Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) [6] Core Insights - Xiaomi achieved a record high quarterly revenue of 111.3 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.4% and marking the second consecutive quarter with revenue exceeding 100 billion RMB [1] - The Non-IFRS net profit reached 10.7 billion RMB, up 64.5% year-on-year, with a net profit margin improvement to 9.6% [1] - The company regained the top position in the domestic smartphone market with a market share of 18.8%, a 4.7 percentage point increase year-on-year, and a 40% growth in shipments in China, significantly outpacing the industry growth rate of 5% [2] - The average selling price (ASP) of Xiaomi smartphones increased to 1,211 RMB, reflecting a 5.8% year-on-year and 0.7% quarter-on-quarter growth, driven by higher ASP products in the domestic market [2] - The gross margin for the smartphone business improved to 12.4%, up from 12.0% in the previous quarter, benefiting from an improved product mix in overseas markets [2] Summary by Sections Smartphone Business - Xiaomi's global smartphone shipments reached 41.8 million units in Q1 2025, a 3% year-on-year increase, with a notable performance in the Chinese market [2] - The ASP of smartphones rose due to increased sales of high-end models and government subsidies [2] IoT and Internet Services - IoT revenue surged to 32.3 billion RMB, a 59% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in smart home appliances [3] - Internet services revenue grew by 13% to 9.1 billion RMB, driven by a 20% increase in advertising revenue [3] - The number of monthly active users (MAU) for Xiaomi's internet services reached 720 million globally and 180 million in mainland China, both hitting record highs [3] Automotive and AI Innovations - The newly integrated "Smart Electric Vehicles and AI Innovations" business generated 18.6 billion RMB in revenue with a gross margin of 23.2% [4] - The delivery volume of vehicles increased to 75,869 units, an 8.9% quarter-on-quarter rise, with the ASP of vehicles slightly increasing to 238,000 RMB [4] - The YU7 series, a luxury high-performance SUV, is set to launch in July 2025 [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report raises the Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 46.4 billion RMB and 65.6 billion RMB, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 84.9 billion RMB [5] - The revenue projections for 2025 and beyond show significant growth, with a projected revenue of 492.9 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a 34.7% growth rate [5]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The total amount of special bond acquisition plans for stock land announced by various regions exceeds 350 billion yuan, but the actual issued special bond scale is low at only 56.1 billion yuan, indicating that the issuance pace needs further tracking [2] - Land "storage" is concentrated in regions with better economic and debt conditions, with issued land storage special bonds primarily from "self-audit" pilot areas [2] - Third and fourth-tier cities, facing significant destocking pressure, show higher enthusiasm for "storage" [2] Group 2: Industry Research - The report maintains a positive outlook on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing "three barrels of oil" and oil service sectors, recommending companies such as China Petroleum, China Petrochemical, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and others [3] - There is a continued focus on domestic substitution trends benefiting material companies, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, with recommendations for companies like Jingrui Electric Materials and Tongcheng New Materials [3] - The report highlights optimism for the pesticide, fertilizer, and private refining sectors, suggesting attention to companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [3] - The vitamin and methionine sectors are also viewed positively, with recommendations for companies such as Andis and Zhejiang Medicine [3] Group 3: Company Research - The report on the company New Yisheng indicates that it is a leading high-end optical module company, with potential high performance growth driven by 800G/1.6T high-speed optical modules, raising profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 6.721 billion, 8.883 billion, and 10.659 billion yuan respectively, with current PE ratios of 12X/9X/7X [4] - Longji Technology is positioned in high-growth areas, with an optimized business structure, and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 2.155 billion, 2.504 billion, and 3.044 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [5]

分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513066 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 2025 年 5 月 28 日 总量研究 专项债"收储"进展几何？ ——《见微知著》第二十三篇 作者 相关研报 我国哪些产品可以无惧关税压力？——《见 微知著》第二十二篇（2025-05-15） 今年以来"以旧换新"政策效果如何？—— 《见微知著》第二十一篇（2025-05-12） 从上市公司三季报看政策刺激效果——《见 微知著》系列第二十篇（2024-11-16） 政策组合拳出击，有效激活财富效应——《见 微知著》系列第十九篇（2024-11-01） 从中报数据看当前经济的微观结构——《见 微知著》系列第十八篇（2024-09-05） 为何高能级城市消费走弱？——《见微知著》 系列第十七篇（2024-08-14） 如何理解房地产"一揽子"优化方案？—— 《见微知著》系列第十六篇（2024-05-18） 财报数据显示当前经济的微观感受如何？ ——《见微知著》系列第十五 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is continuously optimizing its business structure by focusing on high-growth areas such as automotive electronics, high-performance computing, storage, and 5G communications, with revenue contributions from various segments projected for 2024: 44.8% from communication electronics, 24.1% from consumer electronics, 16.2% from computing electronics, 7.9% from automotive electronics, and 7.0% from industrial and medical electronics [1][2] - The computing electronics segment is identified as a significant growth driver, with a projected revenue increase of 38.1% year-on-year in 2024, supported by the acquisition of an 80% stake in Shengdi Semiconductor, enhancing market share in the storage and computing electronics sector [2] - The automotive electronics business is also expanding, with a revenue growth forecast of 20.5% year-on-year in 2024, significantly outpacing industry averages, and the company is advancing the construction of its automotive electronics packaging and testing production base in Shanghai, expected to commence operations in the second half of 2025 [2] - The company is diversifying into smart terminal RF, power, and energy sectors, developing advanced packaging technologies to support 5G, WiFi RF modules, and APU integration applications, while also advancing third-generation semiconductor power devices and modules [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 29.66 billion yuan in 2023 to 49.99 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.94% from 2024 to 2026 [4][9] - Net profit is expected to increase from 1.47 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.04 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant recovery and growth trajectory [4][9] - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards to 2.16 billion yuan and 2.50 billion yuan respectively, while introducing a new forecast for 2027 at 3.04 billion yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Viewpoints - The company is continuously optimizing its business structure by focusing on high-performance packaging technology and high-value applications, accelerating its strategic layout in automotive electronics, high-performance computing, storage, and 5G communication [1][2] - The revenue distribution for 2024 is projected as follows: Communication Electronics (44.8%), Consumer Electronics (24.1%), Computing Electronics (16.2%), Automotive Electronics (7.9%), and Industrial & Medical Electronics (7.0%), with all markets except industrial showing double-digit year-on-year growth [1] - The computing electronics segment is a significant growth driver, with a projected revenue increase of 38.1% year-on-year in 2024, supported by the acquisition of 80% of Shengdi Semiconductor, enhancing market share in the storage and computing electronics sector [2] - The automotive electronics sector is also expanding, with a revenue growth of 20.5% year-on-year in 2024, significantly above the industry average, and the company is progressing on a new production base in Shanghai expected to commence operations in the second half of 2025 [2] - The company is diversifying into smart terminal RF, power, and energy sectors, developing advanced packaging technologies to support 5G, WiFi RF modules, and AIGC computing energy solutions [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 29.66 billion in 2023 to 49.99 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.94% from 2024 to 2025 [4][9] - Net profit is expected to increase from 1.47 billion in 2023 to 3.04 billion in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 33.90% in 2025 [4][9] - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards to 2.16 billion and 2.50 billion respectively, while introducing a new forecast for 2027 at 3.04 billion [3][4]

2025 年 5 月 28 日 行业研究 新一轮环保督察启动，友道化学爆炸，持续关注农药和颜料板块 ——石化化工交运行业日报第 69 期（20250527） 要点 第三轮第四批中央生态环境保护督察全面启动。根据人民网新闻，5 月 26 日，根据《生态环境保护督察工作条例》，经党中央、国务院批准，第三轮 第四批中央生态环境保护督察全面启动。组建 8 个中央生态环境保护督察组 （以下简称督察组），分别对山西、内蒙古、山东、陕西、宁夏 5 省（区） 开展督察，统筹开展黄河流域督察和省域督察，同时对中国华能集团有限公 司、中国大唐集团有限公司、国家电力投资集团有限公司 3 家中央企业开展 督察，进驻时间约 1 个月。这是《生态环境保护督察工作条例》发布实施后 的第一批督察。此外，近年来宁夏等地已有多个项目因环保等因素关停。 农药行业产能格局持续优化，友道化学发生爆炸，氯虫苯甲酰胺供应受到影 响。农药方面，近年来我国扎实推进农药行业的减量增效，部分环保不达标 的中小企业陆续退出市场。当前农药原药价格已至底部，渠道库存拐点有望 到来，未来随着环保政策的逐渐趋严，农药行业产能格局将进一步优化。此 外，5 月 27 日 11 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a projected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company is benefiting from a significant increase in demand for AI cluster networking, with projected revenues of CNY 8.647 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 179.15%, and a net profit of CNY 2.838 billion, up 312.26% [1]. - The company has successfully launched industry-leading products, including the latest 800G/1.6T optical modules, and is enhancing its global presence through partnerships with major communication equipment manufacturers and internet companies [2]. - The company's profitability is improving due to refined management practices, achieving a gross margin of 44.72% in 2024 and a net margin of 32.82% [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue and net profit forecasts for the company have been significantly raised, with expected net profits of CNY 6.721 billion in 2025 and CNY 8.883 billion in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 136.84% and 32.17% respectively [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to reach CNY 9.48 in 2025 and CNY 12.53 in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing to 12X and 9X in the same years [5][12]. Profitability and Efficiency - The company has achieved a gross margin of 44.72% in 2024 and 48.66% in Q1 2025, indicating a continuous improvement in operational efficiency [3]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 45.63% in 2025, reflecting strong profitability and effective capital management [12]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a leader in the high-end optical module market, with its advanced products expected to drive substantial revenue growth in the coming years [4]. - The ongoing development of high-speed optical modules is anticipated to contribute significantly to the company's performance, supported by its strategic partnerships and technological advancements [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the petrochemical and chemical transportation sectors [5] Core Views - The third round of the fourth batch of central ecological environment protection inspections has been fully launched, which may impact the chemical industry [1] - The pesticide industry is undergoing capacity optimization due to stricter environmental regulations, with a potential price increase for chlorantraniliprole following an explosion at a major production facility [2] - The organic pigment industry is consolidating, with a positive outlook for high-performance organic pigments as domestic alternatives gain traction [3] - Investment recommendations include focusing on undervalued, high-dividend companies in the "three barrels of oil" and oil service sectors, as well as materials companies benefiting from domestic substitution trends [4] Summary by Sections 1. Chemical Product Market Review - The report highlights the current pricing trends for various petrochemical products, including Brent crude oil at $65 per barrel and WTI crude oil at $62 per barrel, with a notable decline in prices compared to previous months [9] - The report also provides detailed pricing for basic chemicals, fertilizers, and pesticides, indicating fluctuations in market prices [16][17] 2. Pesticide Industry Insights - The pesticide industry is seeing a reduction in capacity as non-compliant small enterprises exit the market, leading to a potential recovery in raw material prices [2] - The explosion at Youdao Chemical is expected to impact the supply of chlorantraniliprole, which may lead to price increases [2] 3. Organic Pigment Industry Analysis - The organic pigment sector is experiencing ongoing consolidation, with a shift towards high-performance organic pigments due to stricter environmental regulations and market saturation of traditional pigments [3] - The report suggests that companies with advanced production technologies will benefit from this trend [3] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the oil and gas sector, materials benefiting from domestic substitution, and those in the fertilizer and pesticide sectors due to favorable monetary and fiscal policies [4]

2025 年 5 月 28 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 重点交流 【房地产】地产持仓低配明显，持续关注优质标的——光大地产板块及重点公司跟踪 报告(增持) 展望 2025 年，部分高能级城市逐步实现"止跌回稳"，地产行业基本面企稳，板块 关注度较低，持仓低配明显，优质标的迎来"阿尔法"机遇：1）供给侧出清龙头地 产凸显，推荐中国金茂、上海临港、华润置地、中国海外发展、招商蛇口、保利发展 等，建议关注新城控股。2）看好物业服务长期发展空间，推荐招商积余、华润万象 生活、万物云、保利物业、中海物业、绿城服务等。 总量研究 【宏观】中游制造业支撑利润增长——2025 年 4 月工业企业盈利数据点评 4 月工业企业利润延续向好，一是，利润率改善带动工业企业利润持续回升；二是， 结构上，中游制造业利润加快增长，而上游及下游制造业利润同比增速走低，与出口 需求回落有关；三是，私营企业利润明显改善、国有企业利润同比增速回落。展望来 看，我国出口韧性仍存，国内制造业转型升级加速，叠加"两新""两重"政策激发 内需潜力，有望推动工业企业效益持续向好。 贝壳是国内最大的房产交易及服务平台，有望受益于地产修复，其他三翼业务 ...

自有+授权打造中国领先的IP玩具公司 ——乐自天成（H02155.HK）招股说明书解读 2025年5月27日 作者：姜浩 执业证书编号S0930522010001 梁丹辉 执业证书编号S0930524070007 证券研究报告 核心观点 乐自天成：国内领先的 玩具公司 公司秉持"IP中枢"战略，持续开发和推出多品类IP玩具，包括静态/可动玩偶、发条玩具、变形机甲、拼装玩 具、毛绒玩具及衍生周边等等。截至2024年底，公司旗下拥有超过100个自有及授权IP。公司覆盖IP孵化和开发、 产品设计及供应链和销售渠道各个环节，按2024年GMV计，公司在中国多品类IP玩具公司中排名第二。 中国IP玩具市场较为分散，具有较大潜力 灼识咨询数据显示，2024年中国IP玩具市场规模达到756亿元，2020-2024年CAGR为11.7%，预计将在2024- 2029年间以17.2%的复合增速增长。同时，2024年中国人均IP玩具支出仅为53.6元/年，远低于日本的244.7元/ 年与美国的387.0元/年，后续仍有较大提升空间。按2024年GMV计算，公司2024年总GMV为9.3亿元，在中国IP 玩具市场中，公司在本土IP ...