证券研究报告 【宏观快评】 以"量"获"利"——4月工业企业利润点评 主要观点 * 4月工业企业利润数据:利润增长加快 4月,根据统计局数据,全国规模以上工业企业利润同比增长 3.0%,较 3 月 份加快 0.4个百分点。库存方面,截至今年4月,库存同比 3.9%,前值为 4.2%。 量、价、利润率拆分来看,量强价弱。PPI 同比,4 月同比为-2.7%,3 月为 -2.5%。工业增加值4月增速为6.1%,3月为7.7%;收入端4月增速为 2.64%, 3月为4.42%。利润率方面,4月为5.38%,去年同期(可比口径)为 5.36%。 利润率拆分来看,4月毛利率为 14.0%,去年同期为 14.2%;费用率 7.85%, 去年同期为 8.08%;其他损益收入比为 0.75%,去年同期为 0.76%。 分行业来看,4月,采矿业增速为-30.77%,前值为-26.03%;制造业增速为 10.96%,前值为 11.92%;电热气水增速为 1.49%,前值为-6.13%。制造业内 发观研究 宏观快评 2025年05月27日 华创证券研究所 (一)工业整体:"量"改善带动利润改善 证券分析师:张瑜 电话:010-66 ...

4 月，根据统计局数据，全国规模以上工业企业利润同比增长 3.0%，较 3 月 份加快 0.4 个百分点。库存方面，截至今年 4 月，库存同比 3.9%，前值为 4.2%。 量、价、利润率拆分来看，量强价弱。PPI 同比，4 月同比为-2.7%，3 月为 宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 以"量"获"利"——4 月工业企业利润点评 主要观点 ❖ 4 月工业企业利润数据：利润增长加快 -2.5%。工业增加值 4 月增速为 6.1%，3 月为 7.7%；收入端 4 月增速为 2.64%， 3 月为 4.42%。利润率方面，4 月为 5.38%，去年同期（可比口径）为 5.36%。 利润率拆分来看，4 月毛利率为 14.0%，去年同期为 14.2%；费用率 7.85%， 去年同期为 8.08%；其他损益收入比为 0.75%，去年同期为 0.76%。 分行业来看，4 月，采矿业增速为-30.77%，前值为-26.03%；制造业增速为 10.96%，前值为 11.92%；电热气水增速为 1.49%，前值为-6.13%。制造业内 部，上游增速为-4.27%，中游增速为 21.23%，前值为 7.64%。下游 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The convertible bond and equity markets are currently in a high - level consolidation phase. Before the market chooses a direction, attention can be paid to low - priced, mid - cap, and TMT sectors [1][12]. - In 2025, about 9% of convertible bonds have completed the disclosure of regular rating reports, with a similar pace to 2024. A total of 10 convertible bonds have had their ratings downgraded, showing no significant change compared to previous years, and the market reaction is not obvious [1][12]. - From May to July, the performance of convertible bonds divided by rating shows little differentiation, while the performance divided by price shows significant differences. Low - priced convertible bonds may be at a good price but not a good time yet, and the suppression factors may be lifted after the rating downgrade risk is realized in mid - to late June [2][14]. - The small - cap index and trading congestion are at historical high levels, facing short - term adjustment pressure. In contrast, the mid - cap index and congestion have fallen to relatively safe low levels, and opportunities for mid - cap repair after June can be focused on [3][24]. - Since mid - March, the trading congestion of the TMT sector has dropped significantly to a low level in the past three years. In June, opportunities for sector rotation within the TMT direction can be noted, such as the short - term opportunities of Qianglian Convertible Bond [4][32]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Consolidation: Track Opportunities in Low - priced, Mid - cap, and TMT Sectors - **Regular Rating Report Disclosure**: As of May 24, 2025, about 9% of convertible bonds have completed the disclosure of regular rating reports, with a similar pace to 2024. A total of 10 convertible bonds have had their ratings downgraded, and the market reaction is not obvious [12]. - **Low - priced Bond Performance**: From May to July, the performance of convertible bonds divided by rating shows little differentiation, while the performance divided by price shows significant differences. Low - priced convertible bonds have an average decline of 5 points in 35 trading days after early May. In 2025, low - priced convertible bonds have performed better than in previous years, mainly due to the strong learning effect of 2024. The suppression factors may be lifted after the rating downgrade risk is realized in mid - to late June [2][14]. - **Mid - cap and Small - cap Analysis**: The small - cap index and trading congestion are at historical high levels, facing short - term adjustment pressure. The mid - cap index and congestion have fallen to relatively safe low levels, and opportunities for mid - cap repair after June can be focused on. From a calendar effect perspective, there is no significant difference among large, medium, and small - cap stocks from May to July [3][24]. - **TMT Sector Analysis**: Since mid - March, the trading congestion of the TMT sector has dropped significantly to a low level in the past three years. In June, opportunities for sector rotation within the TMT direction can be noted, such as the short - term opportunities of Qianglian Convertible Bond [4][32]. 3.2 Market Review: Convertible Bonds Slightly Declined Weekly, and Valuations Slightly Compressed - **Weekly Market Conditions**: Last week, major stock indices declined, and the convertible bond market slightly declined. There are 475 issued and outstanding convertible bonds, with a balance of 68.3527 billion yuan. In the equity market, most industries declined, while in the convertible bond market, most sectors rose. Among popular concepts, about half declined [37][41]. - **Valuation Performance**: The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 118.68 yuan, a 0.20% decline from the previous Friday. The convertible bond market's 100 - yuan par - value fitted conversion premium rate was 22.78%, a 0.17 - percentage - point decline from the previous Friday. The conversion premium rates of convertible bonds of various ratings and scales have increased, with the A + rating rising by 1.81 percentage points and those below 300 million yuan (including 300 million yuan) rising by 2.63 percentage points [47]. 3.3 Terms and Supply: Huaxiang and Hongchang Convertible Bonds Announced Redemption, and CSRC Approval of Convertible Bonds is Acceptable - **Terms**: As of May 23, Huaxiang and Hongchang Convertible Bonds announced redemption, with the last trading days on June 6 and June 11, 2025, respectively. No convertible bond's board of directors proposed a downward revision. Nine convertible bonds announced no downward revision, and 16 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger a downward revision [5][64]. - **Primary Market**: No new convertible bonds were listed or issued last week. There were no new board proposals, 5 new cases passed the general meeting of shareholders, 1 new case passed the CSRC review committee, and no new CSRC approvals, compared with + 0, + 5, + 1, - 1 respectively from the same period last year. As of May 23, 10 listed companies have obtained convertible bond issuance approvals, with a planned issuance scale of 1.5048 billion yuan, and 4 listed companies have passed the CSRC review committee, with a total scale of 339.3 million yuan [6][71][74].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao Group, with a target price of HKD 17.0, based on a 7x P/E ratio for 2025 [4][10][12]. Core Views - China Hongqiao is a global leader in the aluminum industry, with a strong focus on integrated operations that create a competitive advantage and a high dividend payout history [8][10]. - The company has a robust supply chain, ensuring stable costs for its electrolytic aluminum segment through ownership of bauxite and alumina resources [2][10]. - The strategic move towards high-end, low-carbon development through recycling and advanced aluminum processing is expected to enhance profitability [2][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Hongqiao operates across the entire aluminum value chain, including power generation, mining, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum processing, with significant production bases in Indonesia and various locations in China [8][16]. - The company has a stable ownership structure, with the Zhang family controlling approximately 65.53% of the equity [8][22]. Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of HKD 156.17 billion for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.7%, and a net profit of HKD 22.37 billion, reflecting a 95.2% increase [4][25]. - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum production is competitive at approximately HKD 13,232 per ton, benefiting from self-sufficient energy and raw material sources [8][10]. Production Capacity and Market Position - China Hongqiao has a total alumina production capacity of 21 million tons and an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 6.46 million tons, making it one of the largest producers globally [8][45]. - The company is actively expanding its recycling capabilities, with plans to establish a joint venture for recycling 500,000 tons of aluminum per year [2][10]. Future Growth Prospects - The company is set to benefit from the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which is expected to contribute significantly to its earnings starting in 2026 [9][10]. - Projections indicate that net profits will reach HKD 20.77 billion, HKD 22.38 billion, and HKD 23.45 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10][12].

证 券 研 究 报 告 保险行业深度研究报告 谁在战胜基准？——基于保险十年深度转型 推荐（维持） 复盘 ❑ 回顾保险板块过去十年，根据行情驱动因素划分阶段： 2015-2016 年：保险板块先升后降，随之低位调整，主要影响因素或在于股市 波动。 2017 年：保险板块显著跑赢大盘，主要驱动或在于 134 号文推动行业价值转 型。 2018-2019 年：保险板块先跌后涨，与大盘走势趋同，投资弹性+减税政策红利 驱动下 2019 年涨幅跑赢大盘。 2020-2022 年：保险板块先涨后跌，主要影响因素或在于疫情扰动及复苏预期、 地产违约事件及代理人改革清虚。 2023 年至今：保险板块多数时期跑赢大盘，影响因素多元化交叉集合体现， 如代理人改革兑现、监管推动压降负债成本、红利结构性行情、新准则下放大 行业贝塔效应。 ❑ 风险提示：监管变动、长端利率加速下行、权益市场震荡、转型不及预期 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 17.0 HKD based on a 7x P/E ratio for 2025 [4][10][12]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in the aluminum industry, with a comprehensive integrated business model that includes power generation, mining, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum processing, establishing a strong profit moat [8][10]. - The company has a high dividend payout history, with a cumulative cash dividend of 524.9 billion CNY since its listing in 2011, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [8][40]. - The company is strategically positioned with a robust supply chain, including self-sufficient alumina production and a high self-supply rate of electricity, which contributes to a competitive cost structure [8][10][60]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established itself as a leading aluminum producer with a total alumina capacity of 21 million tons and an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 646,000 tons as of 2024 [8][45]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the Zhang family controlling 65.53% of the equity, ensuring long-term strategic planning [22][24]. Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of 156.17 billion CNY for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.7%, and a net profit of 22.37 billion CNY, reflecting a significant increase of 95.2% [4][25]. - The company’s operating income has grown from 84.18 billion CNY in 2019 to 133.62 billion CNY in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 12% [25][27]. Production and Cost Structure - The company has a self-sufficient alumina production rate exceeding 160%, which stabilizes the cost of aluminum production [2][8]. - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum production in 2024 is projected to be 13,232 CNY per ton, which is among the lowest in the industry [8][10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its footprint in the aluminum recycling and processing sectors, with plans to establish a joint venture for recycling 50,000 tons of aluminum per year [2][10]. - The company is also involved in the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which is expected to enhance its earnings starting in 2026 [9][10]. Market Position - The company maintains a leading position in the electrolytic aluminum market, with a production capacity utilization rate close to 100% as of 2024 [46][49]. - The company’s electrolytic aluminum sales volume is expected to reach 583.7 million tons in 2025, reflecting a stable growth trajectory [11][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [4][8]. Core Insights - The company, Yuncong Technology, reported a significant decline in revenue for 2024, with total revenue of 398 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.69%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -696 million yuan, indicating a loss that has widened compared to the previous year [2][8]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company continued to face revenue challenges, achieving 37 million yuan in revenue, down 31.56% year-on-year, but the net loss narrowed to -124 million yuan [2][8]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its large model capabilities and industry adaptability, with ongoing development in language, vision, and multimodal model systems [8]. - A partnership with Huawei is being leveraged to advance deployment in government and financial sectors, enhancing local commercial capabilities [8]. - The company is also collaborating with the National Cybersecurity Base's Intelligent Computing Center to strengthen its foundational infrastructure for large models [8]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the total revenue is projected to be 398 million yuan, with a forecasted growth of 12.6% in 2025, reaching 448 million yuan, and further growth expected in subsequent years [4][8]. - The net profit is expected to improve gradually, with projections of -484 million yuan in 2025 and -358 million yuan in 2026 [4][8]. - The company's gross margin is anticipated to increase from 35.8% in 2024 to 39.8% by 2027, indicating a potential improvement in profitability [4][8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 公募基金观察（20250519-20250523） 推荐（维持） 新浮动费率产品发行在即 ❑ 本周行情复盘：本周主要指数小幅下跌，沪深 300：-0.18%，中证 A500：-0.29%， 科创 50：-1.47%，中证 500：-1.10%，上证 50：-0.18%，创业板指：-0.88%， 中证 1000：-1.29%，中证 A50：+0.18%。本周基金收益率：股票指数型基金： -0.42%，跑赢上证指数 0.15pct，跑输普通股票型基金 0.55pct；债券型指数基 金：+0.05%，跑赢上证指数 0.62pct。 ❑ 本周动态： （1）新华社：5 月 24 日，易方达、华夏、南方、富国、广发、嘉实、汇添富 基金等 16 家基金公司集体公告，旗下浮动费率基金产品发行定档，均将于 5 月 27 日开启发行，多数产品将于 6 月中下旬结束认购。此前，首批共 26 只新 型浮动费率基金已获证监会注册，在一周左右时间内完成了申报流程。 行业研究 （2）证券时报：近期，易方达中债新综合债券指数基金、易方达投资级信用 债债券基金、华夏中证沪深港黄金产业股票 ETF、华夏中证红利低波动 E ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [4][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 398 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 36.69%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -696 million yuan [2][8]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 37 million yuan, down 31.56% year-on-year, but the net loss narrowed to -124 million yuan compared to the same period last year [2][8]. - The company is enhancing its large model capabilities and industry adaptability, with a focus on deploying AI applications across various sectors [8]. - A partnership with Huawei is being leveraged to strengthen local commercial capabilities in government and financial sectors [8]. - The company is collaborating with the National Cybersecurity Base's Intelligent Computing Center to build a robust infrastructure for its large models [8]. Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is projected to be 448 million yuan, 560 million yuan, and 727 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 12.6%, 25.0%, and 29.9% respectively [4][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to improve from -484 million yuan in 2025 to -284 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 30.5%, 26.0%, and 20.7% [4][8]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -0.47 yuan in 2025 to -0.27 yuan in 2027 [4][8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 保险行业周报（20250518-20250523） 25Q1 险资规模稳健增长，债券、股票环比均 推荐（维持） 增配 ❑ 本周行情复盘：保险指数下跌 0.43%，跑输大盘 0.26pct。保险个股表现分化， 太平+1.01%，众安+0.48%，人保+0.37%，太保+0.24%，财险-0.27%，平安-0.3%， 友邦-1.74%，国寿-2.09%，阳光-2.1%，新华-2.18%。10 年期国债收益率 1.72%， 较上周末+4bps。 ❑ 本周动态： （1）金监总局：①5 月 23 日，发布《银行保险机构资产管理产品信息披露管 理办法(征求意见稿)》，按照资产管理产品生命周期，对募集、存续、终止各环 节进行全面规范，旨在引导行业将信息披露融入业务全过程。②5 月 22 日， 国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，金融监管总局表示，最近将批复第三批保 险资金长期投资改革试点，规模 600 亿。③5 月 16 日，公布 2025Q1 保险公司 资金运用情况。 ❑ 投资建议：从短期看，保险板块 2025 年业绩基数压力相对较大。但从中长期 看，当前保险板块主要受制于长端利率下行带来的"利差损" ...