Investment Rating - The mechanical industry is rated as "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing significant advancements, with various companies unveiling new models and applications, indicating a strong growth trajectory for the industry [2][3][6][7] - The engineering machinery sector is showing signs of recovery, with excavator sales in April 2025 reaching 22,142 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [13] - The agricultural machinery market is facing challenges, with the China Agricultural Machinery Market Sentiment Index dropping to 47.9% in April 2025, reflecting a decline in various sub-indices [9][10] Summary by Relevant Sections Humanoid Robots - Lenovo's humanoid robot showcased at the Tech World 2025 conference demonstrates advanced capabilities such as Tai Chi performance and business Q&A [2] - Sichuan Mianyang deployed humanoid robots for traffic guidance, highlighting practical applications in urban settings [2] - ZTE is entering the companion robot market, indicating a growing interest from major tech companies [2] Engineering Machinery - Excavator sales in April 2025 reached 22,142 units, with domestic sales at 12,547 units and exports at 9,595 units, showing strong growth [13] - The industry is expected to benefit from increased infrastructure investment as major projects are set to commence [13] Agricultural Machinery - The Agricultural Machinery Market Sentiment Index for April 2025 is at 47.9%, down 13.8 points month-on-month, indicating a downturn in market conditions [9] - The production of various types of tractors has shown mixed results, with large tractors increasing by 6.1% while smaller models have seen declines [10] Robotics and Automation - The production line for humanoid robots is expected to ramp up significantly in 2025, with a focus on high-complexity functions and cost reduction [7] - Companies like Midea and KUKA are collaborating on humanoid robots for factory operations, indicating a trend towards automation in manufacturing [6] Market Trends - The overall mechanical industry is experiencing a recovery phase, with various sectors showing positive growth indicators, particularly in robotics and engineering machinery [13][17]

Group 1: Policy Impact - The fiscal multiplier for the "trade-in" policy in Q1 2025 increased to 2.4, up from 2.1 in Q4 2024, primarily due to the expansion of subsidies to the electronics sector[2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, compared to an average monthly growth rate of 3.9% in Q4 2024[3] - If the fiscal multiplier remains above 2.0, a funding input of 300 billion yuan could boost retail sales growth by over 1.2 percentage points[4] Group 2: Sector-Specific Analysis - The subsidy amount for home appliances in Q1 2025 was 21.1 billion yuan, leading to a consumption increase of 51.5 billion yuan, resulting in a fiscal multiplier of 2.43[15] - The subsidy for automobiles in Q1 2025 was 27.9 billion yuan, generating a consumption increase of 51.7 billion yuan, with a fiscal multiplier of 1.86[20] - The subsidy for communication devices in Q1 2025 was 10.5 billion yuan, resulting in a consumption increase of 41.2 billion yuan, yielding a fiscal multiplier of 3.92[23] Group 3: Future Outlook - The acceleration of applications for the "trade-in" policy since April 2025 indicates sustained demand for consumer goods[4] - The government plans to expand the subsidy scope to include service sectors, with a proposed 500 billion yuan for service consumption and elderly care loans[5] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and unexpected changes in the international political and economic landscape[27]

Investment Rating - The mechanical industry is rated as "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing significant advancements, with various companies unveiling new models and applications, indicating a growing market potential [2][3][6][7] - The engineering machinery industry is showing signs of recovery, with excavator sales increasing by 17.6% year-on-year in April 2025, suggesting a rebound in demand driven by infrastructure investments [13] - The agricultural machinery market is facing challenges, with a decline in the market sentiment index, indicating potential risks in this sub-sector [9][10] Summary by Relevant Sections Humanoid Robots - Lenovo's humanoid robot showcased at the Tech World 2025 conference demonstrates advanced capabilities such as Tai Chi performance and business Q&A [2] - Sichuan Mianyang deployed humanoid robots for traffic guidance, highlighting practical applications in urban settings [2] - ZTE is entering the companion robot market, indicating a diversification of applications in the humanoid robot sector [2] Engineering Machinery - In April 2025, excavator sales reached 22,142 units, with domestic sales at 12,547 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.4% [13] - The industry is expected to benefit from increased infrastructure investments as major projects are set to commence [13] Agricultural Machinery - The agricultural machinery market sentiment index dropped to 47.9% in April 2025, a decrease of 13.8 percentage points from the previous month [9] - The production of various types of tractors showed mixed results, with large tractors increasing by 6.1% year-on-year, while smaller tractors faced declines [9][10] Market Trends - The humanoid robot industry is anticipated to see mass production breakthroughs in 2025, which will enhance data collection and training capabilities [7] - The engineering machinery sector is expected to recover gradually as macroeconomic policies take effect, improving equipment utilization rates [13] Key Data Tracking - Japan's machine tool orders in March 2025 reached 151.1 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 11.4% [8] - China's metal cutting machine tool production in the first quarter of 2025 was 182,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.5% [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [7] Core Viewpoints - High inventory pressure is evident, leading to a further decline in coal prices. As of May 9, coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports reached 33.051 million tons, up 6.50% month-on-month and 42.15% year-on-year, marking the highest level for the same period [2][5] - The recent week saw a downward trend in port coal prices, with the Qinhuangdao port's thermal coal closing price averaging 638 RMB/ton, down 14 RMB/ton (-2.18%) compared to the previous week, indicating that downstream pressure is greater than upstream [3][5] - The report suggests that short-term stabilization of coal prices may require a recovery in demand, recommending a defensive approach towards the current sector, particularly favoring companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profitability such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [5] Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - The Qinhuangdao port's thermal coal price (5500 kcal weekly average) was 638 RMB/ton, down 14 RMB/ton (-2.18%) for the week of May 5-9 [3] - The average price of thermal mixed coal at the Yulin pit in Shaanxi (5800 kcal) was 510 RMB/ton, down 6 RMB/ton (-1.21%) [3] Inventory Levels - As of May 9, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 7.53 million tons, up 8.03% month-on-month and 56.22% year-on-year, also at a record high for the same period [5] - The report highlights that the inventory levels at independent coking plants and sample steel mills are currently at low levels [5] Production and Utilization Rates - The operating rate of 110 sample washing plants was 62.4%, down 0.5 percentage points month-on-month and 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, remaining at a five-year low [4] - The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 92.09%, up 0.09 percentage points month-on-month and 4.42 percentage points year-on-year, with a daily average pig iron output of 2.457 million tons, reflecting a slight increase [4] Key Company Forecasts - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) forecasts and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, all rated as "Accumulate" [6] - China Shenhua's EPS for 2024 is projected at 2.95 RMB, with a PE ratio of 13 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sector [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that rebar prices have dropped to an 8-month low, indicating a challenging environment for the construction and real estate sectors [1][40]. - The steel industry's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels due to recent regulatory changes and improved demand dynamics [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for April 2025 is 48.03, down 7.24% month-on-month [10]. - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -5.4 percentage points in March 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.5 percentage points [10]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Rebar prices decreased by 1.56% this week, with a current price of 3150 yuan/ton [1][40]. - The national steel PMI new orders index for April 2025 is 51%, up 9.9 percentage points from the previous month [40]. Industrial Products Chain - The half-steel tire operating rate decreased by 14.08 percentage points this week, indicating a slowdown in production [2]. - Major commodity prices showed mixed performance, with cold-rolled steel down 0.59% and copper up 0.45% [2]. Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 2.00%, with the engineering machinery sector performing best at +3.17% [4]. - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.54, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4]. Real Estate Completion Chain - The cumulative year-on-year change in the national completed area of commercial housing from January to March 2025 is -14.30% [72]. - The price of titanium dioxide is 14600 yuan/ton, with a profit margin of -355 yuan/ton, indicating low profitability in the sector [75]. Price Comparison - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is currently 80 yuan/ton, reflecting a low price spread [3]. - The price of electrolytic copper is 78380 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.45% [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [7] Core Viewpoints - High inventory pressure is evident, leading to a further decline in coal prices. As of May 9, coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports reached 33.051 million tons, up 6.50% week-on-week and 42.15% year-on-year, marking the highest level for the same period [2][5] - The recent week saw a downward trend in port coal prices, with the Qinhuangdao port's thermal coal price averaging 638 RMB/ton, down 14 RMB/ton (-2.18%) compared to the previous week, indicating that downstream pressure is greater than upstream [2][3] - The report suggests that short-term stabilization of coal prices may require a recovery in demand, recommending a defensive approach towards the sector and favoring companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profits, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [5] Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - The Qinhuangdao port's thermal coal price (5500 kcal) averaged 638 RMB/ton, down 14 RMB/ton (-2.18%) for the week of May 5-9 [3] - The average price of thermal mixed coal at the Yulin pit in Shaanxi (5800 kcal) was 510 RMB/ton, down 6 RMB/ton (-1.21%) [3] Inventory Levels - As of May 9, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 7.53 million tons, up 8.03% week-on-week and 56.22% year-on-year, also at a record high for the same period [5] - The Bohai Rim port coal inventory reached 33.051 million tons, reflecting a 6.50% increase week-on-week and a 42.15% increase year-on-year [5] Production and Utilization Rates - The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 62.4%, down 0.5 percentage points week-on-week and 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, remaining at a five-year low [4] - The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 92.09%, up 0.09 percentage points week-on-week and 4.42 percentage points year-on-year, with a daily average pig iron output of 2.457 million tons, up 0.1% week-on-week and 4.7% year-on-year [4] Key Company Financials - China Shenhua (601088.SH) is projected to have an EPS of 2.50 RMB in 2025, with a PE ratio of 16, and is rated "Accumulate" [6] - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) is expected to have an EPS of 1.31 RMB in 2025, with a PE ratio of 8, also rated "Accumulate" [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report continues to favor domestic alternative materials such as MXD6, ion exchange resins, and semiconductor materials amid the backdrop of US-China trade tensions [1][22] - The US has confirmed that additional tariffs on Chinese products have reached 145%, which is expected to tighten the supply of imported new materials, making domestic products more appealing due to better cost-performance and timely technical responses [1][22] - Downstream customers in high-tech fields are accelerating the validation of domestic new materials to ensure supply chain security [1][22] Summary by Sections MXD6 - MXD6 is a high-performance engineering plastic with applications in automotive and drone lightweighting, expected to grow from a market size of $410 million in 2024 to $760 million by 2033, with a CAGR of approximately 7.1% [2][30] - Domestic manufacturers like Sinochem International and Qicai Chemical are breaking through technical barriers, with Qicai Chemical's 5000 tons/year MXD6 project entering trial production in September 2024 [2][31][32] Ion Exchange Resins - The high-end market for ion exchange resins is dominated by international giants such as Dow Chemical and Lanxess, while domestic leaders like Bluestar Technology and Zhengguang Co. are making strides in domestic substitution [3][41] - The report highlights that the recent antitrust investigation into DuPont in China may accelerate the domestic substitution process for ion exchange resins, benefiting domestic leaders [40][41] Semiconductor Materials - Global semiconductor sales are expected to improve in 2024, with an estimated sales figure of $630.5 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 19.7% [4][43] - The semiconductor market's steady growth is anticipated to drive demand for semiconductor materials, with a projected market size of $697.1 billion by 2025 [4][43]

2025 年 5 月 12 日 行业研究 国产替代主线不动摇，看好 MXD6、离子交换树脂、半导体材料 ——基础化工行业周报（20250505-20250509） 要点 中美贸易摩擦背景下，我们持续看好 MXD6、离子交换树脂、半导体材料等 国产替代新材料。美国白宫 4 月 10 日确认对中国产品征收的额外关税现已 达到 145%。随后，特朗普 5 月 8 日在白宫表示考虑降低对华关税。由于 "对等关税"的执行，部分原产于美国的新材料产品价格将进一步提高，叠 加前期美国政府有关政策，一系列进口新材料供应将持续趋紧。同时，国产 新材料产品凭借更高的性价比、更及时的技术响应服务等将更受下游客户的 青睐。此外，为了保证自身供应链安全，集成电路、面板等高技术领域的下 游客户也在加速针对国产新材料产品进行验证，加快了国产新材料的导入进 度。在此背景下，我们持续看好 MXD6、离子交换树脂、半导体材料等国产 替代新材料。 MXD6 可应用于汽车和无人机轻量化，国产企业突破技术壁垒即将放量。 MXD6 作为高性能工程塑料，其产品具有高强度、高刚性、耐高温、耐磨损 和耐老化、耐化学性、阻燃性、高阻隔性能等特点，主要应用于汽车 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that MAOGEPING has successfully penetrated the high-end market in the domestic cosmetics industry, driven by the expertise and influence of its founder, Mao Geping [2] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 11.7 billion, 15.2 billion, and 19.8 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with price-to-earnings ratios of 40 and 30 for 2025 and 2026 [2] - A target price of 125 HKD is set for the company, with an initial coverage rating of "Buy" [2] Group 2 - In April 2025, China's CPI turned positive month-on-month, with a stable year-on-year growth rate, influenced by rising food and travel service prices [3] - The PPI saw an expanded year-on-year decline, primarily due to falling energy prices, indicating a continued weak performance in domestic prices, although better than market expectations [3] - The report highlights strong resilience in exports to non-US countries, supported by the "two new" policies, which have positively impacted consumption and manufacturing prices [3] Group 3 - In April 2025, China's exports showed resilience with a year-on-year growth of 8.1%, surpassing market expectations, despite a slight weakening in overseas demand [4] - The report notes that high-tech manufacturing continues to perform well, and short-term growth in electronic products is anticipated before the implementation of tariffs under Section 232 [4] - The long-term impact of US tariffs is expected to be manageable as reliance on the US decreases and policies are optimized [4] Group 4 - The "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds" is expected to have a profound impact on the A-share market and the fund industry, potentially increasing long-term capital inflows [6] - Technology-related broad-based indices are likely to benefit significantly from this action plan, with strong performance anticipated in sectors such as home appliances, banking, transportation, food and beverage, and non-bank financials [6] Group 5 - The report indicates that the electronic industry saw a year-on-year net profit growth of 18% in Q1 2025, with a total of 670 companies reporting a combined net profit of 830.7 billion RMB [12] - The semiconductor sector and AI applications are highlighted as key areas for investment, with expectations for continued growth in domestic computing infrastructure [12] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the technology sector's future investment opportunities [12] Group 6 - The automotive sector's overall performance met expectations, with a focus on the anticipated boost in domestic sales driven by trade-in programs [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of smart driving and robotics, suggesting that companies with strong self-developed capabilities in these areas will benefit [14] - Ongoing attention to tariff policies is recommended as a critical factor for the sector [14] Group 7 - The report on the copper industry indicates a 22.5% year-on-year decline in domestic scrap copper production in April, alongside a decrease in inventory levels [16] - High operating rates in cable enterprises and expected growth in air conditioning production are noted as positive indicators for future copper prices [16] - Investment recommendations include companies like Jincheng Mining and Zijin Mining, with a focus on potential price increases following domestic stimulus policies [16] Group 8 - The report on the oil and gas sector highlights rising geopolitical risks and their impact on energy security, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices increasing by 4.0% and 4.6% respectively as of May 9 [17] - The report maintains a positive outlook on major oil companies and their service subsidiaries amid these geopolitical tensions [17] Group 9 - The agricultural sector report indicates that the pig farming industry has reached a capacity cycle bottom, with expectations for inventory reduction leading to a long-term profit upturn [18] - Key recommendations include companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, which are positioned to benefit from this anticipated market shift [18] Group 10 - The report on the electric power equipment and new energy sector emphasizes the potential rebound in solar energy supply and the importance of offshore wind growth [19] - It highlights the need to monitor changes in demand for power grid investments due to evolving technologies like virtual power plants [19] - Key players in the lithium battery sector, such as CATL, are noted for their stable profitability, making them attractive investment options [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [4] Core Views - The current pig price is on the rise, with the national average price for live pigs at 14.82 yuan/kg as of May 9, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.07% [28] - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has reached a new high since early 2023, indicating a potential turning point in inventory levels, which may lead to a phase of destocking in the industry [28][3] - The report highlights a significant differentiation in sales performance among listed companies, with some experiencing a decline in sales volume while others maintain growth [2][13] Summary by Sections Sales Volume - In April, the total number of pigs sold by 13 listed companies was 16.26 million heads, a decrease of 5.39% month-on-month but an increase of 39.69% year-on-year [2][14] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs has increased, with the average weight for April reported at 125.25 kg, up by 0.81 kg from the previous month [17][28] Sales Price - The report notes that the average selling price of pigs has remained stable, with most companies reporting price fluctuations within 3% [2][15] - The lowest average price was recorded at 14.32 yuan/kg by TianKang Biological, while the highest was 15.81 yuan/kg by DongRui Co [15][2] Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the current inventory levels are high, and the demand has weakened post the May Day holiday, leading to increased pressure on pig sales in southern regions [28][3] - The report suggests that the industry may be entering a destocking phase as the willingness to sell fattened pigs decreases [28][3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture for the pig farming sector [3] - It also suggests monitoring companies in the feed and animal health sectors, such as Haida Group and Ruipu Biological, as their performance is expected to improve with the recovery of pig inventory levels [3]