Macro and Strategy - The upstream resource sector is stabilizing, with coal prices slightly rising, while the oil and petrochemical sectors remain weak, with significant year-on-year declines in refined oil and natural gas prices [7][8] - The manufacturing sector shows overall recovery, with strong performance in machinery and equipment, while the automotive industry is gradually improving [7] - Consumer sectors are experiencing mixed recovery, with real estate showing marginal improvement and entertainment sectors rebounding significantly [8] Industry and Company - The Hong Kong stock market's December investment strategy suggests that the November pullback has created a favorable environment for 2026 [9] - The electronics sector is optimistic, with ASICs expected to open new markets and Quark's smart glasses enhancing AI edge trends [11][12] - The mechanical industry is focusing on humanoid robots and AI infrastructure, with significant developments in robot operating systems and standardization efforts [17][18] Investment Recommendations - Focus on AI-related sectors, including hardware localization and AI applications, as they are expected to be crucial in 2026 [10] - The materials and industrial sectors are anticipated to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend, with upstream metals and certain industrial companies likely to gain [10] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is stable and worth holding, with potential for growth upon new project releases [10] Market Performance - The global smartphone market is projected to grow by 3.3% in 2025, with Apple expected to become the leading smartphone brand for the first time since 2011 [15][16] - The semiconductor industry is seeing broad growth, with companies like ADI reporting significant revenue increases and positive outlooks for 2026 [16] Key Events and Developments - The launch of Quark's smart glasses and Google's potential sale of TPU chips are notable developments in the electronics sector [12][13] - The introduction of new DDR5 and LPDDR5X products by Changxin Storage indicates growth opportunities in the storage market [14] Focused Investment Areas - Emphasis on humanoid robots and AI infrastructure, with specific attention to companies involved in energy supply and cooling solutions for AI data centers [19][21] - The low-altitude economy and smart welding robots are emerging sectors with significant growth potential [21][22]

- The provided content does not include any quantitative models or factors, nor their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry [1][9]. Core Viewpoints - The electronic sector is expected to benefit from high growth in overseas AI computing demand, with a focus on innovative products such as AI smartphones, AI glasses, and foldable screens anticipated to drive market activity in early 2026 [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of patience in investment strategy, suggesting that time can create space for better opportunities in the sector [2]. - The report highlights the potential for domestic companies in the ASIC market, particularly with Google's plans to expand its TPU business, which could enhance market size for cloud inference solutions [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%, while the electronic sector increased by 6.05% over the past week, with components up by 8.10% and electronic chemicals up by 3.93% [2][10]. - The report notes that the electronic sector's recent underperformance was primarily due to the reduction of national subsidies, export rush in Q2, and price increases in memory shortages [2]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Aojie Technology - Jiangbolong - Demingli - Lens Technology - Luxshare Precision - Lantech Optical - Hengxuan Technology - Lanke Technology - SMIC - Saiwei Electronics - Tianyue Advanced [2]. Product Innovations - Quark's smart glasses S1 were officially launched, featuring a dual-chip architecture and advanced optical solutions, indicating a significant opportunity in the AR glasses market [3]. - Longxin Storage showcased new DDR5 and LPDDR5X products, with expectations for growth driven by domestic production and price recovery in the storage sector [4]. Global Smartphone Market Outlook - The global smartphone shipment is projected to grow by 3.3% in 2025, with Apple expected to capture a 19.4% market share, making it the leading smartphone brand for the first time since 2011 [5][7]. - The report continues to recommend companies within Apple's supply chain, including Luxshare Precision and Industrial Fulian [7]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for key companies, with most rated as "Outperform" and showing positive EPS growth projections for 2025 and 2026 [9].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the adjustment in the Hong Kong stock market in November has created space for growth in 2026, with a focus on sectors such as AI, materials, and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][64][82] - The report highlights the importance of AI in driving productivity improvements across industries, particularly in the software sector, where per capita income has increased from 750,000 to 870,000 yuan over the past five years [1][59][61] - The report notes that the "anti-involution" trend is expected to positively impact PPI recovery and overall corporate profitability, with a significant reduction in losses for struggling companies [1][55][58] Group 2 - The report suggests that the AI sector remains a key focus for 2026, driven by the need for domestic hardware production and the expectation of more AI applications being implemented [2][82] - The materials and industrial sectors are expected to benefit from the anti-involution trend, with upstream metals and certain industrial enterprises poised to gain [2][82] - The report indicates that the innovative pharmaceutical sector is stable and worth holding, with potential for growth if new business development projects are released [2][82] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of the Hong Kong stock market in November, noting a slight adjustment of 0.2% in the Hang Seng Index, with significant sector differentiation [64][66] - It highlights that the consumer and innovative pharmaceutical sectors showed positive performance, while technology and automotive sectors faced declines [64][66] - The report mentions that the inflow of southbound funds reached 117.2 billion yuan in November, indicating strong willingness from Chinese capital to invest in Hong Kong stocks despite market downturns [75][82]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月02日 港股 12 月投资策略 优于大市 11 月的回调为 2026 年赢得确定空间 美国：12 月份降息预期飙至近 90%。11 月，当美联储还试图用缺乏数据的 理由来给降息预期降温时，PMI、裁员（挑战者）、消费、褐皮书等多 重数据显示当下美国经济已经面临较大的压力，故而以纽约联储主席为 代表的降息主张迅速占据上风。 2026 年早些时候，预计股票市场可能会较为温和，不会有大幅下跌的风险， 理由是美联储的托底，但实际时薪的下行依然会导致经济表现较弱。美元指 数将进一步走弱，这将利于新兴市场的股票表现。 A 股：反内卷与效率进步是看点。11 月的经济数据受到房地产、服务业的 下行而表现偏弱。对于 PPI 恢复的预期很大程度上源自反内卷，亏损企 业亏损额同比继续降低就是比较积极的信号。 此外，劳动生产率已经在 AI 的驱动下改善，软件行业表现较为显著。 在过去的 5 年中，A 股软件行业人均效率持续提升，从人均收入 75 万元 提升至 87 万元，市场已经在悄然定价这种转变。考虑到大模型正在快 速迭代，AI 对企业效率的提升可能会在 2026 年变得更加广泛和深入。 港股：短 ...

Group 1 - The overall performance of upstream resource products remains low, but internal structure continues to differentiate, with coal industry stability and slight price increases in thermal coal [4] - The manufacturing sector shows an overall recovery, with notable performance in machinery and equipment, while the automotive industry is experiencing marginal improvements [4] - Downstream consumption sectors exhibit varied recovery dynamics, with significant improvements in social services and entertainment, while the real estate sector shows signs of marginal recovery [4] Group 2 - The banking system maintains ample liquidity, with stable growth in M2 and social financing, indicating marginal improvements in the funding environment [4] - The transportation sector shows continued differentiation, with significant growth in port container throughput, while comprehensive freight rates face slight pressure due to geopolitical and supply-demand factors [4] - The environmental sector is experiencing a recovery in performance, with improved air quality rates and sustained high levels of related infrastructure investment [4] Group 3 - The chemical industry is under pressure, with prices of PVC and methanol continuing to decline, while the performance of the basic chemical sector is closely linked to fuel oil and methanol futures prices [5][10] - The steel industry shows a correlation between excess returns and various operational metrics, including iron ore operating rates and steel production inventories [21][25] - The non-ferrous metals sector maintains relative stability, with slight increases in copper and aluminum prices, and its performance is linked to the LME base metals index [27][32] Group 4 - The construction materials sector is facing weak demand, with cement and glass prices remaining in negative territory, and its performance is correlated with cement price indices [38][39] - The coal industry shows a correlation between excess returns and thermal coal closing prices, indicating a relationship with market dynamics [39][43] - The oil and petrochemical sector continues to experience weak performance, with expanding year-on-year declines in gasoline and natural gas prices [44] Group 5 - The electric equipment sector's performance is linked to the prices of photovoltaic components and polysilicon, indicating a recovery phase [46][52] - The automotive sector shows a correlation between excess returns and tire operating rates, with daily average sales of passenger vehicles also being a significant indicator [54][60] - The machinery sector's performance is associated with the BPI and machinery price indices, reflecting its recovery trajectory [61][62] Group 6 - The retail sector's performance is linked to the Yiwu order price index, indicating a recovery in trade activities [89] - The agricultural sector shows a correlation between excess returns and the food price index, with specific attention to the dynamics of vegetable prices and pig feed ratios [92][93] - The food and beverage sector's performance is associated with various agricultural product price indices, reflecting market trends [94][98]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月02日 港股 12 月投资策略 优于大市 11 月的回调为 2026 年赢得确定空间 美国：12 月份降息预期飙至近 90%。11 月，当美联储还试图用缺乏数据的 理由来给降息预期降温时，PMI、裁员（挑战者）、消费、褐皮书等多 重数据显示当下美国经济已经面临较大的压力，故而以纽约联储主席为 代表的降息主张迅速占据上风。 2026 年早些时候，预计股票市场可能会较为温和，不会有大幅下跌的风险， 理由是美联储的托底，但实际时薪的下行依然会导致经济表现较弱。美元指 数将进一步走弱，这将利于新兴市场的股票表现。 A 股：反内卷与效率进步是看点。11 月的经济数据受到房地产、服务业的 下行而表现偏弱。对于 PPI 恢复的预期很大程度上源自反内卷，亏损企 业亏损额同比继续降低就是比较积极的信号。 此外，劳动生产率已经在 AI 的驱动下改善，软件行业表现较为显著。 在过去的 5 年中，A 股软件行业人均效率持续提升，从人均收入 75 万元 提升至 87 万元，市场已经在悄然定价这种转变。考虑到大模型正在快 速迭代，AI 对企业效率的提升可能会在 2026 年变得更加广泛和深入。 港股：短 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月02日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-01 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3914.00 | 13146.71 | 4576.48 | 14149.78 | 3822.65 | 1336.75 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.65 | 1.25 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.09 | 0.72 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 7856.58 | 10882.79 | 4638.61 | 3556.73 | 5183.00 | 654.92 | 【重点推荐】 金融工程 金融工程周报:ETF 周报-上周股票型 ETF 涨幅中位数达 2.4%，AI ETF 领 涨 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 固定收益投资策略:2025 年 12 月转债市场研判及"十强转债"组合 固定收益投资策略:债海观潮，大势研判——多空交织，利率低位震荡 行业与公司 食品饮料周报（25 年第 4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5][37]. Core Insights - The report analyzes the recent financial performance of major players in the food delivery sector, including Meituan, JD Group, Alibaba, and Bawang Chaji, highlighting the impact of the ongoing delivery battle on their operations and profitability [1][2][3]. - It emphasizes that the low-frequency, low-ticket order subsidies are the primary reason for the significant losses in the instant retail business, which includes food delivery [2][19]. - The report suggests that the platforms are likely to return to a more rational subsidy strategy, focusing on high-ticket orders to improve unit economics [2][19]. Summary by Sections Meituan - In Q3 2025, Meituan reported revenues of 954.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, but faced an adjusted net loss of 160.1 billion yuan, shifting from profit to loss [1][6]. - The core local business revenue was 674.5 billion yuan, down 2.8%, with an operating loss of 140.7 billion yuan [8][10]. - The food delivery segment is expected to see a 15% increase in order volume, but a 13% decline in revenue due to a decrease in average order value (AOV) and lower monetization rates [8][10]. JD Group and Alibaba - JD Group's Q3 2025 new business losses reached 157 billion yuan, while Alibaba's instant retail business incurred losses of approximately 361 billion yuan, with a per-order loss of about 5.3 yuan [2][17]. - Both companies are experiencing significant pressure on their overall performance due to the losses in their instant retail segments [2][19]. Bawang Chaji - Bawang Chaji reported a revenue of 32.08 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a decrease of 9.4%, with an adjusted net profit of 5.03 billion yuan, down 22.2% [3][21]. - The company has chosen a cautious approach to the delivery battle, avoiding price wars to maintain brand integrity and product strategy [3][32]. - The report notes that Bawang Chaji's same-store GMV declined by 27.9% in the Greater China region, reflecting the competitive pressures in the market [21][32]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading restaurant brands that are likely to benefit from increased subsidy efforts and are in a strong operational season, such as Guoquan, Haidilao, Yum China, and Xiaocaiyuan [3][37]. - It also highlights the potential of tea brands like Guming and Mixue Group, which are actively expanding their product offerings and private traffic strategies [3][37].

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis