行业动态 第二届中国具身智能大会（CEAI2025）注册通道开启，将于 3 月 29 日至 30 日在北京市举行；2025 中国（合肥）智能 机器人产业发展大会将于 3 月 30 日开启。 公司动态 3 月 26 日，多家公司发布机器人相关动态：（1）智元机器人举办首届供应商大会，携手百余家合作伙伴开创机器人发 展新篇章；（2）特斯拉将在国会山活动和利雅得的电动车发布会中展示人形机器人 Optimus；（3）三花智控发布 2024 年年报，2024 年营收 279.47 亿元，同比+13.80%；归母净利润 30.99 亿元，同比+6.10%；（4）安徽合力与华为共同揭 牌"联合创新·天工实验室"。 （5）魔法原子：官宣"千景共创计划"，25 年将量产 400 台人形机器人；（6）它石智航宣布完成创纪录的天使轮融 资，总金额高达 1.2 亿美元；（7）乐聚总经理王松：机器人订单已经排到了五六月份。 核心指标 3 月 26 日机器人板块整体回暖，设备板块涨幅领先： 板块涨幅前三：设备（+8.7%）>丝杠（+2.8%）>散热件（+2.2%）。 个股涨幅前三：华辰设备（+20%）>蓝黛科技（+10%）>贝斯特（+7 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 projected at 18.6 billion, 22.9 billion, and 26.5 billion RMB respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 18, 15, and 13 [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 9.09 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.4%, with a net profit of 1.01 billion RMB, reflecting a slight growth of 0.8% [2]. - The fourth quarter saw a revenue of 2.39 billion RMB, up 22.1% year-on-year but down 9.0% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 76 million RMB, down 57.3% year-on-year and 73.6% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company is experiencing fluctuations in Q4 performance primarily due to the delivery schedule of offshore wind projects, with low-margin land cable revenue accounting for approximately 72% of Q4 revenue [3]. - The company achieved a slight increase in offshore cable revenue to 2.78 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 39.6%, although this represents a decline of 9.6 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company has a record high order backlog of approximately 18 billion RMB as of March 21, with significant increases in offshore cable orders [4]. - New production capacity is expected to be gradually released, with the Yangjiang offshore cable production base projected to reach 75% completion by the end of 2024, contributing to meeting current order delivery needs [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 9.09 billion RMB, marking a 24.4% increase year-on-year, while the net profit reached 1.01 billion RMB, a growth of 0.8% [2]. Operational Analysis - Q4 performance was impacted by the delivery schedule of offshore wind projects, with a significant portion of revenue coming from lower-margin land cables [3]. - The company’s offshore cable revenue showed a slight increase, with a notable improvement in sales price per kilometer [4]. Order Backlog and Capacity - The company’s order backlog reached a historical high of 18 billion RMB, driven by increased bidding activity in the offshore wind sector [4]. - The Yangjiang production base is on track to meet delivery demands with new capacity expected to come online in 2025 [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profits from 2025 to 2027 indicates significant growth, with a "Buy" rating maintained based on favorable industry conditions and company performance [6].

2025/3/27 1 2 行业框架：聚焦强军备战，把握需求供给新形势 3 4 需 求 端 确保2027年实现建 军百年奋斗目标 2035年基本实现国 防和军队现代化 2050年人民军队建 成世界一流军队 需求主体 政策目标 军费增长 阶段性需求放量 预 研 在 研 定 型 批 产 长定型周期 需求 特点 供 给 端 十大军工 集团 资质 供给主体 行业壁垒 供给格局 地方国企 参军企业 民参军企业 市场 渠道 资金 人才 技术 "大协作"：分系统配套和 零部件原材料供应立足全 社会布局，分层次竞争 "小核心"：军工集团进行 特殊武器装备和总体、关 键分系统、核心配套产品 科研生产 产业链 特点 高度分工协作 纵向产业链研究 原材料/元器件 部件集成 分系统 总装 资 金 传 导 产 品 传 导 从需求到供给 监 管 采 购 单一来源采购 竞争性谈判 公开招标 邀请招标 询价 定 价 激励约束 定价 招标 定价 询价 定价 需求端：装备发展部 供给端：国防科工局、国资委 空军 战略支 援部队 联勤保 障部队 预备役 部队 海军 陆军 火箭军 资料来源：iFinD，国金证券研究所 第一章第一节 需求端：强军备战 ...

根据国化新材料研究院 3 月 26 日发布的有关信息，赢创发布通知称其 VESTANAT® IPDI 的供应遭遇了不可抗力 因素的影响。其生产过程中碰到了无法预见且不可避免的技术难题。这一突发状况直接打乱了正常的供应节奏，导致 在接下来的几周内，赢创无法按照客户订购或请求的数量提供 IPDI。IPDI 作为一种在行业内应用广泛的重要原材料， 其供应的稳定性对于众多企业的生产经营有着至关重要的影响。赢创在通知中表达了对这一情况的重视和歉意，但由 于问题的复杂性，尚无法确定供应受影响的持续时间。 点评： IPDI 下游应用相对集中，对 TDI 具备一定的替代性。根据慧聪化工网相关信息和数据，异佛尔酮二异氰酸酯（IPDI） 是一种脂环族的二异氰酸酯，在塑料、胶粘剂、医药和香料等行业中应用广泛。与 TDI 相比，IPDI 作为固化剂的黏结 剂体系，能够使药浆保持更长适用期，同时以 IPDI 为固化剂制得的弹性体的断裂伸长率也更高。另外，IPDI 不含苯 环结构，其毒性远低于 TDI，目前 IPDI 正在逐步取代 TDI 用来制造涂料。从 IPDI 下游应用领域来看，我国 IPDI 的应 用主要集中在皮革、涂料、胶粘剂 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.77 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, with generative AI revenue reaching 2.4 billion yuan, growing by 103.1% [1]. - Adjusted net loss narrowed to 4.25 billion yuan from 5.41 billion yuan in the previous year [1]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 5.069 billion yuan, 6.920 billion yuan, and 9.538 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 34.38%, 36.51%, and 37.84% respectively [3]. Financial Performance - The company’s operating income for 2024 is projected to be 3.772 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.75% [6]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is expected to be -3.783 billion yuan, improving from -4.278 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a growth of 11.57% [3][6]. - The research indicates a decrease in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios, with R&D expense ratio at 109.5%, up by 7.8 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Business Strategy - The company is advancing a "large device - large model - application" strategy, focusing on AI visual and intelligent driving businesses, which saw revenue declines of 39.5% and 33.2% respectively [2]. - The AI visual customer repurchase rate increased by 31 percentage points, and the company is expanding into Southeast Asia and the Middle East [2]. - The company delivered 1.67 million units of its product, a 9.2% increase year-on-year, and plans to mass-produce a collaboration with Dongfeng Intelligent Driving in 2025 [2]. Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-sales (P/S) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11.61, 8.50, and 6.17 respectively [3][6]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -0.12 yuan in 2024 to -0.06 yuan in 2027 [6].

事情正在发生变化。一方面，外汇对货币宽松的掣肘正在减轻。另一方面，政府债发行加快，需要货币宽松的配合。 在这样的情况下，我们认为后续各类数量型货币政策工具或率先被使用。 一是央行可能再度开启国债买入操作。二是央行可能通过扩大买断式逆回购规模或者降准等方式，向市场投放流动性。 买断式逆回购的灵活性更高、空间更大，降准的货币宽松信号意义更强。相比于数量型货币政策工具，降息或尚需等 待。 风险提示 外汇变动超预期，汇率贬值掣肘货币政策取向。 国内基本面表现维持韧性，央行降息诉求偏慢。 政府债发行速度超预期。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 去年末以来，在降息预期较强的情况下，国债收益率无视央行多次提醒大幅回落，10 年国债一度跌破 1.6%。 年初以来，为扭转债券利率大幅下行，避免债券收益率过低对货币工具的制约，央行通过暂停国债购入、回笼流动性 等操作，有意引导国内资金面处于紧平衡，推动国债收益率回升。受此影响，DR007 利率持续大幅高于 OMO 利率，市 场降息降准预期持续落空。 2 月以来债券市场持续调整，国债收益率曲线转向熊平，1 年期及以内国债收益率重回 1.5%左右，10 年国债收益率相 比于此前低点回调 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating significant growth in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported Q4 2024 earnings with revenue of 2.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.5%, and a net profit of 330 million yuan, up 50.5% [2]. - The Q4 RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) showed a narrowing decline, with a decrease of 5.9% quarter-on-quarter, indicating potential recovery in 2025 [3]. - The retail business outperformed expectations, with a GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) of 2.59 billion yuan for the full year, reflecting a growth of 128% [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q4 revenue reached 2.08 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit also at 330 million yuan, reflecting a 49.9% increase [2]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was 440 million yuan, marking a 76.5% increase [2]. - The company achieved a hotel gross margin of 37.5%, up 7.6 percentage points, driven by asset-light strategies and efficiency improvements [4]. Business Segments - The retail segment's GMV for Q4 was 910 million yuan, a 125% increase, with online sales accounting for over 90% [4]. - The company opened 111 new hotels in Q4, totaling 471 new openings for the year, a 63% increase [4]. Future Outlook - The company expects a slowdown in supply growth in 2025, with improved demand driven by policy stimuli, leading to quarterly improvements [3]. - Forecasted adjusted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.66 billion yuan, 2.08 billion yuan, and 2.61 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 14, and 11 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 24.755 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.8%. The fourth quarter revenue was 6.489 billion RMB, up 10.4% year-on-year. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.144 billion RMB, down 1.7% year-on-year [2][4]. - The clean energy segment remains a key growth driver, with revenues of 17.183 billion RMB, a 15.3% increase year-on-year, driven by rising demand for LNG and industrial gases [2]. - The onshore business continues to lead in its niche, generating 11.67 billion RMB in revenue with new orders of 10.08 billion RMB, supported by strong natural gas market dynamics [2]. - The offshore business is entering a performance realization phase, with revenues of 4.66 billion RMB, a significant increase of 108.4% year-on-year, and new orders exceeding 10.86 billion RMB [3]. - Hydrogen energy business is steadily acquiring new contracts, with revenues of 850 million RMB, up 21.7% year-on-year, and new orders also at 850 million RMB [3]. - The chemical segment faced challenges, with revenues declining by 29.4% to 3.116 billion RMB, while the liquid food segment grew by 3.7% to 4.451 billion RMB [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 24.755 billion RMB, a 4.8% increase from the previous year, with a net profit of 1.144 billion RMB, down 1.7% [2][4]. Business Analysis - Clean Energy: Revenue of 17.183 billion RMB, up 15.3% year-on-year, driven by increased demand for LNG and industrial gases [2]. - Onshore Business: Revenue of 11.67 billion RMB with new orders of 10.08 billion RMB, supported by strong market demand [2]. - Offshore Business: Revenue of 4.66 billion RMB, up 108.4% year-on-year, with new orders exceeding 10.86 billion RMB [3]. - Hydrogen Energy: Revenue of 850 million RMB, up 21.7% year-on-year, with new orders also at 850 million RMB [3]. - Chemical Segment: Revenue of 3.116 billion RMB, down 29.4% year-on-year [4]. - Liquid Food Segment: Revenue of 4.451 billion RMB, up 3.7% year-on-year [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.38 billion RMB, 1.67 billion RMB, and 1.97 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.5, 7.8, and 6.6 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a significant price increase over the next 6-12 months [3]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 42.896 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.123 billion yuan, up 0.4% year-on-year. The performance aligns with expectations [1]. - The decline in H2 packaging water sales is offset by strong growth in health-oriented beverages. The revenue breakdown for H2 shows packaging water at 7.42 billion yuan (-24%), tea beverages at 8.32 billion yuan (+13%), functional beverages at 2.38 billion yuan (-3%), juice at 1.97 billion yuan (+7%), and other products at 630 million yuan (-12%) [2]. - The company is expected to recover fully in 2025, driven by a differentiated product strategy and refined channel operations, with significant earnings elasticity anticipated from a low base [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H2 2024, the company reported a revenue of 20.723 billion yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.884 billion yuan, also down 6.7% year-on-year. The overall performance met expectations [1]. - The gross margin for H2 was 57.3%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin remained stable at 28.4% [2]. - The company’s net profit for 2025 is projected to be 14.4 billion yuan, representing a 19% increase year-on-year, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27x [3]. Market Trends - The health beverage segment continues to grow, with the company focusing on promoting sugar-free tea and health-oriented juice products, which have shown resilience against market declines [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from a stabilization in market competition and a recovery in market share due to its strategic product offerings [2]. Future Projections - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 14.4 billion yuan, 17.0 billion yuan, and 19.7 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 19%, 18%, and 16% [3].

行业要闻 具身智能人形机器人综合性运动会将在 4 月 24 日至 26 日无锡市惠山区举办。 公司动态 3 月 25 日多家公司发布机器人相关动态：（1）Figure 将强化学习用于人形运动的端到端神经网络；（2）华辰装备与 福立旺签约 100 台磨床销售合同；（3）vivo 宣布成立机器人 Lab，入局具身智能；（4）飞龙汽车获国际知名汽车零部 件公司项目定点协议；（5）瑞松科技拟使用超募资金 9000 万日元购买松下互联株式会社高精高速并联机器人项目相 关资产；（6）奥迪一汽首次在生产基地试运行优必选人形机器人 Walker S1；（7）亿嘉和携手香港科技大学李泽湘教 授共同创立麟动科技；（8）魔法原子将于 3 月 26 日举办 2025 场景战略发布会；（9）星云股份与天机智能达成战略合 作。 核心指标 3 月 25 日机器人大部分标的股价下调： 分板块看，涨幅前三为：轻量化（+0.04%）>无框电机(-0.76%）>微型电机(-1.31%）； 分个股看，涨幅前三为：肇民科技（+9%，轻量化）>日发精机（+8%，设备）>安培龙（+2%，传感器）； 市值回调：亿嘉和、旭升集团、埃斯顿、日发精机、均胜电子、 ...