Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 49.20 [5][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in its power battery profitability throughout 2025, with a production capacity utilization rate exceeding 60% in Q1 2025 and anticipated further increases in Q2 [2]. - The energy storage business is projected to continue growing in volume while maintaining stable profitability, with the company holding the second-largest global market share in energy storage batteries [3]. - The consumer battery segment remains a cash cow for the company, with a revenue increase of 23.4% year-on-year in 2024, and a forecasted growth rate of 20% for 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Power Battery Business - In 2024, the company shipped 30.29 GWh of power batteries, although it remained in a loss position. The company expects significant growth in power battery shipments in 2025 due to new customer acquisitions in passenger vehicles and increased demand in commercial vehicles [2]. - The company has secured a contract with BMW for cylindrical batteries and is expanding production capacity in Hungary and the U.S. [2]. Energy Storage Business - The company shipped 50.45 GWh of energy storage batteries in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 91.9%. The estimated net profit per watt-hour is approximately RMB 0.03 [3]. - A procurement agreement for 50 GWh of battery cells was signed with a partner for the years 2025-2027, providing revenue support for the energy storage segment [3]. Consumer Battery Business - The consumer battery segment generated revenue of RMB 10.32 billion in 2024, with a gross margin of 27.58%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.85 percentage points [4]. - The company has expanded its market share in various segments, including small cylindrical batteries, and has begun production at its new facility in Malaysia [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 5.035 billion, RMB 6.727 billion, and RMB 7.939 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is RMB 72.494 billion, representing a 49.12% increase from 2024 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 103.67 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company is optimistic about the development opportunities brought by AIGC and Chiplet, which are expected to enhance its IP and custom chip service business. The successful progress of the private placement project will further strengthen its layout in AIGC and smart mobility Chiplet solutions, potentially opening new growth spaces for future performance [1]. - The company is making continuous investments in the AI sector, aiming to seize opportunities in the high-performance AI chip market. The demand for semiconductor IP and custom chip services is expected to grow due to advancements in AI technology. The company has established a strong market position, with its NPU IP being utilized by 72 clients across 128 AI chip models [2]. - The company is accelerating its Chiplet layout, transitioning its IP model towards Chiplet technology. This shift is driven by the industry's move from SoC to SiP, influenced by the slowdown of Moore's Law. The company is developing Chiplet solutions for AIGC and smart mobility, addressing the high-performance computing needs in sectors like autonomous driving and data centers [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains the forecast for the company's net profit attributable to the parent company at RMB -1.05 million for 2025, RMB 0.13 million for 2026, and RMB 0.56 million for 2027. The valuation for the custom chip/IP licensing business is set at 12.0x and 30.0x for 2025, with a target price of RMB 103.67, reflecting a premium due to the company's competitive advantages in the HPC/AI sector [4].

证券研究报告 石头科技 (688169 CH) 2025 年中期策略会速递—— 618 大促开局良好，坚定全球化战略 华泰研究 更新报告 2025 年 6 月 06 日│中国内地 小家电 6 月 5 日石头科技出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司表示： 1）618 第一周期全品类销售额同比高增长；2）境外产能快速爬坡，美国关 税保持跟踪；3）修炼内功，加速全球化扩张战略的落地。 国内 618 大促开局良好 根据奥维云网的监测，5 月 12 日至 6 月 1 日，扫地机、洗地机行业的线上 销售额同比分别为+27%、+34%。分品牌看，同期石头品牌的扫地机、洗 地机线上销售额同比分别为+57%、1064%。公司的线上动销表现远好于行 业平均水平。618 是国内 2 季度最重要的大促活动，公司实现良好开局。 境外产能快速爬坡，美国关税风险保持跟踪 为应对美国关税政策的变化，2024 年 10 月公司在越南设立代工厂。凭借出 色的供应链管理能力，今年以来越南产能快速爬坡，并开始批量发货。公司 提前布局，主动采取措施，通过供应链的多元化、产品推新等多种举措应对 美国关税政策影响。 不断修炼内功，加速全球化 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 253.23 RMB [9][10]. Core Views - The company reported strong sales growth during the 618 shopping festival, with online sales of sweeping and washing machines increasing by 57% and 1064% year-on-year, respectively, significantly outperforming the industry average [4][3]. - The company is rapidly increasing its overseas production capacity, having established a factory in Vietnam to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, and is actively managing its supply chain to adapt to changing policies [5][3]. - The company is focusing on internal improvements and accelerating its globalization strategy, with organizational and sales structure adjustments made in 2024 leading to rapid revenue growth in late 2024 and early 2025 [6][3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The company achieved a strong start in the 618 shopping festival, with sweeping machines and washing machines showing online sales growth of 57% and 1064% respectively, compared to the industry averages of 27% and 34% [4][3]. Overseas Production Capacity - In response to U.S. tariff policies, the company set up a factory in Vietnam in October 2024, which has quickly ramped up production and started bulk shipments, demonstrating effective supply chain management [5][3]. Globalization Strategy - The company has enhanced its organizational capabilities and resource reserves over the past decade, implementing strategic adjustments in 2024 that have led to significant revenue growth in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 [6][3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 2.035 billion RMB, 2.321 billion RMB, and 2.828 billion RMB, with corresponding EPS of 11.01, 12.56, and 15.30 RMB [7][3]. - The target price is set at 253.23 RMB, based on a 23x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's strong product capabilities and successful globalization efforts [7][3].

Group 1: Credit Bond Strategy - The credit bond market is expected to continue in a volatile state, with a focus on interest rate strategies and band trading being more favorable than pure selection of varieties [5][38] - The strategy suggests focusing on short to medium-term credit bonds and high-grade long-term bonds to seek opportunities for interest rate compression [5][38] - The recommendation is to increase allocation in high-grade bonds from local government financing vehicles, real estate, and stable industries during market adjustments [5][38] Group 2: Local Government Financing Bonds - The transformation of local government financing vehicles is entering a complex phase, with potential pricing discrepancies as platforms adapt to new regulations [2][43] - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to remain low due to strict regulatory oversight and the ongoing transition of platforms [2][43] - Focus on short to medium-term bonds from regions with stable cash flows, particularly in Guangdong, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Henan, is recommended [2] Group 3: Financial Bonds and Varieties - High-grade perpetual bonds can be traded in response to interest rate fluctuations, but the trading space is limited and requires high trading standards [3][39] - The strategy includes focusing on high-grade bonds with a maturity of 3-5 years for stable institutions, while actively trading lower-grade bonds during market adjustments [3][39] - The expansion of TLAC non-capital instruments and their comparison with secondary capital bonds is highlighted as an area of interest [3][39] Group 4: Industrial Bonds - Industrial bonds have shown some recovery in profitability, but performance remains varied across sectors, with strong performance in automotive, machinery, and utilities, while real estate and construction sectors lag [4] - The recommendation is to focus on high-quality state-owned enterprises and stable private enterprises for medium-term investments [4] Group 5: Real Estate Bonds - The real estate sector is under pressure, with a recommendation to focus on high-grade bonds from state-owned enterprises while monitoring the recovery of the sector [4] - The potential for policy support in the real estate market could enhance recovery in core cities, but caution is advised for lower-tier cities [4] Group 6: Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) and Public REITs - The market for consumer finance ABS is expanding, with opportunities for variety exploration in a volatile market [3][39] - Public REITs are recommended to balance opportunities in both primary and secondary markets, focusing on stable projects [3][39]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 20.40 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company is actively embracing AI transformation, with continuous updates to its Agent use cases covering various enterprise processes such as finance, human resources, supply chain, and manufacturing [1][2]. - There is a growing willingness among large enterprises to purchase AI applications, with the company having signed AI contracts with major clients like Tianhe Energy and Anshan Iron and Steel [3]. - The internal use of AI technology has significantly improved operational efficiency, leading to a reduction in employee numbers to 19,594, down by 1,689 from the end of 2024 [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at RMB 99.58 billion, RMB 110.18 billion, and RMB 123.15 billion respectively, with EPS expected to be RMB 0.05, RMB 0.17, and RMB 0.31 [5][7]. Summary by Sections Product Development - The company launched the YonGPT enterprise service model in 2023, followed by the YonGPT 2.0 version in 2024, and the "Yonyou BIP Enterprise AI" in 2025, which includes a three-layer architecture for intelligent solutions across ten core business areas [2]. Commercialization - The demand for AI applications among large enterprises has surged, with the company serving over 58,000 medium and large enterprises and signing contracts with 45 central state-owned enterprises by Q1 2025 [3]. Efficiency Improvement - The integration of AI technology has led to significant efficiency gains within the company, optimizing various operational aspects and improving profitability [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its revenue forecast for 2025-2027 and assigns a 7x PS valuation for 2025, sustaining a target price of RMB 20.40 [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 49.20 [5][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in its power battery profitability throughout 2025, with a production capacity utilization rate exceeding 60% in Q1 2025 and anticipated further improvements in Q2 [2]. - The energy storage business is projected to continue growing in volume while maintaining stable profitability, with the company holding the second-largest global market share in energy storage batteries [3]. - The consumer battery segment remains a cash cow for the company, with a revenue increase of 23.4% year-on-year in 2024, and the company expects a revenue growth rate of 20% in 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Power Battery Business - In 2024, the company shipped 30.29 GWh of power batteries, although it remained in a loss position. The company expects significant growth in power battery shipments in 2025 due to new customer acquisitions in passenger vehicles and increased demand in commercial vehicles [2]. - The company has secured a contract with BMW for cylindrical batteries and is expanding its production capacity in Hungary and the U.S. [2]. Energy Storage Business - The company shipped 50.45 GWh of energy storage batteries in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 91.9%. The estimated net profit per watt-hour for energy storage is approximately RMB 0.03 [3]. - A procurement agreement for 50 GWh of battery cells was signed with a partner for the years 2025-2027, providing revenue support for the energy storage segment [3]. Consumer Battery Business - The consumer battery segment generated revenue of RMB 10.32 billion in 2024, with a gross margin of 27.58%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.85 percentage points [4]. - The company has expanded its market share in various segments, including small cylindrical batteries, and has commenced production at its new factory in Malaysia [4]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 5.035 billion, RMB 6.727 billion, and RMB 7.939 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][28]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is RMB 72.494 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 49.12% [28].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) for both A-shares and H-shares, with target prices set at RMB 45.50 and HKD 40.00 respectively [9][10]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the company's strong resource base, business synergy, and stable downstream consumption, which enhance its ability to withstand cyclical fluctuations. The low volatility and high yield logic continue to highlight the company's value, thereby restoring investor confidence in long-term allocations [1]. - Short-term industry factors present a mixed outlook, with positive signals such as decreased coal imports and potential recovery in domestic energy consumption, while negative signals include early inventory build-up and increased supply from Xinjiang due to reduced transportation costs [2]. - Long-term industry factors indicate that the cost structure is becoming more rigid due to inflation and regulatory changes, which are expected to support coal prices despite a downward trend [3]. - The company is positioned as a leading integrated player in the coal, electricity, and transportation sectors, leveraging its high-quality resources and strategic partnerships to navigate market cycles effectively [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Short-term Factors - Positive factors include a decrease in coal imports by 742.70 million tons year-on-year, leading to a potential easing of supply-demand imbalances [2]. - Negative factors include early inventory increases due to early resumption of coal mining and reduced transportation costs that may increase overall supply [2]. Industry Long-term Factors - The coal industry is experiencing a loss rate exceeding 60% due to rising production costs driven by inflation and regulatory compliance, which is expected to support higher coal prices in the long run [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 50.1 billion, RMB 50.0 billion, and RMB 50.2 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The report maintains a DDM valuation approach, resulting in target prices of RMB 45.50 for A-shares and HKD 40.00 for H-shares [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is entering the 2.0 phase of brand development, transitioning from merely meeting consumer preferences to leading consumption trends [1][2] - The company has shown strong performance in major sales events, consistently ranking at the top across various metrics [2] - The company is focusing on product enhancement rather than blindly launching new products, with significant upgrades planned for its brands [2] - The company is successfully increasing its direct sales ratio, which is expected to exceed 50% in 2024 [3] - The expansion of production capacity is progressing smoothly, with minimal impact from tariffs due to the company's low export ratio to the U.S. [4] Financial Projections and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 7.94 billion, 11.21 billion, and 15.04 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.99, 2.80, and 3.76 RMB [5][7] - The target price is set at 130 RMB, based on a valuation of 65.5 times the estimated earnings for 2025 [5][9] - The company is expected to benefit from the growth of the domestic pet industry, with a clear and effective brand-building strategy [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 79.37 [8][9]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a value stock that combines stability and growth potential, with a focus on both stable and growth-oriented businesses [1]. - The stable business segment is expected to see steady profit contributions as capital investments solidify, despite a slight decline in electricity prices at the Yangjiang Nuclear Power Station [2]. - The growth segment is driven by successful launches of zero-carbon projects in mainland China and India, which are anticipated to inject growth potential into the company's performance [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Stable Business - In Q1, electricity sales in Hong Kong decreased by 2.6% year-on-year to 7.091 billion kWh, influenced by weather and the leap year in 2024. However, the company remains optimistic about profit contributions due to a regulated profit margin of 8% on net fixed assets and a high certainty in capital expenditures projected at HKD 52.9 billion from 2024 to 2028 [2]. Growth Business - The company has expanded its zero-carbon asset portfolio, with projects such as the 150MW wind farm in Guangxi and the 90MW solar project in Jiangsu successfully launched in Q1. The investment plan for zero-carbon projects aims to double renewable energy capacity in mainland China from approximately 3GW to 6GW by 2029, and increase renewable energy and storage capacity in India and Australia significantly [3]. Dividend and Financial Outlook - The company has maintained its dividend per share since 1987, with a proposed interim dividend of HKD 0.63 per share for 2025, consistent with the previous year. The total liquidity is projected to reach HKD 36 billion by the end of 2024, indicating potential for future dividend increases [4]. - The profit forecast for the company estimates net profits of HKD 12.1 billion for 2025, with an EPS of HKD 4.79. The target price reflects a PB ratio of 1.85x for 2025, which is above the historical average of 1.51x, indicating confidence in future earnings growth and dividend enhancement [5].