Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5][37]. Core Insights - The report analyzes the recent financial performance of major players in the food delivery sector, including Meituan, JD Group, Alibaba, and Bawang Chaji, highlighting the impact of the ongoing delivery battle on their operations and profitability [1][2][3]. - It emphasizes that the low-frequency, low-ticket order subsidies are the primary reason for the significant losses in the instant retail business, which includes food delivery [2][19]. - The report suggests that the platforms are likely to return to a more rational subsidy strategy, focusing on high-ticket orders to improve unit economics [2][19]. Summary by Sections Meituan - In Q3 2025, Meituan reported revenues of 954.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, but faced an adjusted net loss of 160.1 billion yuan, shifting from profit to loss [1][6]. - The core local business revenue was 674.5 billion yuan, down 2.8%, with an operating loss of 140.7 billion yuan [8][10]. - The food delivery segment is expected to see a 15% increase in order volume, but a 13% decline in revenue due to a decrease in average order value (AOV) and lower monetization rates [8][10]. JD Group and Alibaba - JD Group's Q3 2025 new business losses reached 157 billion yuan, while Alibaba's instant retail business incurred losses of approximately 361 billion yuan, with a per-order loss of about 5.3 yuan [2][17]. - Both companies are experiencing significant pressure on their overall performance due to the losses in their instant retail segments [2][19]. Bawang Chaji - Bawang Chaji reported a revenue of 32.08 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a decrease of 9.4%, with an adjusted net profit of 5.03 billion yuan, down 22.2% [3][21]. - The company has chosen a cautious approach to the delivery battle, avoiding price wars to maintain brand integrity and product strategy [3][32]. - The report notes that Bawang Chaji's same-store GMV declined by 27.9% in the Greater China region, reflecting the competitive pressures in the market [21][32]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading restaurant brands that are likely to benefit from increased subsidy efforts and are in a strong operational season, such as Guoquan, Haidilao, Yum China, and Xiaocaiyuan [3][37]. - It also highlights the potential of tea brands like Guming and Mixue Group, which are actively expanding their product offerings and private traffic strategies [3][37].

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis

Group 1 - The report indicates that in November, most bond varieties experienced a rise in yields, with all interest rate bonds showing a slight increase in yield [2][6] - Long-term low-grade credit bonds saw a decline in yields, with the 5-year AA- credit bond yield decreasing by 16 basis points [17][18] - The report highlights a rebound in default amounts in November, totaling 7.75 billion yuan, which is an increase from the previous month [27] Group 2 - The overseas economic outlook shows a stabilization in US inflation expectations, while economic conditions in Europe and Japan are improving [40][35] - Domestic economic growth in China showed a significant slowdown in October, with GDP growth dropping to 4.2%, down 1.1 percentage points from September [2][56] - The report notes that the high-frequency macro diffusion index for November indicates that domestic economic growth momentum remains weak [74][79] Group 3 - The monetary policy outlook suggests a low probability of interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, as the central bank has engaged in net absorption in the open market [93][104] - The report emphasizes a shift from "disconnected stock and bond markets" to a scenario where they are more aligned, driven by macroeconomic factors [106][111] - The bond market is expected to experience low-level fluctuations, with a continued decline in government bond financing growth anticipated for the fourth quarter [2][92]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Securities Firm Golden Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to optimize the selection of stocks from the securities firm's golden stock pool to outperform the benchmark index, specifically the actively managed equity fund index. It leverages a multi-factor approach and portfolio optimization techniques to control deviations in individual stocks and styles while aligning with the industry distribution of public funds[37][42]. **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use the securities firm's golden stock pool as the stock selection space and constraint benchmark. 2. Apply a multi-factor model to further refine the stock selection within the pool. 3. Optimize the portfolio to control deviations in individual stocks and styles relative to the golden stock pool. 4. Use the industry distribution of all public funds as the industry allocation benchmark. 5. Adjust the portfolio at the beginning of each month based on the latest recommendations and market data[37][42]. **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong alpha generation potential and consistently outperforms the benchmark index, reflecting the research strength of securities firms[42]. Model Backtesting Results - **Securities Firm Golden Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio**: - **Absolute Return (Monthly)**: -1.06% (20251103-20251128)[41] - **Excess Return (Monthly)**: +1.39% relative to the actively managed equity fund index[41] - **Absolute Return (Year-to-Date)**: +33.65% (20250102-20251128)[41] - **Excess Return (Year-to-Date)**: +4.42% relative to the actively managed equity fund index[41] - **Ranking in Actively Managed Equity Funds (Year-to-Date)**: 35.37th percentile (1227/3469)[41] - **Annualized Return (2018-2025)**: +19.34%[43] - **Annualized Excess Return (2018-2025)**: +14.38% relative to the actively managed equity fund index[43] - **Performance Ranking (2018-2025)**: Top 30% of actively managed equity funds every year[43] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Total Market Capitalization **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the size of a company, often used to capture the size effect in stock returns[26][27]. **Factor Construction Process**: Calculate the total market capitalization of each stock in the golden stock pool. Group stocks into quintiles based on their market capitalization and calculate the long-short portfolio returns for each group[26][27]. **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong performance in both the recent month and year-to-date periods[26][27]. - **Factor Name**: Single-Quarter Revenue Growth **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the growth in revenue over a single quarter, capturing the growth potential of a company[26][27]. **Factor Construction Process**: Compute the quarter-over-quarter revenue growth for each stock. Group stocks into quintiles based on their growth rates and calculate the long-short portfolio returns for each group[26][27]. **Factor Evaluation**: Exhibits strong performance year-to-date[26][27]. - **Factor Name**: SUR (Surprise) **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the degree to which a company's earnings or revenue exceed market expectations[26][27]. **Factor Construction Process**: Calculate the difference between actual and expected earnings or revenue for each stock. Group stocks into quintiles based on their surprise levels and calculate the long-short portfolio returns for each group[26][27]. **Factor Evaluation**: Performs well in both the recent month and year-to-date periods[26][27]. - **Factor Name**: EPTTM (Earnings to Price Trailing Twelve Months) **Factor Construction Idea**: A valuation factor that measures the earnings yield of a stock[26][27]. **Factor Construction Process**: Compute the ratio of trailing twelve-month earnings to the current stock price for each stock. Group stocks into quintiles based on their EPTTM values and calculate the long-short portfolio returns for each group[26][27]. **Factor Evaluation**: Underperforms year-to-date[26][27]. - **Factor Name**: Expected Dividend Yield **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the expected return from dividends, often used as a value factor[26][27]. **Factor Construction Process**: Calculate the expected dividend yield for each stock. Group stocks into quintiles based on their yields and calculate the long-short portfolio returns for each group[26][27]. **Factor Evaluation**: Underperforms year-to-date[26][27]. - **Factor Name**: BP (Book-to-Price Ratio) **Factor Construction Idea**: A valuation factor that measures the book value relative to the stock price[26][27]. **Factor Construction Process**: Compute the ratio of book value to stock price for each stock. Group stocks into quintiles based on their BP values and calculate the long-short portfolio returns for each group[26][27]. **Factor Evaluation**: Underperforms year-to-date[26][27]. Factor Backtesting Results - **Total Market Capitalization**: Strong performance in the recent month and year-to-date[26][27] - **Single-Quarter Revenue Growth**: Strong performance year-to-date[26][27] - **SUR (Surprise)**: Strong performance in the recent month and year-to-date[26][27] - **EPTTM (Earnings to Price Trailing Twelve Months)**: Weak performance year-to-date[26][27] - **Expected Dividend Yield**: Weak performance year-to-date[26][27] - **BP (Book-to-Price Ratio)**: Weak performance year-to-date[26][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][15]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to see a recovery in consumer demand as the year-end approaches, with a positive outlook for 2026 [3][10]. - The report highlights a differentiation in the performance of various sub-sectors, with beverages outperforming food and alcoholic beverages [2][10]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in leading companies within the sector, particularly those with strong growth potential and market positioning [3][10][15]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector has shown a slight increase of 0.03% this week, with A-shares remaining flat and H-shares up by 0.47% [1]. - The top performers in the sector include Hai Xin Food, Jia Long Co., and Yan Tang Dairy, with significant weekly gains [1]. 2. Sub-sector Analysis - **Alcoholic Beverages**: The report indicates that the liquor sector is in a bottoming phase, with premium brands like Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao expected to gain market share [2][10]. - **Beverages**: The beverage sector is experiencing stable demand recovery, with leading companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage recommended for investment [2][14]. - **Food**: The snack segment is highlighted for its growth potential, particularly in konjac products, with companies like Wei Long and Yan Jin Pu Zi recommended [2][11]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The recommended investment portfolio includes Moutai, Baba Foods, Dongpeng Beverage, Wei Long, and Luzhou Laojiao, reflecting a diverse range of opportunities across the sector [3][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth trajectories, particularly in the context of changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [2][10][15]. 4. Earnings Forecasts - Earnings forecasts for key companies indicate a positive growth trajectory, with Moutai expected to achieve revenues of approximately 183.5 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [4][15]. - Other companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Baba Foods are also projected to see significant revenue growth, driven by market expansion and product innovation [15][17].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月01日 主动量化策略周报 CANSLIM 行业轮动策略 12 月配置建议： 关注钢铁、银行、建筑、公用事业、电新等行业 核心观点 金融工程周报 本报告对 CANSLIM 行业轮动策略的样本外表现进行跟踪，从多个维度解析 行业景气度情况并最终给出月度行业配置建议，以供投资者参考。 行业轮动因子表现 上月以来（20251103-20251128），超大单资金净流入金额占比和券商金股 行业变动因子表现较好，SUE、PB 和单季度 ROE 增速因子表现较差； 今年以来（20250102-20251128），公募重仓股动量、SUE 和分析师认可 度和因子表现较好，而成交量调节动量、公募基金持仓行业变动和超大单资 金净流入金额占比因子表现较差。 上月组合绩效回顾 上月以来（20251103-20251128），行业轮动组合收益率-1.09%，同期中 信一级行业等权指数收益率-1.16%，组合超额收益率 0.08%。 今年以来（20250102-20251031），行业轮动组合收益率 20.48%，同期中 信一级行业等权指数收益率 20.20%，组合超额收益率 0.28%。 本月组合推荐情 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is focusing on core business growth and adhering to a new product-driven strategy, with a stable operating status and positive expectations for the restaurant sector and downstream channel expansion [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from improved restaurant expectations and channel expansion, with a good performance anticipated in the fourth quarter due to a low base in the restaurant channel and normal shipment rhythm in the third quarter [2][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Business Strategy - The company is shifting from a past channel expansion strategy to a new product-driven growth path, optimizing product combinations while expanding the market [3]. - The "Lock Fresh" series has maintained good growth momentum and profit levels even in a weak market environment, with expectations for the upgraded 6.0 series to drive revenue growth and profit improvement in prepared foods [3]. Channel Management - The company is enhancing its channel management, focusing on customized strategies for supermarkets and new retail channels, and is actively collaborating with major retail systems like Walmart and Metro [8]. - The company aims to improve its supply chain responsiveness and flexible production capabilities through differentiated operations tailored to the characteristics of various channels [8]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 15.76 billion, 17.01 billion, and 18.25 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.2%, 7.9%, and 7.3% respectively [2][8]. - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company is 1.42 billion, 1.54 billion, and 1.66 billion yuan for the same period, with year-on-year changes of -4.4%, 8.8%, and 7.2% respectively [2][8].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Securities Firm Golden Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to optimize the selection of stocks from the securities firm golden stock pool, using a multi-factor approach to achieve stable outperformance relative to the benchmark index (Active Equity Hybrid Fund Index) [37][42] **Model Construction Process**: 1. The securities firm golden stock pool is used as the stock selection space and constraint benchmark [42] 2. The portfolio optimization method is applied to control deviations in individual stocks and styles between the portfolio and the golden stock pool [42] 3. The industry allocation is based on the distribution of all public funds [42] 4. The portfolio's benchmark is the Active Equity Hybrid Fund Index, and the portfolio's position last month was 90.48% [37] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong alpha generation potential and stable performance, consistently outperforming the benchmark index over multiple years [42][43] Model Backtesting Results - **Securities Firm Golden Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio**: - **Absolute Return (Monthly)**: -1.06% [41] - **Excess Return (Monthly)**: 1.39% relative to the Active Equity Hybrid Fund Index [41] - **Absolute Return (Year-to-Date)**: 33.65% [41] - **Excess Return (Year-to-Date)**: 4.42% relative to the Active Equity Hybrid Fund Index [41] - **Ranking in Active Equity Funds (Year-to-Date)**: 35.37% percentile (1227/3469) [41] - **Annualized Return (2018-2025)**: 19.34% [43] - **Annualized Excess Return (2018-2025)**: 14.38% relative to the Active Equity Hybrid Fund Index [43] - **Performance Ranking (2018-2025)**: Top 30% of active equity funds every year [43] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Total Market Capitalization **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the size of a company, often used to capture size-related effects in stock returns [26][27] **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrated strong performance both in the past month and year-to-date [26][27] - **Factor Name**: Single-Quarter Surprise (SUR) **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the degree of earnings surprise in a single quarter, capturing the market's reaction to unexpected earnings [26][27] **Factor Evaluation**: Performed well in both the past month and year-to-date [26][27] - **Factor Name**: Single-Quarter Revenue Growth **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks the growth rate of revenue in a single quarter, reflecting a company's operational growth [26][27] **Factor Evaluation**: Strong performance year-to-date [26][27] - **Factor Name**: EPTTM (Earnings to Price Trailing Twelve Months) **Factor Construction Idea**: A valuation factor that measures earnings relative to price over the trailing twelve months [26][27] **Factor Evaluation**: Underperformed year-to-date [26][27] - **Factor Name**: Expected Dividend Yield **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the expected dividend income relative to the stock price, often used as an income-focused valuation metric [26][27] **Factor Evaluation**: Underperformed year-to-date [26][27] - **Factor Name**: BP (Book-to-Price Ratio) **Factor Construction Idea**: A valuation factor that measures the book value of equity relative to the stock price [26][27] **Factor Evaluation**: Underperformed year-to-date [26][27] Factor Backtesting Results - **Total Market Capitalization**: Strong performance in both the past month and year-to-date [26][27] - **Single-Quarter Surprise (SUR)**: Strong performance in both the past month and year-to-date [26][27] - **Single-Quarter Revenue Growth**: Strong performance year-to-date [26][27] - **EPTTM**: Weak performance year-to-date [26][27] - **Expected Dividend Yield**: Weak performance year-to-date [26][27] - **BP (Book-to-Price Ratio)**: Weak performance year-to-date [26][27]

- The report highlights that in November 2025, the top-performing factors in the broker's gold stock pool were total market capitalization, single-quarter revenue surprise, and SUR, while factors like intraday return, analyst net upgrade magnitude, and analyst net upgrade ratio performed poorly[3][26] - For the year 2025, the best-performing factors were total market capitalization, single-quarter revenue growth, and SUR, whereas EPTTM, expected dividend yield, and BP underperformed[3][26] - The broker's gold stock performance enhancement portfolio achieved an absolute return of -1.06% for the month (20251103-20251128) and an excess return of 1.39% relative to the mixed equity fund index[5][41] - For the year (20250102-20251128), the portfolio achieved an absolute return of 33.65% and an excess return of 4.42% relative to the mixed equity fund index, ranking in the 35.37% percentile among active equity funds[5][41] - The broker's gold stock performance enhancement portfolio has consistently outperformed the mixed equity fund index from 2018 to 2022, ranking in the top 30% of active equity funds each year[12][37][43]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月01日 主动量化策略周报 CANSLIM 行业轮动策略 12 月配置建议： 关注钢铁、银行、建筑、公用事业、电新等行业 本报告对 CANSLIM 行业轮动策略的样本外表现进行跟踪，从多个维度解析 行业景气度情况并最终给出月度行业配置建议，以供投资者参考。 行业轮动因子表现 上月以来（20251103-20251128），超大单资金净流入金额占比和券商金股 行业变动因子表现较好，SUE、PB 和单季度 ROE 增速因子表现较差； 今年以来（20250102-20251128），公募重仓股动量、SUE 和分析师认可 度和因子表现较好，而成交量调节动量、公募基金持仓行业变动和超大单资 金净流入金额占比因子表现较差。 上月组合绩效回顾 上月以来（20251103-20251128），行业轮动组合收益率-1.09%，同期中 信一级行业等权指数收益率-1.16%，组合超额收益率 0.08%。 今年以来（20250102-20251031），行业轮动组合收益率 20.48%，同期中 信一级行业等权指数收益率 20.20%，组合超额收益率 0.28%。 本月组合推荐情况 我们借鉴 CANSL ...