Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3400 points last week before retreating, leading to a slight increase in social media activity[2] - Retail investor net inflow reached 95.47 billion CNY, an increase of 58.47 billion CNY from the previous value, marking a new high in nearly two months[2] Fund Trends - The trend of public funds clustering has weakened, with a shift towards growth sectors, particularly in electronics and cyclical industries[2] - Among public fund heavyweights, 30% have outperformed since September 2018, with concentration in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and computing sectors[2] Social Media Insights - Social media discussions about A-shares have seen a slight uptick, with platforms like Kuaishou and Douyin maintaining high engagement levels, while Weibo and Baidu remain relatively calm[5] - The demographic of Douyin users watching A-share content has shifted, with an increase in the proportion of middle-aged and older users[7] Retail Participation - The number of retail investors participating in financing and margin trading has increased, with a net inflow of financing funds of 8.04 billion CNY, up 0.85 billion CNY from the previous week[35] - The number of individual investors in financing and margin trading reached 745.8 thousand, reflecting a 0.14% increase from the previous value[35]

证券研究报告 【每周经济观察】 四个关系看居民工资 主要观点 根据居民住户调查,2024年,全国居民人均可支配收入 41314元,全国居民 人均工资性收入 23327元,即可支配收入中来自工资性收入的比重为 56.5%。 2025年1 李度,这一比例为 57.3%,从2013年以来的同期数据来看,这一比 例属于历史同期偏高水平。 表中的劳动者报酬包括),包括现金收入和实物收入,包含个人所得税、个人 缴纳的社会保险等的应发收入。 二、哪些群体的工资增速更快? * 关于工资数据,需要强调的是不包括单位缴纳的社保和公积金(注:资金流量 宏观研究 每周经济观察 2025年06月16日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:张瑜 电话:010-66500887 邮箱:zhangyu3@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360518090001 证券分析师:陆银波 电话:010-66500831 邮箱:luyinbo@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360519100003 (一)分城乡:农村居民工资增速更高 2024年城镇居民人均工资性收入增速为5.04%,与 GDP 增速基本持平。农村 居民人均工资性收入增速为 6.94%, ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [64]. Core Insights - The SNEC exhibition showcased over 3,000 solar energy companies, focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements amid a period of supply-demand imbalance and price fluctuations in the photovoltaic industry [12][1]. - Companies are emphasizing technological innovation to enhance conversion efficiency and component power, with a notable reduction in large-scale advertising compared to previous exhibitions [12][1]. - The demand for storage solutions is increasing, with companies integrating photovoltaic and storage technologies to offer advanced system solutions [13][2]. - The overall production of components is expected to decrease by approximately 10% month-on-month, with specific price adjustments observed across various materials in the supply chain [14][2]. Summary by Sections Section 1: SNEC Focus on Cost Reduction and Efficiency - The SNEC PV+ exhibition took place from June 11-13, 2025, in Shanghai, covering an area of 380,000 square meters with over 3,000 participating companies, including more than 900 foreign enterprises [12][1]. - Companies are focusing on technological advancements, particularly in battery components, to drive cost reduction and efficiency improvements [12][1]. - Key companies to watch include Aiko Solar and Longi Green Energy, which are leading in BC technology mass production expected to ramp up in the second half of the year [12][1]. Section 2: Market Demand and Price Adjustments - The overall component production is estimated at approximately 53 GW for June, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of about 10% [14][2]. - Silicon material prices have been adjusted downward due to decreased demand, with N-type silicon material prices ranging from 35,000 to 38,000 RMB per ton, averaging 36,700 RMB per ton, a decrease of 2.13% [14][2]. - Prices for silicon wafers and battery cells have also shown slight declines, with specific price variations noted for different sizes of battery cells [14][2]. Section 3: Industry Performance Review - The overall industry index increased by 0.63% this week, while the electric power equipment industry index decreased by 0.46% [15][2]. - The photovoltaic equipment sector saw a decline of 0.75%, with notable fluctuations in individual stock performances within the sector [19][2]. - The current PE (Price to Earnings) ratio for the electric power equipment industry stands at 24x, with the photovoltaic equipment sector at 17x, indicating varying levels of valuation across sub-sectors [25][29].

Investment Strategy - Oil prices are expected to remain high due to limited supply and escalating geopolitical conflicts, particularly the recent Israel-Iran conflict which has led to a significant increase in oil prices [11][28][29] - Global oil and gas capital expenditures have been declining since 2015, with a notable reduction of nearly 122% from 2014 levels, leading to cautious investment from major oil companies [9][28] - The active rig count in the US remains low, which will slow down the release of oil and gas production capacity in the short term [9][28] Oil Market - Brent crude oil spot price increased to $70.96 per barrel, up 5.16% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil spot price rose to $67.89 per barrel, up 7.17% [11][30] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran, pose a risk of supply disruptions, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for global oil transport [11][29] Coal Market - The average market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is reported at 609 RMB per ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.04% week-on-week, indicating weak terminal demand [12][13] - The overall coal market is under pressure due to weak demand from the cement and non-electric industries, with procurement activities remaining slow [12][13] Coking Coal Market - Coking coal prices have decreased, with the price for Jizhou coking coal reported at 1,310 RMB per ton, down 4.96% week-on-week, leading to increased losses for coking enterprises [14][15] - The supply of coking coal remains relatively ample, but demand from downstream steel mills is weak, contributing to a bearish market outlook [14][15] Natural Gas Market - Russia's natural gas exports to China are expected to increase by 7 billion cubic meters by 2025, driven by pipeline expansions [16] - The average price of NYMEX natural gas decreased to $3.55 per million British thermal units, down 4.7% week-on-week, while European gas prices have shown an upward trend [16][17] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services sector is experiencing a recovery due to increased capital expenditures driven by high oil prices and supportive government policies aimed at boosting oil and gas production [18][19] - The global active rig count decreased to 1,576 units, indicating a slight contraction in drilling activities, particularly in the Middle East [19]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [18]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the average returns for various quantitative strategies have been positive, with the A500 Enhanced Strategy showing a year-to-date average return of +7.3% and an average excess return of +9.8% [3]. - The report also notes significant fluctuations in trading volumes across different indices, with the CSI 500 showing a year-to-date average daily trading volume of 2,101 billion, reflecting a 50.1% increase [5]. - The report identifies the top-performing sectors over the past month, with Pharmaceuticals and Biotech leading at +9.8%, followed by Oil and Petrochemicals at +5.4% [6]. Summary by Sections Trading Volume Analysis - The average daily trading volume for the CSI 300 has been 2,927 billion, with a year-to-date increase of +26.6% [5]. - The CSI 1000 has shown a year-to-date average daily trading volume of 2,989 billion, reflecting an increase of +80.8% [5]. Sector Performance - The top three sectors for the week were Oil and Petrochemicals (+4.4%), Non-ferrous Metals (+3.5%), and National Defense and Military Industry (+2.3%) [6]. - The worst-performing sectors for the week included Consumer Retail (-4.3%), Telecom Services (-3.3%), and Semiconductors (-3.3%) [6]. Basis and Spread Analysis - The report indicates that the basis remains high, with the annualized discount for the current month contracts for IF/IC/IM at +12.3%, +11.9%, and +21.7%, respectively [6].

Policy Developments - The Chinese government is promoting institutional opening-up measures, particularly in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, to establish a higher-level open economy system[2] - Shenzhen is tasked with new reform initiatives in finance, low-altitude economy, data, and pharmaceuticals, including allowing companies from the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange[4] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to revise and expand the "Encouraging Foreign Investment Industry Catalog" to facilitate foreign investment and reinvestment in China[3] Economic Stability Measures - The State Council emphasizes stabilizing expectations, activating demand, optimizing supply, and mitigating risks in the real estate market to prevent further declines[5] - The government aims to improve social security and public services, including increasing minimum wage standards and enhancing educational resources[6] International Trade Relations - A recent agreement between China and the U.S. involves a 55% tariff on Chinese goods and a 10% tariff on U.S. goods, with China continuing to export magnets and rare earth materials to the U.S.[21] - The Ministry of Commerce is working to expand market access for foreign investments in sectors like cloud computing and biotechnology, while ensuring fair competition for foreign enterprises[22]

Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of Xinjiang in the context of national policies shifting from coastal economies to the Belt and Road Initiative, positioning Xinjiang as a frontier hub with significant resource advantages for energy security and coal chemical industry development [7][8][10] - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is expected to thrive due to favorable external conditions, including rising coal prices and the need for energy security, aligning with China's resource endowment and industrial policy [7][8][9] Xinjiang Index Situation - The Xinjiang index stands at 105.38, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.13%, while the Xinjiang coal chemical investment index is at 102.54, up by 0.43% [14] - The top three companies in terms of weekly gains include: - Jun Oil Co., Ltd. (002207.SZ) with a rise of 12.27% - Western Gold (601069.SH) up by 11.61% - Dexin Technology (603032.SH) increasing by 10.97% [14] Key Data Tracking - The report highlights key coal prices in Xinjiang, with Q5000 mixed coal priced at 100 CNY/ton and Q5200 mixed coal at 197 CNY/ton, both remaining stable week-on-week [19] - In April 2025, the coal railway shipment volume from state-owned key coal mines was 3.35 million tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 3.76%, while the raw coal production in Xinjiang reached 39.239 million tons, an increase of 8.49% year-on-year [19] Key News and Company Announcements - Xinjiang Xinye Group is advancing a 15.5 billion CNY coal-to-natural gas project, with public participation approval underway, and the project is expected to produce 2 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually [31][34] - The report notes significant progress in various coal chemical projects, including the National Energy Group's coal-to-natural gas project, which has completed multiple equipment tenders [38][39] Overview of Target Companies - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in coal chemical investments in Xinjiang, including: - Tebian Electric Apparatus Stock Co., Ltd. - Baofeng Energy - Guanghui Energy - Hubei Yihua - Zhongji Health [11][12] - Companies providing services to coal chemical projects, such as mining services and transportation, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [11][12]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 四个关系看居民工资 主要观点 ❖ 前言：本周主要聚焦居民工资。国内居民工资的调查来自季度的居民住户调查 以及年度的劳动工资调查。我们从四个关系予以分析目前的工资情况。包括可 支配收入中工资的占比（收入有多依赖工资）、不同群体工资增速的强与弱、 工资总额的分配变化、工资增速与转移性支出增速的比较（工资扣除项）。 ❖ 一、可支配收入中有多少来自工资？ 根据居民住户调查，2024 年，全国居民人均可支配收入 41314 元，全国居民 人均工资性收入 23327 元，即可支配收入中来自工资性收入的比重为 56.5%。 2025 年 1 季度，这一比例为 57.3%，从 2013 年以来的同期数据来看，这一比 例属于历史同期偏高水平。 关于工资数据，需要强调的是不包括单位缴纳的社保和公积金（注：资金流量 表中的劳动者报酬包括），包括现金收入和实物收入，包含个人所得税、个人 缴纳的社会保险等的应发收入。 ❖ 二、哪些群体的工资增速更快？ （一）分城乡：农村居民工资增速更高 2024 年城镇居民人均工资性收入增速为 5.04%，与 GDP 增速基本持平。农村 居民人均工资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the chemical industry, particularly focusing on new materials, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in prices for chemical products, driven by a recent easing of tariffs in the US-China trade war, which has led to increased foreign trade inquiries and shipping prices [8]. - The chemical industry is currently experiencing a dual bottom in profitability and valuation, with a projected ROE-PB of 6.19% and 1.77 for 2024, and a recovery to 7.55% and 1.85 in Q1 2025 [8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic production capabilities in new materials, particularly in light of the ongoing trade tensions and the need for self-sufficiency [9]. - The new materials sector has shown strong performance, outpacing the broader market indices, with a weekly change of 1.98% compared to a decline in major indices [10]. Industry Updates - The report notes that the new materials sector is expected to benefit from a shift towards domestic production and the reduction of import dependencies, particularly in critical areas [9]. - The report identifies specific new materials with high growth potential, including ETO, nucleating agents, aramid paper, PI films, industrial coatings, and ion exchange resins [9]. - The report also mentions the investigation into DuPont China by the National Market Supervision Administration, which could create opportunities for domestic companies in the same sector [11]. Trading Data - The Huachuang Chemical Industry Index stands at 75.23, reflecting a decrease of 1.08% week-on-week and a year-on-year decline of 24.76% [18]. - The report provides detailed statistics on price changes for various materials, indicating a mixed performance with some materials like SAF Europe FOB prices increasing by 3.00% while high-purity hydrogen saw a decrease of 10.00% [19][22]. New Materials Subsector Tracking - The report tracks various subsectors within new materials, including advancements in battery safety standards, which are set to be enforced in 2026, potentially impacting the materials used in electric vehicle batteries [12]. - The report highlights the growth in the smartphone market, with a 3.3% year-on-year increase in shipments, benefiting the consumer electronics materials sector [13]. - The report discusses funding initiatives in Shenzhen aimed at supporting AI terminal technology, which may influence the materials used in smart devices [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second week of June, Sino-US economic and trade negotiations further clarified the agreement framework, releasing positive macro signals. Meanwhile, the impact of heavy precipitation expanded, leading to a marginal decline in the apparent demand for construction-related investment products. In terms of inflation, the decline in food prices continued to widen. In terms of exports, affected by the restoration of North American route capacity and the decline in freight rates, the SCFI index decreased week-on-week this week, while the overall demand in the container shipping market remained stable. In the industrial sector, influenced by supply contraction regulation and expectations, the prices of some industrial products slightly recovered. Attention should be paid to the support of the demand side for the sustainability of price increases. In terms of investment, the impact of the rainy season in the South continued to expand this week, resulting in a slowdown in the release of downstream investment demand, and the apparent demand for rebar continued to decline week-on-week. In the real estate sector, after the impact of the Dragon Boat Festival ended, the transactions of new and second-hand houses increased week-on-week this week, and the trading sentiment improved [4][38]. - For the bond market, the current endogenous economic momentum remains stable, with limited short-term marginal changes. The market may focus more on the rhythm and intensity of the pro-growth policies in the third quarter. Policy expectation games may bring trading opportunities. The year-on-year export growth rate in May slowed down compared with April. The data in May did not fully reflect the benefits of the easing of negotiations due to the impact of the tariff incident in the first half of the month. From a high-frequency perspective, the year-on-year growth rate of port container throughput in early June continued to narrow, and it decreased week-on-week compared with the last week of May. The export elasticity brought about by "rush exports" needs further observation. Domestically, it is the traditional off-season in the second quarter, and there are few fundamental increments, making it difficult to provide trend guidance for the bond market in the short term. The market may focus more on the future policy implementation methods and rhythm, including whether additional consumption subsidies will be added and the implementation time of policy-based financial instruments. Considering the slow endogenous economic momentum in the second quarter, a new batch of pro-growth policies in the third quarter is expected to be deployed more quickly. Around the middle of the year, attention can be paid to the trading opportunities brought about by policy expectation games and potential bond market fluctuations [4][39]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inflation-related - The decline in food prices widened. This week (June 9 - June 13), the average wholesale price of pork nationwide announced by the Ministry of Agriculture decreased by 1.45% week-on-week, with an expanding decline. The vegetable price decreased by 0.09% week-on-week, turning from an increase to a decrease. This week, the 200-index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of vegetable basket products decreased by 0.45% and 0.51% week-on-week respectively, indicating a wider decline in food prices [10]. Import and Export-related - The shipping market declined from its high this week, with different trends among routes. The CCFI index increased by 7.6% week-on-week, while the SCFI decreased by 6.8% week-on-week, ending a four-week upward trend. According to the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, the export container shipping market declined after continuous increases this week, with different trends among routes. Among them, the freight rate of the Shanghai Port to European basic ports route increased by 10.6% week-on-week. The transportation demand on the North American route was stable this week, but the supply of shipping capacity continued to increase, alleviating the previous tight cabin situation and causing the freight rate to decline from its high. In terms of port data, in the week from June 2 to June 8, the port's container throughput and cargo throughput decreased by 1.9% and 7.9% week-on-week respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1% and 0.8% respectively. The week-on-week decline expanded, and the year-on-year increase narrowed. Overall, the port operation rhythm slowed down marginally [13]. - The increase in the BDI index expanded. This week, the average value of the BDI index increased by 18.2% week-on-week, and the CDFI index increased by 3.2% week-on-week. The increase in the number of Indonesian coal futures contracts for end-of-month loading in the Pacific market and the improvement in demand drove up the freight rate. The stable and increasing demand for South American grain also supported the freight rate, pushing the BDI to rise rapidly [13]. Industry-related - The price of thermal coal continued to decline, with a narrowing decline. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 0.04% week-on-week, compared with a 0.29% decrease the previous week, indicating a continued weak coal price. In terms of demand, due to high temperatures in many places, the residential electricity load generally increased, and the downstream replenishment demand continued to be released. However, the flood season in the South and the increase in hydropower squeezed some thermal power demand, resulting in a limited increase in the daily consumption of terminal power plants. In terms of price, although the downstream replenishment demand was released, it was mainly fulfilled through long-term contracts, so the port coal price was not significantly boosted [17]. - The price of rebar increased week-on-week. This week, the spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 0.4% week-on-week, compared with a 0.65% decrease the previous week. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.4%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points week-on-week, indicating a continued reduction in production. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 3.7% week-on-week, compared with a 8.1% decrease the previous week, continuing to decline marginally. During the traditional off-season for steel consumption, affected by heavy precipitation in the South and other factors, the construction demand slowed down marginally. The supply contraction speed was relatively slower than the demand decline, so the steel price continued to be slightly under pressure [17]. - The increase in copper prices expanded. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River Nonferrous copper and LME copper increased by 0.7% and 0.3% week-on-week respectively, continuing to rise. Positive signals were released during the Sino-US negotiation in London this week, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September was strengthened, supporting the continued rise of copper prices [21]. - The spot price of glass remained basically stable. This week, affected by the precipitation weather, the market procurement demand was average. Some local manufacturers reduced prices to clear inventory, and market sentiment became more cautious. However, the current supply and demand were basically balanced, and there was still support from rigid demand, so most enterprises kept their quotes stable [21]. Investment-related - The cement price turned from a decline to an increase, mainly driven by the expected supply contraction in East China. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index increased by 1.1% week-on-week, compared with a 1.1% decrease the previous week. The implementation of the kiln shutdown plan by cement enterprises in June, coupled with the increase in clinker prices, drove up the cement prices in some downstream regions. However, from the perspective of supply and demand, with the increasing rainy weather, construction was relatively restricted, and the support of demand for price increases needs further observation [25]. - The sales of new houses in 30 cities showed marginal improvement. From last Friday to this Thursday (June 6 - June 12), the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities was 1.758 million square meters, an increase of 9.5% week-on-week and 10.5% year-on-year, turning from a decline to an increase. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the sales momentum of new houses recovered marginally [28]. - The transaction of second-hand houses increased week-on-week and turned positive year-on-year. This week (June 6 - June 12), the transaction area of second-hand houses in 17 cities was 2.013 million square meters, an increase of 30.1% week-on-week and 23.3% year-on-year. Attention should be paid to the intensity of the seasonal sales rush as the end of the half-year approaches [28]. Consumption - The year-on-year increase in passenger car retail sales expanded in early June. From June 1 to June 8, passenger car retail sales increased by 19% year-on-year (the full-month year-on-year increase in May was 13%), and decreased by 12% month-on-month [33]. - Affected by the geopolitical situation, crude oil prices rose rapidly. As of Friday, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 11.7% and 13.0% week-on-week respectively, showing a strong upward trend. This week, positive signals from Sino-US negotiations, tightened US sanctions on Iran, and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East may have driven up oil prices [34].