Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the technology sector in A-shares, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [35]. Core Views - The delivery of Broadcom's Tomahawk 6 (TH6) chip marks a significant breakthrough in AI infrastructure, addressing network bottlenecks and enhancing GPU utilization from 40% to over 90%, which is crucial for training large AI models [17][18]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the communication sector, which has outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 4.40 percentage points this week, with a 5.27% increase [9][11]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the domestic communication industry, particularly in light of the advancements in AI infrastructure and the increasing focus on high-performance technology [27][28]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The communication industry consists of 124 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 48,971.71 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 21,813.38 billion [2]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance of the communication sector over the past month is 7.2%, 6 months is 2.2%, and 12 months is 30.5% [3]. Market Review - The communication sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 0.94%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which has decreased by 1.55% [9]. - The top five gainers in the communication sector this week include Huamai Technology (+33.74%), ST Zhongjia (+33.33%), and Taicheng Light (+30.31%) [14]. Broadcom's TH6 Chip Delivery - The TH6 chip has a switching capacity of 102.4 Tbps, doubling the current market standard and increasing throughput by six times compared to its predecessor [17]. - The chip's architecture allows for high-density, low-loss connections, significantly reducing latency and power consumption [18][19]. Broadcom's Q2 FY25 Financial Analysis - Broadcom reported a revenue of 15 billion USD for Q2 FY25, a 20% year-on-year increase, driven primarily by AI business growth [23]. - The semiconductor business generated 8.4 billion USD, with AI business revenue reaching 4.4 billion USD, indicating a strong growth outlook for the second half of the year [24]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom for operators; New Yisheng, Tianfu Communication, and Zhongji Xuchuang for optical modules; and Haige Communication for military and satellite communications [29].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved in the innovative drug sector. Core Insights - Enhertu combined with pertuzumab shows a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 40.7 months for HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer, significantly outperforming the standard THP therapy which has an mPFS of 26.9 months [12][14] - The report highlights the increasing sales of Enhertu, projected to reach $3.754 billion in 2024, indicating strong market potential for HER2-targeted therapies [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of ADC (antibody-drug conjugate) technology in enhancing treatment efficacy for various cancers, particularly in combination with immune checkpoint inhibitors [17] Summary by Sections Section 1: Innovative Drug Focus - The report reviews the latest advancements in innovative drugs, particularly focusing on HER2-positive breast cancer treatments and the performance of Enhertu in clinical trials [4][5] Section 2: Clinical Trial Data - The DESTINY-Breast09 trial results indicate that Enhertu combined with pertuzumab significantly reduces the risk of disease progression or death by 44% compared to THP [14] - The overall response rate (ORR) for Enhertu plus pertuzumab is reported at 85.1%, compared to 78.6% for THP, showcasing the superior efficacy of the combination therapy [12][14] Section 3: Market Dynamics - The report outlines the competitive landscape for HER2 ADCs, listing various drugs in different stages of development and their respective companies [18] - It notes that the ADC market is expected to expand significantly, with potential market growth of 100-200% for certain indications due to the integration of ADCs with existing therapies [17] Section 4: Recent Announcements - Recent announcements from companies like 恒瑞医药 and 康宁杰瑞 highlight ongoing clinical trials and new drug applications, indicating a vibrant pipeline in the innovative drug sector [33][34]

债券研究 存单周报（0602-0608）：资金预期有所缓和， 关注存单配置价值 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 债券周报 2025 年 06 月 08 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：周冠南 电话：010-66500886 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 证券分析师：宋琦 电话：010-63214665 邮箱：songqi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080002 相关研究报告 《【华创固收】关注震荡市场利差被动走阔的加 仓机会——信用周报 20250607》 2025-06-07 《【华创固收】地产销售加速走弱——每周高频 跟踪 20250607 》 2025-06-07 《【华创固收】跨半年以呵护为主，资金压力可控 ——6 月流动性月报》 2025-06-06 《【华创固收】存款利率调降对信用债影响几 何？——6 月信用债策略月报》 2025-06-05 《【华创固收】下修博弈回归常态，超额收益更看 择券——6 月可转债月报》 2025-06-04 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 有色金属行业周报（20250602-20250606） 美国铜铝关税政策催化，多因素驱动贵金属 推荐（维持） 大幅上涨 ❑ 一、工业金属 ❑ 1、行业观点：美国宣布上调钢铝 232 关税，避险情绪导致贵金属价格上涨 ❑ 行业观点 2：国内铝锭库存持续去化，铝棒或开启累库 基本面上，本周五，上期所阴极铜库存 10.74 万吨，环比上周增加 1613 吨， COMEX 库存 187877 吨，环比上周增加 7428 吨；LME 铜库存 13.24 万吨， 环 比上周减少 17475 吨；本周四，全球社会显性库存 48.2 万吨，环比上周四 增加 12579 吨。重点推荐贵金属板块的赤峰黄金、中金黄金、山金国际、山东 黄金，建议关注招金矿业；白银推荐兴业银锡，建议关注盛达资源、白银有色、 湖南白银；建议关注铜板块紫金矿业、金诚信、西部矿业，铝板块建议关注中 国宏桥、宏创控股、天山铝业、神火铝业、云铝股份、中孚实业、南山铝业、 南山铝业国际。 ❑ 二、新能源金属及小金属 ❑ 1、行业观点：缅甸锡复产缓慢叠加社会库存下降，周内锡价抬升 ❑ 事件：据 Mysteel 调研统计，截止 2025 年 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Broad-based Index Rotation Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on the weekly change rate of the total sentiment heat (MA2) for broad-based indices. The model selects the index with the highest heat change rate for investment, while staying in cash if the "Other" group has the highest rate [7][12][15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the weekly heat change rate for each broad-based index (CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and "Other") 2. Smooth the weekly change rate using a 2-period moving average (MA2) 3. At the end of each week, invest in the index with the highest MA2 heat change rate. If the "Other" group has the highest rate, remain in cash [8][9][12] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates a systematic approach to capturing short-term sentiment-driven opportunities in broad-based indices [12][15] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Broad-based Index Rotation Strategy - **Annualized Return (2017-Present)**: 8.74% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 23.5% - **2025 YTD Return**: 10.6% [15] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Total Sentiment Heat - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor aggregates the sentiment heat of individual stocks within a broader category (broad-based indices, industries, or concepts) to serve as a proxy for market sentiment [7] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Define the total sentiment heat for individual stocks as the sum of their browsing, watchlist, and click counts 2. Normalize the sentiment heat by dividing it by the total market heat on the same day 3. Multiply the normalized value by 10,000 to scale the indicator within the range [0, 10,000] 4. Aggregate the total sentiment heat of all constituent stocks within a specific category (e.g., broad-based indices, industries, or concepts) [7] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures market sentiment dynamics, particularly at the individual stock level, where mispricing due to limited attention is more pronounced [7] 2. Factor Name: Weekly Heat Change Rate (MA2) - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the weekly change rate of sentiment heat for a specific category, smoothed using a 2-period moving average (MA2) [7][19][27] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the weekly change rate of total sentiment heat for each category (e.g., broad-based indices, industries, or concepts) 2. Apply a 2-period moving average (MA2) to smooth the weekly change rate [19][27] - **Factor Evaluation**: The MA2 smoothing process enhances the stability of the factor, making it suitable for identifying short-term sentiment trends [19][27] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Total Sentiment Heat - **Indicator Range**: [0, 10,000] (normalized and scaled) [7] 2. Weekly Heat Change Rate (MA2) - **Broad-based Indices**: - CSI 500: +2.11% (highest weekly increase) - CSI 1000: -1.54% (lowest weekly decrease) [15] - **Industries (Shenwan Level 1)**: - Top 5 Positive Changes: Communication (+29.1%), Environmental Protection, Computer, Building Materials, Social Services - Top 5 Negative Changes: Automotive, Coal, Transportation, Utilities, Comprehensive (-35.2%) [26] - **Concepts**: - Top 5 Positive Changes: Football Concept (+152.7%), Military Restructuring (+128.7%), Dental Medical (+93.4%), Beer Concept (+90.7%), Digital Currency (+84.5%) [27][30] 3. Heat-based Concept Portfolios - **BOTTOM Portfolio**: - **Annualized Return**: 15.71% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 28.89% - **2025 YTD Return**: 22.3% [32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive sector, particularly for complete vehicles and robotics, with an optimistic outlook for annual sales [2][3]. Core Insights - The automotive sector continues to show weak performance, influenced by previous news regarding price cuts and competition, alongside investor concerns about sales post-subsidy reductions in 2026. However, the report maintains that the risk of a severe price war this year is low and that sales expectations remain optimistic [2][3]. - Positive industry developments include Tesla's robot factory audit, Changan's management upgrade, and Li Auto's weekly sales exceeding 10,000 units, which support better stock performance for related companies [2][3]. Data Tracking - In April, wholesale passenger car sales reached 2.22 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11% but a month-on-month decrease of 10%. Retail sales were 1.59 million units, up 6% year-on-year but down 14% month-on-month [4][21]. - New energy vehicle manufacturers showed significant growth in May, with BYD delivering 382,476 units (up 15% year-on-year), and Li Auto achieving 40,856 units (up 16.7% year-on-year) [4][20]. - The average discount rate in late May rose to 7.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous period and 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [4][22]. Industry Research - Recommended stocks include Li Auto and Jianghuai Automobile, with a focus on companies like BAIC Blue Valley, SAIC Motor, Xpeng Motors, and Xiaomi Group. Li Auto is expected to see sales improvements and new model launches, while Xpeng is preparing for the launch of the G7 [6]. - In the components sector, the report recommends Top Group, Haoneng Co., and others, highlighting the growth potential in high-level autonomous driving technologies [6]. - The heavy truck segment is expected to continue its strong performance, with recommendations for Weichai Power and Sinotruk [6]. Market Performance - The automotive sector index decreased by 0.09% this week, ranking 23rd out of 29 sectors. In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13% [8][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the steel industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand, leading to a bottoming out of steel prices [2][3]. - The current demand situation suggests that inventory may soon reach a turning point, despite the ongoing weak demand [2]. - The industry is expected to maintain a bottoming and fluctuating price trend in the short term due to increased maintenance in steel mills, which may lead to supply contraction [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - As of June 6, the prices for five major steel products are reported as follows: rebar at 3,218 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,558 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,224 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,646 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,451 CNY/ton, with weekly changes of +0.05%, +0.08%, +0.10%, -0.12%, and -0.64% respectively [1][15]. - The total production of the five major products is 8.8038 million tons, a decrease of 0.47 thousand tons week-on-week [1]. - The average daily molten iron output from 247 steel enterprises is 2.418 million tons, down 0.11 thousand tons week-on-week [1]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is 90.65%, down 0.04 percentage points week-on-week [1]. - The operating rate for electric arc furnaces is 76.69%, down 1.09 percentage points week-on-week [1]. (b) Consumption Data - The total consumption of the five major steel products is 8.8217 million tons, a decrease of 316.2 thousand tons week-on-week [1]. - The apparent consumption of rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and medium plate shows week-on-week changes of -196.5 thousand tons, -2.6 thousand tons, -60.1 thousand tons, +13.8 thousand tons, and -70.9 thousand tons respectively [1]. (c) Inventory Situation - The total steel inventory is 13.6381 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 thousand tons week-on-week [1]. - Social inventory decreased by 15.3 thousand tons to 9.3101 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 2.6 thousand tons to 4.3280 million tons [1]. (d) Profitability - The average cost of molten iron for 114 steel mills is 2,362 CNY/ton, down 37 CNY/ton week-on-week [1]. - The gross profit per ton for rebar, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil is +99 CNY/ton, +33 CNY/ton, and -62 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of +9 CNY/ton, 0 CNY/ton, and +62 CNY/ton [1]. 3. Industry Policy and Outlook - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to optimize industrial layout and promote the exit of inefficient production capacity while increasing high-end capacity supply [3][4]. - The steel industry is expected to continue its profit recovery, with potential for greater elasticity in profits if supply-side adjustments are effectively implemented [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the technology sector in A-shares, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [35]. Core Insights - The delivery of Broadcom's Tomahawk 6 (TH6) switch chip marks a significant breakthrough in AI infrastructure, enhancing network capabilities and addressing bottlenecks in AI computing [17][19]. - The communication industry has shown strong performance, with a 5.27% increase in the index, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.40 percentage points [9][11]. - Broadcom's Q2 FY25 financial results indicate a 20% year-on-year revenue growth, driven primarily by the strong performance of its AI business [23][24]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The communication industry comprises 124 stocks with a total market value of 48,971.71 billion and a circulating market value of 21,813.38 billion [2]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 7.2%, 2.2%, and 30.5% respectively, while the relative performance is 5.5%, 4.7%, and 22.7% [3]. Market Review - The communication sector has outperformed both the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices this week, with notable stock performances including Huamai Technology (+33.74%) and ST Zhongjia (+33.33%) [6][14]. Broadcom TH6 Chip Delivery - The TH6 chip offers a switching capacity of 102.4 Tbps, doubling the current market standard and increasing throughput by six times compared to its predecessor [17][18]. Financial Analysis of Broadcom - Broadcom's Q2 FY25 revenue reached 15 billion USD, with AI business revenue at 4.4 billion USD, reflecting a 46% year-on-year increase [23][24]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom for operators, and New Yisheng, Tianfu Communication, and Zhongji Xuchuang for optical modules and chips [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [36]. Core Insights - The computer industry has entered a rebound phase, with significant developments in AI technology and strategic mergers, particularly the merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang, which is expected to create a leading player in the domestic computing power sector [7][18]. - The report highlights the acceleration of mergers and acquisitions in the industry, driven by policy support and the need for vertical integration in the "chip-server" sector [9][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming events in June, which are expected to catalyze the commercialization of AI technologies and boost the technology market [7][18]. Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Viewpoint - The computer index rose by 3.26% from June 3 to June 6, outperforming the ChiNext index by 0.94 percentage points, ranking 4th among 30 sectors [14]. - Key stocks that performed well include Huijin Co. (up 50.54%), Qingyun Technology-U (up 38.27%), and Zhongdian Xilong (up 32.72%) [7][14]. Market Performance Review - The report notes that the overall A-share market experienced a net outflow of 69.06 billion yuan, while the computer sector saw a minor net outflow of 15.6 million yuan during the same period [15]. Strategic Mergers and Acquisitions - The merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang is positioned as a significant event, potentially creating a "carrier-level" enterprise in the domestic computing power field, with a combined market value exceeding 400 billion yuan [18][19]. - The report outlines the supportive policies for mergers and acquisitions, including the "New National Nine Articles" and "Science and Technology Innovation Board Eight Articles," which encourage industry consolidation [9][24]. Investment Recommendations and Related Stocks - The report suggests focusing on key players in various segments, including: - Chips: Haiguang Information, Cambrian, Longxin Zhongke, and Jingjia Micro [26]. - Servers: China Great Wall, Zhongke Shuguang, Unisplendour, Inspur Information, and Digital China [26]. - Operating Systems: China Software, Chengmai Technology, and Kirin Software [26]. - Databases: Dameng Data, Haimass Data, and Tai Chi Software [26].

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Volume Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates market timing based on trading volume dynamics[10][64] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a neutral stance for the short term[10][64] 2. Model Name: Low Volatility Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model assesses market timing by analyzing low volatility trends in the market[10][64] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a neutral stance for the short term[10][64] 3. Model Name: Institutional Feature Model (Dragon-Tiger List) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses institutional trading features from the Dragon-Tiger list to predict market movements[10][64] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a bearish outlook for the short term[10][64] 4. Model Name: Feature Volume Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages specific volume features to predict market trends[10][64] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a bearish outlook for the short term[10][64] 5. Model Name: Intelligent CSI 300 Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model applies intelligent algorithms to predict movements in the CSI 300 index[10][64] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a bullish outlook for the short term[10][64] 6. Model Name: Intelligent CSI 500 Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model applies intelligent algorithms to predict movements in the CSI 500 index[10][64] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a bearish outlook for the short term[10][64] 7. Model Name: Limit-Up/Down Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates market timing based on the frequency of limit-up and limit-down events[11][65] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a bullish outlook for the mid-term[11][65] 8. Model Name: Calendar Effect Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model incorporates calendar-based patterns to predict market movements[11][65] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a neutral stance for the mid-term[11][65] 9. Model Name: Long-Term Momentum Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates long-term market trends using momentum indicators[12][66] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a neutral stance across all broad-based indices for the long term[12][66] 10. Model Name: A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model integrates multiple signals to provide a comprehensive market timing prediction[13][67] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a bearish outlook for the A-share market[13][67] 11. Model Name: A-Share Comprehensive CSI 2000 Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on the CSI 2000 index, combining various timing signals[13][67] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a neutral stance for the A-share market[13][67] 12. Model Name: Turnover-to-Volatility Model (Hong Kong Market) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates market timing in the Hong Kong market by analyzing turnover relative to volatility[14][68] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a bullish outlook for the mid-term[14][68] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Volume Model - **Short-Term Signal**: Neutral[10][64] 2. Low Volatility Model - **Short-Term Signal**: Neutral[10][64] 3. Institutional Feature Model (Dragon-Tiger List) - **Short-Term Signal**: Bearish[10][64] 4. Feature Volume Model - **Short-Term Signal**: Bearish[10][64] 5. Intelligent CSI 300 Model - **Short-Term Signal**: Bullish[10][64] 6. Intelligent CSI 500 Model - **Short-Term Signal**: Bearish[10][64] 7. Limit-Up/Down Model - **Mid-Term Signal**: Bullish[11][65] 8. Calendar Effect Model - **Mid-Term Signal**: Neutral[11][65] 9. Long-Term Momentum Model - **Long-Term Signal**: Neutral across all broad-based indices[12][66] 10. A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model - **Comprehensive Signal**: Bearish[13][67] 11. A-Share Comprehensive CSI 2000 Model - **Comprehensive Signal**: Neutral[13][67] 12. Turnover-to-Volatility Model (Hong Kong Market) - **Mid-Term Signal**: Bullish[14][68]