Economic Indicators - The Guosen Weekly High-Tech Manufacturing Diffusion Index A recorded -0.2, while Index B was at 50.6, indicating a slight weakening compared to the previous period[1] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth is at 3.70%[4] - Retail sales year-on-year growth for the month is at 6.40%[4] - Monthly export year-on-year growth stands at 4.80%[4] - M2 money supply growth is at 7.90%[4] Price Trends - The price of 6-Aminopenicillanic Acid remains stable at 260 RMB/kg[2] - The price of Acrylonitrile decreased by 50 RMB/ton to 8150 RMB/ton[2] - Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) price increased by 0.061 USD to 1.3910 USD[2] - Wafer price remains unchanged at 2.73 USD per piece[2] - Lithium Hexafluorophosphate price decreased by 0.05 RMB/ton to 51,700 RMB/ton[2] Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry shows improved sentiment, while the new energy and aerospace sectors are experiencing a downturn[1] - QuantumScape announced a significant advancement in solid-state battery technology, improving production speed by approximately 25 times[2] - A national standard for non-invasive brain-machine interface medical devices is open for public consultation, focusing on performance indicators and testing methods[2] Risk Factors - Potential for indicator failure due to structural adjustments in high-tech manufacturing[3] - Economic policy and industrial policy interventions may impact the sector[3] - Economic growth slowdown poses risks to the industry[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The S&P 500 index reached a historical high, with a weekly increase of 3.4% and the Nasdaq rising by 4.2% [3] - Among 20 industries, 16 experienced gains, with notable increases in semiconductor products and equipment (+8.4%), durable goods and apparel (+8.3%), and media and entertainment (+6.6%) [3] - The report highlights significant capital inflows into the S&P 500, estimating a net inflow of $18.17 billion this week, compared to $14.66 billion in the previous week [4][19] - Earnings expectations for the S&P 500 components were adjusted upward by 0.3%, with semiconductor products and equipment leading the upward revisions (+1.3%) [5] Summary by Sections Price Trends - The S&P 500 index increased by 3.4%, while the Nasdaq rose by 4.2% this week [3] - The leading sectors included semiconductor products and equipment (+8.4%) and durable goods and apparel (+8.3%), while the energy sector saw a decline of 3.4% [3] Capital Flows - The estimated capital inflow for S&P 500 components was $18.17 billion this week, a significant increase from $14.66 billion the previous week [4][19] - The semiconductor products and equipment sector attracted the highest inflow of $5.77 billion, followed by information technology with $5.36 billion [19] Earnings Forecast - The dynamic F12M EPS expectations for S&P 500 components were raised by 0.3%, with semiconductor products and equipment seeing the largest increase of 1.3% [5] - Four industries had downward revisions, with durable goods and apparel experiencing a decrease of 1.0% [5]

股价表现：大盘显著上涨，金融与科技领先 证券研究报告 | 2025年06月29日 港股市场速览 优于大市 资金大量流入，金融与科技领先 盈利预测：总体平稳上修，行业分化加深 本周，港股通总体法 EPS 预期上修 0.3%，上周上修 0.1%。 结构上，20 个行业 EPS 预期上修，8 个行业 EPS 预期下修，1 个基本持平。 上修的行业主要有：电力设备及新能源（+3.7%）、医药（+1.7%）、电子（+1.6%）、 有色金属（+1.4%）、传媒（+1.0%）；下修的行业主要有：国防军工（-7.4%）、 钢铁（-3.5%）、轻工制造（-2.4%）、建材（-0.9%）、商贸零售（-0.2%）。 风险提示：经济基本面的不确定性，国际政治局势的不确定性，美国财政政 策的不确定性，美联储货币政策的不确定性。 核心观点 行业研究·海外市场专题 本周，恒生指数涨 3.2%，恒生科技涨 4.1%。风格方面，小盘（恒生小型股 +4.5%）＞中盘（恒生中型股+4.1%）＞大盘（恒生大型股+2.9%）。 概念指数均有所上涨，表现领先的有：恒生金融（+4.0%）、恒生互联网 （+3.9%）、恒生香港 35（+3.8%）。 港股通 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the textile and apparel industry is "Outperform the Market" [2][6]. Core Insights - The worst period for Nike has passed, with expectations for gradual improvement in FY2026, driven by the "Win Now" strategy and easing tariff impacts [4][5][42]. - FY2025 revenue was $46.31 billion, a 10% decline year-over-year, slightly exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [3][8]. - The fourth quarter of FY2025 saw revenue of $11.1 billion, down 12% year-over-year, but better than previous guidance and consensus [5][18]. Summary by Sections Performance and Guidance - FY2025 Q4 revenue exceeded Bloomberg consensus and management guidance, indicating that the worst financial impacts from the "Win Now" strategy are behind [4][5]. - The company expects revenue in FY2026 Q1 to decline in the low single digits, with inventory levels projected to return to healthy levels by the end of H1 FY2026 [4][41]. Regional Performance - Revenue declines were observed across all regions, with the Greater China region experiencing the most significant drop of 20% year-over-year [19][25]. - North America, EMEA, and Asia-Pacific regions reported revenue declines of 11%, 10%, and 3% respectively, all better than Bloomberg consensus [11][19]. Brand and Channel Performance - Nike brand revenue declined by 9%, outperforming expectations, while Converse saw an 18% decline, missing consensus [11][19]. - Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) channels saw a 12% decline, with e-commerce down 20%, while physical stores remained stable [11][19]. Inventory and Margin Analysis - Inventory levels are expected to normalize by the end of H1 FY2026, with significant inventory reduction efforts noted in various regions [12][41]. - Gross margin contracted by 190 basis points to 42.7%, primarily due to inventory clearance and increased discounting [11][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality suppliers and retailers within the industry, particularly Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, as well as core retailer Tmall, which is expected to benefit from Nike's recovery [4][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the LCD industry [2] Core Viewpoints - BOE plans to acquire a 30% stake in Rainbow Optoelectronics, which is expected to optimize the competitive landscape of the panel industry [4][6] - The average gross margin of major Chinese LCD manufacturers increased by 1.81 percentage points year-on-year and 3.60 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 14.89% in Q1 2025 [5] - The report indicates a downward trend in TV panel prices, with expectations of further declines in July [6][22] - The global large-size LCD panel shipment area decreased by 6.08% year-on-year in May 2025, with specific declines in TV and monitor shipments [9][32] Market Performance - From May 2025 to the present, the panel index has risen by 3.54%, outperforming major stock indices [8][15] - As of June 23, 2025, the total market capitalization of the A-share panel industry was 513.69 billion yuan, with an overall price-to-book ratio of 1.49x, at the 57.3 percentile of the past five years [15][20] Price & Cost - In June 2025, the prices of various sizes of LCD TV panels decreased, with a forecasted further decline in July [6][22] - The prices for IT panels remained stable across different sizes in June 2025 [7][22] Supply & Demand - The report forecasts a 2.31% increase in global large-size LCD capacity in 2024 compared to 2023, with a slight growth of 0.21% expected in 2025 [9][26] - The demand for large-size LCD panels is projected to decline, particularly in the TV segment, which saw an 8.01% year-on-year decrease in shipment area in May 2025 [9][32] Performance Review - In May 2025, global large-size LCD panel revenue was $6.195 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.72% [57] - Major manufacturers' revenues showed varied performance, with BOE's revenue at $1.78 billion, down 12.92% year-on-year [60]

Group 1 - The report indicates that in a low interest rate environment, dividend assets can serve as a good supplement to bonds, but they cannot fully replace them due to differing risk-return characteristics. Historical data shows that during periods of declining interest rates, dividend asset yields have increased, with current low-volatility dividend stock yields exceeding 6% while the 10-year government bond yield is below 1.8% [3][11][12] - The volatility of dividend assets is significantly higher than that of bonds. Over the past decade, the volatility of mainstream dividend indices has been much greater than that of bond indices, with the lowest annualized volatility of the best-performing dividend asset (the low-volatility dividend index in 2017) still exceeding bonds by nearly 5 percentage points [3][14][16] - The report suggests a paradigm shift in the approach to dividend assets in stock-bond allocation, moving from "replacing stocks" to "replacing bonds" as the traditional safety net effect of pure bond assets weakens due to significantly compressed coupon yields [3][43] Group 2 - Insights into bond fund performance reveal that during periods of rapid interest rate declines, the proportion of funds outperforming benchmarks is limited. Over the past four and a half years, the average proportion of short and medium-long bond funds outperforming benchmarks has been around 57.6%, with nearly 60% of bond funds underperforming benchmarks in 2024 [3][52][55] - The report highlights a significant difference in the holdings of dividend assets between banks and insurance companies in Japan. Banks hold an average of 10.27% of the high dividend index, while insurance companies hold only 3.55%, indicating a much larger total position for banks compared to insurance companies [3][57][61]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing dual opening of capital markets, emphasizing the solid position of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) and its strategic advancements in connectivity, market vitality, and technological empowerment [2][3] - The report recommends several stocks across various industries, indicating a positive outlook for companies like Ningbo Bank and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from improved profitability and industry trends [2][3] Group 2: Financial and Valuation Summary - HKEX is projected to have an EPS of 12.17 in 2025 with a PE ratio of 34.61, indicating strong growth potential [3] - Ningbo Bank's EPS is expected to reach 4.27 in 2025 with a PE of 6.52, suggesting a favorable valuation as uncertainties diminish [3] - Muyuan Foods is anticipated to have an EPS of 3.57 in 2025 with a PE of 11.67, reflecting its position as a leading player in the pig farming industry [3] - Xiaoxiong Electric is expected to see an EPS of 2.34 in 2025 with a PE of 19.53, benefiting from a recovery in demand for small household appliances [3] - Aojie Technology is projected to have a negative EPS of -0.98 in 2025, with a high PE ratio of -77.13, indicating volatility in its earnings [3] - Dongfang Cable is expected to achieve an EPS of 2.48 in 2025 with a PE of 20.33, driven by significant growth in overseas revenue [3] - Anhui Heli is projected to have an EPS of 1.58 in 2025 with a PE of 11.27, benefiting from advancements in intelligent logistics [3] - Xinquan Co. is expected to have an EPS of 2.80 in 2025 with a PE of 16.86, supported by new product developments and overseas expansion [3] - Luoyang Molybdenum is projected to have an EPS of 0.71 in 2025 with a PE of 11.69, benefiting from rising cobalt prices [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the wind power industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [1]. Core Insights - The wind power sector has seen a general increase in stock prices over the past two weeks, with the top three performing segments being complete machines (+10.9%), blades (+9.4%), and mooring systems (+7.8%) [3]. - Major projects in offshore wind power are set to commence in Jiangsu and Guangdong in the first half of 2025, marking the beginning of a significant development phase for offshore wind energy in China [4]. - The industry is expected to achieve a record high of 100GW in installed capacity for onshore wind power in 2025, with component manufacturers experiencing growth in both volume and pricing [4]. - The report suggests focusing on three main investment directions: leading companies in export layouts for piles and submarine cables, domestic complete machine leaders with improving profitability and accelerating exports, and component manufacturers benefiting from simultaneous growth in volume and profit in 2025 [5]. Summary by Sections Industry News - The wind power sector has experienced a general increase in stock prices, with significant gains in various segments and individual stocks [3]. Market Performance - The wind power sector has shown strong performance, with notable increases in stock prices for leading companies [3][48]. Industry Outlook - The offshore wind power sector is expected to see substantial project launches in 2025, with annual installed capacity projected to exceed 20GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4]. - Onshore wind power is anticipated to reach a historical high of 100GW in installed capacity in 2025, with component manufacturers benefiting from increased demand and pricing [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong export capabilities, domestic leaders in profitability, and component manufacturers poised for growth in 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the AIDC power equipment and grid industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The global AI computing power load is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of 9.7/15.9/20.2/22.3/23.4/24.6 GW from 2025 to 2030. The demand for AIDC power equipment is projected to reach 29/48/60/67/70/74 GW during the same period, with an average annual growth rate of 20% [5][13] - The market potential for dry-type transformers, medium and low voltage switchgear, UPS, HVDC, and solid-state transformers is estimated to reach 85/341/41/380/239 billion yuan by 2030 [5][12] - The domestic data center industry is expected to see increased capital expenditure from major cloud providers, with 2025 anticipated to be a pivotal year for AIDC construction [5][18] AIDC Power Equipment Summary - The AIDC power equipment sector has seen a recent overall increase, with notable gains in backup diesel power sources (+12.3%), lead-acid batteries (+6.9%), and server power supplies (+6.1%) [5] - Key companies in the transformer/switchgear segment include Jinpan Technology, Mingyang Electric, and Eaton, while UPS/HVDC businesses include Zhongheng Electric and Keda Technology [5] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards domestic companies gaining competitive advantages in various segments, with a focus on providing comprehensive solutions [5] Grid Industry Summary - The national power engineering investment completion amount for May 2025 was 645 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%, while the grid engineering investment completion amount was 632 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.3% [31][32] - The second batch of bidding results for the State Grid's ultra-high voltage equipment in May 2025 showed a total bid amount of 5.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38% [57] - The grid equipment sector has shown varied performance, with distribution equipment (+5.3%) and grid automation equipment (+2.1%) leading the gains [5] Market Trends and Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on four key areas within AIDC power equipment: transformer/switchgear, UPS/HVDC, active filter APF, and server power supply [5] - For the grid sector, attention is recommended on ultra-high voltage orders and deliveries, virtual power plants, and the international expansion of power equipment [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a global leader in autonomous driving, focusing on Robotaxi and Robotruck services, with a significant potential for revenue growth as it expands its fleet [4][15]. - The global market for Robotaxi is projected to be worth trillions, with a substantial opportunity for market penetration in both domestic and international markets [2][4]. - The company has developed a comprehensive ecosystem that integrates advanced driving technology, vehicle-grade products, and a diverse range of partners, which is expected to create a profitable business model [3][4]. Company Overview - The company, Pony.ai, was founded in 2016 and has rapidly developed its Robotaxi and Robotruck businesses, achieving significant milestones in autonomous vehicle testing and commercialization [15][16]. - The main business segments include Robotaxi autonomous ride-hailing services (9.7% of revenue), Robotruck autonomous trucking services (53.8%), and licensing and application services (36.5%) [24][30]. Financial Analysis - The company is expected to generate revenues of $75.03 million in 2024, with a projected growth rate of 4% year-over-year, and a net loss of $274 million [4][5]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are $80 million, $93 million, and $195 million, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 7%, 15.4%, and 110.3% [4][5]. Industry Insights - The Robo-X industry is characterized by a long growth trajectory and significant market potential, driven by technological advancements, cost reductions, and supportive policies [2][4]. - The competitive landscape includes major players like Tesla and Xpeng in the Robotaxi space, while Pony.ai, along with other companies, is making strides in the Robotruck sector [2][4].