华福证券 策略点评 2025 年 11 月 29 日 巡视利剑护航"十五五" 事件： 中共中央政治局 11 月 28 日召开会议，审议《关于二十届中央巡视省（自治区、 直辖市）情况的综合报告》。 主要政策解读： （1）彰显巡视利剑作用。从巡视全覆盖的成果来看，中央对省级单位的监督 已形成常态化机制。会议既肯定了各省区市工作的新进展，也直言不讳指出 存在问题，必须从政治上高度重视，这种"以巡促察、以改提质、以治固 本"的系统化治理逻辑，不仅使巡视成为全面从严治党的利剑，更成为十五 五规划精准施策的前置研判机制。 （2）强调动真碰硬整改。"动真碰硬"传递出整改工作绝不能走过场、搞形 式的强烈信号。会议将巡视整改与学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神、谋划 "十五五"规划相结合，将其定位为全面从严治党、净化政治生态、加强领 导班子建设的重要抓手，极大地提升了巡视整改的定位和意义，表明中央正 通过巡视利器，推动政治监督具体化、精准化、常态化，为高质量发展清障 护航，十五五规划的高质量编制，正以巡视整改的实效为底色。 （3）靶向施策强整改。会议重申树立正确政绩观、完善干部考核机制，正是 要破解部分地区在经济发展中可能存在的短 ...

Group 1: Economic Focus and Policy Direction - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the importance of unifying thoughts and focusing on policy priorities to promote high-quality development and strengthen technology innovation leadership in the market[2] - The fifth and sixth rounds of inspections will primarily focus on local government work, addressing common issues identified in previous inspections, such as implementing central decisions and enhancing talent and organizational development[12] - The integration of inspection rectification with economic work is crucial for ensuring effective implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and promoting high-quality development[13] Group 2: Local Development Strategies - Local governments are encouraged to adopt tailored development strategies rather than a one-size-fits-all approach, aligning with the central government's strategic positioning for each region[17] - Emphasis on developing characteristic and leading industries based on local resources is expected to be a core principle for the "14th Five-Year Plan" development[17] - The need for local governments to enhance their understanding of technological innovation and improve political awareness is highlighted as essential for optimizing industrial structures and achieving breakthroughs in high-tech research[17] Group 3: Risk Management and Economic Growth - The meeting underscored the importance of risk prevention and the need to enhance the social governance system to mitigate various risks, particularly in the real estate sector[18] - There is a shift towards a new development model in the real estate market, with plans to accelerate the use of special bond funds for acquiring existing properties and addressing idle land issues[18] - The focus on maintaining systemic financial risk prevention and improving financial regulatory effectiveness remains a top priority[18] Group 4: Encouraging Local Leadership - The meeting called for a correct personnel orientation to motivate local officials to take responsibility and actively engage in economic work, especially in major economic provinces[22] - Fujian, as one of the top ten economic provinces, is expected to leverage the meeting's guidance to unlock greater economic growth potential and technological innovation[22]

- The report discusses the macroeconomic recovery in China, highlighting the transition from "weak recovery" to "marginal improvement" as a key phase for economic activity and liquidity structure, which lays the foundation for subsequent profitability recovery and market style shifts towards dividends and low valuation assets [11][16][17] - A macro scoring model is referenced, indicating that the macroeconomic environment has been in a neutral to slightly pessimistic range in 2025, with the latest score (September 2025) being 7, reflecting a neutral to slightly optimistic outlook [13][14] - Dividend strategies (high dividend yield strategies) are emphasized as a classic value investment method, with their core logic analyzed from three dimensions: investor behavior, corporate operating characteristics, and market valuation systems. The dividend yield is identified as the core metric for evaluating dividend strategies [21][23] - The report highlights the strategic allocation value of dividend assets, emphasizing their long-term stable return characteristics and risk diversification functions, making them suitable as a "ballast" in investment portfolios, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [21][23][25] - The report introduces the "stability value + growth premium" logic for the power and power grid sectors, emphasizing their stable cash flow, regulatory framework ("permitted cost + reasonable return"), and policy support for energy transition and power security [26] - The report provides valuation metrics for high dividend yield-related ETF products tracking indices as of October 20, 2025. For example, the PE ratios for the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index, Smart High Dividend Index, CSI Dividend Index, and CSI All Power Index are 8.88, 8.73, 8.29, and 17.60, respectively, with corresponding PB ratios of 0.85, 1.11, 0.80, and 1.76 [27][30] - The cyclical sector investment direction is analyzed, with key drivers identified as domestic demand policies and global demand recovery. Non-bank financials and consumer sectors benefit from dual drivers, while financial real estate and infrastructure are supported by domestic policies, and materials benefit from global restocking [40][42][47] - Valuation metrics for cyclical-related ETF products tracking indices are provided as of October 20, 2025. For example, the PE ratios for the Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank, Financial Real Estate, 800 Consumer, All Materials, and Infrastructure Engineering indices are 9.44, 9.10, 19.20, 26.90, and 8.51, respectively, with corresponding PB ratios of 1.13, 0.86, 4.36, 2.10, and 0.72 [51][55] - The report emphasizes the role of broad-based assets like the SSE 50 ETF and CSI 300 ETF as core holdings in portfolios, supported by policy efforts to stabilize the market and attract long-term funds, as well as their low historical valuations and high safety margins [64][65][66] - Valuation metrics for broad-based ETF products tracking indices are provided as of October 20, 2025. For example, the PE ratios for the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices are 11.99 and 14.22, respectively, with corresponding PB ratios of 1.30 and 1.48. Both indices are near the 68th percentile of their five-year PB range [69][70][71]

策 略 定 期 报 告 2、根据科睿唯安《风起云涌：中国生物医药创新 2.0 时代》报告， 中国生物医药产业已进入以源头创新和全球竞争力为核心的 2.0 阶段。 2024 年中国跃居全球第二大新药首发市场，66%全球新活性化合物已 在中国上市，凸显深度全球接轨。截至 8 月份，2025 年对外许可交易 额达 500 亿美元，热点从 ADC 转向双抗/小分子等方向，创新价值获 国际认可。政策端形成从30天临床快审到商保目录的端到端支持体系。 企业层面，在研管线、专利及临床试验数量均实现同比超 100%增长， 展现强劲创新动能。面对新周期，产业正通过聚焦管线结构、强化数 据整合与先进技术应用，推动研发效率提升与成本优化，持续塑造"中 国智造"全球影响力。 团队成员 华福证券 2025 年 11 月 25 日 策 略 研 究 中国生物医药创新 2.0：全球竞合、技术驱动与战 略重塑（2025.11.17—2025.11.21） 投资要点： 近期观点 1、医药指数本周关注的 6 个子行业均为负收益，表现不佳。 技术研发不及预期；宏观需求变化；地缘政治影响 证 券 研 究 报 告 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates a general market pressure with the A-share market declining by 5.13% during the week of November 17-21, with all 31 Shenwan industries experiencing a drop, particularly in advanced manufacturing and basic chemicals [2][10][12] - The stock-bond yield spread has increased to 0.8%, which is below the +1 standard deviation, indicating a decrease in valuation differentiation [3][22] - Market sentiment has adjusted, with an increase in industry rotation intensity, particularly favoring large-cap stocks over micro-cap stocks [3][23] Group 2 - The report highlights significant industry movements, including the launch of the multimodal AI assistant "Lingguang," which achieved over one million downloads within four days, indicating strong market interest in AI applications [4][49] - The proposed merger of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities is expected to reshape the brokerage industry landscape, suggesting potential investment opportunities [4][50] - The 2025 Quantum Technology and Industry Conference showcased major advancements in quantum technology, emphasizing the sector's growth potential and investment opportunities [4][51] Group 3 - The report suggests a phase of rebalancing in market styles, with a focus on sectors that have previously lagged, such as dividends and domestic demand, which may offer better value in the short term [5][53] - Long-term prospects remain positive for technology growth sectors, including TMT, energy storage, satellite connectivity, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5][53]

行业热点：全模态通用 AI 助手"灵光"发布，中金拟吸收合并东兴、 信达。（1）全模态通用 AI 助手"灵光"发布，上线 4 天突破百万下载。 （2）中金拟吸收合并东兴、信达，券业格局再迎改变。（3）2025 量子科 技和产业大会在合肥举行，量子领域多项重大成果集中发布。 行业配置：阶段性再平衡 策 略 研 究 华福证券 策略定期研究 2025 年 11 月 24 日 如何看待全球风险偏好的降温？ 投资要点： 本周（11/17-11/21）市场普遍承压，全 A 收跌-5.13%。从指数情况看， 上证 50、中证红利跌幅较窄，创业板指、微盘股受挫严重。从风格情况看， 金融地产跌幅较窄，先进制造领跌。本周 31 个申万行业全部收跌，银行、 传媒、食品饮料跌幅较窄，基础化工、综合、电力设备领跌。 策 略 定 期 报 告 市场观察：股债收益差上升，行业轮动强度上升。（1）市场估值：股 债收益差上升至 0.8%，小于+1 标准差。估值分化系数有所下降。（2）市 场情绪：市场情绪调整，行业轮动强度上升。市场大盘风格占优，微盘股 指数跑输市场，主题热度主要聚集在水产、拼多多合作商、中船系。（3） 市场结构：市场量能环比下降 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the defense and military industry [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the anticipation of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the significant growth expected in both domestic and international demand for the military industry, driven by multiple catalysts such as the centenary of the military and rapid development in military trade [4][44]. - The military industry is expected to see a strong recovery in demand by 2026, with a current TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 67.34, indicating a high allocation significance at this time [4][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The military index (801740) decreased by 1.72% from November 17 to November 21, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 3.77% [10][15]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the military index has risen by 11.39%, while the CSI 300 index has increased by 13.18%, resulting in a relative underperformance of -1.79% [17]. 2. Core Weekly Insights - The report highlights the recent naval exercises involving the Fujian aircraft carrier and various aircraft, showcasing advancements in military capabilities [3][43]. - The Dubai Airshow featured high-end aviation equipment from the Aviation Industry Corporation of China, indicating efforts to expand international markets [3][43]. 3. Important News and Announcements - The report notes significant developments in the aerospace sector, including successful satellite launches and advancements in fusion energy technology [50][51]. - It also mentions initiatives to promote low-altitude economic applications and the establishment of modern state-owned forest farms [52][53]. 4. Funding and Valuation - Passive fund inflows into the military sector have continued, with a net inflow of 3.88 billion yuan over the week, despite a slight decrease in fund size [29][44]. - The report indicates that the military sector's valuation remains attractive, with a projected recovery in demand expected to enhance performance in the coming years [4][44].

Group 1 - The report indicates that US stocks are under pressure, showing a volatile adjustment trend influenced by Federal Reserve policy expectations, delayed economic data releases, and earnings reports from major tech companies [1][7] - The non-farm payroll data for September was significantly higher than expected, with an increase of 119,000 jobs, compared to a previous value of -4,000 and an expectation of 50,000 [2][8] - The unemployment rate in the US rose to 4.4% in September, exceeding both the previous value and the expectation of 4.3% [2][8] Group 2 - The report highlights that the market anticipates a 71% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, as indicated by comments from various Fed officials [1][9] - The report notes that the short-term outlook for US stocks is challenged by high valuations and economic data uncertainty, while AI and technological innovation remain long-term growth drivers [1][7] Group 3 - In the global asset market, major asset classes showed mixed performance, with CBOT soybean oil rising by 1.22% and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 5.13%, marking the largest decline [2][26] - The report details that the major equity markets primarily exhibited a downward trend, with the Shenzhen Component Index and Hang Seng Index experiencing significant declines [2][29] Group 4 - The report provides updates on key economic data, including a rebound in the Eurozone economic sentiment index and a decline in the UK consumer confidence index [3][45][49] - Japan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a month-on-month increase, indicating inflationary pressures [3][59]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a focus on enhancing industrial quality and efficiency, ensuring housing security, fostering a technology innovation ecosystem, and promoting financial connectivity to solidify the foundation for high-quality economic development [12][14][19] - The report indicates that the A-share market experienced a downward trend across major sectors, with the largest declines seen in industrial trade and comprehensive (-12.10%), electrical equipment (-9.54%), and daily consumer retail (-8.88%) [23][26] Group 2: Industry Policy Tracking - The Ministry of Commerce and six other departments have initiated the "East Silk West Solid" project to optimize the silk industry layout, aiming to establish around 10 leading enterprises with over 10 billion yuan in revenue by 2028 [13] - The China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association is set to implement a cost disclosure system for lithium iron phosphate, addressing the industry's ongoing losses and promoting fair pricing practices [14] - The Ministry of Finance has announced early budget allocations for housing security projects, emphasizing the importance of effective fund management and oversight [15] Group 3: Sector Performance - In the automotive sector, sales of various types of truck-mounted cranes reached 1,907 units in October 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, with domestic sales growing by 2.41% [18] - The semiconductor design industry in China has maintained a compound annual growth rate of 19.6% from 2006 to 2025, indicating robust growth potential driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and electric vehicles [19] - The consumer market for collectible toys has seen significant growth, with retail sales projected to reach 55.83 billion yuan in 2024, highlighting a new economic growth point within the toy industry [20]

Group 1 - The report highlights a combination of strong non-farm payrolls and dovish Federal Reserve actions as illogical, suggesting that the resulting decline in U.S. markets may become a norm in the upcoming quarter [3][9] - The ongoing technological revolution may face a "bubble burst" moment, emphasizing the need to monitor whether technology positively impacts demand [3][9] - Market sentiment is expected to remain weak in the short term, recommending a cautious approach to positioning and waiting for better opportunities [3][9] Group 2 - Fiscal stimulus is anticipated to be a primary support mechanism for the U.S. economy moving forward [3][9] - The allocation towards the energy sector is seen as a response to overheating expectations regarding U.S. AI investments, suggesting a focus on short to medium-term trading strategies [3][9] - Long-term optimism is expressed for sectors such as insurance, anti-involution industries, Chinese internet companies, and military trade [3][9] Group 3 - In September, the U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations with an addition of 119,000 jobs, significantly higher than the anticipated 51,000 [8] - The unemployment rate in September rose to 4.4%, up from 4.3% in the previous month, indicating a healthy increase in labor force participation [8][10] - The report notes that the increase in labor force participation suggests more individuals are entering the job market, which may lead to a temporary rise in unemployment rates as they seek employment [8][10]