2025 年 6 月 13 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】美国通胀压力何时显现？——2025 年 5 月美国 CPI 数据点评 5 月，美国通胀环比增速不升反降，低于市场预期：一是，受贸易争端的担忧和 OPEC+ 增产影响，能源价格低位运行；二是，企业通过抢进口、消化关税成本等方式，短期 稳定商品价格。目前仅有局部领域涨价，而权重较高的服装、汽车价格仍在下跌；三 是，关税生效前居民消费提前释放，同时关税冲击消费者信心，居民出行需求明显走 弱，4 月以来酒店、机票、娱乐等服务价格持续下跌。 行业研究 【基化】扬帆新材子公司车间着火，持续关注光引发剂行业供需格局优化——石化化 工交运行业日报第 77 期（20250612）(增持) 投资建议：（1）持续看好低估值、高股息、业绩好的"三桶油"及油服板块。建议 关注：中国石油、中国石化、中国海油、中海油服、海油工程、海油发展；（2）持 续看好国产替代趋势下的材料企业，国产半导体材料、面板材料有望受益，建议关注： 晶瑞电材、彤程新材、奥来德；（3）看好农药化肥及民营大炼化板块，建议关注： 万华化学、华鲁恒升、华锦股份；（4）看好维生素及蛋氨酸板块 ...

2025 年 6 月 12 日 总量研究 美国通胀压力何时显现？ ——2025 年 5 月美国 CPI 数据点评 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513108 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 美国通胀继续回落，关税冲击尚待显现—— 2025 年 4 月美国 CPI 数 据 点 评 （2025-05-14） 高关税如何影响美国通胀？——2025年3月 美国 CPI 数据点评（2025-04-11） 美国通胀超预期回落，未来降息节奏如何？ — — 2025 年 2 月美国 CPI 数据点评 （2025-03-13） 美国通胀为何超预期上行？——2025年1月 美国 CPI 数据点评（2025-02-13） 美国核心通胀回落，降息预期升温——2024 年 12 月美国 CPI 数据点评（2025-01-16） 为什么我们认为美国通胀将低于预期？—— 2024 年 11 月 美 国 CPI 数 据 点 评 （2024-12-12） 制造 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Increase" for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [5]. Core Insights - The fire incident at Jiangxi Yangfan's workshop may impact the supply of intermediates for photoinitiators, particularly affecting the supply of photoinitiator 907, which is crucial for the PCB industry [1][2]. - The demand for photoinitiator 907 is expected to rise due to the recovery in electronic terminal consumption and the increasing computational requirements from emerging industries like AI [2]. - The domestic production and sales of photoinitiators have been on the rise, with prices anticipated to rebound from their current low levels as the supply-demand balance improves [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Yangfan New Materials' subsidiary experienced a fire, leading to a temporary halt in production and potential supply chain disruptions for photoinitiators [1]. - The company reported a revenue of 346 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 47.3% of the total revenue of the listed company [1]. Demand Drivers - The PCB industry is a significant driver for the demand of photoinitiator 907, with major suppliers being Jiurichuang and Yangfan New Materials [2]. - The recovery in consumer electronics and the growth of AI-related industries are expected to sustain high demand for PCB products, thereby boosting the photoinitiator market [2]. Market Trends - The market for photoinitiators has seen continuous growth in production and sales, with recent price fluctuations due to environmental policies and external factors [3]. - The report suggests that the current low-profit environment may lead to the exit of some smaller players, enhancing market concentration and benefiting leading companies in the photoinitiator sector [3].

2025 年 6 月 12 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 数据来源：Wind, Bloomberg 行业研究 【基化】化工企业近期事故频发，建议关注尼龙及特种尼龙产业链——石化化工交运 行业日报第 76 期（20250611）(增持) 投资建议：（1）持续看好低估值、高股息、业绩好的"三桶油"及油服板块。建议 关注：中国石油、中国石化、中国海油、中海油服、海油工程、海油发展；（2）持 续看好国产替代趋势下的材料企业，国产半导体材料、面板材料有望受益，建议关注： 晶瑞电材、彤程新材、奥来德；（3）看好农药化肥及民营大炼化板块，建议关注： 万华化学、华鲁恒升、华锦股份；（4）看好维生素及蛋氨酸板块，建议关注：安迪 苏、浙江医药、新和成。 风险分析：原材料快速下跌和维持高位、下游需求不及预 期风险。 | | A 股市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3402.32 | 0.52 | | 沪深 300 | 3894.63 | 0.75 | | 深证成指 | 10246.02 | 0.83 | | 中小板指 | 6414.1 | 0.87 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the chemical industry, particularly focusing on nylon and specialty nylon supply chains [5]. Core Insights - Recent accidents in chemical enterprises have disrupted the supply of chemical products such as caprolactam. A significant incident occurred on June 8, 2025, at China Pingmei Shenma Group's nylon technology company, affecting its production capabilities [1]. - The report emphasizes the robust demand for nylon, which is widely used in various applications, with notable consumption increases in nylon 6 and nylon 66, projected to grow by 22.2% and 41.2% respectively in 2024 [2]. - The report suggests monitoring companies involved in the nylon and specialty nylon sectors, including PolyOne and Taihua New Materials, as well as caprolactam producers like Luxi Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [3]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Overview - The report highlights the recent frequency of accidents in the chemical sector, leading to stricter regulations on high-risk chemical reactions, which may impact supply chains [1]. - The current domestic caprolactam production capacity stands at 7.1 million tons per year, with the recent accident potentially affecting 5.6% of the supply [3]. Nylon and Specialty Nylon - Nylon, known for its excellent mechanical strength and wear resistance, has a significant market presence, with nylon 6 and nylon 66 accounting for approximately 90% of total consumption [2]. - The report identifies key players in the specialty nylon market, including DuPont and Arkema, while noting the trend towards domestic substitution in production [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued, high-dividend companies in the oil and gas sector, as well as material companies benefiting from domestic substitution trends [3]. - Specific companies to watch include China Petroleum, China Petrochemical, and Wanhu Chemical, among others [3].

己内酰胺用于制备尼龙 6，我国现有产能 710 万吨/年。己内酰胺是重要的有 机化工原料之一，主要用途是通过聚合生成尼龙 6 切片，可进一步加工成锦 纶纤维、工程塑料、塑料薄膜。产能布局方面，根据百川盈孚统计，目前我 国共有己内酰胺产能 710 万吨/年，其中鲁西化工具备 65 万吨/年产能，华 鲁恒升具备 40 万吨/年产能，恒逸石化具备权益产能 22.5 万吨/年。该事故 的发生或将影响行业内 5.6%的己内酰胺供应。己内酰胺相关企业中，我们 建议关注：鲁西化工、华鲁恒升、恒逸石化等。 投资建议：（1）持续看好低估值、高股息、业绩好的"三桶油"及油服板 块。建议关注：中国石油、中国石化、中国海油、中海油服、海油工程、海 油发展；（2）持续看好国产替代趋势下的材料企业，国产半导体材料、面 板材料有望受益，建议关注：晶瑞电材、彤程新材、奥来德；（3）积极的 货币及财政政策陆续出台，地产链及龙头公司有望率先受益，看好农药化肥 及民营大炼化板块，建议关注：万华化学、华鲁恒升、华锦股份；（4）看 好维生素及蛋氨酸板块，建议关注：安迪苏、浙江医药、新和成。 2025 年 6 月 11 日 行业研究 化工企业近期事故频 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing "three major oil companies" and oil service sectors, recommending attention to China National Petroleum, China Petroleum & Chemical, China National Offshore Oil, China Oilfield Services, and others [2] - There is a sustained optimism regarding domestic substitution trends in material companies, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, with recommendations for companies like Jingrui Electric Materials and Tongcheng New Materials [2] - The report also highlights a favorable view on the pesticide, fertilizer, and private refining sectors, suggesting companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng for investment [2] - Additionally, the report expresses a positive sentiment towards the vitamin and methionine sectors, recommending companies like Andisu and Zhejiang Medicine [2] Market Data Summary - The A-share market showed a decline with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3384.82, down 0.44% [3] - The commodity market reflected mixed results, with gold slightly up by 0.04% and nickel down by 1.08% [3] - In the foreign exchange market, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.184, down 0.02% [3] - The bond market showed a slight decrease in the one-year government bond yield to 1.4077%, down 0.25 basis points [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and chemical industry [5] Core Insights - COFs (Covalent Organic Frameworks) are emerging crystalline porous polymer materials with diverse potential applications in various fields such as catalysis, gas separation, biomedical purification, environmental treatment, and energy storage [1][3][12] - The production methods for COFs include solvent thermal synthesis, ionothermal synthesis, mechanochemical synthesis, and microwave-assisted synthesis, with solvent thermal synthesis being the most common [2][10] - The company Baolidi has achieved ton-level production of COFs, marking significant progress in industrialization, and plans to establish a production line with an annual capacity of 200 tons [3][13] Summary by Sections COFs Overview - COFs are characterized by high thermal and chemical stability, good biocompatibility, large specific surface area, and controllable chemical and physical properties [1][7] - Potential applications include catalytic refining, air separation, wastewater treatment, nuclear waste processing, drug delivery, and energy storage [1][12] Production Methods - The most common method for synthesizing COFs is solvent thermal synthesis, which involves a sealed environment at temperatures of 80-200°C for 2-9 days [2][10] - Other methods include ionothermal synthesis, which uses molten salts or ionic liquids, and mechanochemical synthesis, which utilizes mechanical force to form new covalent bonds [2][10][11] Industrialization Progress - Baolidi's joint venture, YaoKe New Materials, focuses on the industrialization of COFs and has developed several series of COFs super adsorbent products for applications in nuclear waste treatment and water pollution removal [3][13] - The company has successfully scaled up COFs production to ton-level and is currently designing a production line for 200 tons annually [3][13] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued focus on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing companies in the petrochemical sector, as well as material companies benefiting from domestic substitution trends [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and chemical transportation sectors [5] Core Insights - Covalent Organic Frameworks (COFs) are emerging crystalline porous polymer materials with diverse potential applications in various fields such as catalysis, gas separation, biomedical purification, environmental treatment, and energy storage [1][3][12] - The production methods for COFs include solvent thermal synthesis, ionothermal synthesis, mechanochemical synthesis, and microwave-assisted synthesis, with solvent thermal synthesis being the most common [2][10] - Baolidi has achieved ton-level production of COFs, marking significant progress in industrialization, with plans for an annual production capacity of 200 tons [3][13] Summary by Sections Section 1: COFs Overview - COFs are characterized by high thermal and chemical stability, good biocompatibility, large specific surface area, and controllable chemical and physical properties [1][7] - Potential applications include catalytic refining, air separation, wastewater treatment, nuclear waste management, drug delivery, and energy storage [1][12] Section 2: Production Methods - The most common method for synthesizing COFs is solvent thermal synthesis, which operates at temperatures between 80-200°C for 2-9 days [2][10] - Other methods include ionothermal synthesis, which utilizes molten salts or ionic liquids, and mechanochemical synthesis, which involves grinding monomers [2][10][11] Section 3: Industrialization Progress - Baolidi's joint venture, YaoKe New Materials, focuses on the industrialization of COFs using a green synthesis technique developed by Nankai University [3][13] - The company has successfully developed multiple series of COFs super adsorbent products, demonstrating industrial application in areas such as nuclear waste treatment and VOCs removal [3][13] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing companies in the "three barrels of oil" and oil service sectors, as well as domestic material companies benefiting from the trend of domestic substitution [4]

Macro Analysis - In May, domestic prices continued to operate at low levels due to falling energy prices and weak investment demand, but prices for travel services, some consumer manufacturing, and high-tech products increased, indicating the acceleration of new momentum [1] - The CPI year-on-year growth rate is expected to remain low, with the recent increase in pig supply due to regulatory impacts leading to weaker pork prices, potentially creating new downward pressure [1] - PPI is anticipated to see a narrowing of the month-on-month decline as oil prices stabilize and trade conditions improve, with attention on the support from new policy financial tools for investment [1] Market Strategy - Most major asset classes rose this week, with WTI crude oil prices leading in gains and the US dollar index showing a notable decline [2] - The A-share broad indices all rose, with the ChiNext index showing the highest increase, while the Shanghai Composite Index had the lowest rise [2] - Most industries experienced gains, with telecommunications leading in growth and home appliances showing a decline [2] Company Research - The basic situation of property management remains stable, with Sunac Services (1516.HK) poised for independent development [3] - Sunac China’s recent offshore debt-to-equity swap plan received 82% support from bondholders, and the total sales amount for May was 4.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128%, indicating strong performance [3] - The impact of related parties on Sunac Services is expected to be alleviated, with sufficient provisions for trade receivables impairment, allowing the company to potentially break free from real estate influences starting in 2025 and enter a stable growth trajectory [3] - Forecasted net profit for the parent company from 2025 to 2027 is 420 million, 520 million, and 620 million yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 11, 9, and 8 times, maintaining an "Accumulate" rating [3]