Investment Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of fund flows in the market, suggesting a focus on low-position stocks and heavyweight stocks within the consumer staples sector [1][6] - Key stocks recommended for investment include Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili, all rated as "Outperform" [1] Industry Overview - In August 2025, five out of eight tracked essential consumer sectors showed positive growth, while three sectors experienced negative growth. The sectors with single-digit growth included soft drinks (+3.9%), frozen foods (+2.0%), condiments (+1.9%), dining (+0.5%), and dairy products (+0.5%). The declining sectors were mass-market and below baijiu (-3.8%), mid-to-high-end baijiu (-1.9%), and beer (-0.6%) [3][8] - The report notes that the new alcohol ban continues to impact high-ticket dining businesses and related consumer goods, leading to short-term effects on the supply chain [3][8] Price Trends - In August, the wholesale prices of mid-to-high-end baijiu generally declined, with specific price points for various products such as Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye showing significant year-on-year decreases [4][20][22] - The report indicates that the price index for consumer goods has seen fluctuations, with most categories experiencing increased discount rates compared to the previous month [4] Cost Analysis - The report highlights that the cost index for consumer goods has mostly increased, with specific increases noted in instant noodles (+1.30%), frozen foods (+1.15%), and soft drinks (+0.78%) [4] - The report also mentions that packaging material prices have shown mixed trends, with paper and glass prices increasing while plastic prices have decreased [4] Fund Flow Insights - As of the end of August, net inflows from Hong Kong Stock Connect amounted to 103.23 billion yuan, with the consumer staples sector's market capitalization share rising to 5.22% [5] - The report notes that the valuation of A-share food and beverage companies has increased, with the historical PE ratio rising to 21.6x, indicating a shift in market sentiment [5] Stock Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on heavyweight stocks with solid fundamentals, such as Yili, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Guizhou Moutai, as well as low-position stocks like Qingdao Beer and Mengniu Dairy [6] - The report warns of potential risks in the soft drink sector, predicting a weakening of fundamentals in the coming year [6]

Investment Rating - The report rates the express delivery industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - In July 2025, the express delivery volume increased by 15.1% year-on-year, with S.F. Holding leading the industry with a volume growth of 33.7%. The overall industry is expected to maintain strong growth momentum, driven by trends such as smaller parcels and e-commerce promotions [6][59] - The report highlights a narrowing decline in express delivery prices, indicating a shift towards healthier competition in the industry. This "anti-involution" trend is expected to ease short-term competitive pressures while ensuring long-term healthy competition [1][56] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In July 2025, the national express delivery volume reached 16.40 billion parcels, up 15.1% year-on-year, with revenue of 1206.4 billion RMB, reflecting an 8.9% increase. The average revenue per parcel was 7.36 RMB, down 5.3% year-on-year [6][59] - For the first seven months of 2025, the total express delivery volume was 1120.5 billion parcels, up 18.7% year-on-year, exceeding the postal bureau's forecast of over 8% growth for the year [6][59] Company Performance - In July 2025, the business volumes for major companies were as follows: S.F. Holding +33.7%, YTO Express +20.8%, Yunda +7.6%, and Shentong +11.9%. For the first seven months, the growth rates were +26.9%, +21.6%, +15.1%, and +19.3% respectively [31][32] - The market shares for these companies in July 2025 were: S.F. Holding 8.4%, YTO Express 15.8%, Yunda 13.2%, and Shentong 13.3% [32] Market Trends - The report notes that the industry concentration is increasing, with the CR8 index rising to 86.9 in the first seven months of 2025, up 1.7 year-on-year. This indicates a growing focus on leading companies in the market [28][59] - The report emphasizes that the "anti-involution" measures initiated by the postal bureau are expected to continue, which will help stabilize the market and promote healthy competition in the long run [56][59] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the easing of competition will reduce pressure on the industry, with expectations for profit recovery in the second half of 2025. Key companies to watch include S.F. Holding, YTO Express, ZTO, J&T, and Yunda [56][59]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Ning, with a target price of HKD 21.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.1% from the current price of HKD 18.77 [2][15]. Core Insights - Li Ning's operating profit for 1H25 exceeded market expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 14.82 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. The growth was driven by the wholesale and e-commerce channels, while the self-operated channel saw a decline due to store closures [3][12]. - The company continues to implement a single-brand, multi-category strategy, focusing on professional product expansion, which has led to revenue growth in footwear and accessories [4][13]. - Olympic marketing is a central theme in Li Ning's mid-term strategy, with increased marketing expenses expected in the second half of the year [6][14]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 29.13 billion, RMB 30.64 billion, and RMB 32.30 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 1.6%, 5.2%, and 5.4% respectively [7][16]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 2.49 billion, RMB 2.84 billion, and RMB 3.17 billion for the same period, with a notable decline of 17.3% in 2025, followed by growth in subsequent years [7][16]. - The gross margin for 1H25 was reported at 50%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by deeper discounting and changes in channel contributions [3][12]. Category and Channel Adjustments - The company has concluded its category and channel adjustments, with a focus on enhancing brand equity and consumer engagement through Olympic marketing initiatives [15][16]. - Li Ning's footwear and apparel categories have shown mixed performance, with footwear revenue growing by 5% while apparel declined by 3% [4][13]. - The basketball category experienced a significant decline of 20% in revenue, attributed to proactive order control to maintain brand equity [4][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Sino Biopharmaceutical with a target price of HKD 10.87, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's performance [2][7]. Core Insights - Sino Biopharmaceutical achieved revenue of CNY 17.6 billion in 1H25, representing an 11% year-on-year increase, with a gross profit margin of 82.5% [3][12]. - The company's innovative drug sales reached CNY 7.8 billion, growing by 27% year-on-year, while generic drug revenue was CNY 9.8 billion, showing slight growth [4][13]. - The report highlights the strong growth drivers in oncology and surgery/analgesia segments, with oncology revenue at CNY 6.7 billion (+25% YoY) and surgery/analgesia revenue at CNY 3.1 billion (+20% YoY) [19]. Financial Performance - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to CNY 33.4 billion and CNY 37.6 billion, respectively, due to expected growth in out-licensing revenue [17]. - Net profit attributable to parent shareholders is adjusted to CNY 4.8 billion and CNY 5.1 billion for FY25E and FY26E, respectively [17]. - The report indicates a projected diluted EPS of CNY 0.27 for 2025 and CNY 0.28 for 2026, with a gross profit margin expected to remain stable at 82.5% [10][17]. Clinical Pipeline and Growth Potential - The respiratory portfolio includes multiple candidates in clinical stages, with significant progress in PDE3/4 inhibitors for COPD and TSLP monoclonal antibodies for asthma [4][14]. - Six innovative products are expected to launch in 2025, including key products like TQB3616 (CDK2/4/6 inhibitor) and HER2 inhibitors [15][16]. - The report emphasizes the potential for out-licensing several innovative products in oncology and respiratory pipelines, which could enhance revenue streams [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Laopu Gold [2][9]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, Laopu Gold achieved significant revenue and profit growth, with operating revenue reaching RMB 12.354 billion, up 251.0% year-on-year, and attributable net profit of RMB 2.268 billion, up 285.8% year-on-year, resulting in a net margin of 18.4% [3][13]. - The company is expanding its channels and international presence, with domestic revenue of RMB 10.758 billion (87.1% of total revenue) and overseas revenue of RMB 1.597 billion (12.9% of total revenue), reflecting year-on-year increases of 232.8% and 456%, respectively [5][15]. - Laopu Gold's membership base has surged, with 480,000 loyal members as of June 2025, indicating a strong consumer base that overlaps significantly with high-end luxury brands [8][16]. Financial Performance - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at RMB 26.964 billion, RMB 35.524 billion, and RMB 41.782 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 217.0%, 31.7%, and 17.6%, respectively [9][18]. - The company plans to declare an interim dividend of RMB 9.59 per share for 2025, with a total payout ratio of 72% [3][13]. Market Position and Strategy - Laopu Gold's core revenue is primarily from gold jewelry, driven by strong consumer demand for high-value pieces, while the management sees significant growth potential in gold artifacts among high-net-worth individuals [4][14]. - The company adheres to a fully self-operated model, targeting top-tier shopping malls and accelerating its internationalization efforts, including the opening of its first overseas store in Singapore [5][15][17]. - Management emphasizes that the brand's premium positioning is maintained despite participating in promotional activities, which are seen as necessary collaborations with malls [4][14]. Membership and Customer Base - The company has established a high-end customer management department to enhance consumer loyalty both domestically and internationally, with a focus on high-net-worth individuals [8][16]. - The average transaction values for overseas clients are significantly higher than those in mainland China, indicating a lucrative market opportunity [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 43.70, based on a current price of HKD 29.96 [2][23]. Core Insights - The company is engaging in discussions with Pfizer regarding the Phase III trial design for SSGJ-707, a PD-1/VEGF antibody, which is a significant development in its pipeline [1][4]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 4.36 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting a slight decline of 0.8% year-on-year, with various product sales showing mixed performance [3][15]. - The company is advancing multiple bispecific and trispecific antibody candidates, which are expected to enhance its product offerings and market position [5][18][20]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 18.63 billion, RMB 10.90 billion, and RMB 12.80 billion, with net profit estimates of RMB 8.92 billion, RMB 2.49 billion, and RMB 3.02 billion respectively [9][23]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain strong, with estimates of 92.5% in 2025 and around 87% in subsequent years [9][13]. - The company has seen a significant increase in R&D expenses, which rose by 15% to RMB 550 million, indicating a commitment to innovation [3][15]. Product Development and Pipeline - The company has several key products in development, including SSGJ-707, which has received a global licensing agreement with Pfizer, and other bispecific antibodies like 705 and 706, which are in various stages of clinical trials [4][18][19]. - SSS59, a trispecific antibody, is the first of its kind to enter clinical trials, showing promising preclinical results [20]. - Upcoming catalysts include NDA submissions for several products and potential data readouts for bispecific and trispecific candidates [22][23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Li Auto has been downgraded to NEUTRAL [2][14]. Core Insights - Li Auto's August sales were under pressure, with 28.5k units sold, down 7.2% month-over-month and 40.7% year-over-year. Cumulative sales from January to August reached 263.2k units, a decline of 8.6% year-over-year. The management emphasized that 2025 is the inaugural year for its pure-electric SUV portfolio, targeting a position within the top five in the premium EV segment [3][11]. - The company launched its first pure-electric SUV, the Li Auto i8, on July 29, and the five-seat i6 is expected to launch and begin deliveries by the end of September. Management aims for stabilized monthly sales of approximately 6k units for the i8 and 9-10k units for the i6, with a combined target of 18-20k units per month for the pure EV portfolio [3][12]. - Near-term sales pressure is attributed to model transitions and the ramp-up of pure electric vehicles, but improvements in deliveries are anticipated in late Q3 and Q4 as new models are released and sales policies are optimized [3][12]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised to Rmb130 billion, Rmb168.6 billion, and Rmb203.9 billion, respectively, reflecting cuts of 23%, 25%, and 24%. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at Rmb6.4 billion, Rmb9.5 billion, and Rmb12.3 billion for the same years [4][14]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable around 20%, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 8.3% in 2025, increasing to 12.4% by 2027 [2][9]. Market Strategy and Product Development - Li Auto is focusing on reducing SKU complexity and returning to a single-product strategy reminiscent of the Li ONE and L9 era. The i8 has been streamlined to simplify consumer decision-making and supply chain management [4][13]. - The company is adopting a dual-track approach in autonomous driving chip development, relying on NVIDIA and Horizon solutions in the short term while investing significantly in its in-house M100 chip program for long-term competitiveness [5][13]. Valuation Metrics - The target price for Li Auto is set at HK$99.50, based on a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.5x for 2025, which corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30.5x for the same year. This represents a 27% downgrade from the previous target price of HK$136.84 [2][14].

Market Overview - Southeast Asia ETFs fell by 0.84%, indicating a regional market correction, while Vietnam experienced positive growth[32] - The Southeast Asia ETF outperformed Latin America, India, and Japan, but lagged behind China, Africa, and the UK[32] Country-Specific Performance - Indonesia's iShares MSCI ETF declined by 4.49%, underperforming by 3.65 percentage points due to central bank rate cuts and social events[33] - Singapore's iShares MSCI ETF rose by 1.30%, outperforming by 2.14 percentage points, supported by an upward revision of the 2025 GDP growth forecast[34] - Thailand's iShares MSCI ETF fell by 0.76%, outperforming by 0.08 percentage points, primarily affected by political uncertainty[34] - Malaysia's iShares MSCI ETF decreased by 0.44%, outperforming by 0.40 percentage points, with active trading and stable economic growth in Q2 2025[34] - Vietnam's Global X MSCI ETF increased by 2.88%, outperforming by 3.73 percentage points, bolstered by new decrees reducing land use fees and rents[35] Trading Volume Insights - The Global X FTSE Southeast Asia ETF had a trading volume of 145,000 shares, down 22.9% from the previous period[9] - Indonesia's iShares MSCI ETF saw a trading volume of 9.658 million shares, up 36.9%[10] - Malaysia's iShares MSCI ETF experienced a significant increase in trading volume by 107.5%[10] Risk Factors - The report highlights macroeconomic downturn risks and geopolitical tensions as potential threats to market stability[4][31]

研究报告 Research Report 可选消费 W35 周度趋势解析：全球奢侈品板块触底反弹，A/H 业绩落地主导各子行业表现 Week 35 Discretionary Trends: Global Luxury Sector Bottoms Out and Rebounds, A/H Results Drive Sub-sector Performance [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 耐克 | Outperform 石头科技 | | Outperform | | 美的集团 | Outperform 科沃斯 | | Outperform | | 京东集团 | Outperform 永辉超市 | | Outperform | | 海尔智家 | Outperform 波司登 | | Outperform | | 安踏体育 | Outperform 李宁 | | Outperform | | 格力电器 | Outperform 苏泊尔 | | Outperf ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group [2]. Core Views - The company's performance in 1H25 showed a revenue of CNY 13.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5%, with a focus on licensing deals to enhance profits [14][16]. - The report anticipates that the second quarter of 2025 marked the bottom of the company's performance, with expectations for improvement in the second half of the year [4][16]. Financial Performance Summary - **1H25 Results**: Revenue was CNY 13.3 billion (-18.5% y-o-y), with finished drug revenue at CNY 10.2 billion (-24% y-o-y) and API revenue at CNY 2.1 billion (+12% y-o-y). Gross profit margin (GPM) was 65.6% (-5.9 percentage points) [14][15]. - **2Q25 Results**: Revenue reached CNY 6.3 billion (-14% y-o-y), with finished drug revenue at CNY 4.7 billion (-21% y-o-y). GPM was 64.0% (-6.7 percentage points) [15][16]. - **Net Profit**: Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 2.5 billion (-24% y-o-y) in 1H25 and CNY 1.1 billion (-24% y-o-y) in 2Q25 [14][15]. Business Development and Licensing Opportunities - The company is expected to secure three major out-licensing deals totaling over USD 5 billion within the year, with SYS6010 (EGFR ADC) anticipated to be a significant transaction [17][21]. - The report highlights the potential for the oral GLP-1 drug to expand into global markets, tapping into obesity, diabetes, and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) markets [17][21]. Clinical Development Progress - SYS6010 is progressing well in both domestic and international clinical trials, with over 1,000 patients enrolled globally [18][19]. - The management is actively pursuing multiple indications for SYS6010, including breast cancer and gastrointestinal tumors, with clinical trial plans expected to commence soon [18][19]. Valuation and Forecast Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for FY25 and FY26 have been adjusted to CNY 29.4 billion and CNY 31.2 billion, respectively, reflecting the impact of volume-based procurement and negotiations [21]. - The target price is set at HKD 13.11, based on a 2026 P/E ratio of 29.1x and an EPS forecast of HKD 0.45 [21].