证券研究报 告 【每周经济观察】 宏观研究 十一&中秋假期海外六大要闻 ——海外周报第 109 期 1、股市：全球主要股指全面上涨，日股、韩股、欧股涨幅领先。10 月 1 日 ~6 日，日经 225、韩国综合指数、欧洲斯托克 600 指数、德国 DAX、MSCI 新兴市场指数、富时 100、纳斯达克、法国 CAC40、标普 500、道琼斯和恒 生 指 数 分 别 上 涨 6.7%、3.6%、2.2%、2.1%、1.9%、1.4%、1.2%、1.0%、 0.8%、0.6%和 0.4%。 2、债券：全球主要 10 年期国债收益率上行。10 月 1 日~6 日，10 年期法债、 英债、美债、日债以及意债收益率分别上行 3.2bps、2.1bps、2.0bps、1.5bps 和 0.6bps。 3、大宗：贵金属大幅上涨，原油价格下跌。10 月 1 日~6 日，伦敦现货白 银、伦敦现货黄金和 LME 期铜分别上涨 5.2%、3.2%和 3.0%，布伦特原油和 WTI 原油分别下跌 2.3%和 1.1%。 4、汇率：主要货币中日元汇率跌幅较大。10 月 1 日~6 日，日元下跌 1.6%， 俄罗斯卢布、英镑和美元指数涨幅 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3 2025, the overall default rate of bonds continued to decline, and the repayment rate increased significantly. There were no newly - added first - time default entities, and the default rate of private enterprise credit bonds decreased. The cumulative default repayment rate continued to rise, mainly due to debt restructuring of defaulting enterprises [1][8]. - The Zhongzhuang Construction convertible bond defaulted, and many construction - related enterprises triggered debt restructuring. The cash flow recovery efficiency of the construction industry is expected to improve, and the subsequent pressure may be alleviated [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 Q3: Overall Default Rate Continued to Decline, Repayment Rate Increased Significantly 3.1.1 Bond Default Rate - The overall default rate of credit bonds showed a downward trend. In Q3, there were no newly - added first - time substantial default entities. The total default scale of credit bonds in Q3 was 592 million yuan. From July to September, the overall default rates of credit bonds were 0.98%, 0.97%, and 0.96% respectively [8]. - The default rate of private enterprise credit bonds continued to decline. From July to September, the default amounts of private enterprise bonds were 1.671 billion yuan, 829 million yuan, and 2.126 billion yuan respectively; the default rates were 8.94%, 8.90%, and 8.89% respectively, lower than those in Q2 [8]. 3.1.2 Default Repayment Rate - The cumulative default repayment rate in Q3 2025 continued to rise. From July to September, the cumulative default repayment rates were 14.29%, 14.40%, and 14.42% respectively. The high repayment amount in July drove the repayment rate to rise significantly compared with the previous quarter [13]. - The principal repayment scale of default bonds increased compared with the previous quarter. The debt restructuring of private real - estate enterprises accelerated the bond repurchase progress. Longfor Group, Sunac Group, and Furi Group promoted debt restructuring, and Furi Group completed the merger and restructuring [16]. - In the future, enterprises such as CIFI and Zhenro Properties will successively launch domestic debt restructuring plans, and the default repayment rate of real - estate enterprises is expected to further increase. However, the cash repayment obtained by investors after the restructuring plan is reached is limited, and the overall interests are still difficult to guarantee [17]. 3.1.3 Credit Event Statistics - In Q3 2025, a total of 31 new default bonds were added to domestic bonds, with a total balance of 3.4677 billion yuan. Among them, 26 bonds reached an extension agreement, mostly second - time extensions of bonds of troubled real - estate industry entities. Other industries included Contemporary Technology (medical), Chuying Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (agriculture), and Pengbo Telecom (telecom). There were 5 first - time extension bonds and 4 substantial default bonds [20]. 3.1.4 Urban Investment Sentiment - In Q3 2025, the number of non - standard risk events of urban investment decreased by 3 compared with the previous quarter, mainly distributed in Shandong, Yunnan, and Sichuan. In terms of administrative levels, they were mainly distributed at the district - county and prefecture - city levels, with 3 and 2 cases respectively in Q3 2025, accounting for 60% and 40% respectively. The proportion of non - standard risk events of district - county - level urban investment decreased [24]. - The number of urban investment commercial paper overdue entities remained high. In July and August 2025, the number of urban investment entities with continuous commercial paper overdue (i.e., the acceptor had more than 3 times of bill overdue within 6 months) was 59 and 55 respectively, similar to the level in Q2 2025, and still mainly distributed in Shandong, Yunnan, Henan, Guizhou and other places [27]. 3.2 Hotspot Analysis: Zhongzhuang Construction Convertible Bond Default, Many Construction - Related Enterprises Triggered Restructuring - Zhongzhuang Construction is a private construction enterprise. Due to the adjustment of the real - estate industry in recent years, the company's construction decoration business has faced pressure, and its profit has been mainly contributed by the property management service business. In Q3 2025, the company's convertible bond stopped trading and converting shares. The non - converted scale was 192.5902 million yuan, and the non - converted proportion was 16.06% [30][31]. - Many private and mixed - ownership construction enterprises have defaulted on debts and undergone bankruptcy restructuring. For construction enterprises that have not yet encountered problems, the central government has recently issued the "Accelerating and Strengthening the Clearance of Arrears Owed to Enterprises" plan, which is expected to improve the cash flow recovery efficiency of the construction industry and relieve the subsequent pressure [44][45].

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for September is 49.8%, an increase from the previous value of 49.4%[2] - The production index within the PMI rose to 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from 50.8%[4] - The new orders index is at 49.7%, slightly up from 49.5%[10] Group 2: Sector Performance - The midstream equipment manufacturing PMI reached 51.9%, significantly better than the previous 50.5%[4] - The consumer goods PMI improved to 50.6%, compared to 49.2% previously[4] - The construction industry PMI is at 49.3%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from last month but lower than last year's 50.7%[3] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - The PMI factory price index fell to 48.2%, down from 49.1%, marking 16 consecutive months below the boom-bust line[11] - The main raw materials purchase price index is at 53.2%, slightly down from 53.3%[11] - The finished goods inventory index increased to 48.2%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month[4] Group 4: Expectations and Future Outlook - The manufacturing activity expectation index rose to 54.1%, up from 53.7%[3] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in production activities[10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, with the addition of the traditional "Golden September" peak season, the PMI slightly rebounded below the boom - bust line, but the recovery was still mild, and structural contradictions remained. The production in September drove the PMI to rise by 0.28pct, followed by the employees, while the demand and material inventory contributed less than 0.1pct. The production - new order gap widened, and the PMI increase was weaker than the average in September since 2022, falling short of the seasonality. The economic recovery foundation needs to be strengthened, and the 50 billion yuan policy - based financial instruments may be the key to "break the situation" [6][12]. - For the bond market, the PMI has been below the boom - bust line for 6 consecutive months. The market has fully anticipated the weak data. In the fourth quarter, new policy - based financial instruments will take effect. Attention should be paid to whether data such as new orders are "better than expected". The downstream construction and project expenditures may speed up in the fourth quarter, which may drive the performance of the mid - stream manufacturing industry. Attention should also be paid to whether the PMI can exceed the seasonal level and return above the boom - bust line [6][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Manufacturing PMI: Moderately Upward, Elasticity Awaits Policy Boost (1) Supply and Demand: The Supply - Demand Gap May Widen Again - New orders increased by 0.2pct month - on - month to 49.7%. The impact of high temperature and heavy rain faded, and exports showed resilience, but the intensity of demand recovery was still insufficient as the increase in September was the lowest since 2022 [2][16]. - Production increased by 1.1pct month - on - month to 51.9%, being the largest contributor to PMI improvement. The production peak season was realized, and the procurement volume and production and operation activity expectation index increased. The "production - new order" gap widened to 2.2pct, the highest since the beginning of the year, and the supply - demand differentiation intensified [2][20]. (2) Foreign Trade: New Export Orders Rebound Faster - New export orders increased by 0.6pct month - on - month to 47.8%, and imports increased by 0.1pct to 48.1%. In September, due to the Christmas product export peak season and the demand from non - US economies, exports were stable, and port freight volume remained high. The increase in new export orders in September exceeded that in August and was better than the overall new orders, showing export resilience [24]. - Imports continued the slight upward trend and were at a high level in the same period, indicating that enterprises' demand for import stocking was strong [25]. (3) Price: The Pressure of Price Decline Reappears - In September, the purchase price of raw materials and the ex - factory price decreased by 0.1pct and 0.9pct month - on - month to 53.2% and 48.2% respectively. The supply and demand of the basic raw material industry declined, dragging down the price index, while the prices of industries such as equipment manufacturing improved, showing a large industry differentiation [3][29]. (4) Inventory: Slow Destocking, Active Production, and a Sharp Increase in Product Inventory - In September, the raw material inventory index increased by 0.5pct to 48.5% due to the increase in procurement volume. However, the downstream demand destocking was slow, and the production expanded actively, resulting in a 1.4pct increase in finished product inventory to the highest level in the same period, showing the characteristic of "passive inventory accumulation" [3][31]. II. Non - Manufacturing PMI: The Construction Industry Continues to Be in Low - level Prosperity, Awaiting Policy Effect - In September, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3pct. The service industry PMI decreased by 0.4pct to 50.1%, and the construction industry PMI increased by 0.2pct to 49.3%, remaining below the boom - bust line [36]. - The construction industry expansion was still weak. The business activity indexes of housing construction and civil engineering construction were below 50%. The lack of new orders was the main factor restricting construction. The 50 billion yuan policy - based financial instruments may accelerate the investment rhythm in the fourth quarter and help the construction industry PMI recover [4][36]. - The service industry's prosperity declined in the off - season. After the summer vacation, tourism consumption entered the off - season. The approaching National Day holiday is expected to drive the improvement of travel service consumption [4][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [15]. Core Insights - The company reported significant profit growth, with a 79.4% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, reaching 1.4 billion yuan [2]. - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was 4.91 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year growth, driven by improved store efficiency and expansion of the franchise model [2][8]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its AI ecosystem and has made strategic acquisitions to diversify its service offerings beyond maternal and infant products [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 27.7%, with a net profit margin of 2.9%, showing a 0.9 percentage point increase year-on-year [8]. - The company expects total revenue to grow from 9.34 billion yuan in 2024 to 10.36 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 360 million yuan in 2025, representing a 98.4% year-on-year growth [4][9]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 134.84 billion yuan, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of 38 for 2025 [5][4]. Business Strategy and Growth Drivers - The company is expanding its franchise business model, with over 200 new stores planned, leveraging digital empowerment and innovative store formats [8]. - The introduction of the first Ultra store in Shanghai represents a strategic move to integrate trendy IPs and AI technology into the shopping experience for children and teenagers [8]. - The acquisition of Siyi Industrial marks a shift towards becoming a comprehensive service provider for new families, enhancing the company's growth potential [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 29 yuan [2][8]. Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure in the short term, with a significant decline in revenue and profit. The total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1.246 billion yuan, down 20.92%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 189 million yuan, down 46.82% [2][3]. - The company is making steady progress in expanding its overseas business, which is expected to help mitigate domestic market challenges [2][8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: The projected total revenue for 2025 is 2.634 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 418 million yuan, down 25.5% [4][9]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS for 2025 is forecasted at 0.89 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24 [4][9]. - **Market Capitalization**: The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 9.956 billion yuan [5]. Business Segment Performance - **Chronic Disease Management Testing**: Revenue for this segment was 563 million yuan, down 26.06%. The company is responding to domestic market pressures by launching new products and enhancing its service model [8]. - **Infectious Disease Testing**: Revenue decreased to 379 million yuan, down 21.14%. The company is focusing on maintaining its market position while expanding its product offerings in overseas markets [8]. - **Drug Abuse Testing**: This segment showed a stable growth with revenue of 145 million yuan, up 4.26%, driven by e-commerce strategies [8]. - **Prenatal and Genetic Testing**: Revenue was 138 million yuan, down 11.67%, as the company focuses on product innovation to adapt to market changes [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that considering the domestic demand for products, the pace of international expansion, and stock compensation expenses, the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.2 billion yuan, 4.9 billion yuan, and 5.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [15]. Core Insights - The release of DeepSeek V3.2-Exp model is expected to drive the development of the domestic AI ecosystem, showcasing the synergy between domestic chips and large models, which leads to significant improvements in computational efficiency and cost reduction [5]. - The introduction of the DeepSeek Sparse Attention mechanism allows for a substantial enhancement in long text processing efficiency, overcoming traditional computational complexity limitations [5]. - The cost of AI applications is anticipated to decrease significantly, with the DeepSeek API prices reduced by over 50%, making advanced AI models more accessible to developers and businesses [5]. - Investment focus is recommended on domestic chip manufacturers like Cambricon and Hygon, as well as companies within the Huawei supply chain and various AI application firms [5]. Industry Basic Data - The computer industry comprises 337 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 61,619.92 billion and a circulating market capitalization of about 55,710.57 billion [2]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance of the computer industry over the past 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is -1.6%, 24.3%, and 72.1% respectively, while the relative performance is -4.3%, 6.3%, and 47.3% [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has shown signs of operational improvement in its domestic business, with a notable increase in overseas market performance and the TOP TOY brand continuing to grow rapidly [6] - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 9.39 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.91 billion, down 22.6% year-on-year [6] - The company is shifting its strategy from relying on external licensed IP to a dual approach of "licensing + proprietary," enhancing its brand and product margins [6] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024A: 16,994 million - 2025E: 21,083 million - 2026E: 25,190 million - 2027E: 29,658 million - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at 48.1% for 2024, 24.1% for 2025, 19.5% for 2026, and 17.7% for 2027 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected as follows: - 2024A: 2,618 million - 2025E: 2,421 million - 2026E: 3,398 million - 2027E: 4,240 million - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 48.0% for 2024, -7.5% for 2025, 40.3% for 2026, and 24.8% for 2027 [2] Market Position and Strategy - The company has expanded its store count in mainland China to 4,305 by the end of June 2025, with a net increase of 190 stores compared to the previous year [6] - The overseas market has also seen significant growth, with a net increase of 554 stores, bringing the total to 3,307 [6] - The TOP TOY brand has shown impressive growth, with a net increase of 98 stores globally, reaching a total of 293 [6] Valuation and Price Target - The target price for the company's stock is set at 53.82 HKD, with the current price at 43.82 HKD [2] - The company is expected to achieve a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times for 2026, based on comparable company valuations [6]

Group 1: Market Trends - After the Federal Reserve's September meeting, investors reduced their short positions on the US dollar, with speculative net short positions decreasing from 12,900 to 10,400 contracts, a reduction of 2,500 contracts, representing a decline of 7.9% in total positions[10] - In Q2 2025, the debt leverage ratio across various sectors in the US fell, with household debt leverage dropping to 68.8%, the lowest since Q3 1999[11] - The ratio of US household net wealth to disposable income increased to 7.8 times, reaching the highest level since Q3 2024, with net wealth rising to $176.3 trillion[15] Group 2: Investment Insights - As of July 2025, foreign investors held a record $9.16 trillion in US Treasury securities, an increase of $32 billion from June[16] - US pension funds increased their equity holdings by $900 billion in Q2 2025, bringing total equity holdings to $8.9 trillion[21] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index was 4.3% as of September 26, 2025, indicating potential for valuation uplift compared to historical averages[22] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The forward arbitrage return for China's 10-year government bonds was 31 basis points as of September 26, 2025, up 61 basis points from December 2016[27] - The copper-gold price ratio fell to 2.7, while the offshore RMB exchange rate rose to 7.1, indicating diverging signals in demand dynamics[34] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds in China was 28.2, above the average level of the past 16 years, suggesting enhanced attractiveness of equity assets[36]

证 券 研 究 报 告 汇通达网络（09878.HK）2025 年中报点评 推荐（维持） 提质增效显现成效，AI+SaaS 商业化开启 目标价：21.36 港元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年中报：2025 年上半年公司实现收入 243.4 亿元，同比-25.9%； 归母净利润 1.4 亿元，同比+10.8%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 60,059 | 53,513 | 57,819 | 62,010 | | 同比增速(%) | -27.2% | -10.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 270 | 346 | 438 | 533 | | 同比增速(%) | -39.8% | 28.3% | 26.6% | 21.6% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.48 | 0.62 | 0.78 | 0.95 | | 市盈率(倍) | 32.5 | 25.3 | 20.0 | 16 ...