the total number of stores was 6,644, with a net decrease of 905 stores compared to the previous year [3]. - The company has focused on optimizing store quality and has seen improvements in same-store performance, with a narrowing decline in same-store sales over three consecutive quarters [4]. Financial Metrics - The report provides a summary of key financial metrics, including a projected revenue growth rate of 5.32% for FY2026 and a profit growth rate of 17.04% for the same period [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from HKD 0.59 in FY2025 to HKD 0.69 in FY2026 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the potassium fertilizer industry, highlighting the importance of securing supply chains and agricultural stability [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The price for potassium fertilizer contracts in China for 2025 has been set at $346 per ton CFR, which is a crucial development for ensuring supply for the upcoming agricultural seasons [1]. - Global potassium chloride demand is projected to exceed 80 million tons by 2030, driven by population growth and increased food quality demands, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 2.3%-3.2% from 2023 to 2030 [3]. - The geopolitical situation, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continues to create uncertainties in the global potassium supply chain, prompting China to focus more on the security of strategic resources like potassium [2]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer Contracts - In June 2025, a significant potassium fertilizer import contract was finalized between Chinese companies and a Dubai-based supplier, establishing a price of $346 per ton, which is essential for maintaining supply stability [1]. Global Demand Forecast - By 2030, global potassium chloride demand is expected to rise by 12-17 million tons compared to 2023 levels, with China being the largest market, anticipated to require 17.5-18.5 million tons in 2024 [3]. Strategic Resource Security - The report emphasizes the need for China to enhance its focus on the security of strategic resources like potassium due to ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [2].