Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Electronics is "Buy" [6][11]. Core Views - The company's performance forecast for the first half of 2025 aligns with expectations, with a high degree of certainty in achieving the annual equity incentive targets. The shipment proportion of Miniled TVs is rapidly increasing, indicating an optimization in product structure [2][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 78,986 million HKD in 2023 to 116,552 million HKD in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17% [4]. - Net profit is expected to rise from 744 million HKD in 2023 to 2,125 million HKD in 2025, with a significant increase of 137% in 2024 [4]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to be 12.19 in 2025, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio is expected to reach 1.42 [4]. Performance Drivers - The company is entering a phase of performance realization, driven by two main growth engines: enhanced product competitiveness and a global mid-to-high-end strategy, alongside improved supply chain and channel management [11]. - The first half of 2025 saw a significant increase in the shipment of Miniled TVs, with global TV shipments reaching 6.95 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. The domestic market saw a decrease of 3.3%, while overseas shipments increased by 6.2% [11]. Earnings Forecast - The adjusted net profit for the first half of 2025 is estimated to be between 950 million HKD and 1.08 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% [11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.84 HKD, with subsequent years showing growth to 0.99 HKD in 2026 and 1.12 HKD in 2027 [11][12]. Market Position - The company maintains a strong global competitive position, with a well-established production capacity and a focus on digital transformation and automation to enhance operational efficiency [11]. - The target price for TCL Electronics is set at 11.76 HKD, based on a 14x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's performance and market positioning [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the nuclear fusion equipment industry, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by more than 15% [1][10]. Core Insights - The establishment of China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. marks a significant addition to the nuclear fusion industry, with a total investment of approximately 15 billion yuan from seven stakeholders, including China National Nuclear Corporation and Kunlun Capital, highlighting the growing importance of the nuclear fusion industry [3][5]. - The report suggests a focus on the nuclear fusion supply chain, particularly upstream equipment manufacturers such as Xuguang Electronics, Hezhuo Intelligent, Yongding Co., and Guoguang Electric, as well as listed companies within the China Nuclear System [5]. Summary by Sections - **Company Establishment**: China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. was officially established on July 22, 2024, with a registered capital of 15 billion yuan, aimed at promoting the engineering and commercialization of nuclear fusion [5]. - **Investment and Shareholding Structure**: The investment round led to a capital increase to 15 billion yuan, with shareholding distributed among various stakeholders, including China National Nuclear Corporation (50.35%) and Kunlun Capital (20%) [5]. - **Industry Landscape**: The formation of China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. signifies a strategic expansion in the nuclear fusion sector, complementing existing players like Fusion New Energy, which has also increased its registered capital to 14.5 billion yuan [5]. The industry is characterized by a diverse array of commercial companies, indicating a vibrant market environment [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [6][13]. Core Views - The company holds a leading position in lithium cobalt oxide, with strong downstream demand expected to drive both volume and profit growth. Additionally, advancements in NL new structure cathode materials, lithium sulfide, and lithium supplementation agents are anticipated to contribute to new growth points in the future [2][13]. - The company achieved stable revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with a projected revenue of approximately 7.534 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.04%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be around 307 million yuan, up 27.76% year-on-year [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 17,311 million yuan - 2024A: 13,297 million yuan - 2025E: 19,458 million yuan - 2026E: 23,279 million yuan - 2027E: 27,855 million yuan - Net profit (attributable to the parent) is projected as: - 2023A: 527 million yuan - 2024A: 494 million yuan - 2025E: 780 million yuan - 2026E: 942 million yuan - 2027E: 1,141 million yuan - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2023A: 1.05 yuan - 2024A: 0.98 yuan - 2025E: 1.55 yuan - 2026E: 1.87 yuan - 2027E: 2.26 yuan [4][14]. Market Performance - The current stock price is 49.90 yuan, with a target price set at 54.11 yuan, indicating potential upside [6][7]. - The company has a market capitalization of 25,184 million yuan and a total share capital of 505 million shares [7][8]. Growth Drivers - The company benefits from the national subsidy replacement policy and the increased demand for 3C consumer devices due to enhanced AI functionalities, leading to a significant increase in lithium cobalt oxide sales, which reached 28,800 tons in the first half of 2025, up 56.64% year-on-year [13]. - The company is also advancing in new technology development, including: - Lithium supplementation agents with high stability now in mass production - NL new structure cathode materials that offer improved stability and performance - Solid-state battery technologies with promising results from new synthesis processes [13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company with a target price of 88.51 CNY [5][11]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leader in traditional server and industrial IoT sectors, benefiting from early advantages in AI-enabled product upgrades. The rapid growth of its intelligent computing business is expected to drive performance beyond expectations [2][11]. - The company has established a strong foothold in the IoT overall solution market and is expanding its intelligent computing business, which is anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth [11][26]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 36.65 billion CNY in 2023 to 57.21 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.6% [4][16]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 330 million CNY in 2023 to 368 million CNY in 2027, with a significant rebound in 2024 [4][16]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.13 CNY in 2023 to 1.46 CNY in 2027 [4][16]. Business Segments - The company operates in four main business segments: Industry Terminals, ICT Infrastructure, Industrial IoT, and Intelligent Computing. Each segment is expected to contribute to overall revenue growth, with the Intelligent Computing segment projected to grow at a rate of 100% in 2025 [19][32]. - The Industrial IoT segment is anticipated to achieve a growth rate of 50% in 2025, driven by partnerships with leading enterprises in various industries [19][32]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a national high-tech enterprise and is committed to providing robust hardware foundations for digital transformation across various industries [26][32]. - The establishment of the subsidiary Tengyun Intelligent Computing is a strategic move to capture opportunities in the AI computing market, which is characterized by high growth potential and margins [11][26]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs both PE and PS valuation methods, concluding a reasonable market value of 221.65 billion CNY, corresponding to a target price of 88.51 CNY based on a PE ratio of 83.64 [20][22].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the expectation of "anti-involution" policies continues to drive up the prices of cyclical resource products such as steel, float glass, coal, and non-ferrous metals [1][7][9] - The real estate sales remain under pressure, affecting construction demand, with a notable decline in rebar apparent consumption and a continued decrease in cement prices [7][8] - The demand for durable goods shows a mixed performance, with air conditioning exports declining while domestic sales maintain rapid growth, influenced by high temperatures [7][8] Industry Trends Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales are still struggling, with a 23.1% year-on-year decline in transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities, and second-hand housing transactions in key cities down by 7.7% [8][11] - National retail sales of passenger cars increased by 11.0% year-on-year, while air conditioning domestic sales rose by 16.5%, but exports fell by 12.7% due to a retreat from "export grabbing" effects and tariff constraints [8][12] - Service consumption shows seasonal improvement, with a 35.0% increase in movie box office revenue week-on-week, although the year-on-year decline has widened, indicating a need for stronger consumer confidence [8][20] Midstream Manufacturing - The expectation of "anti-involution" policies has strengthened, leading to a rebound in steel prices, while cement prices remain under pressure due to weak construction demand [9][24] - Manufacturing activity shows a mixed picture, with automotive tire production rates improving, while overall hiring intentions have decreased slightly [9][34] - Resource prices are rising, with thermal coal prices increasing due to higher electricity consumption amid summer heat, and industrial metal prices benefiting from improved downstream demand expectations [9][43][46] Logistics and Transportation - Passenger transport demand has slightly decreased, but long-distance migration demand continues to grow, with a 4.8% increase in the migration scale index [10][51] - Freight transport remains robust, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volumes increasing by 0.7% and 1.1% respectively, while postal express collection and delivery volumes have seen a slight decline [10][53]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the non-bank sector [1] Core Insights - In the second quarter, the non-bank sector saw an increase in allocation but remains under-allocated by 4.72 percentage points. The effect of medium to long-term institutional capital entering the market is becoming evident, with optimism surrounding profit improvement and low valuations in non-bank stocks [3][5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The second quarter market rally led to an increase in institutional allocation to the brokerage sector, with the proportion of public fund holdings (excluding passive index funds) rising from 0.51% to 0.80%, still under-allocated by 3.02 percentage points. The Wind All A-Share Index increased by 3.86%, contributing to a 4.67% rise in the brokerage index. Notable individual stock movements include: - Dongfang Wealth's holding value proportion increased from 0.1093% to 0.1484% - China Galaxy's holding value proportion rose from 0.0285% to 0.0465% - CITIC Securities' holding value proportion decreased from 0.0889% to 0.1662% [5] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector's allocation increased from 0.84% to 1.40%, still under-allocated by 1.23%. The insurance index rose by 11.53% in the second quarter. Key stock movements include: - China Ping An's holding value proportion increased from 0.54% to 0.85% - China Life's holding value proportion rose from 0.016% to 0.019% - New China Life's holding value proportion increased from 0.05% to 0.13% [5] Multi-Financial and Fintech Sector - The allocation to the multi-financial and fintech sectors increased from 0.176% to 0.182%. Notable stock movements include: - Tonghuashun was reduced in allocation, with its holding value proportion decreasing from 0.092% to 0.063% - Zhinan Compass saw an increase in institutional holdings from 2.39 million shares to 4.36 million shares, an 82% increase - Jiangsu Jinzhong's institutional holdings decreased by 7.6% to 179 million shares [5] Investment Recommendations - The non-bank sector remains under-allocated, with a total under-allocation of 4.72 percentage points. The report recommends increasing positions in undervalued non-bank stocks, particularly those with a high discount rate relative to A-shares. Recommended stocks include: - China Life H, CICC H, New China Life, China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance - Leading consumer finance company Yixin Group - M&A targets Xiangcai Securities and Industrial Securities - Stablecoin-related stocks Zhong An Online and Lakala [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Increase Holding" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The new cycloidal reducer is expected to become an alternative option following harmonic and planetary reducers, with significant investment opportunities emerging [2][4]. - The report highlights the advancements in cycloidal reducers, which are anticipated to address the performance shortcomings of harmonic and planetary reducers, particularly in humanoid robots [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing rapid changes, with a focus on the development of lightweight and efficient cycloidal gear solutions [2][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zhongchen Technology, Shuanghuan Transmission, and Landai Technology for rotary joint modules. For linear actuator modules, Hengli Hydraulic is recommended, along with Zhejiang Rongtai and Demais [4]. - In the motor segment, Mingzhi Electric is highlighted, while encoder companies to watch include Yapu Co. and Fengtiao Technology. For dexterous hands and sensors, Hanwei Technology and Zhaowei Electromechanical are recommended, and for structural components, Changying Precision is noted [4]. Technical Advancements - The report discusses the technical improvements in cycloidal reducers, which are expected to enhance their adoption in humanoid robots. The torque coverage has expanded from 10N·M to 140N·M, with a fivefold overload capacity [4]. - Companies like Hechuan Technology and Keda Li's subsidiary, Kemei, are making strides in lightweight cycloidal reducers, with weight reductions of up to 73% compared to traditional models [4]. Market Dynamics - The humanoid robot joint transmission solutions are entering a phase of refined adaptation, with the potential for precise selection based on joint load characteristics. This could lead to a collaborative ecosystem of various types of reducers, accelerating commercialization [4].

Investment Rating - The report provides a comprehensive valuation table for various companies in the building materials industry, indicating a range of price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios for 2025E and 2026E [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the expected growth in net profit for several companies, with notable increases such as 90 million CNY for Conch Cement in 2025E and 100 million CNY in 2026E, reflecting a strong market position [1] - The PE ratios for the companies vary significantly, with Conch Cement at 15.3 for 2025E and 13.8 for 2026E, while companies like Jidong Cement show a much higher PE of 37.2 for 2025E [1] - The report emphasizes the valuation metrics, with companies like China National Building Material having a low PB ratio of 0.34, indicating potential undervaluation [1] Summary by Category Cement - Conch Cement has a total market value of 138.1 billion CNY, with projected net profits of 90 million CNY in 2025E and 100 million CNY in 2026E, and a PE of 15.3 for 2025E [1] - Huaxin Cement is valued at 31.9 billion CNY, with net profits expected to reach 25 million CNY in 2025E and 30 million CNY in 2026E, showing a PE of 12.7 for 2025E [1] - Other notable companies include Tianshan Shares with a market value of 43.1 billion CNY and projected net profits of 15 million CNY in 2025E [1] Consumer Building Materials - Rabbit Baby is projected to have net profits of 7.5 million CNY in 2025E and 8.5 million CNY in 2026E, with a PE of 11.2 for 2025E [1] - China Liansu is valued at 14.5 billion CNY, with expected net profits of 22 million CNY in 2025E and 24 million CNY in 2026E, showing a low PE of 6.6 for 2025E [1] Glass and Fiberglass - Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass has a market value of 15.1 billion CNY, with projected net profits of 10.5 million CNY in 2025E and 11.5 million CNY in 2026E, and a PE of 14.3 for 2025E [1] - China Jushi is valued at 51.5 billion CNY, with net profits expected to reach 35 million CNY in 2025E and 40 million CNY in 2026E, showing a PE of 14.7 for 2025E [1] New Materials - Zhongfu Shenying has a market value of 19.3 billion CNY, with projected net profits of 0.5 million CNY in 2025E and 1.5 million CNY in 2026E, reflecting a very high PE of 385.0 for 2025E [1] - Jilin Carbon Valley is valued at 8.5 billion CNY, with expected net profits of 1 million CNY in 2025E and 1.3 million CNY in 2026E, showing a PE of 85.0 for 2025E [1]

基 金 研 | | | | 年二季度国内公募基金份额点评 2025 | [Table_Authors] | 张弛(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 021-38676666 | | | 登记编号 | S0880525040075 | | 本报告导读： | | 倪韵婷(分析师) | | 2025 年二季度国内公募基金份额（不含货币基金）为 16.67 万亿份，较上季度末增 | | 021-38676666 | | 加了 3.76%。具体来看，新发基金 2507.06 亿份，平均份额 6.33 亿份，存量基金份 | 登记编号 | S0880525040097 | | 额增加 3538.39 亿份，二季度公募基金份额的增长同时来自存量基金的份额增长以 | | | | 及新基金的发行。 | | | 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 究 基 金 季 报 告 [Table_Summary] 2025 年二季度国内公募基金份额点评。2025 年二季度国内公募基金 份额（不含货币基金）为 16.67 万亿份，较上季度末增加了 3.76%。 具体来看，新发基金 2 ...

股票研究/[Table_Date] 2025.07.23 星动纪元发布新款人形机器人产品，产业发展 态势持续向上 机器人行业跟踪报告 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 机器人《人形机器人本体研究（一）：宇树科技》 2025.07.20 机器人《Optimus 将出任服务员，智元与宇树中 标中移动人形机器人大单》2025.07.19 机器人《智元&宇树获 1.24 亿订单，人形机器人 商业化加速》2025.07.14 机器人《机器人热点点评：字节发布高自由度灵 巧手，完善模型与硬件的具身智能布局》 2025.07.10 机器人《智元收购上纬新材，行业头部企业或将 加速 IPO 进程》2025.07.09 股 票 研 究 业 跟 踪 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 证书编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 毛冠锦(分析师) | 021- ...