证券研究报告 宏观 研究员 易峘 evayi@htsc.com 研究员 胡李鹏，PhD SAC No. S0570525010001 SFC No. BWA860 hulipeng@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 联系人 赵文瑄 SAC No. S0570124030017 zhaowenxuan@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 虽然中东地缘政治冲突推高油价，但联储主要关注国内就业市场和通胀走 势，预计 6 月会议大概率维持利率不变。中东地缘政治冲突一度显著推高 原油价格，近期已有所回落，对美国经济和通胀影响较为有限。5 月联储会 议以来，美国就业和通胀数据指示联储大概率维持利率不变。一方面，5 月 会议以来，中美关税降级，市场对美国经济衰退的担忧下降，美国就业市场 有序降温：4-5 月新增非农人数连续超预期，但 3 个月移动均值整体下行； 周度首申、续申人数也显示就业市场放缓，但未大规模裁员。另一方面，5 月 CPI、PPI 通胀整体不及预期，关税对通胀的推升暂不明显，但高频数据 前瞻指引方面，预计鲍威尔继续强调未来政策利率路径依赖于数据；预计 联储将下调 2 ...

证券研究报告 虽然中东地缘政治冲突推高油价,但联储主要关注国内就业市场和通胀走 势,预计 6 月会议大概率维持利率不变。中东地缘政治冲突一度显著推高 原油价格,近期已有所回落,对美国经济和通胀影响较为有限。5月联储会 议以来,美国就业和通胀数据指示联储大概率维持利率不变。一方面,5月 会议以来,中美关税降级,市场对美国经济衰退的担忧下降,美国就业市场 有序降温:4-5月新增非农人数连续超预期,但3个月移动均值整体下行; 周度首申、续中人数也显示就业市场放缓,但未大规模裁员。另一方面,5 月 CPI、PPI 通胀整体不及预期,关税对通胀的推升暂不明显,但高频数据 显示关税仍在推高商品价格,联储仍可能担忧关税带来通胀压力。 宽观 6 月 FOMC 预览:联储仍有等待的空 | 华泰研究 | | | --- | --- | | 2025年6月17日 中国内地 | 动态点评 | 概览:北京时间6月19日(周四)凌晨美联储将公布6月议息会议决定, 虽然中东地缘政治冲突推高油价,但我们预计目前对联储影响有限,联储主 要关注国内就业市场和通胀的走势:就业市场有序降温、关税对通胀传导暂 不明显,因此预计联储６月会议上将维持利率 ...

今日早参 2025 年 6 月 17 日 策略首席研究员兼金融工程联席首席 研究员 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：5 月经济数据: 消费走强，生产偏弱 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 何康 5 月经济活动数据点评 由于 2024 年 5 月经济活动基数走低，今年 5 月经济数据总体呈现出"环比 放缓、同比稳健"的态势，具体看，外需和工业生产环比减速，地产销售和 投资增长同比降幅走阔，而消费增长大幅超预期，但部分受一次性因素提 振。随着"抢出口"退坡，关税不确定性下出口订单增长放缓，5 月出口、 发电量、工业增加值同比同步回落。同时，虽然广义（一般公共预算+政府 性基金）财政支出同比保持高速增长，但环比增长在 4 月后有所放缓，短期 对总需求贡献有所回落（图表 1）。内外需因素共振下，短期增长不确定性加 强，市场主体风险偏好边际回落，也部分可以解释为何地产销售环比减速。 社零同比增长较为亮眼，主要受益于"618"错位及五一假期出行活跃同比 增速超预期增长。考虑到后续"以旧换新"政策退坡、整治违规聚餐等政策 的影响、社零高增的持续 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the consumer sector and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant recovery in consumer spending, with May retail sales reaching 4.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, surpassing expectations [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the impact of government policies and holiday consumption on driving retail growth, particularly in travel and quality lifestyle categories [1][2]. - Emerging categories driven by emotional value and technological innovation are identified as key investment opportunities [1][4]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - In May, dining and retail sales grew by 5.9% and 6.5% respectively, with a notable increase in travel spending during the May Day holiday [2]. - The 618 shopping festival started earlier this year, contributing to a 8.5% year-on-year increase in online retail sales from January to May, totaling 6 trillion yuan [2]. Category Analysis - Essential goods such as food and beverages saw significant price increases of 14.6% and 11.2% respectively in May [3]. - Upgraded consumption categories like home appliances and furniture experienced remarkable growth, with increases of 53.0% and 25.6% respectively [3]. - Jewelry sales rose by 21.8%, attributed to stable gold prices and investment demand [3]. CPI and Consumer Sentiment - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year in May, primarily due to falling energy prices, while core CPI increased by 0.6% [4]. - The report notes a rise in prices for gold and durable consumer goods, indicating a strong demand for quality living and emotional value consumption [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main investment themes: new consumer opportunities driven by domestic brands, high-growth emotional consumption sectors, the burgeoning silver economy, and AI-driven consumption [5]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include: - Domestic brands: Mao Ge Ping, An Ta Sports, Hai Lan Home, Shenzhou International, Li Ning, and others [5]. - High-growth emotional consumption: Pop Mart, Blukoo, Miniso, and others [5]. - Silver economy: Stable Medical, Guai Bao Pet, and others [5]. - AI + Consumption: Kid King, Ugreen Technology, and others [5]. Target Prices and Ratings - The report provides target prices and maintains "Buy" ratings for several companies, including Mao Ge Ping (target price 127.89 HKD), An Ta Sports (117.98 HKD), and others [9][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation transportation sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The aviation industry is expected to benefit from a strong summer travel season, with airlines likely to realize pricing and profit elasticity [2][5]. - The industry has shown a steady increase in capacity and passenger load factors, indicating a positive trend in operational performance [3][4]. - Airlines are anticipated to enter a profit cycle due to low supply growth and improved revenue management, alongside the appreciation of the Renminbi [2][5]. Summary by Sections Passenger Load Factors - In May, the three major airlines reported a passenger load factor of 84.1%, up 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, with capacity increasing by 6.0% [3][11]. - Spring Airlines achieved a load factor exceeding 90%, reflecting strong operational performance [4]. - The overall passenger load factor for the combined three major airlines, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines was 84.6%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [11]. Revenue and Pricing - The report indicates that the average ticket price has been rising for eight consecutive weeks, suggesting a positive revenue outlook for the summer peak season [2][5]. - The domestic route average ticket price was reported at 693 RMB, showing a significant improvement compared to previous weeks [5]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in several airlines, including China National Aviation (753 HK), China Eastern Airlines (670 HK), and Spring Airlines (601021 CH), among others, with target prices set for each [9][25]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies indicate a favorable investment outlook [25][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [7] Core Insights - The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict is expected to drive oil prices higher, which historically correlates with an increase in coal prices due to their price linkage [1][12] - The coal chemical sector is experiencing significant demand growth, driven by the cost advantages of coal over oil in chemical production [2][39] - High temperatures and reduced water levels are anticipated to boost coal demand during the summer peak season [3][48] - Indonesia's coal production is projected to decline, which may improve the supply-demand balance for low-calorie coal in the market [4][53] - Despite a generally pessimistic market outlook for coal prices, there is a notable opportunity for price rebounds, particularly for undervalued coal companies [5] Summary by Sections Section 1: Oil and Coal Price Dynamics - The Israel-Iran conflict has led to increased oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude futures rising by 7.0% and 7.3% respectively on June 13 [1][14] - Historical data shows a strong correlation between oil and coal prices, with an average oil-coal price ratio of 3.37 since 2000 [1][18] Section 2: Coal Chemical Demand - The coal chemical sector's demand growth reached 16.4% from January to May, significantly exceeding previous forecasts [2][41] - The profitability of coal-based ethylene glycol production is expected to improve, with projected profits turning positive by May 2025 [2][39] Section 3: Seasonal Demand Factors - The average national temperature in May was 17.1°C, 0.9°C higher than the previous year, indicating increased electricity demand [3][48] - A forecasted 9% decline in hydropower generation hours is expected to translate into an additional 0.3 million tons of coal demand [3][50] Section 4: Indonesian Coal Production - Indonesia's coal production is expected to decrease by 13% in 2025, leading to a potential 20% reduction in export volumes [4][53] - This reduction is anticipated to alleviate the oversupply of low-calorie coal in the Chinese market [4][53] Section 5: Market Sentiment and Investment Opportunities - The current market sentiment for coal prices is pessimistic, but there is a significant potential for price recovery [5] - Recommended companies include China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Jinneng Holding Group, all of which are considered undervalued with strong dividend yields [5][58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the telecommunications sector, including China Mobile, Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and others [10][50]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth in AI training demand in North America, as evidenced by the strong performance of Oracle and CoreWeave in Q1 2025. Oracle observed a broad increase in AI training demand from multiple clients and raised its capital expenditure forecast for FY26. CoreWeave's revenue reached $982 million, exceeding market expectations by 14%, driven by substantial orders from major clients like Microsoft and OpenAI [2][3][14]. - The report suggests that the recent acceleration in overseas AI infrastructure development presents investment opportunities in related supply chains, including optical modules, CPO, copper connections, and AIDC [2][3][20]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The telecommunications index fell by 0.78% last week, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.25% and 0.60%, respectively [2][13]. Key Companies and Developments - Oracle's Q1 FY25 revenue was $15.9 billion, an 11% year-over-year increase, with cloud infrastructure revenue growing by 52%. The company plans to invest over $25 billion in capital expenditures next fiscal year due to observed AI training demand [14][15]. - CoreWeave reported Q1 FY26 revenue of $982 million, a 420% year-over-year increase, driven by strong AI training demand from major clients. The company signed a $11.9 billion contract with OpenAI and has a remaining performance obligation of $25.9 billion [15][20]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - China Mobile (600941 CH) with a target price of 126.40 and a "Buy" rating - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 CH) with a target price of 164.78 and a "Buy" rating - Xinyi Sheng (300502 CH) with a target price of 128.76 and a "Buy" rating - Tianfu Communication (300394 CH) with a target price of 119.12 and a "Buy" rating - Other companies such as Ruijie Networks and Hengtong Optic-Electric are also recommended [10][50][51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company plans to invest up to 3.3 billion RMB to build amino acid and supporting projects, increasing annual production capacity of threonine and MSG by 200,000 tons and 250,000 tons respectively [1][2] - The company's threonine and MSG production capacity is expected to rise from 268,000 tons and 420,000 tons in 2024 to 468,000 tons and 670,000 tons in 2027, enhancing its market share [1][2] - The report anticipates that the global threonine capacity and domestic MSG capacity will maintain a CR3 of over 80% by 2027, with the company’s market share projected to increase to 26% and 17% respectively [1][2] Summary by Sections Investment Overview - The project is located in Daqing, Heilongjiang, with a construction period of approximately 22 months and expected annual sales revenue of about 3.9 billion RMB upon reaching full capacity [2] - The company will finance the project through a mix of self-funding and bank loans, each accounting for about 50% [2] Market Conditions - The report notes that the prices for lysine and threonine have seen slight declines, but demand is expected to improve as the peak season approaches and due to the reduction in soybean meal usage [3] - The company’s corn deep processing project in Xinjiang, which includes small amino acid products, is progressing and is expected to contribute to future growth [3] Financial Projections - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 1.32 billion, 1.41 billion, and 1.59 billion RMB respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 40%, 7%, and 12% [4] - The estimated EPS for the same period is projected to be 0.80, 0.85, and 0.96 RMB [4] - The target price is set at 9.60 RMB, with a PE ratio of 12 times for 2025, reflecting the company's early-stage project developments [4][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and building materials sectors [6]. Core Insights - Investment sentiment in the construction sector is showing divergence, with a focus on capacity clearance and high-demand sub-sectors. Infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water supply) increased by 5.6% year-on-year, while real estate investment decreased by 10.7% [1]. - The retail sales of construction and decoration materials showed a year-on-year increase of 3.0% in the first five months of 2025, indicating a recovery in retail demand [2]. - Cement production in the first five months of 2025 was 659 million tons, down 4.0% year-on-year, with the decline in production accelerating [3]. - The average price of float glass decreased by 22.1% year-on-year in May 2025, reflecting supply pressure due to the resumption of production lines [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Trends - Infrastructure investment growth is positive at 5.6%, while real estate investment continues to decline at -10.7% [1]. - Retail sales in the building materials sector are recovering, with a 3.0% increase in the first five months of 2025 [2]. Cement Industry - Cement production decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, with a notable decline in the average shipment rate [3]. - The average price of cement in May 2025 was 380 yuan per ton, up 2.7% year-on-year, but the market is experiencing weak demand [3]. Glass Industry - Float glass production decreased by 4.9% year-on-year, with prices declining due to increased supply from resumed production lines [4]. - The average price of photovoltaic glass also saw a decrease, indicating cost pressures in the sector [4]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several stocks in the construction and building materials sectors, including Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Nuclear Engineering, and Huaxin Cement, all rated as "Buy" with target prices set for 2025 [8][31].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the importance of embracing core assets in the home appliance sector, focusing on innovation and overseas localization capabilities to capture growth opportunities [2][6][19] - The home appliance sector has shown positive fundamentals, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 13.7% and a net profit growth of 25.3% in Q1 2025, indicating a strong recovery in domestic demand [3][42] - The report identifies three major trends: anchoring on core assets in the home appliance sector, strengthening overseas localization capabilities, and focusing on AI and innovation for growth [2][6][20] Group 2 - The domestic demand structure is balanced, with domestic sales accounting for approximately 59% and exports for 41%, supported by strong growth in emerging markets [14][15] - The "old-for-new" policy continues to support domestic demand, with an expansion of covered categories from 8 to 12 in 2025, maintaining a subsidy rate of 15%-20% [16][54] - The report highlights the importance of innovation in the home appliance sector, with a shift towards smart and health-oriented products driving market growth [17][30] Group 3 - The report recommends several companies as investment opportunities, including Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, and TCL Electronics, which exhibit strong market positions and growth potential [21][22][26] - Companies like Stone Technology and Ecovacs are highlighted for their global expansion strategies and potential for revenue growth [24][25] - The report also emphasizes the importance of companies with strong localization capabilities to mitigate risks associated with tariffs and enhance competitiveness in overseas markets [5][23][53]