Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Indonesia plans to reduce nickel mining quotas by 2025, which may impact future nickel prices depending on the implementation of this policy [1][71]. - The cobalt market is experiencing price fluctuations, with electrolytic cobalt priced at 176,000 CNY/ton, down 1.40% from the previous week, indicating a weak demand outlook [3][73]. - The rare earth market shows a decline in prices, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium, with expectations of limited downward space for prices in the future [4][29][79]. Summary by Relevant Sections Nickel Industry - As of December 20, LME nickel settled at 14,965 USD/ton, down 5.34%, with total LME nickel inventory at 161,436 tons, a decrease of 1.87% [23][96]. - The report highlights concerns over Indonesia's potential reduction in nickel mining quotas, which could disrupt supply and affect prices [71][72]. Cobalt Industry - Cobalt prices are under pressure, with electrolytic cobalt at 176,000 CNY/ton and a forecast of continued weak price fluctuations due to oversupply and reduced demand from the automotive sector [3][73]. - The report notes a decrease in domestic sulfuric cobalt production and a cautious outlook for demand in the first quarter of the following year [3][73]. Rare Earth Industry - Prices for rare earth elements, particularly praseodymium and neodymium, have seen declines, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide priced at 412,800 CNY/ton, down 2.15% [4][75]. - The overall sentiment in the rare earth market is pessimistic, with expectations of stable demand but cautious purchasing behavior from downstream consumers [4][76][79]. Lithium Industry - The lithium market is experiencing price adjustments, with lithium concentrate prices rising to 810 USD/ton, reflecting a 30 USD increase from the previous week [19][22]. - The report indicates that lithium salt prices are expected to remain volatile, influenced by supply dynamics and demand fluctuations [19][22][65]. Tin Industry - As of December 20, LME tin settled at 28,457 CNY/ton, down 2.83%, with LME tin inventory increasing by 2.15% [25][90]. - The report notes that tin exports from Indonesia are recovering slowly, with significant attention on the resumption of production in key mining areas [25][49]. Antimony Industry - The report mentions a disparity in antimony prices between domestic and international markets, with potential for price recovery if exports resume [52][104]. Uranium Industry - The report indicates a persistent supply-demand gap in the uranium market, with expectations of price support due to production delays and project developments [9][54]. General Market Sentiment - Overall, the market sentiment across various sectors is cautious, with many industries facing challenges related to supply, demand, and pricing dynamics [6][30][76].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral [63] Core Insights - The report highlights that the education sector has seen a decline, with CITIC Education down 2.26% and the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.70%, indicating a performance lag of 1.56 percentage points compared to the market [5][62] - The report suggests that the policy environment for K12, vocational education, and higher education is stabilizing, making it a relatively certain investment direction [62] - The report recommends several companies, including China Oriental Education, Kede Education, and Xueda Education, as potential investment opportunities due to their strong market performance and growth prospects [62][83] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - CITIC Education index has increased by 3.67% year-to-date, while the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 13.70%, showing a 10.03 percentage point underperformance [5][62] - The report notes that the education sector is experiencing a transformation, with a focus on quality education and the integration of technology [62] Market Review - The report indicates that the A-share education sector has seen significant fluctuations, with Kede Education, Kangguan Technology, and Xueda Education being the top gainers this week [68][86] - The report also mentions the performance of Hong Kong education stocks, with notable gains in companies like China Vocational Education and Dongfang Zhenxuan [86] Industry News Overview - The report discusses recent initiatives by the Ministry of Education to enhance the quality of education and the importance of integrating technology into educational practices [89][90] - It highlights the strategic partnership between 3DMakerpro and Nanyang Technological University to advance 3D digital technology in education [11][30] Company Valuation Tables - The report includes valuation tables for A-share and Hong Kong education companies, providing insights into their market capitalization and projected earnings [12][21]

Investment Rating - The industry rating for the non-ferrous metals sector is "Recommended" [2] Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25%-4.50% marks the third consecutive rate cut, totaling a 100 basis point reduction this year [2] - Economic forecasts have been adjusted upwards, with the unemployment rate expected to be 4.2% in 2024, down from previous estimates of 4.4% [2] - Inflation expectations have also been revised, with core PCE inflation projected at 2.8% for 2024, an increase from the prior estimate of 2.6% [2] - The GDP growth forecast for 2024 has been raised to 2.5%, compared to the previous estimate of 2.0% [2] Summary by Sections Economic Overview - The unemployment rate projections for 2024 to 2026 are 4.2%, 4.3%, and 4.3% respectively, showing a slight improvement from earlier estimates [2] - Core PCE inflation expectations for the same period are now 2.8%, 2.5%, and 2.2%, indicating a rising inflation outlook [2] - The GDP growth rate is expected to be 2.5% in 2024, up from the previous forecast of 2.0% [2] Inflation and Consumer Spending - The November CPI year-on-year rate was reported at 2.7%, matching expectations, while the PPI year-on-year rate was 3%, exceeding expectations [3] - Retail sales in December increased by 0.69% month-on-month, higher than the expected 0.6%, and showed an 8% year-on-year growth [4] Future Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's future rate cuts in 2025 are expected to be more cautious, with only two cuts anticipated compared to the previous expectation of four [5] - The median federal funds rate forecast for the end of 2025 is now 3.9%, up from the earlier estimate of 3.4% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that gold will serve as a hedge against potential inflation acceleration in 2025, with a positive outlook for gold prices in the medium to long term [6][8] - Beneficiary stocks in the gold sector include companies such as Yulong Co., Shanjin International, and Zhongjin Gold [8]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2024 年 12 月 19 日 [Table_Title] 鹰派降息下，明年还有多少空间 [Table_Title2] ——12 月美联储议息会议点评 [Table_Summary] 事件概述 北京时间 12 月 19 日凌晨 3 时，美联储公布 2024 年 12 月 FOMC 会议声明。相关点评如下： 主要观点 ► 美联储操作：如期降息 25BP，维持当前缩表节奏 美联储降息 50BP，开启降息周期。美联储 9 月议息会议宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 4.75%至 5.00% 之间（下调 25bp），符合 CME 期货价格隐含的市场预期。但本次会议在降息的同时，下调了明年的降息预期， 出现了所谓的"鹰派降息"。 缩表按原计划推进。此次 FOMC 会议仍表明会继续按之前节奏实施缩表，缩减规模 600 亿美元，其中包括 250 亿 美元国债和 350 亿美元 MBS。 ► 议息会议声明：增加调整利率"幅度和时间"的考虑，表明降息节奏或将放缓 从会议声明的表述来看，相较于 11 月议息会议，增加了利率调整的"幅度和时间"（"将考虑进一步调整联邦基 金 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25-4.5% on December 19, 2024, aligning with market expectations[3] - The Fed signaled a cautious approach to future rate cuts, indicating a potential pause in January 2025 and future cuts dependent on inflation data[4] - The number of expected rate cuts in 2025 was reduced from 4 to 2, reflecting a decrease in the overall expected cut magnitude from 100 basis points to 50 basis points[5][6] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, major U.S. stock indices fell, with the Nasdaq down 3.62%, S&P 500 down 2.95%, and Dow Jones down 2.58%[3] - The market's perception shifted towards a "Higher for Longer" stance, with expectations for rate cuts in 2025 being revised down from 48.3 basis points to around 25 basis points[6][7] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to rise by approximately 20 basis points, moving from a range of 4.1-4.3% to 4.3-4.5%[8][10] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The Fed's confidence in achieving its inflation target has decreased, with the core CPI remaining around 3.66%, significantly above the 2% target[5] - The Fed revised its inflation forecasts upward for 2024-2026, with the 2025 PCE inflation rate adjusted to 2.5%, up by 0.4 percentage points from previous estimates[5][6] - The timeline for reaching the 2% inflation target has been pushed back from 2026 to 2027[5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights that 2023 marks the year of significant investment in the home appliance sector for Xiaomi, transitioning from a product-centric to an ecosystem-centric company under the "Human-Car-Home" strategy [2][29] - Xiaomi's home appliances, including air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines, are expected to drive user integration into the Xiaomi ecosystem, enhancing brand loyalty and sales growth [2][37] - The report emphasizes Xiaomi's focus on industrial design and innovation, which are key drivers for creating popular products and maintaining competitive advantages in the home appliance market [3][61] Summary by Sections 1. Xiaomi's Strategy in Home Appliances - Xiaomi's strategic evolution includes the establishment of a dedicated home appliance division in 2019, with a focus on air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines [22][28] - The "Human-Car-Home" strategy aims to create a seamless ecosystem that connects various devices, enhancing user experience and driving sales [29][33] 2. Growth Drivers for Xiaomi's Home Appliances - Industrial design is a core competency, with a focus on aesthetics and functionality, which enhances product appeal [3][61] - Xiaomi aims to create "explosive products" by reducing SKU counts and focusing on high-impact innovations, such as energy-efficient designs and AI-driven features [3][68] - The company has upgraded its distribution channels, with over 10,000 Xiaomi Home stores, improving service efficiency and customer reach [3][44] 3. Impact of Xiaomi's Entry into Home Appliances - Xiaomi's pricing strategy targets price-sensitive consumers while maintaining product quality, positioning itself against mid-tier brands rather than top-tier competitors [7][8] - The report suggests that Xiaomi's entry into the home appliance market may accelerate market consolidation, but it may not directly compete with leading brands like Gree and Midea [7][8] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends monitoring companies related to home appliances, such as Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, Hisense, and upstream component suppliers [8]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [6] Core Viewpoints - Positive policy signals emphasize the importance of investment opportunities in the consumer sector, with a focus on boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand as key tasks for the upcoming year [2] - The Douyin Mall's Double 12 event saw significant growth, with over 26,000 brands achieving more than 100% year-on-year sales growth, highlighting strong demand in popular categories [3] - The report suggests four main investment themes: 1) cyclical recovery with a focus on operational improvement and valuation recovery; 2) personalized demand driving niche market growth; 3) domestic brands benefiting from supply chain advantages; 4) new retail formats enhancing traditional retail efficiency [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The consumer service index and retail index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 4.83 percentage points and 7.76 percentage points, respectively, during the week of December 9-13, 2024 [18] Industry & Company Dynamics Industry News - McDonald's has implemented a new delivery fee structure, reducing fees for most small orders [24] - Starbucks China has appointed a Chief Growth Officer as part of management restructuring to focus on digitalization and customer experience [24] Industry Investment and Financing - Key financing events include Kamereo raising $7.8 million in Series B funding and "Chain Car Cat" completing an $8 million Series A round [28][30] Macro & Industry Data Retail Data - In October, total retail sales reached 4.54 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, driven by consumption policies and early promotions [32] - Online retail sales grew by 8.3% year-on-year, accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales [36] Gold and Jewelry Data - National gold consumption in Q3 2024 was 217.98 tons, down 22.20% year-on-year, with jewelry consumption significantly affected by high gold prices [43][48]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [6] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - The gaming industry in 2024 is expected to reach a record high revenue of 325.783 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.53% [2][36] - The number of gaming users has reached 674 million, an increase of 0.94% year-on-year, marking a historical peak [2][36] - Revenue from Chinese-developed games in overseas markets has reached 18.557 billion USD, with a year-on-year growth of 13.39% [2][36] - The distribution of overseas revenue shows that the United States accounts for 31.06%, Japan for 17.32%, and South Korea for 8.89%, totaling 57.27% [2][36] - OpenAI's Sora video generation tool has been launched, allowing users to create videos with a maximum resolution of 1080p and a duration of up to 20 seconds [3][38] - The report suggests focusing on three sectors benefiting from policy incentives: gaming industry, Hong Kong internet sector, and film & tourism [4][39] Market Overview - In the week of December 9-13, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.36%, while the SW Media Index rose by 4.11%, ranking third among 31 industries [1][21] - The gaming sector saw a rise of 3.25%, contributing to the overall positive performance of the media industry [1][21] Industry News - Capcom announced a game competition for students using its RE engine, aiming to nurture future talent in the Japanese gaming industry [43] - NetEase's game "Marvel Showdown" reached 10 million players within three days of launch [44] - The TGA 2024 final nominees include several Chinese-developed games, highlighting the competitive landscape [45] - The film "Good Things" has achieved a box office of 549 million RMB, leading the market in November [84]

x 证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2024 年 12 月 14 日 [Table_Title] 宏观情绪提振，本周基本金属偏强运行 [Table_Title2] 有色-基本金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►贵金属：美国 CPI 回升，但美联储 12 月或将继续降 息 本周 COMEX 黄金上涨 0.41%至 2,665.90 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银下跌 1.54%至 31.00 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金上涨 1.57%至 625.60 元/克，SHFE 白银下跌 0.36%至 7,795.00 元/千 克。 本周金银比上涨 1.99%至 86.00。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓减少 258,506.68 金衡盎 司，SLV 白银 ETF 持仓 减少 15,627,776.90 盎司。 周一，美国 10 月批发销售月率-0.1%，前值由 0.3%修改为 0.5%。 周二，美国 11 月纽约联储 1 年通胀预期 2.97%，前值 2.87%。 周三，美国 11 月季调后核心 CPI 月率 0.3% ，预期 0.30%，前值 0.30%。美国 11 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2024 年 12 月 15 日 [Table_Title] 扩内需、促消费，推荐消费建材核心标的 [Table_Title2] 建筑材料 [Table_Summary] ►本周受益标的：（1）扩内需，促消费，推荐具备α属性的消费 建材标的兔宝宝、三棵树、伟星新材、东方雨虹等。（2）重点工 程受益标的中岩大地；（3）打造韧性城市，推荐建筑工业化程度 高的亚厦股份、江河集团，鸿路钢构、金螳螂等受益；城市管网 更新青龙管业、公元股份、中国联塑等受益；（4）江苏成立低空 飞行服务中心，国内 eVTOL 试点城市落地，推荐华设集团、设计 总院；隧道股份、苏交科、深城交等受益；（5）"一带一路"板块 迎催化，推荐中国建筑、中国中冶；中工国际、北方国际、中国 中铁、中国铁建等受益。 ►第 50 周（12/09-12/15）新房交易同环比高位增长，二手房同 比延续持续高增，环比高基下转负。（1）30 城大中城市商品房交 易数据：今年第 50 周，国内 30 大中城市商品房成交面积（新 房）306.14 万㎡，同比+15%，环比+18%；累计交易面积 9684 万㎡，同比 ...