Report Information - Report Title: [Bond Weekly Report] Certificate of Deposit Weekly Report (1020 - 1026): More Disturbances at the Month - End, CDs May Continue to Fluctuate at a Relatively High Level [1] - Report Date: October 26, 2025 - Research Institution: Huachuang Securities Research Institute - Analysts: Zhou Guannan, Song Qi Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Tax payments and new - share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange may increase capital disturbances. As the transition period of the "interest rate adjustment safeguard clause" approaches the end of November and the maturity scale of CDs is relatively large, CD issuance may still be in demand and remain in a high - level oscillation state in the short term. From a pricing perspective, CDs may continue to fluctuate at a relatively high level, with the weighted issuance rate of 1 - year national and joint - stock bank CDs fluctuating around 1.65 - 1.7%, and the price increase pressure above 1.7% being controllable, allowing for opportunistic layout [2][50] Summary by Directory Supply: Net Financing Increases, and the Term Structure Lengthens - This week (October 20 - 26), the CD issuance scale was 96.324 billion yuan, and the net financing was 34.535 billion yuan (compared to 22.27 billion yuan from October 13 - 19). In terms of supply structure, the issuance proportion of state - owned banks increased from 14% to 19%, and that of joint - stock banks increased from 36% to 43%. In terms of terms, the issuance proportion of 1 - year CDs increased from 19% to 28%, and the weighted issuance term of CDs rose to 7.08 months (previously 6.07 months). Next week (October 27 - November 2), the maturity scale will increase to 56.431 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 5.28 billion yuan [2][5] Demand: Wealth Management and Other Product Categories Are the Main Secondary - Market Allocation Forces, and the Primary - Market Subscription Rate Rises - In the secondary - market allocation, wealth management and other product categories are the main forces, with weekly net purchases of 52.116 billion yuan and 58.277 billion yuan respectively. The net sales of city commercial banks decreased from 102.508 billion yuan to 91.151 billion yuan. In the primary - market issuance, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) rose to around 87%. By institution, the subscription rate of city commercial banks increased from 84% to 85%, that of joint - stock banks increased from 83% to 86%, and that of state - owned banks decreased from 85% to 84% [2][15] Valuation: CDs See a Slight Price Increase in the Primary Market and Slight Yield Fluctuations in the Secondary Market - In the primary - market pricing, the weighted issuance rate of 1 - year national and joint - stock bank CDs is around 1.68%. Specifically, the 1 - month variety decreased by 1bp compared to last week, the 6 - month and 9 - month varieties remained unchanged, the 1 - year variety increased by 1bp, and the 3 - month variety increased by 2bp. In terms of term spreads, the 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks decreased by 1bp, at the 18% historical quantile. In terms of credit spreads, the spread between 1 - year city commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened from 7.76BP to 10.35BP, at around the 14% quantile, and the spread between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed from 8.27BP to 6.31BP, close to the 9% quantile. In the secondary - market yields, the yields of AAA - rated CDs fluctuated slightly. The 1 - month variety decreased by 1bp compared to last week, the 3 - month, 6 - month, and 9 - month varieties remained unchanged, and the 1 - year variety increased by 1bp, reaching the 8% historical quantile since 2019. The 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA - rated CDs rose to the 20% historical quantile [2][21][31] Comparison: The Spread between Medium - and Short - Term Notes and CDs Continues to Narrow - In terms of asset comparison, the spread between medium - and short - term notes and CDs continued to narrow. Specifically, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated CD yield and the 15DMA of DR007 widened from 18.44BP to 23.33BP; the spread with the 15DMA of R007 widened from 9.99BP to 16.68BP; the 1 - year Treasury yield increased by 2.82bp, and the spread between CDs and Treasuries narrowed from 22.29BP to 20.34BP, with the quantile dropping to around 2%; the spread between CDs and China Development Bank bonds narrowed from 4.13BP to 3.30BP, with the quantile dropping to 0%; in addition, the spread between AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes and CDs narrowed from 5.91BP to 3.02BP, with the quantile dropping to 9% [2][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the banking sector, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [24]. Core Insights - The banking sector is transitioning from a "deposit-loan intermediary" to a key executor of national strategies and resource allocation hubs, focusing on five major areas: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance [2]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of financial system security, urging banks to balance profit-making with risk management while enhancing operational efficiency and service quality [3]. - The report highlights the need for banks to adapt to a more complex international competitive environment while prioritizing financial security and risk management in cross-border capital flows [3]. - The overall market performance shows a 1.40% weekly increase in the banking index, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.84 percentage points [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The banking sector's total market capitalization is approximately 1.15 trillion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 790 billion yuan [4]. - The report notes a 3.24% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index and a 2.88% increase in the Shanghai A-share market during the week [7]. Performance Metrics - The banking sector's absolute performance over the last month is 5.0%, with a relative performance of 2.8% compared to the benchmark [5]. - The report indicates a significant increase in the banking index over the past 12 months, with a relative performance of 24.4% [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on state-owned banks and stable joint-stock banks, highlighting the ongoing dividend plans and valuation improvement initiatives [8]. - Specific banks recommended for investment include China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, and Jiangsu Bank, among others, due to their solid fundamentals and growth potential [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the traditional automotive sector, focusing on potential recovery in stock prices due to various catalysts [1]. Core Insights - The market has largely priced in expectations for a decline in automotive policies next year, yet stock prices in the traditional automotive sector remain under pressure, with potential catalysts including better-than-expected retail sales post-Chinese New Year, improved export performance, and favorable policies [1][5]. - The report anticipates strong financial performance in Q3 for the automotive sector, driven by good wholesale growth and the effects of reduced competition, but investment opportunities in Q4 are expected to concentrate on high-risk sub-sectors [1][5]. Data Tracking - In early October, the discount rate slightly decreased to 9.5%, down 0.1 percentage points month-on-month, but up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The average discount amount was 21,384 yuan, a decrease of 108 yuan month-on-month, but an increase of 2,937 yuan year-on-year [3]. Market Performance - The automotive sector saw a weekly increase of 2.95%, ranking 9th out of 29 sectors [8]. - The overall market indices also showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.88% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 8.05% [8][33]. Industry News - As of the end of September, China's electric vehicle charging infrastructure reached 18.063 million units, a year-on-year increase of 54.5% [31]. - The "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0" was released, setting ambitious targets for carbon emissions reduction in the automotive industry by 2040 [31]. - In September, the retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 632,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5% [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Dongpeng Beverage (605499) with a target price raised to 340 CNY, indicating an expected performance exceeding the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][8][22]. Core Insights - Dongpeng Beverage reported a revenue of 16.844 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.13%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.761 billion CNY, up 38.91% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is accelerating its platformization strategy, which is expected to drive future growth. The report highlights strong performance in various product categories, particularly energy and electrolyte drinks, with significant revenue growth [2][8]. - The financial metrics indicate a robust growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 21.033 billion CNY in 2025, a 32.8% increase from 2024, and net profits expected to reach 4.576 billion CNY, reflecting a 37.6% growth [4][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, Dongpeng Beverage achieved a revenue of 6.107 billion CNY, a 30.36% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.386 billion CNY, up 41.91% year-on-year [2][9]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 45.2%, with a net profit margin of 22.7%, indicating improved profitability despite some pressure on gross margins from new product launches [8][9]. - The company has maintained a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 63.24% and a total market capitalization of approximately 156.384 billion CNY [5][8]. Growth Drivers - The report emphasizes the company's ongoing expansion in distribution channels, with a current network of 4.2 million outlets, indicating significant room for growth compared to the potential market of over 6 million outlets [8][9]. - New product launches, including various beverage categories, are expected to contribute to revenue growth, with the company targeting over 3 billion CNY in sales from its hydration products and nearly 700 million CNY from its fruit tea line [8][9]. - The strategic organizational restructuring planned for the next fiscal year aims to enhance operational efficiency and drive further growth [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Chongqing Bank, with a target price of 13.17 CNY / 9.90 HKD [2][4]. Core Insights - Chongqing Bank reported a revenue of 11.74 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.879 billion CNY, up 10.19% year-on-year. The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased by 4 basis points to 1.13%, while the provision coverage ratio remained stable at 248% [2][4]. - The bank's net interest income exceeded expectations, with a quarterly revenue of 4.081 billion CNY in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.38% [7]. - The asset quality improved, with the NPL ratio declining and the net profit growth outpacing revenue growth due to improved revenue streams [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Growth**: The bank's revenue growth is supported by strong demand for corporate loans in the Sichuan-Chongqing region, with a significant increase in net interest income [7]. - **Loan Performance**: Corporate loans saw a substantial increase, with new corporate loans amounting to 21.38 billion CNY in Q3 2025, while retail loan demand weakened [7]. - **Net Interest Margin**: The net interest margin stabilized and increased by 17 basis points to 1.40% in Q3 2025, driven by stable asset pricing and reduced funding costs [7]. - **Asset Quality**: The NPL ratio improved, with a decrease in the net generation rate of non-performing loans, indicating a reduction in credit risk [7]. Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected total revenue for 2025 is 14.758 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.9% [8]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 5.555 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting an 8.6% increase [8]. - **Key Ratios**: The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is 6.36, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to be 0.63 [8].

- The short-term trading volume model is neutral for A-shares[2][12] - The low volatility model is neutral for A-shares[2][12] - The characteristic institutional model is bearish for A-shares[2][12] - The characteristic trading volume model is bearish for A-shares[2][12] - The intelligent algorithm model for the CSI 300 is bearish for A-shares[2][12] - The intelligent algorithm model for the CSI 500 is bearish for A-shares[2][12] - The mid-term limit-up and limit-down model is neutral for A-shares[2][13] - The mid-term calendar effect model is neutral for A-shares[2][13] - The long-term momentum model is bullish for A-shares[2][14] - The comprehensive A-share model V3 is bearish[2][15] - The comprehensive A-share model for the CSI 2000 is bearish[2][15] - The mid-term trading volume to volatility model is bearish for Hong Kong stocks[2][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the transportation and public utilities industry, indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [19]. Core Insights - The report highlights the clear direction of the "14th Five-Year Plan" focusing on emerging pillar industries, particularly low-altitude economy and nuclear fusion energy, which are expected to create trillion-level markets [5]. - The emphasis on low-altitude economy development is reiterated through various government reports and initiatives, showcasing its strategic importance [5]. - The report identifies two major highlights: the cluster development of low-altitude economy and the potential for a trillion-level market, which is seen as a strong encouragement for industry participants [5]. - The report outlines four key application scenarios for low-altitude economy over the next 3-5 years, including tourism, passenger transport, logistics, and production operations [5]. - The report also discusses the expected acceleration in capital expenditure for nuclear fusion projects, predicting a peak in project tenders over the next 3-5 years with an estimated investment of 146 billion yuan [5]. Industry Overview - The transportation and public utilities industry consists of 121 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 3368.47 billion yuan [2]. - The industry has shown absolute performance of 1.8% over the past month and 7.5% over the past six months, while relative performance has been -0.3% and -15.7% respectively [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of low-altitude digitalization and infrastructure construction as foundational elements for the healthy development of the low-altitude economy [5]. Key Companies and Valuation - The report provides a detailed analysis of 12 key companies across five segments of the low-altitude economy, including manufacturers, supply chain, digitalization, infrastructure, and operations [8]. - Notable companies mentioned include WanFeng AoWei, Xirui, and YiHang Intelligent, with projected significant changes in their market valuations and profit margins over the next few years [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [6][21]. Core Insights - The company achieved a year-on-year revenue growth of 38% in Q3, with a focus on the low-altitude economy industry planning outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][6]. - The report highlights the company's dual strategy of general aviation and eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) as a key driver for future growth [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 11.416 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 729 million yuan, up 29.4% year-on-year [6][8]. - In Q3 2025, the company generated revenue of 3.922 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.93% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 38.1% to 229 million yuan [6][8]. - The company’s revenue from the automotive metal parts lightweight business was 9.385 billion yuan, showing a marginal increase of 0.02% year-on-year, while the general aviation aircraft manufacturing business generated 2.031 billion yuan, up 2.20% year-on-year [6][8]. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the significant potential of the low-altitude economy, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" indicating a clear direction for the development of strategic emerging industries, potentially creating a market worth trillions [6][8]. - The acquisition of Volocopter is seen as a strategic move to enhance the company's eVTOL product matrix and accelerate commercialization, with expectations for organic synergy between Diamond Aircraft and Volocopter [6][8]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2025 to be approximately 1.07 billion yuan, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 0.50 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34 times [6][11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the fourth week of October, the operating rate remained stable, and investment products showed mixed performance. Food prices increased, mainly driven by rising vegetable prices, while pork prices continued to decline. Export freight rates continued to rise, with North American routes showing continuous monthly growth. Port freight volume increased month-on-month and maintained high year-on-year growth since October. The industrial operating rate remained stable, and the Nanhua Industrial Products Index increased month-on-month. In terms of investment, the inventory reduction of rebar accelerated, indicating the impact of the "two 500 billion" tools on physical work volume. In the real estate market, the transactions of new and second-hand houses decreased slightly month-on-month after rising the previous week, but the year-on-year negative growth narrowed, with second-hand houses showing better resilience [4][29]. - For the bond market, a large amount of macro news will be released next week. The impact on bond yields is expected to be controllable, but attention should be paid to the disturbance of the stock-bond seesaw effect on bond market sentiment. Externally, China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24th to 27th. Domestically, the demand for investment products improved marginally in October, and the influence of new tools on fixed asset investment data is expected to be reflected from October to November. Next week, attention should be paid to the results of the China-US negotiations, the release of the "15th Five-Year Plan" suggestions, and the APEC meeting [4][30]. Summary by Directory Inflation-related: Vegetable Price Increase Widened - Food prices increased, with the average wholesale price of pork in China decreasing by 3.0% week-on-week. The increase in vegetable prices continued to widen, boosting the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index and the Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index by 1.4% and 1.7% week-on-week respectively [8]. Import and Export-related: Export Freight Rates Accelerated - The month-on-month increase in export container shipping prices widened. The CCFI index increased by 2.0% week-on-week, and the SCFI increased by 7.1%. The market sentiment of the China Export Container Transport Market continued to rebound, with stable transport demand and rising freight rates on most routes. In the North American market, the supply-demand fundamentals were stable, and market freight rates continued to rise [9]. - In terms of port freight volume, from October 13th to 19th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports increased by 3.6% and 2.5% week-on-week respectively, with year-on-year increases of 9.1% and 1.0% respectively. Since October, the monthly average year-on-year increases have been 8.8% and 2.5%, indicating strong export volume [9]. - The increase in the BDI index narrowed, and the CDFI index decreased. The international dry bulk shipping market was generally stable, with slight increases in freight rates for various ship types [9]. Industry-related: Rebar Inventory Reduction Accelerated - The increase in coal prices continued to widen. Due to the decrease in temperature in the South, the daily consumption of power plants decreased, and procurement willingness declined. However, due to stricter safety inspections in coal-producing areas, supply was limited, and prices continued to rise [12]. - The decline in rebar prices slowed down, with the spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) decreasing by 0.01% week-on-week. The inventory of rebar decreased by 4.2% week-on-week, with continuous inventory reduction for four weeks and an expanding reduction range, indicating the acceleration of physical work volume [2][12]. - Copper prices turned from decline to increase, with the average prices of Yangtze River Nonferrous Copper and LME Copper increasing by 0.45% and 1.0% week-on-week respectively. The slowdown of US inflation data strengthened the expectation of two interest rate cuts this year, and the convening of important domestic meetings boosted macro sentiment, supporting the pricing of risk assets [2][15]. - The glass futures continued to decline. The spot market was weak, with increasing inventory in many places. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream buyers was low, and manufacturers actively reduced prices to maintain sales. There was no positive news in the supply-demand fundamentals, and the weakness of the spot market was difficult to change in the short term [15]. Investment-related: Decline in Cement Prices Narrowed - Cement prices mostly decreased, with intensified regional differentiation. The weekly average of the cement price index decreased by 0.3% week-on-week, compared with a 2.0% decrease the previous week. Demand was weak in North China, Northeast China, and East China, and the implementation of price increases was poor. In Central South China, demand was limited due to capital and project completion [17]. - New house sales decreased marginally. From October 17th to 23rd, the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities was 203.8 million square meters, a 4.8% decrease week-on-week and a 20% decrease year-on-year, with a slight narrowing compared to the previous week [3][20]. - Second-hand house sales continued to decline year-on-year. From last Friday to this Thursday, second-hand house sales decreased by 1.4% week-on-week and 11.7% year-on-year, with a slower decline rate than in previous years, indicating better resilience [3][20]. Consumption: Passenger Car Retail Sales Remained Negative in Mid-October - Passenger car retail sales remained negative. From October 1st to 19th, passenger car retail sales decreased by 6% year-on-year and increased by 7% month-on-month. The weak start of the car market in October was affected by the increase in holidays and the overdraft of demand after the quarterly sprint in September [21]. - Crude oil prices stopped falling and rebounded. As of October 24th, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices increased by 7.6% and 6.9% respectively compared to last Friday. The postponement of the US-Russia meeting, US sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the upcoming China-US negotiations boosted crude oil prices [21].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral investment rating to STMicroelectronics (STM) based on its performance and future guidance [5]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, STM reported revenue of $3.19 billion, exceeding the midpoint of its guidance by $17 million, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 15.2% but a year-over-year decrease of 2.0% [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 33.2%, slightly below the guidance midpoint, primarily impacted by the automotive and industrial product mix [2][3]. - The company has lowered its capital expenditure plan for 2025 to slightly below $2 billion, down from a previous expectation of $2 billion to $2.3 billion [3][20]. Revenue Performance - Q3 2025 revenue breakdown shows growth in personal electronics, while automotive revenue declined by approximately 17% year-over-year but increased by 10% quarter-over-quarter [2][20]. - The industrial segment saw an 8% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 13% year-over-year increase, marking its first year-over-year growth since Q3 2023 [17][20]. - Personal electronics revenue exceeded expectations with a 40% quarter-over-quarter increase [20]. Inventory and Capital Expenditure - As of the end of Q3 2025, inventory stood at $3.17 billion, down by $100 million from the previous quarter, with inventory turnover days decreasing from 166 days in Q2 to 135 days in Q3 [3][20]. - The company anticipates a low single-digit quarter-over-quarter revenue growth in Q4 2025 due to continued inventory reduction [17][20]. Q4 2025 Guidance - The revenue guidance for Q4 2025 is set at $3.28 billion, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.9% and a year-over-year decrease of 1.23% [3][19]. - The gross margin guidance for Q4 2025 is projected at 35%, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.77 percentage points [3][19]. Strategic Focus Areas - STM is focusing on key strategic areas including industrial, automotive, personal electronics, and communication devices, with ongoing efforts in electric vehicle applications and AI data centers [17][20]. - The company is actively working on enhancing its MEMS and optical sensor solutions, collaborating with partners like NVIDIA to develop advanced architectures for AI data centers [20].