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士兰微(600460):全球份额稳步提升,碳化硅上车加速推进
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-27 08:51
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain steady growth with a projected revenue of 11.22 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.14%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to reach 2.52 billion yuan, a significant increase of 327.34% year-on-year [1] - The company is ranked sixth globally in power semiconductor market share, holding 3.3% of the market, and is the leading player in the domestic market [1] - The integrated circuit segment is anticipated to grow by 29% in 2024, with the IPM module revenue reaching 2.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47% [2] - The discrete device segment is projected to generate revenue of 5.44 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.53%, with a focus on high-value products for automotive and photovoltaic applications [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 11.22 billion yuan, up 20.14% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.52 billion yuan, up 327.34% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%, with a net profit of 145 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.96% [1] Segment Analysis - The integrated circuit segment's revenue in 2024 is expected to be 4.11 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 30.70%, up 1.23 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The discrete device segment's revenue is projected to be 5.44 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 13.53%, down 9.20 percentage points year-on-year [3] Profit Forecast - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 524 million yuan, with expected growth rates of 138.5% and 53.1% for 2026 and 2027, respectively [5] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve, with projections of 23% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5]
宏观经济专题研究:“投资驱动型增长”正在走向效率悬崖
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-27 08:10
Economic Growth Dynamics - The fundamental driver of economic growth is the dynamic balance between investment and consumption, where investment creates new supply and consumption represents demand[1] - GDP can be divided into capital income and non-capital income, with capital income being concentrated among a few individuals, leading to a low marginal propensity to consume[1] Investment Efficiency Decline - Since the 2009 financial crisis, China's capital-output ratio (K/GDP) has continuously increased, indicating that capital stock growth has outpaced GDP growth, resulting in declining investment efficiency[3] - From 2010 to 2020, China's capital income share remained relatively stable, while capital return rates (r) have been decreasing, indicating a negative correlation between K/GDP and r[3][4] Structural Challenges and Solutions - The current structural dilemma arises from declining investment efficiency and insufficient consumption demand, necessitating a shift from "heavy investment, light consumption" to activating domestic consumption, particularly in services[4] - A significant portion (70%) of fixed asset investment is related to construction and installation, while service consumption among residents remains notably low, contributing to capital idleness[4][5] Sustainable Growth Path - To achieve sustainable growth and avoid the "efficiency cliff," the growth engine must transition from a single "investment-driven" model to a dual "consumption-led, investment-responsive" model[4] - The investment evaluation system should incorporate "capital stock/GDP" and "capacity utilization" as core efficiency indicators to avoid ineffective capital accumulation[4] Risk Considerations - There are risks associated with model failure, tail risks, and uncertainties in domestic policy execution that could impact the effectiveness of proposed strategies[4][5]
国信证券晨会纪要-20250627
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-27 01:12
Macro and Strategy - The bond market experienced a rebound in the first half of 2025, with credit spreads narrowing. The yield changes for 1-year and 10-year government bonds were +27 basis points and -3 basis points respectively, while credit spreads for AAA and AA-rated bonds decreased by 15 basis points and 22 basis points respectively [7][8]. - The government debt net financing reached 25,594 million in week 25 and is projected to be 67,140 million in week 26, with a cumulative total of 7 trillion, exceeding the previous year's total by 3.7 trillion [9][10]. Banking Industry - The stablecoin ecosystem in Hong Kong is analyzed, highlighting its operational mechanisms and the various participants involved, including issuers, asset management companies, and virtual asset trading platforms. The report emphasizes that stablecoins can enhance the efficiency and security of cross-border payments, although they may disrupt traditional banking operations [11][12]. - The launch of the cross-border payment system in China represents a diversification of the RMB cross-border payment framework, exploring various systems and pilot projects for stablecoin issuance [12]. Electric New Energy Industry - The solid-state battery industry is gaining traction due to policy support and technological advancements. The report notes that solid-state batteries offer high energy density and safety but face challenges such as high manufacturing costs and shorter lifespans. Major automotive companies are planning to scale up production by 2030 [13][14]. - The AIDC power equipment sector is highlighted, with high-voltage direct current (HVDC) technology presenting significant market opportunities for domestic manufacturers. The demand for power supply equipment in data centers is expected to grow substantially, with a projected market size of 108.7 billion by 2030 [15][16]. Automotive Industry - The trend towards steer-by-wire technology is accelerating, with the report indicating that the penetration rate for electronic brake systems (EHB) is nearing 60%. The market for steer-by-wire systems is expected to grow significantly, with projections of over 30% penetration by 2030 [17][19]. - The report discusses the transition from mechanical steering to electronic and steer-by-wire systems, with the current market for electronic power steering (EPS) valued at approximately 38 billion. The market is dominated by foreign joint ventures, but domestic companies are rapidly increasing their market share [18][20]. Company Analysis - The report on Tabo (06110.HK) indicates a mid-single-digit decline in total sales for Q1 2026, with online sales channels showing positive growth. The company is managing inventory effectively, with a focus on improving profitability amid a challenging consumer environment [21][23].
金融工程日报:A股震荡走低,军工、稳定币题材逆势走强-20250626
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-26 15:04
证券研究报告 | 2025年06月26日 金融工程日报 A 股震荡走低,军工、稳定币题材逆势走强 市场表现:今日(20250626) 市场全线下跌,规模指数中中证 2000 指数表现 较好,板块指数中上证综指表现较好,风格指数中沪深 300 价值指数表现较 好。综合金融、银行、通信、国防军工、消费者服务行业表现较好,汽车、 非银、医药、电新、电子行业表现较差。锂电隔膜、密码学、稳定币、数字 货币、网络安全等概念表现较好,近端次新股、自行车、共享汽车、CRO、 单克隆抗体等概念表现较差。 市场情绪:今日收盘时有 72 只股票涨停,有 7 只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票 今日收盘收益为 2.85%,昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为 0.22%。今日封板率 69%,较前日下降 4%,连板率 30%,较前日下降 3%。 市场资金流向:截至 20250625 两融余额为 18292 亿元,其中融资余额 18172 亿元,融券余额 120 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.2%,两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 9.8%。 折溢价:20250625 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是中证 800ETF,ETF 折价较多的是中 证 A50ETF ...
智能驾驶专题系列:线控转向加速落地,线控底盘大势所趋
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-26 11:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the trend towards steer-by-wire (SBW) systems and the increasing adoption of electronic control in automotive chassis, indicating a significant shift from traditional mechanical systems to more advanced electronic solutions [1][4][25]. - The penetration rate of steer-by-wire systems is currently below 1%, but it is projected to exceed 30% by 2030 in China, with a market size exceeding 35 billion yuan [3][4][31]. - The report highlights the rapid growth of the electric power steering (EPS) market, which is expected to reach 48 billion yuan by 2028, driven by the transition from C-EPS to R-EPS and DP-EPS systems [2][56]. Summary by Sections Steer-by-Wire Systems - The steer-by-wire technology is seen as a key enabler for higher levels of autonomous driving, with the first mass-produced models expected to hit the market soon [3][31]. - Current market leaders in steer-by-wire include companies like NIO and ZF, with significant projects underway [3][36]. Electric Power Steering (EPS) - The EPS market in China is currently valued at approximately 38 billion yuan, with a projected growth to 48 billion yuan by 2028 [2][56]. - EPS systems are becoming the mainstream solution, with a penetration rate expected to reach over 99% by 2024 [2][50]. Key Companies and Forecasts - The report identifies key players such as Naisite, Zhejiang Seabow, Berteli, and Asia-Pacific Shares, all rated as "Outperform" [5][4]. - Naisite is noted for its strong position in the steer-by-wire market, while Zhejiang Seabow is expected to achieve mass production of steer-by-wire systems by 2026 [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the competitive landscape, highlighting that foreign joint ventures currently dominate the EPS market, but domestic players are rapidly increasing their market share [2][56]. - The transition to electronic steering systems is driven by the need for improved efficiency, safety, and the ability to support advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) [1][25].
AIDC电力设备专题之二:高压直流技术(HVDC)为国产设备带来广阔市场机遇
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-26 08:35
Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) technology presents significant market opportunities for domestic equipment manufacturers [1] - The global AI data center market is expected to see substantial growth, with a projected annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of 28% for AI computing power load from 2024 to 2030 [4] - The demand for power equipment in data centers is anticipated to reach a market size of 108.7 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the increasing requirements for reliability and efficiency [5] Summary by Sections AI Data Center Growth - The global computing power scale is projected to exceed 16 ZFlops by 2030, with AI computing power accounting for over 90% [4] - The expected annual growth in AI computing power load from 2025 to 2030 is 9.7 GW, 15.9 GW, 20.2 GW, 22.3 GW, 23.4 GW, and 24.6 GW respectively [10][11] Power Equipment Demand - The demand for power equipment in data centers is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of 29 GW, 48 GW, 60 GW, 67 GW, 70 GW, and 74 GW from 2025 to 2030 [30] - The market for transformers, switchgear, UPS, and HVDC is projected to reach 85 billion yuan, 341 billion yuan, 41 billion yuan, and 380 billion yuan respectively by 2030 [5] Technology Trends - The integration and modularization of power distribution equipment are increasingly required, with HVDC technology expected to see a steady rise in penetration from the current 15%-20% [6] - The transition to 800V HVDC systems is being accelerated by major companies like NVIDIA, which aims to support ultra-high power density IT racks [6][49] Company Analysis - Key players in the data center power equipment sector include Delta, Vertiv, Schneider Electric, and domestic firms like Hezhong Electric and Mingyang Electric [7] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies such as Hezhong Electric, Shenghong Co., Magmi Tech, Mingyang Electric, and Jinpan Technology [7]
固态电池行业专题之二:政策推动技术进步,应用场景日益丰富
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-26 05:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the solid-state battery industry [1] Core Insights - Solid-state batteries exhibit high energy density and safety, making them a competitive factor for automotive companies aiming to enhance battery safety and range. Major automakers plan to begin large-scale testing by 2027 and aim for mass production around 2030 [2][19] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated the establishment of a standard system for solid-state batteries, which is expected to enhance technological efficiency and accelerate industrialization [2][26] - The demand for solid-state batteries is rapidly increasing, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, with projections indicating a penetration rate of 3% by 2027 and 8% by 2030, corresponding to capacity scales of 76 GWh and 271 GWh respectively [2][27] Summary by Sections 1. Solid-State Battery: Innovative Scenarios Coupled with Performance Advantages - Solid-state batteries are characterized by high energy density and safety, but face challenges such as high manufacturing costs and limited lifespan [2][11] - The automotive industry is actively pursuing solid-state battery technology to improve vehicle performance and safety [2][20] 2. Outlook for Solid-State Battery Applications - The electric vehicle market is leading the short-term production process, with major global automakers rapidly adopting solid-state battery technology [2][20] - Solid-state batteries are also being explored in consumer electronics and emerging fields such as humanoid robots and eVTOLs [2][20] 3. Solid-State Battery Industry Chain Analysis - The industry chain includes key components such as solid-state electrolytes, which are expected to see significant advancements and cost reductions by 2025 [2][46] - Major battery manufacturers are making strides in both semi-solid and solid-state battery technologies, with several companies already achieving product mass production [2][49]
滔搏(06110):一季度流水下滑中单位数,线上渠道销售正向增长
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-26 05:13
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5][17] Core Views - The company reported a mid-single-digit year-on-year decline in total sales for the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year, with retail performing better than wholesale, and direct online sales showing positive growth compared to offline channels [2][3][4] - Inventory management is on track, with total inventory decreasing year-on-year, and the inventory-to-sales ratio remaining stable [3][4] - The company is expected to gradually improve profitability due to its operational capabilities, with a focus on long-term cash returns and high dividend levels [3][8] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - For the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year, total sales decreased by a mid-single-digit percentage year-on-year, continuing the trend from the previous fiscal year [2][4] - Direct online sales accounted for 40% of total direct sales, showing positive growth, while offline channels are still affected by weak foot traffic [4] Inventory and Discounts - As of the end of May, total inventory decreased year-on-year, and the inventory-to-sales ratio remained stable [3][4] - The increase in direct online sales has led to a deeper discount in the first quarter, although the extent of the discount has moderated compared to the previous quarter [3][4] Financial Forecasts - The company maintains its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 1.3 billion, 1.46 billion, and 1.63 billion yuan for the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 0.7%, 12.6%, and 11.5% [3][8][9] - The reasonable valuation range is maintained at 3.8 to 4.0 HKD, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 17 to 18 times for the fiscal year 2026 [3][8]
跨境支付通业务落地点评:跨境支付体系多元化,稳定币异军突起
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-26 02:49AI Processing
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3][14] Core Insights - The launch of the Cross-Border Payment System marks a significant step in diversifying China's RMB cross-border payment framework, enhancing connectivity between residents of mainland China and Hong Kong [4][5] - The RMB cross-border payment system has three main models: CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System), mCBDC Bridge (Multilateral Central Bank Digital Currency Bridge), and BRICS Pay (BRICS Countries Payment System), with a total of 8.21 million transactions processed in 2024, amounting to 175.49 trillion RMB, a 43% year-on-year increase [5][8] - The Cross-Border Payment System connects mainland China's IBPS (Interbank Payment System) with Hong Kong's FPS (Faster Payment System), allowing residents to make small remittances and payments instantly using just a mobile phone number, significantly improving fund transfer efficiency compared to traditional bank remittances [4][6] Summary by Sections Cross-Border Payment System - The Cross-Border Payment System was officially launched on June 22, 2024, facilitating real-time remittances between residents of mainland China and Hong Kong [4] - It supports various high-frequency scenarios such as salary payments, tuition fees for studying abroad, and medical payments, promoting economic integration in the Greater Bay Area [6] RMB Cross-Border Payment System - The CIPS system, operational since 2015, has expanded its reach to cover global financial markets, with 174 direct participants and 1,509 indirect participants as of May 2025 [5][7] - The system is recognized as the third-largest clearing system globally, with continuous high growth in transaction volumes [7] Stablecoins and New Payment Paths - Stablecoins are emerging as a new path for cross-border payments, leveraging technological innovations to reshape the payment landscape and reduce reliance on traditional financial systems [8][9] - The use of stablecoins can significantly reduce transaction times from 3-5 days to mere minutes, with costs typically below 1%, compared to an average fee of 6.62% for traditional cross-border remittances [8]
2025年上半年债券行情回顾:债市先抑后扬,信用利差收窄
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-26 02:47
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View In H1 2025, the bond market first declined and then rose, followed by narrow - range fluctuations. Credit bond yields followed government bond yields, rising first and then falling, with credit spreads narrowing. Default risks continued to decline, mainly concentrated in private enterprises and the real - estate industry. The risk of downgrades in the ChinaBond market's implied ratings increased slightly, while the amount of upgrades was significantly lower than the same period last year [11][41]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Valuation Curve: Short - term Yields Rose Significantly - Yield changes: In H1 2025, the yields of 1 - year government bonds, 10 - year government bonds, and 10 - year policy bank bonds changed by 27BP, - 3BP, and - 2BP respectively. The yields of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA +, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - changed by 6BP, - 0BP, - 1BP, and - 23BP respectively. Credit spreads of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA +, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - decreased by 15BP, 22BP, 23BP, and 45BP respectively [12]. - Overall situation: Yields of medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds generally rose, while long - term interest - rate bond yields declined slightly. Credit bond yields mostly declined. Credit spreads of various varieties narrowed, with lower - grade and shorter - term credit spreads narrowing more. The 10 - 1 curve flattened [12]. 3.2 Government Bond Yields First Rose and Then Fell - Jan - Mar mid: The central bank suspended government bond trading and reduced liquidity injection, tightening the money market. Short - term government bond yields rose rapidly, and long - term yields also increased, showing a "bear - flattening" trend. The 1 - year government bond yield reached a high of 1.59%, and the 10 - year government bond yield reached 1.90% [14][15]. - Mar late - Apr: The money market eased slightly, and due to the China - US tariff "tug - of - war", the 10 - year government bond yield quickly declined and fluctuated within the range of 1.63% - 1.67% [15]. - May: The central bank announced RRR cuts and interest rate cuts. The 1 - year government bond yield briefly declined. After the positive result of China - US tariff negotiations and some institutional redemptions of bond funds, the 10 - year government bond yield fluctuated slightly upward and returned to 1.70% [15]. - May end - Jun: The money market improved. The central bank announced repurchase operations in advance. The yields of 1 - year and 10 - year government bonds fluctuated downward in a narrow range, reaching a low of 1.635% [15]. 3.3 Credit Spreads: Credit Spreads of All Grades Fluctuated and Narrowed - Jan - Mar mid: Interest - rate bonds quickly rebounded and rose, causing credit spreads to narrow passively. Before the Two Sessions, market expectations of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts led to a brief widening of credit spreads. After the Two Sessions, credit spreads narrowed again [19]. - Mar end - Apr early: The bond market recovered, government bond yields declined rapidly, and credit spreads widened slightly [20]. - May: After the implementation of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, the money market loosened, and credit spreads narrowed again [20]. - Jun: The money market remained balanced and loose, short - term government bond yields declined, and credit spreads widened slightly [20]. - Overall: In H1 2025, 3 - year credit bonds of all grades first declined and then rose, followed by narrow - range fluctuations. Credit spreads narrowed overall, with short - term credit spreads narrowing faster [20]. 3.4 Slight Increase in the Risk of Downgrades in ChinaBond Market's Implied Ratings In H1 2025, the amount of credit bonds with downgraded ChinaBond market implied ratings was 175.1 billion, a slight year - on - year increase. The total amount of upgraded bonds was 114.8 billion, significantly lower than the same period last year. The proportion of urban investment bonds in the upgraded and downgraded samples was 24.3% and 2.8% respectively, both decreasing compared to the same period last year and the previous quarter [23]. 3.5 Default: Default Risks Declined, and the Default Rate of Real - Estate Bonds Decreased - In H1 2025, there was 1 new issuer with a first - time default. According to the broad default definition, the default amount was 6.5 billion, with a default rate of 0.02%, and the annualized default rate decreased significantly compared to previous years [2][29]. - Defaults were mainly concentrated in real - estate bonds and private enterprises. The real - estate bond default rate was 0.1%, with both the default scale and annualized default rate decreasing significantly year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The private enterprise default rate was 0.5%, and the annualized default rate continued to decline quarter - on - quarter [34]. 3.6 Still Low Recovery Rate In H1 2025, defaulted bonds recovered a principal of 5.525 billion. From 2014 to now, defaulted bonds have repaid a principal of 120.4 billion, with a repayment rate of overdue principal of 11.9% [2][39].