[Table_Page] 跟踪研究|专业工程 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 鸿路钢构（002541.SZ） Q4 新签金额小幅承压，产量略增 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2025-01-07 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -42% -28% -13% 1% 16% 30% 01/24 03/24 05/24 07/24 09/24 11/24 01/25 鸿路钢构 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]耿鹏智 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260524010001 | | 021-38003620 | | gengpengzhi@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 谢璐 | | SAC 执证号：S0260514080004 | | SFC CE No. BMB592 | | 021-38003688 | | xielu@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，耿鹏智并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 | [联系人： Table_Contacts]张子峻 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 zhangziju ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company [3]. Core Views - Aima Technology is a leader in the electric two-wheeler industry, with annual production and sales exceeding 10 million units. The company has a robust growth trajectory, with a revenue CAGR of 17.2% from 2015 to 2023 and a net profit CAGR of 22.3% during the same period. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.59 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, and a net profit of 0.95 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year [9][19]. - The company is expected to benefit from new regulations and subsidies in the short term, while long-term demand in the domestic market remains promising. The upcoming revisions to the national standards and the inclusion of electric two-wheelers in the trade-in subsidy program are anticipated to accelerate the replacement of old vehicles and enhance industry concentration [9][37][44]. - Aima's product matrix is diverse, with a focus on electric bicycles, which accounted for 61% of revenue in 2023. The company is positioned in the mid-to-high-end market, with a competitive pricing strategy compared to peers [22][27]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from 21.04 billion yuan in 2023 to 29.93 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 12.2% [2]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 1.88 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.82 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 15% [2]. - The company's EBITDA is forecasted to rise from 2.21 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.65 billion yuan in 2026 [2]. Company Overview - Aima Technology was established in 1999 and has been a key player in the electric two-wheeler market since 2004. The company operates seven manufacturing bases, primarily in Tianjin and Jiangsu, and has over 30,000 retail outlets [19][20]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the chairman holding 68.8% of the shares, indicating strong control and commitment to the company's future [20][21]. Industry Outlook - The electric two-wheeler industry is expected to experience a new wave of growth driven by regulatory changes and subsidies. The introduction of stricter safety standards is likely to phase out smaller manufacturers, leading to increased market concentration [37][44]. - The domestic market shows potential for growth, with increasing demand from both consumer and business sectors. The overseas market, particularly in Southeast Asia, is also seen as a significant growth area, with projections indicating a potential sales volume of 53.9 million units by 2027 [54][60].

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|机械设备 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 机械设备行业周报 海外燃机高景气，AI 敞口值得重点关注 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-07 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -24% -13% -2% 8% 19% 30% 01/24 03/24 05/24 08/24 10/24 01/25 机械设备 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]代川 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260517080007 | | | SFC CE No. BOS186 | | | 021-38003678 | | | daichuan@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 孙柏阳 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260520080002 | | | 021-38003680 | | | sunboyang@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 王宁 | ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 回首与展望，地产年度总结：房企 销售 下行压力一视同仁，买方市场适者生存 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-07 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -24% -13% -2% 8% 19% 30% 01/24 03/24 05/24 08/24 10/24 01/25 房地产 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]郭镇 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260514080003 | | SFC CE No. BNN906 | | | 021-38003639 | | | guoz@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： 谢淼 | | | | SAC 执证号：S0260522070007 | | SFC CE No. BVB342 | | | 021-38003637 | | | | xiemiao@gf.c ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The wind power industry is expected to experience a recovery in 2025, driven by the resolution of constraints in offshore wind and high bidding activity, with projected offshore installations reaching 12-15 GW [6][34] - The domestic wind power sector saw a total installed capacity of 39.12 GW in the first three quarters of 2024, with onshore wind contributing 36.7 GW and offshore wind only 2.47 GW, indicating a significant disparity in growth rates [18][22] - The report highlights a structural price increase opportunity in the supply chain, particularly in the turbine and casting segments, as demand recovers and supply tightens [6][34] Summary by Sections 1. Onshore and Offshore Wind Installation Trends - In 2024, the offshore wind installation was below expectations, with only 2.47 GW added, while onshore wind installations reached 36.7 GW, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.4% and 72.7% respectively [18][22] - The average utilization rate for wind power in the first three quarters of 2024 was 96.2%, a slight decrease from the previous year [18] - The report anticipates a significant increase in offshore wind installations in 2025, supported by provincial development goals under the 14th Five-Year Plan [6][34] 2. Pricing and Profitability in Onshore Wind - The report notes that onshore wind turbine prices have stabilized after a decline, with expectations of profitability recovering in 2025 [6][34] - The offshore wind market is expected to benefit from favorable policies and increased demand, particularly in Europe and emerging markets [6][34] 3. Supply Chain Dynamics - The demand for large-scale cast and forged components is expected to tighten, with the market for forged main shafts projected to reach 6.874 billion CNY in 2025 [6][34] - The report emphasizes the importance of production capacity and technological advancements in maintaining competitive advantages within the supply chain [6][34] 4. Investment Recommendations - Key companies to focus on include Mingyang Smart Energy, Goldwind Technology, and Sany Heavy Energy in the turbine segment, and Dayang Heavy Industry and Huadian Heavy Industries in the tower segment [6][34] - The report suggests that companies with significant offshore wind deployment and high overseas customer ratios will be well-positioned for growth [6][34]

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|证券Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 证券Ⅱ行业 公募行业总结与展望：避险与回归 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-07 | 相对市场表现 [Table_PicQuote] [分析师： Table_Author]陈福 SAC 执证号：S0260517050001 SFC CE No. BOB667 0755-82535901 chenfu@gf.com.cn -20% -14% -7% -1% 6% 12% 05/23 07/23 09/23 11/23 01/24 03/24 05/24 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 | DocReport] [Table_ 相关研究： | | | --- | --- | | 证券Ⅱ行业:从 ETF 视角看券 | 2024-12-17 | | 商投资机遇 | | | 证券行业 2025 年投资策略: | 2024-11-26 | | 正值云销雨霁，期待彩彻区 | | | 明 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of 38.18 CNY and a target value of 51.98 CNY [3] Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid growth driven by both organic and external expansion in the semiconductor testing equipment sector, with a comprehensive product layout including testers, sorters, and probe stations [10][15] - The company has established a strong competitive advantage in testing machines, with significant revenue growth and high gross margins [10][26] - The semiconductor testing equipment market is expected to grow, with increasing demand for domestic alternatives to imported products [40][46] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 17.75 billion CNY in 2023 to 35.34 billion CNY in 2024, with a significant increase in net profit from 0.45 billion CNY to 5.52 billion CNY [2][10] - The company’s EBITDA is expected to rise from 61 million CNY in 2023 to 766 million CNY in 2024, indicating strong operational performance [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.07 CNY in 2023 to 0.88 CNY in 2024 [2] Market Position and Strategy - The company has a well-established product matrix and has made strategic acquisitions to enhance its technological capabilities and market reach [10][62] - The acquisition of STI has strengthened the company's position in the AOI detection equipment market, facilitating entry into international semiconductor supply chains [62][64] - The company is actively expanding its product offerings, particularly in high-end SoC testing machines, to capture a larger share of the growing market [56][60] Product and Revenue Breakdown - The company’s main products include testing machines, sorters, and automation equipment, with testing machines accounting for a growing share of revenue [10][32] - The revenue from testing machines is expected to grow significantly, with a projected increase of 203.3% in 2024 [66] - The gross margin for testing machines is anticipated to remain stable at around 65% [66]

[Table_Page] 公司深度研究|专用设备 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 华峰测控（688200.SH） 测试设备龙头，8600 有望打开新增长曲线 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | 盈利预测： | | --- | | [Table_Finance] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1071 | 691 | 917 | 1154 | 1384 | | 增长率（ ） % | 21.9% | -35.5% | 32.8% | 25.8% | 20.0% | | EBITDA（百万元） | 556 | 240 | 347 | 460 | 581 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 526 | 252 | 341 | 448 | 560 | | 增长率（ % ） | 19.9% | -52.2% | 35.5% | 31.4% | 25.1% | | EPS（元/股） | 3.91 | 1.86 | 2.52 | 3.31 | 4.1 ...

[Table_Page] 深度分析|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 回首与展望，地产年度总结：土地市场 一边是海水，一边是火焰，资源质量显著上升 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 第一，开始于 21 年两集中时期的限地价、限房价规则陆续取消，定价 权交还市场，核心城市核心地块原本被规则限制的价值空间得以释放。 第二，稀缺地块的供应本身也加大了房企的土拍热情，一线地王区位 核心且利润率相对丰厚，参考 24 年末周边楼盘售价，地王平均总成本 毛利率为 32.5%。 第三，顺应中央对好房子的号召，各地规划限制放宽，阳台、架空走 廊等不计容面积增多，新规下的产品力显著提升，加强地块吸引力。 [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2025-01-06 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -24% -13% -2% 8% 19% 30% 01/24 03/24 05/24 08/24 10/24 12/24 房地产 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]郭镇 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260514 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Wens Foodstuff Group Co Ltd (300498 SZ) with a target price of 21 86 RMB [3] Core Views - Wens Foodstuff Group's 2024 performance met expectations with a significant turnaround in profitability The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9-9 5 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 241%-249% [7] - The company is expected to meet its 2024 slaughter target with steady growth in sow capacity The estimated annual profit per head of hog is around 280-300 RMB [7] - The company's broiler business also showed growth with a year-on-year increase in sales volume and a cost advantage The estimated annual profit per broiler is around 1 6-1 9 RMB [7] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 83 725 billion RMB in 2022 to 118 169 billion RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 9 0% [2] - EBITDA is expected to increase significantly from 330 million RMB in 2023 to 21 058 billion RMB in 2026 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from -6 390 billion RMB in 2023 to 15 836 billion RMB in 2026 [2] - EPS is projected to rise from -0 97 RMB in 2023 to 2 38 RMB in 2026 [2] Operational Highlights - The company's hog sales reached 27 14 million heads in the first 11 months of 2024, a 16 5% increase year-on-year The full-year hog sales are expected to reach 30 million heads [7] - Broiler sales reached 1 1 billion heads in the first 11 months of 2024, a 1 9% increase year-on-year The full-year broiler sales are expected to reach 1 21 billion heads [7] - The company's comprehensive hog breeding cost decreased to 13 4 RMB/kg in October 2024, and the broiler production cost dropped to 11 4 RMB/kg [7] Valuation and Ratios - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 23 92x in 2022 to 6 75x in 2026 [2] - ROE is projected to improve from -19 3% in 2023 to 26 1% in 2026 [2] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is expected to decline from 490 25x in 2023 to 4 79x in 2026 [2] Historical Performance - The company's stock price underperformed the CSI 300 index by 23% from January 2024 to January 2025 [5]