行业研究 非银行金融 2025 年 06 月 07 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 金融资金面跟踪：量化周报（2025/06/02~2025/06/06） 推荐（维持） 成交量有所提升，基差总体有所收敛 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：刘潇伟 邮箱：liuxiaowei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525020001 上周量化私募总体正超额。上周样本量化私募收益及超额如下：1）300 增强策略周 /月/年初以来平均收益分别为-0.4%/+3%/+1.3%，周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为 +0.6%/+1%/+4.5%；2）500 增强策略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为+0.7%/+3.5%/+5.6%， 周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为+0.2%/+2.4%/+9.4%；3）A500 增强策略周/月/年初以来平 均收益分别为-0.4%/+3.1%/+8.9%，周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为+0.6%/+1.3%/+12.5%； 4）1000 增强策略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为 ...

Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly exceeding the expectation of 130,000[2] - Job growth was concentrated in three sectors: education and healthcare services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and finance (+13,000)[2] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, with a slight increase in the labor force participation rate from 62.6% to 62.4%[4] Wage Growth Insights - Hourly wage growth was 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, and year-on-year growth was 3.9%, up from a revised 3.8%[3] - The average weekly hours worked remained at 34.3 hours, indicating stable labor income growth[3] - Wage growth is crucial for protecting consumer purchasing power, especially for low- and middle-income groups, amid inflation concerns[5] Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8%[3] - The anticipated number of rate cuts for the year decreased from 2.1 to 1.8, and the year-end policy rate expectation rose from 3.795% to 3.886%[3] - Following the report, U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.05% and the Nasdaq up 1.2%, indicating a rebound in risk appetite[3]

Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly exceeding the expectation of 130,000[2] - Job growth was concentrated in three sectors: education and healthcare services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and finance (+13,000) while other sectors experienced job losses[2][25] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, with a slight increase in the labor force participation rate dropping from 62.6% to 62.4%[4][29] Wage Growth Insights - Hourly wage growth was 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, and year-over-year growth was 3.9%, up from a revised 3.8%[3][34] - The increase in wages is crucial for protecting the purchasing power of low- and middle-income consumers amid inflation concerns[5][19] Market Reactions - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8%[3][39] - Following the employment report, U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, Nasdaq up 1.2%, and S&P 500 up 1.03%[3][39] Employment Trends - The employment diffusion index fell to 50% for the month, indicating a decline in the breadth of job growth across sectors[4][24] - The total number of jobs added in the previous two months was revised down by 95,000, indicating a trend of slowing job growth[2][21]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [21]. Core Insights - The insurance index rose by 1.03%, outperforming the market by 0.15 percentage points, with notable individual stock performances such as Xinhua (+5.94%) and Taiping (+5.64%) [2]. - China Ping An plans to issue HKD 11.765 billion in convertible bonds, with an initial conversion price of HKD 55.02 per share, aimed at supporting business development and capital needs [3][4]. - As of Q1 2025, Ping An's solvency ratios were 225% for comprehensive solvency and 189% for core solvency, indicating a strong capital position [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance sector showed a mixed performance with individual stocks varying significantly, where Xinhua and Taiping led the gains while Sunshine and Zhong An faced declines [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield was 1.65%, down by 2 basis points from the previous week [2]. Company Developments - China Taiping announced a new private equity fund with a target size of RMB 50 billion, focusing on state-owned enterprise reforms [3]. - Ping An Asset Management received regulatory approval to establish a private fund management company, targeting a first-phase fund size of RMB 30 billion [3]. Financial Metrics - As of June 3, 2025, the closing price of Ping An's H shares was HKD 46.45, with the proposed convertible bond's conversion price exceeding this by HKD 18.45, reflecting confidence in future stock price growth [5]. - The new business value (NBV) for Ping An increased by 35% year-on-year, with significant growth expected from the bancassurance channel [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the short term due to performance pressures but anticipates a recovery in the medium to long term as the industry adapts to interest rate changes and improves operational quality [5]. - Current price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios for key companies are provided, with Ping An rated at 1.04 PB and a strong buy recommendation [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, particularly focusing on the potential growth in the gout medication market and ongoing drug development [11][18]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is currently undervalued, with public funds showing low allocation to this sector. The report anticipates a recovery driven by macroeconomic factors and significant product launches in the industry by 2025 [11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative drugs, particularly in the gout treatment space, highlighting the shift from quantity to quality in drug development [11][20]. - The report identifies several key companies and products to watch, including innovative drug developers and medical device manufacturers, suggesting a diversified investment approach [11][12][18]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes that the CITIC pharmaceutical index rose by 1.22%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.34 percentage points, ranking 16th among 30 sectors [8]. - The top-performing stocks in the pharmaceutical sector include Yiming Pharmaceutical and Wanbangde, while the worst performers include Longjin Retreat and Huasen Pharmaceutical [8]. Gout Treatment Market - The report highlights the significant market potential for gout medications, with a projected market size of approximately 1.821 billion yuan in 2024. The report notes that the market for febuxostat is expected to decline due to its inclusion in national procurement [20]. - The report outlines the two main therapeutic approaches for gout: inhibiting uric acid production and promoting uric acid excretion, with key drugs identified for each approach [20][21]. Innovative Drug Development - The report provides an overview of ongoing clinical trials for gout medications, particularly focusing on URAT1 inhibitors, which are currently the most promising targets in drug development [22][35]. - It highlights the progress of SHR4640, a URAT1 inhibitor developed by Hengrui Medicine, which has shown promising results in clinical trials and is expected to be the first domestic URAT1 inhibitor to be approved [26]. Medical Devices and Equipment - The report discusses the recovery of the medical device market, particularly imaging equipment, which is expected to see significant growth due to ongoing procurement processes and government subsidies [42]. - It emphasizes the importance of domestic manufacturers in the medical device sector, particularly in the context of increasing competition and the need for innovation [42][43]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong pipelines and innovative products, including those in the pharmaceutical and medical device sectors, to capitalize on the anticipated growth in the industry [11][12][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, particularly focusing on the potential growth in the gout medication market and ongoing drug development [11]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is currently undervalued, with public funds showing low allocation to this sector. The report anticipates a recovery driven by macroeconomic factors and significant product launches in the industry by 2025 [11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative drugs, particularly those that can transition from quantity to quality, highlighting the need to focus on differentiated products and international pipelines [11]. - The gout medication market is identified as a "blue ocean" with significant growth potential, driven by the high prevalence of hyperuricemia and gout in China [18][20]. Market Overview - The report notes that the overall prevalence of hyperuricemia in China is approximately 13.3%, affecting around 177 million people, while gout affects about 14.66 million individuals [17]. - The market for gout medications is projected to reach approximately 1.821 billion yuan in 2024, with significant contributions from drugs like febuxostat and probenecid [20]. Drug Development Landscape - The report outlines the current landscape of gout treatments, categorizing them into two main mechanisms: uric acid synthesis inhibitors and uric acid excretion promoters [20]. - Several innovative drugs are in various stages of clinical development, with a focus on URAT1 inhibitors, which are currently the most promising targets in gout treatment [21][22]. - The report highlights the progress of SHR4640, a URAT1 inhibitor developed by Heng Rui Medicine, which has shown promising results in clinical trials and is expected to be the first domestic URAT1 inhibitor to be approved [26]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong pipelines in innovative drug development, particularly those targeting gout and related conditions, such as BeiGene, Innovent, and others [11]. - It also recommends monitoring the progress of medical device companies that are benefiting from policy support and market recovery, particularly in imaging and home healthcare devices [42][43]. Conclusion - The report concludes that the pharmaceutical and medical device sectors present significant investment opportunities, driven by innovation, market recovery, and favorable demographic trends [11][42].

综合资金缺口看，刚性因素中，6 月一般存款增长冻结的准备金规模或在 2256 亿元附近，货币发行及非金融机构存款或小幅消耗流动性 1152 亿元左右；工 具到期方面，1.2 万亿的买断式逆回购到期，6 月已前置操作 1 万亿，关注后 续是否有"加场"操作，MLF 到期量在 1820 亿元，规模相对有限，若月末资 金压力增大，或依旧是延续超额续作的思路。财政因素中，6 月财政支出有所 加大，但或主要体现在季末，叠加政府债券发行规模不小，政府存款对于流动 性的补充或在 4000 亿元附近，略低于去年水平。合计 6 月流动性缺口在 1.4 万亿附近，考虑 1 万亿买断式逆回购已经投放，整体资金缺口压力相对有限。 跨半年央行多以呵护为主，预计资金大幅收敛的风险相对可控。6 月初 DR007 中枢较利率的偏离度在 15bp 附近，DR001 接近 1.4%水平，买断式逆回购前置 操作，整体有利于稳定资金预期。从历史情况看，以往 6 月除 2020 年处于货 币政策收紧区间，资金价格明显走高；以及 2019 年 6 月包商银行接管事件爆 发后，央行为维稳大量投放流动性，DR007 资金价格有所下行外，其余年份 DR007 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Huamao Technology (603306) [1] Core Views - The acquisition plan exceeds expectations, with Huamao Technology's major shareholder subscribing to supporting funds, demonstrating confidence in the company's performance [1] - The company plans to acquire the remaining equity of Fuchuang Youyue, increasing its ownership from 42.16% to 100% [1] - Fuchuang Youyue is expected to achieve a net profit of 0.78 billion yuan from January to April 2025 [1] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 2,213 million, 2,908 million, 3,494 million, and 4,186 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.7%, 31.4%, 20.2%, and 19.8% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 277 million, 590 million, 748 million, and 934 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 14.6%, 112.7%, 26.8%, and 24.8% [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected at 0.84, 1.79, 2.27, and 2.84 yuan for 2024A to 2027E [3] - The target price is set at 51.28 yuan, with the current price at 40.15 yuan [4] Business Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic automotive passive safety market, with significant overseas expansion plans [8] - The global airbag market exceeds 10 billion USD, and the increasing configuration rate of airbags per vehicle is expected to drive market growth [8] - The company has established a new base in Vietnam, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue starting in 2025 [8] - The company is actively investing in the AI sector, with plans to enhance its capabilities in semiconductor and computing power manufacturing [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall operation of industrial bond - issuing entities was under pressure in 2024, with differentiated industry performance. The total operating revenue and net profit of industrial bond entities decreased year - on - year, and the proportion of loss - making enterprises increased. In 2025Q1, the overall operating revenue of industrial bond entities decreased year - on - year, while the net profit remained flat. [2][3] - The economic fundamentals are expected to continue the characteristics of domestic demand support, external demand pressure, and policy escort this year. Attention should be paid to the improvement of the fundamentals of entities under the influence of pro - growth policies. [2][13] - For the real estate industry, it is still in the bottom - building stage. Attention can be paid to the income - mining opportunities of central and state - owned enterprise real estate bonds with an implied rating of AA and above within 1 - 2 years. [4] - For the coal industry, there is downward pressure on the industry's prosperity. Short - term medium - and high - grade varieties can be focused on, and institutions with higher income requirements can appropriately invest in 1 - 2y varieties of coal enterprises with an implied rating of AA. [5] - For the steel industry, the problem of over - supply is still serious. Caution should be exercised when investing in lower - quality entities, and 1 - 2yAA + varieties can be focused on. [6] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. How Did the Annual Reports and Q1 Reports of Each Industry Perform? 3.1.1. Overall Situation Analysis: The Overall Profitability Declined - In 2024, the total operating revenue and net profit of industrial bond entities decreased year - on - year, and the proportion of loss - making enterprises increased from 18% in 2023 to 21% in 2024. [13][14] - In 2025Q1, the overall operating revenue of industrial bond entities decreased by 2% year - on - year, while the net profit remained flat. [15] 3.1.2. Industry Performance: A Minority of Industries Had Positive Revenue and Net Profit Growth, and Most Industries Had Positive Growth in Operating Net Cash Flow - In 2024, about one - third of industries had positive revenue growth, and about 40% of industries had positive net profit growth. Nearly half of the industries had an increase in asset - liability ratio, and about 60% of industries had positive growth in operating net cash flow. [3] - Industries with revenue growth of over 5% in 2024 included non - ferrous metals, electronics, etc.; industries with a decline of over 5% included coal, steel, etc. [20] 3.1.3. Situations of Continuously Loss - making and Turnaround Entities - There were 79 bond - issuing industrial entities with net profit losses for 3 consecutive years or more, mainly distributed in transportation, real estate, etc. [36] - There were 20 bond - issuing industrial entities that had net profit losses for 2 consecutive years or more and turned profitable in 2024, mainly in public utilities, social services, etc. [39] 3.2. Financial Analysis of Key Industries: Real Estate, Coal, and Steel 3.2.1. Real Estate Industry: The Industry Is Still in the Bottom - building Stage, and Attention Should Be Paid to the Investment Opportunities of Central and State - owned Enterprises within 1 - 2 Years - **Fundamentals**: Pro - real - estate policies have been actively implemented, and the effect of destocking policies is gradually emerging, but the industry's prosperity is still low. [41] - **Financial Indicator Performance**: The profitability is under continuous pressure, the operating net cash flow is stable, the gaps in investment and financing net cash flows are narrowing, the median asset - liability ratio has decreased slightly, and the short - term solvency has declined. [4][50][51] - **Investment Strategy**: Attention can be paid to the income - mining opportunities of central and state - owned enterprise real estate bonds with an implied rating of AA and above within 1 - 2 years. Some 1 - year central and state - owned enterprise real estate bonds with an implied rating of AA and AA + have yields ranging from 2.2% to 2.7%. [4][61] 3.2.2. Coal Industry: There Is Downward Pressure on the Industry's Prosperity, and Attention Should Be Continuously Paid. Currently, Appropriate Investment in Lower - Grade Entities Can Be Made - **Fundamentals**: Since last year, there has been downward pressure on the coal industry's prosperity. Supply is sufficient but demand is weak, and coal prices have fluctuated downward. There may still be some downward pressure on coal prices this year. [5][63] - **Financial Indicator Performance**: The overall profitability has declined, the operating net cash flow has shrunk, the gap in investment cash flow has widened, the gap in financing cash flow has narrowed, the median asset - liability ratio has decreased, and the short - term solvency has declined. [5][68][71] - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term medium - and high - grade varieties can be focused on. Institutions with higher income requirements can appropriately invest in 1 - 2y varieties of coal enterprises with an implied rating of AA, and medium - and high - grade entities can extend the duration to 3y. [5][77] 3.2.3. Steel Industry: The Problem of Over - Supply in the Industry Is Still Serious. Caution Should Be Exercised When Investing in Lower - Quality Entities - **Fundamentals**: Since 2024, the steel industry has been in the bottom - exploring stage. Although the pro - growth policies have slightly improved the industry's prosperity, the sustainability is weak. The problem of over - supply is still serious. [6] - **Financial Indicator Performance**: The profitability has been under continuous pressure, with a marginal improvement in Q1. The operating net cash flow has shrunk, the gap in investment net cash flow has widened, the financing net cash flow has turned positive, the median asset - liability ratio has increased, and the short - term solvency has slightly declined. [6] - **Investment Strategy**: Caution should be exercised when investing in lower - quality entities. 1 - 2yAA + varieties can be focused on. [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Huamao Technology (603306) [1] Core Views - The acquisition plan exceeds expectations, with Huamao Technology's major shareholder subscribing to supporting funds, demonstrating confidence in the company's performance [1] - The company plans to acquire the remaining equity of Fuchuang Youyue, increasing its stake from 42.16% to 100%, with expected net profit of 0.78 billion yuan from Fuchuang Youyue in the first four months of 2025 [1] - The company is actively expanding its presence in the automotive passive safety market and accelerating overseas expansion, with significant revenue contributions expected from its new manufacturing base in Vietnam [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2,213 million yuan in 2024 to 4,186 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.8% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 277 million yuan in 2024 to 934 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 24.8% [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.84 yuan in 2024 to 2.84 yuan in 2027 [3] - The target price for the stock is set at 51.28 yuan, indicating a potential upside from the current price of 40.15 yuan [4] Business Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic automotive passive safety sector, with plans to leverage its overseas production capacity to capture more market share [8] - The report highlights the growing demand for AI-related infrastructure, with Huamao Technology's acquisition of Fuchuang Youyue aimed at establishing a second growth curve in the AI sector [8] - The company is expected to continue investing in semiconductor and computing manufacturing, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [8]