2025 年 5 月 5 日 公司研究 内蒙基地吨现金成本已降至 2.7 万元以内，组件海外业务实现跨越式增长 ——通威股份（600438.SH）2024 年年报&2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报，2024 年实现营业收入 919.94 亿 元，同比-33.87%，实现归母净利润-70.39 亿元，同比-151.86%；2025Q1 实现 营业收入 159.33 亿元，同比-18.58%，实现归母净利润-25.93 亿元，环比减亏。 硅料、电池市占率稳居行业第一，组件海外业务实现跨越式增长。2024 年公司 维持了硅料/电池环节的领先优势并在组件环节实现突破，高纯晶硅销量同比增 长 20.76%至 46.76 万吨，全年产销量约占全国 30%，市占率连续多年位居行业 第一；太阳能电池销量同比增长 8.70%至 87.68GW（含自用），全球市占率约 14%，连续八年蝉联全球电池出货量榜首；组件销量同比增长 46.93%至 45.71GW，海外销量同比增长 98.76%，斩获沙特、波兰等多国 GW 级项目订单。 2025Q1 在产业链价格持续下跌背景下公司盈利能 ...

2025 年 5 月 5 日 公司研究 两轮车&割草机器人高增长，盈利能力持续改善 ——九号公司-WD（689009.SH）2025 年一季报业绩点评 增持（维持） 当前价：62.75 元 021- 52523855 zhoufangzheng@ebscn.com 作者 | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 0.72 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 450 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 35.81/68.32 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 106.01% | 分析师：洪吉然 执业证书编号：S0930521070002 021- 52523793 hongjiran@ebscn.com 股价相对走势 分析师：倪昱婧，CFA -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2024/4 2024/7 2024/9 2024/12 2025/2 2025/4 九号公司-WD 沪深300 执业证书编号：S0930515090002 021- 52523876 niyj@ebscn.com 联系人：周方正 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | -- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The turbocharger business has become the core growth driver in the automotive parts sector, with a revenue of 9.86 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.12% [2]. - The aerospace parts business benefited from the development opportunities of domestic large aircraft, achieving a revenue of 1.26 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 46.14% [3]. - The company is strategically expanding into the robot parts business, positioning it as a key future growth area [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 1.753 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 51 million yuan [1]. - For Q1 2025, the operating income was 388 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.29%, and a net profit of 21 million yuan, up 107.58% [1]. Business Segments - The automotive parts segment generated a total revenue of 1.580 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 14.22%, an increase of 4.83 percentage points from the previous year [2]. - The aerospace parts segment's revenue growth was driven by increasing demand for domestic civil aviation components, with a notable improvement in customer and product structure [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 136 million yuan for 2025, 190 million yuan for 2026, and 262 million yuan for 2027 [4]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory in the coming years, with significant contributions from both the turbocharger and aerospace parts businesses [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.349 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 16.93%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 113 million yuan, up 11.54% year-over-year [2]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 330 million yuan, a slight increase of 2.35% year-over-year, but the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 32.97% to 29 million yuan, falling short of previous expectations [2][4]. - The pharmaceutical segment saw significant growth, with revenues reaching 382 million yuan in 2024, a 34.2% increase year-over-year, driven by substantial growth in both commercial sales channels and e-commerce platforms [3]. - The medical device segment also showed steady growth, with revenues of 923 million yuan in 2024, a 10.98% increase year-over-year, supported by a growing pay-per-use model [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1.349 billion yuan, with a net profit of 113 million yuan. The Q1 2025 results showed revenue of 330 million yuan and a net profit of 29 million yuan [2][4]. - The pharmaceutical segment's revenue was 382 million yuan in 2024, with a gross margin improvement of 9.46 percentage points to 47.7% [3]. - The medical device segment generated 923 million yuan in revenue, with a notable 25.23% increase in pay-per-use and leasing income [3]. Profitability Forecast - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 179 million yuan and 253 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 44.2% and 44.6% from previous estimates [4]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 328 million yuan by 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 45, 32, and 24 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leader in non-invasive screening for MASH, with its products distributed across major countries in Europe, Asia, and North America [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [5][7]. Core Insights - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, with revenue down 47.28% year-on-year to 2.673 billion yuan and net profit down 26.12% to 252 million yuan [2]. - The overall gross margin improved by 10.64 percentage points in Q1 2025, reaching 26.21%, while the expense ratio increased by 4.94 percentage points to 10.63% [3]. - The company is optimizing its store network and enhancing its product matrix, with a total of 4,831 stores as of Q1 2025, including 4,435 franchise stores and 396 self-operated stores [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 13.891 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.73% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.010 billion yuan, down 23.25% [2][6]. - The forecast for 2025 and 2026 net profit has been revised down by 9% to 1.044 billion yuan and 1.115 billion yuan, respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 at 1.173 billion yuan [5][6]. - The company’s revenue growth rate is projected to be 1.95% in 2025 and 6.34% in 2026, with a slight decline in net profit growth rate to 3.36% in 2025 [6][12]. Product and Market Strategy - The company has launched a new sub-brand "Zhuan Zhu Ge," focusing on cultural and creative jewelry products, enhancing its product offerings [4]. - The product matrix includes various themes such as national treasures, international art IPs, and cultural heritage, aimed at attracting diverse consumer preferences [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.565 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.35%, but reported a net loss of 26 million yuan. In Q1 2025, revenue reached 403 million yuan, up 7.52% year-on-year, with a net profit of 8 million yuan, down 46.91% [1][2] - The catalyst business has shown significant market expansion, with the internal combustion engine exhaust purification catalyst revenue at 1.453 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 3.90%. However, the industrial catalyst revenue surged by 65.73% to 13.8786 million yuan. The hydrogen energy product revenue was 732.06 thousand yuan, indicating continuous breakthroughs in business development [2] - The high-end composite material business is expected to become a new growth point, with the company actively developing carbon fiber PEEK prepreg technology. The composite structure project is under construction, with a planned annual production capacity of 1 million square meters of prepreg and 80 tons of aerospace composite materials [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1,565 million yuan, with a growth rate of 1.35%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -26 million yuan. For 2025, the estimated revenues are projected to be 2,270 million yuan, with a net profit of 57 million yuan [4][10] Revenue Growth - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth in the coming years, with projections of 2,906 million yuan in 2026 and 3,544 million yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 27.98% and 21.96% respectively [4][10] Profitability Metrics - The report forecasts a return to profitability with net profits of 238 million yuan in 2026 and 302 million yuan in 2027, indicating a strong recovery from the current losses [4][10] Research and Development - The company has increased its R&D investment to 110 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 26.44%, highlighting its commitment to innovation and development in new technologies [1][4] Market Positioning - The company has successfully entered new markets, including hydrogen energy and energy storage, with the latter showing a remarkable revenue increase of 309.47% in 2024 [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [5][7]. Core Insights - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, with revenue down 47.28% year-on-year to 2.673 billion yuan and net profit down 26.12% to 252 million yuan [2]. - The overall gross margin improved by 10.64 percentage points in Q1 2025, reaching 26.21%, while the expense ratio increased by 4.94 percentage points to 10.63% [3]. - The company is optimizing its store network and enhancing its product matrix, with a total of 4,831 stores as of Q1 2025, including 4,435 franchise stores and 396 self-operated stores [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 13.891 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.73% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.010 billion yuan, down 23.25% [2][6]. - The forecast for 2025 and 2026 net profit has been revised down by 9% to 1.044 billion yuan and 1.115 billion yuan, respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 at 1.173 billion yuan [5][6]. - The company’s revenue growth rate is projected to be 1.95% in 2025 and 6.34% in 2026, with a slight decline in net profit growth rate expected [6][12]. Product and Market Strategy - The company has launched a new sub-brand "Zhuan Zhu Ge," focusing on cultural and creative jewelry products, enhancing its product offerings [4]. - The product matrix includes various themes such as national treasures, international art IPs, and cultural heritage, aimed at attracting diverse consumer preferences [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The turbocharger business has become the core growth driver in the automotive parts sector, with a revenue of 9.86 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.12% [2] - The aerospace parts business benefited from the development opportunities of domestic large aircraft, achieving a revenue of 1.26 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 46.14% [3] - The company is strategically expanding into the robot parts business, positioning it as a key future growth area [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 1.753 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 51 million yuan [1] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 388 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.29%, and a net profit of 21 million yuan, up 107.58% [1] Business Segments - The automotive parts segment generated 1.580 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with a gross margin of 14.22%, an increase of 4.83 percentage points from the previous year [2] - The aerospace parts segment's revenue growth is driven by increasing demand for domestic aircraft, particularly the C919 [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 136 million yuan for 2025, 190 million yuan for 2026, and 262 million yuan for 2027 [4] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory in the coming years, with significant contributions from both existing and new business segments [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 5.1 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 100%, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 500 million yuan, up 236% year-on-year [4] - The growth in the electric two-wheeler and lawn mower robot segments is particularly notable, with electric two-wheeler revenue at 2.9 billion yuan (YoY +141%) and lawn mower robots at 830 million yuan (YoY +229%) [5] - The company is experiencing significant improvements in profitability, with a gross margin of 29.7% in Q1 2025, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 8.9%, up 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [6] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 51 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with significant contributions from various product categories [4] - Electric two-wheelers generated 2.9 billion yuan in revenue, with sales of 1 million units [5] - The lawn mower robot segment saw revenue of 830 million yuan, indicating strong market penetration [5] Profitability and Efficiency - The company's gross margin improved to 29.7%, while net profit margin reached 8.9% [6] - The report highlights a decrease in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios, contributing to enhanced profitability [6] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 1.8 billion yuan and 2.4 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 3.3 billion yuan [6] - The current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 25, 18, and 14 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in ABC component shipments, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 500% in Q1 2025, and achieved positive operating cash flow for the first time since Q3 2023 [4]. - Despite facing challenges due to declining product prices and a shift in battery technology, the company is expected to leverage its cost and technological advantages to maintain industry leadership [4]. - The company has made substantial investments in N-type ABC component technology, resulting in a dramatic increase in sales volume and a strategic entry into the centralized power station market [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 11.155 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.94% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -5.319 billion yuan, down 802.92% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.136 billion yuan, an increase of 64.53% year-on-year, with a net profit of -300 million yuan, indicating a reduction in losses [1]. Product and Market Development - The company experienced a 33.34% decline in battery cell sales, totaling 25.47 GW, due to a transition in technology and falling prices, leading to a 79.50% drop in revenue from this segment [2]. - Conversely, the sales of ABC components surged by 1194.58% to 6.33 GW in 2024, despite a slight decrease in gross margin [2]. - The company has successfully entered the centralized power station market, securing significant projects both domestically and internationally [3]. Future Projections - The report projects a recovery in net profit for 2025, estimating 247 million yuan, with further increases to 759 million yuan in 2026 and 1.228 billion yuan in 2027 [5]. - The expected revenue growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 86.25%, 14.74%, and 10.81%, respectively [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation summary indicating a projected P/E ratio of 78 for 2025, decreasing to 25 in 2026 and 16 in 2027 [5]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from -149.66% in 2024 to 21.22% by 2027 [5].