本周投资建议： 6 月 13 日，国务院常务会议召开，会议指出，构建房地产发展新模 式，对于促进房地产市场平稳、健康、高质量发展具有重要意义，要 着眼长远，坚持稳中求进、先立后破，有序搭建相关基础性制度；要 扎实有力推进"好房子"建设，纳入城市更新机制加强工作统筹，在规 划、土地、财政、金融等方面予以政策支持。要对全国房地产已供土 地和在建项目进行摸底，进一步优化现有政策，提升政策实施的系统 性有效性，多管齐下稳定预期，激活需求、优化供给、化解风险，更 大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。本次国常会对房地产行业持续释放 政策积极信号，提出要进一步优化现有政策，从稳定预期、激活需求、 优化供给等多管齐下，预计房地产市场有望在宽松政策基调下止跌回 稳，前端设计标的有望迎来基本面改善和估值提升，建议关注主业发 展稳健，同时布局新兴业务，有望创造新业绩增长点的标的华阳国际。 近日，发改委下达中央预算内投资城市更新专项 800 亿元，支持各地 城镇老旧小区改造、城市危旧房改造等项目建设，涉及居民户数约 550 万户、受益人数约 1700 万人。此前，围绕推进新型城镇化战略， 提升城市安全韧性水平，已通过"两重"建设安排 20 ...

重点监测 32 城合计成交总套数为 1.6 万套，环比上周增长 23.2%； 2025 年累计成交总套数为 36.5 万套，累计同比下降 3.4%。其中，一 线城市成交 4854 套，环比上周增长 29.6%，2025 年累计成交 10.5 万 套，累计同比增长13.2%；二线城市成交9134套，环比上周增长15.1%， 2025 年累计成交 21.6 万套，累计同比下降 9.8%；三线城市成交 1953 套，环比上周增长 55.5%，2025 年累计成交 4.4 万套，累计同比下降 3.5%。 2025 年 06 月 15 日 房地产 更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳 周观点：国常会强调进一步优化房地产政策 6 月 13 日，国常会召开，针对房地产行业，会议强调更大力度推动 房地产市场止跌回稳。相较于过往 2024 年 9 月政治局会议首次提出 "促进房地产市场止跌回稳"，到 2024 年 12 月中央经济工作会议强 调"持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳"，到本次强调"更大力度推 动房地产市场止跌回稳"，政策表述逐渐强化。 我们认为，6 月核心城市二手房销量增长放缓，部分区域新房开盘去 化分化加剧的背景下，调控 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market - A" with a maintained rating [6]. Core Insights - TSMC reported a significant revenue increase in May, driven by strong AI demand, with sales reaching NT$320.52 billion (approximately US$10.7 billion), a year-on-year increase of 39.6% [1]. - Micron Technology's HBM market potential is expected to exceed US$35 billion in 2025, with a projected growth to US$100 billion by 2030 [2]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a robust demand due to AI data center construction and early inventory stocking, with the top ten IC design firms reporting a 6% quarter-on-quarter revenue increase [19]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electronic sector saw a decline of 1.92% in the week from June 9 to June 15, 2025, ranking 27th out of 31 sectors [31]. - The PE ratio for the electronic index is 49.32, with a 10-year percentile of 64.71% [42]. Market Trends - The semiconductor market share for TSMC increased to 67.6% in Q1 2025, solidifying its leading position [1]. - The global smartphone production in Q1 2025 was 289 million units, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 3% [25]. Investment Recommendations - Suggested stocks in the computing power supply chain include Shenghong Technology, Huidian Co., and Industrial Fulian [12]. - In the storage industry, recommended stocks include Zhaoyi Innovation and Jiangbolong [12].

本周上证指数跌 0.25%，沪深 300 跌 0.25%，恒生指数涨 0.42%。小盘股涨幅较 大，本周全 A 日均交易额 13716 亿，环比上周有所上升。在此，我们强调：6 月大 盘指数依然是在 407 黄金坑兑现后转入"震荡市"，临近震荡区间上沿就有回落压 力。中期来看，对于后续市场的三类预判：类比 2020 年（核心是由意外事件导致 中美欧政策步入同频共振政策周期，结构是以大盘成长为代表的核心资产占优）， 类比 2024 年（存在明确二次探底形成双底，结构是高股息为核心的杠铃策略）， 类比 2019 年（核心是新旧动能转换下大盘震荡呈现"俯卧撑"，结构上呈现消费+科 技"跷跷板"双轮动）。目前看"年初 AI 新科技 DeepSeek1.0"+"5 月军工科技 Deepseek2.0 时刻"+"创新药 Deepseek3.0 时刻"使得市场逐渐意识到"新胜于旧" 的定价思路，那么 A 股真有点像 2019 年了。 近期发生的一系列重大事件对于市场的影响值得探讨，总体而言虽然外部环境波谲 云诡，但对于 A 股资产定价并未造成明确"二次探底"风险。事实上，需明确：国内 5 月经济数据虽然显示内需孱弱，但在 ...

2025 年 06 月 15 日 调整或将以时间换空间的方式展开 本期要点：调整或将以时间换空间的方式展开 上周提到，我们虽然维持市场震荡偏强的判断，但将密切关注在前高 附近市场是否展现出有效突破的迹象；而如果一旦确认突破失败，那 么后续或将迎来真正的调整。实际上，我们的全天候定量择时模型上 周下半周发出了两次风险提示信号，未来市场或仍将承压。 整体来看，市场仍然处于一个大的箱体震荡格局。大盘已围绕该平台 震荡了近 3 个季度，而该震荡箱体的中枢位置或者说平均成本或在 3300-3350 左右。正如前期提到过的，市场当前整体处于大级别均线 系统的多头排列状态，如无意外因素出现，在多头排列过程中的震荡 往往可以看成是震荡蓄势的过程。因此，正常来看，市场整体的下行 空间或有限的。 但是，考虑到本轮调整出现在日线级别已经上行了三波之后，恰好处 于震荡中枢的上沿，而且出现了日线级别的顶背离以及日线 TD9 计 数，所以从纯技术的角度看应该看成是针对于 4 月初以来这一整波 上行趋势的调整。如果考虑常见的 0.382 时间回调比例特征，那么潜 在的调整时间或在 3 周左右。 也就是说，本轮调整或将以时间换空间的方式来展 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform-A" for the biopharmaceutical sector [6]. Core Insights - The biopharmaceutical sector is experiencing rapid growth, particularly with the inclusion of several innovative drugs into the national medical insurance directory, leading to increased hospital admissions [2][19]. - Notable increases in hospital admissions for specific drugs have been observed, such as the rapid uptake of drugs like Budesonide enteric-coated capsules and monoclonal antibodies from Kangfang Biotech [2][19]. - The report highlights significant clinical approvals and applications for new drugs, indicating a robust pipeline and ongoing innovation within the industry [3][4][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly New Drug Market Review - From June 9 to June 13, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were Beihai Kangcheng-B (up 118.12%), Oconview Biotech-B (up 28.59%), Junshengtai Pharmaceutical-B (up 23.75%), WuXi AppTec-B (up 23.63%), and Gilead Sciences-B (up 23.40%) [1][13]. - The top five companies with stock price declines included Sangamo Therapeutics (-7.41%), Nossland (-7.14%), Yiming Oncology-B (-6.10%), Hualing Pharmaceutical-B (-4.38%), and Yongtai Biotech-B (-3.48%) [1][13]. 2. Key Industry Analysis - The National Healthcare Security Administration updated the hospital admission data for innovative drugs included in the medical insurance directory as of April 2025, showing rapid hospital admissions for several newly included domestic innovative drugs [2][19]. - The drugs with the fastest growth in hospital admissions compared to March 2025 include Budesonide enteric-coated capsules, Kangfang Biotech's monoclonal antibodies, and others [2][19]. 3. New Drug Application Approvals & Acceptances - Two new drug or new indication applications were approved this week, including the inhalation solution of Revinase and the injection of Pembrolizumab [23][24]. - Nine new drug applications were accepted, including Bevacizumab intravitreal injection and various insulin formulations [23][24]. 4. New Drug Clinical Application Approvals & Acceptances - A total of 45 new drug clinical applications were approved this week, with six new drug clinical applications accepted [4]. 5. Domestic Market Key Events TOP3 - Lepu Biotech's new drug MRG007 was approved for clinical trials, targeting locally advanced or metastatic solid tumors [5]. - Nocera Biotech presented multiple drug research data at the European Hematology Association annual meeting, showing significant efficacy in treating various blood diseases [5][9]. 6. Overseas Market Key Events TOP3 - Bristol-Myers Squibb announced positive results for Deucravacitinib in a Phase III trial for psoriatic arthritis, significantly improving patient symptoms [10]. - Nuvation Bio's Ibtrozi received FDA approval for treating ROS1-positive non-small cell lung cancer, demonstrating high response rates and good tolerability [10]. - Merck's enlictide decanoate showed positive results in two Phase III trials, potentially becoming the first oral PCSK9 inhibitor approved in the U.S. [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [6] Core Insights - Quantum technology is expected to bring disruptive innovations in computing power, driving demand for quantum secure communication and post-quantum cryptography [12] - Major advancements in quantum computing have been made by leading companies, indicating a competitive landscape in the industry [13][14] - The establishment of dedicated quantum research centers by companies like NVIDIA signifies a strategic shift towards integrating quantum computing with AI [15][16] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Insights - Quantum computing is based on quantum mechanics, utilizing quantum bits for processing, which offers unparalleled information capacity and parallel processing capabilities [12] - The emergence of quantum secure communication and post-quantum cryptography is a response to the potential threats posed by quantum computing to traditional encryption methods [12] 2. Chip Developments - Microsoft launched the Majorana 1 quantum chip, while Amazon introduced the Ocelot chip, which significantly reduces error correction overhead [13] - D-Wave's Advantage2™ system marks a pivotal shift from laboratory to enterprise-level applications, featuring over 4,400 qubits [13] - IBM's roadmap includes the release of a large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029, expected to outperform current systems by 20,000 times [13] 3. Algorithmic Advancements - D-Wave demonstrated quantum superiority by solving a magnetic material simulation problem in 20 minutes, a task that would take traditional supercomputers nearly 1 million years [14] - Google's research indicates that a million noisy qubits could crack RSA-2048 encryption in a week, significantly shortening the traditional security period [14] 4. Industry Participation - NVIDIA's establishment of the Accelerated Quantum Research Center aims to integrate quantum hardware with AI supercomputing [15] - The CEO of NVIDIA has shifted his stance on quantum computing, predicting significant advancements in the coming years [16] 5. Market Performance - The computer industry index decreased by 2.25%, underperforming compared to major indices [17] - The report highlights the need to monitor long-term trends in AI, robotics, and self-controllable industries [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [8] Core Insights - The Thai government is advancing legislation for gambling laws, which is expected to further stimulate local tourism consumption [1] - The entertainment complex project is projected to attract at least 100 billion THB in private sector investment, with GDP growth expected to increase by 0.23% during construction and 0.2-0.8% post-opening [2] - The project is anticipated to generate 10-20 billion THB in tourism revenue and create 9,000-15,000 jobs, enhancing the local tourism industry [2] - The government plans to issue a limited number of large investment licenses, focusing on major integrated development projects rather than multiple smaller licenses [3] - Access for local residents will be controlled through a negative list approach, with the primary customer base being foreign tourists [4] - The Thai government is currently in discussions with four major international resort operators, including Wynn and MGM, showing significant interest in investing in Thai gambling [5] - The report suggests focusing on MGM China as a potential investment opportunity [6] Summary by Sections - **Investment Rating**: The report maintains an "Outperform the Market - A" rating, indicating expected returns exceeding the market index [8] - **Economic Impact**: The entertainment complex is expected to significantly boost tourism and GDP, with a projected increase in tourist spending to 22,300 THB per person per trip [2] - **Regulatory Framework**: The Thai government will issue a limited number of licenses and control project locations to maximize economic spillover effects [3] - **Market Access**: Local access will be restricted for residents, aligning with practices in Singapore and South Korea [4] - **Operator Engagement**: The government is engaging with major international operators to facilitate investment in the gambling sector [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the pharmaceutical industry [8]. Core Insights - The overall retail sales of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) in pharmacies showed a year-on-year decline in Q1 2025, indicating pressure on the market [3][19]. - The report highlights stable rankings among major products in various therapeutic areas despite the overall sales decline [18]. Summary by Sections Overall Situation - The retail sales of TCM in pharmacies increased from 143.9 billion yuan in 2017 to 168 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.23%. However, Q1 2025 sales were 41.2 billion yuan, down 7.67% year-on-year, attributed to regulatory pressures and consumer downgrade [3][19]. Therapeutic Areas - **Cold and Heat Relief**: Sales decreased by 6.90% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with sales reaching 7.3 billion yuan, influenced by lower respiratory disease cases compared to the previous year [4][22]. - **Nutritional and Health Supplements**: Sales slightly declined by 1.01% year-on-year in Q1 2025, totaling 5.8 billion yuan, impacted by consumer downgrade and high sales in the previous year [5][25]. - **Cardiovascular Health**: Sales showed a slight decline of 2.98% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with sales at 10.4 billion yuan, reflecting stable market demand [6][28]. - **Musculoskeletal Health**: Sales increased by 0.68% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 3.7 billion yuan, indicating long-term growth potential due to aging demographics [14][31]. - **Gastrointestinal Health**: Sales grew by 7.13% year-on-year in Q1 2025, totaling 16 billion yuan, reflecting a recovery in demand [34]. - **Cough and Phlegm Relief**: Sales dropped significantly by 26.80% year-on-year in Q1 2025, amounting to 4.8 billion yuan, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year [15][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [6] Core Viewpoints - The retail pharmacy industry is experiencing a decline in sales at physical stores, with a year-on-year decrease noted in May 2025. However, the structure of listed pharmacy stores is gradually optimizing, which is expected to lead to stable growth in performance [3][13] - In May 2025, the average daily sales per store in physical pharmacies were 2,769.8 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.09%. The average order volume per store increased by 4.57%, while the average transaction value decreased by 7.21% [4][15] - The retail pharmacy sector has seen a concentration increase, with the top six listed pharmacies holding a market share of approximately 17.94%. Despite a year-on-year revenue decline of 1.77% for the overall retail pharmacy market in 2024, these pharmacies are expected to achieve growth due to steady store expansion [20][21] Summary by Sections Macro Dimension - The market size of domestic physical pharmacies in 2024 was 611.9 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.77% due to factors such as declining transaction values and reduced product offerings [14] - In May 2025, the average daily sales per store in physical pharmacies were 2,769.8 yuan, which is a 3.09% year-on-year decline. The average order volume per store increased by 4.57%, while the average transaction value decreased by 7.21% [15] Micro Dimension - The structure of listed pharmacy stores is gradually optimizing, with several companies maintaining a high proportion of new store openings. In 2024, the proportion of new stores for major pharmacies was as follows: Yifeng Pharmacy (31%), Dazhenglin (25%), Laobaixing (31%), Yixintang (15%), Jianzhijia (38%), and Shuyupingmin (34%) [5][25] - The retail pharmacy industry is witnessing a further increase in concentration, with the top six listed pharmacies expected to achieve better-than-industry growth due to their steady expansion [20][21]