证券研究报告|宏观跟踪周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 12 日 [Table_Title] 税期渐近，7000 亿+政府债缴款 [Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况：关税冲击下，资金面"先紧后松" 复盘本周资金面走势，汇率因素或是贯穿全周的关键变量，主要分为两个阶段： 阶段一，关税冲击下，稳汇率压力抬升，资金面边际收敛。随着美方不正当关税加 码，周一至周二人民币汇率一度贬值，"稳汇率"压力下，资金面也一度收敛。 阶段二，美元逐步走弱，外汇制约缓解，资金面转松。周三（4 月 9 日）起，人民 币汇率压力出现缓释迹象，离岸人民币汇率升至 7.35。这一趋势在周四进一步强 化。在此背景下，人民币汇率贬值压力得到缓解，在岸、离岸人民币汇率持续升 值，资金利率也转为下行。 全周来看，截至 4 月 11日，R001 较前一周五下行 2bp 至 1.64%，DR001 基本与上 周五持平，为 1.62%；R007、DR007 均下行 4bp，分别至 1.70%、1.65%。 ►展望：资金面或将维持相对平稳 下周（4 月 14-18 日）政府债发行将迎阶段性 ...

证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 4 月 12 日 [Table_Title] 美国关税政策引发全球多数市场波动偏多 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点: 由于特朗普关税政策的不确定性，近 期全球市场波动较为明显，本周全球多数市场周内多个交易日 波动较大。本周美股出现之前报告中提到的超跌反弹。另外， 美股周内一些交易日波动较多，本周 VIX 波动率最高上升至 60 以上。本周美股多数成长行业和多数价值行业出现超跌反弹， 但是由于美股的利空因素很难短期真正消除，美股在特朗普关 税问题发生之前就开始下跌，特朗普关税因素只是影响美股走 势的因素之一，美股估值、获利盘抛售、美国经济基本面等等 一些核心因素对美股影响更为关键，预计在经历超跌反弹阶段 之后，美股多数成长行业和多数价值行业还会有进一步回调。 目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率为 29.1，市盈率不属于偏低区 间；费城半导体指数市盈率为 37.7，市盈率仍然偏高；涵盖较 多重要美国科技股的纳斯达克指数的市盈率依然有 35.9，由于 美股科技股估值仍然不低且需 ...

- The report uses Mahalanobis distance to measure industry crowding based on recent weekly price and transaction amount changes[17] - Last week, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry experienced short-term trading crowding[18] - The first quadrant represents industries with simultaneous price and volume increases, while the third quadrant represents industries with simultaneous price and volume decreases. Points outside the ellipse indicate industries with a deviation confidence level exceeding 99%[17] - The Mahalanobis distance formula used in the report is: $ D^2 = (x - \mu)^T \Sigma^{-1} (x - \mu) $ where $ x $ represents the vector of observed values, $ \mu $ represents the mean vector, and $ \Sigma $ represents the covariance matrix[17] - Evaluation: The Mahalanobis distance is a robust measure for identifying short-term trading crowding in industries, providing a clear indication of significant deviations in price and transaction amounts[17] - Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry showed significant short-term trading crowding last week[18] - Mahalanobis distance for industry crowding: Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry[18]

证券研究报告 最新A股、港股、美股估值怎么看？ ——估值周报（0407-0411） 李立峰 SAC NO:S1120520090003 冯逸华 SAC NO:S1120523070007 2025年4月12日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 全球主要指数估值总览 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 上证指数 创业板指 恒生指数 恒生科技 标普500 纳斯达克指数 道琼斯工业指数 日经225 德国DAX 中位数 最大值 最小值 现值 A股 港股 美股 日股 德股 图表1：全球主要指数PE(TTM) 注：自2010年1月起，截至2025年4月11日 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 2 目录 风险提示 3 一、A股市场估值水平 二、A股行业估值水平 三、部分机构集中持有个股估值水平 四、港股市场估值水平 五、港股行业估值水平 六、美股市场估值水平 七、中概股估值、中美银行股估值比较 1.1 A股绝对估值变化 4 图表2、3：A股整体PE(TTM)、A股剔除金融和石油石化PE(TTM，剔除负值) 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 4 14.48 5 10 15 20 25 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The government's support for innovative drugs and policy - capital synergy drive the industry's recovery. The demand for major innovative drugs is expected to increase, and the market window loss will be reduced [11][12]. - In 2025, the investment and financing in the medical and health field have improved, and the momentum of innovative drug going global is strong. The Chinese biopharmaceutical market is expanding, and the industry has entered a harvest period [2][14]. - International conferences such as AACR and ASCO are important for the R & D and application of innovative drugs, and Chinese innovative drugs show strong R & D strength [32][33]. - The future prospects of the pharmaceutical sector are promising, with the industry entering a normalization stage, the marginal impact of procurement decreasing, and continuous policy support for the innovative drug industry chain [37]. - The innovative drug globalization process is expected to continue, as MNCs face the "patent cliff" and Chinese innovative drug companies can provide competitive early - stage R & D pipelines [3][38]. - The CSI Innovative Drug Industry Index and the Guozheng Hong Kong - Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index focus on A - share and Hong Kong - share innovative drug companies respectively, with high elasticity, reasonable valuations, and high growth potential [4][41]. - The Silver Fund's innovative drug ETFs provide investors with low - cost tools to participate in the growth of the innovative drug industry [5][62]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Government Report Re - mentions "Innovative Drugs" - The 2025 government report supports the development of innovative drugs, including improving the drug price formation mechanism and formulating an innovative drug catalog. The top - level policy promotes the "true innovation" industry [11]. - The National Healthcare Security Administration will launch the first - edition Class C drug catalog in 2025, and the "basic medical insurance + commercial insurance" model will solve the payment problem of high - value innovative drugs. The demand for major innovative drugs is expected to increase [11]. - The adjustment time of the medical insurance drug catalog will be advanced, and the "pre - declaration" mechanism will be introduced to reduce market window losses [12]. 3.2 Improvement in Pharmaceutical Enterprise Investment and Financing, Strong Momentum of Innovative Drug Going Global - In January 2025, global medical and health investment and financing had explosive growth, with a monthly financing of $8.004 billion, a year - on - year increase of 88.7%. Domestic investment and financing also showed a warming trend, with a 14.11% month - on - month increase [2][14]. - From 2019 to 2023, the Chinese biopharmaceutical market grew from $45.2 billion to $66.5 billion at a CAGR of 10.5%, and is expected to reach $103.4 billion in 2026 and $162.8 billion in 2030 [16]. - In 2024, the number of new drug IND applications and approvals reached a record high. The clinical progress of domestic innovative biopharmaceuticals is accelerating, and the industry has entered a harvest period [19]. - In the first quarter of 2025, there were 33 Chinese pharmaceutical overseas transactions, with a disclosed amount exceeding $36.2 billion. Chinese pharmaceutical companies are exploring diversified internationalization paths [27]. 3.3 Focus on International Conference Catalytic Nodes - The AACR annual meeting from April 25th to 30th, 2025, is an important platform for cancer research results. 95 Chinese pharmaceutical companies will present over 200 new drug research results, with nearly 100 ADC drugs [32]. - The ASCO annual meeting from May 30th to June 3rd, 2025, is a high - level event in the clinical oncology field, and many important research findings will be announced [33]. 3.4 Future Outlook: Hope and Challenges of Recovery - The industry's special rectification will enter a normalization stage, and the growth of the pharmaceutical sector in the second half of 2025 is expected due to the low - base effect of the second half of last year [37]. - The marginal impact of drug and medical consumables procurement on the industry is gradually decreasing, and the procurement rules are becoming more moderate [37]. - The innovative drug industry chain continues to receive policy support, and the equipment procurement in the second half of the year will be boosted [37]. - The innovative drug globalization process is expected to continue, as MNCs face the "patent cliff" and Chinese innovative drug companies can provide competitive early - stage R & D pipelines [38]. 3.5 CSI Innovative Drug and Hong Kong - Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index Focus on A - Share and Hong Kong - Share Innovative Drug Companies - The CSI Innovative Drug Industry Index selects 50 representative A - share stocks, and the Guozheng Hong Kong - Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index selects 50 representative Hong Kong - share stocks [41]. - Both indexes have high - elasticity historical trends, with the CSI Innovative Drug Index having a cumulative increase of 68.62% from 2015 to March 31, 2025, and the Guozheng Hong Kong - Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index having a cumulative increase of 45.77% from 2019 to March 31, 2025 [42][45]. - As of March 31, 2025, the PE of the CSI Innovative Drug Industry Index is 43.19 times, at the 57.5% quantile since April 2019; the PE of the Guozheng Hong Kong - Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index is 52.26 times, at the 42.7% quantile since November 2021 [46]. - Both indexes focus on chemical innovative drugs, bioproducts, and medical R & D outsourcing. The CSI Innovative Drug Industry Index focuses more on chemical innovative drugs, while the Guozheng Hong Kong - Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index has a higher weight in bioproducts [48]. - Both indexes are positioned in the small - and medium - cap growth style, with high growth potential and continuous revenue growth [54][59]. 3.6 Product Information of Silver Fund's Innovative Drug ETF and Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF - The Silver Fund has developed the Silver CSI Innovative Drug Industry ETF (fund code: 159992) and the Silver Guozheng Hong Kong - Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (fund code: 159567), which closely track the corresponding indexes [62][63]. - The current asset scale of the Silver CSI Innovative Drug Industry ETF is 10.998 billion yuan, with good liquidity. The Silver Guozheng Hong Kong - Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF has a current scale of 972 million yuan and is actively traded [62][63]. - The fund managers of the Silver CSI Innovative Drug Industry ETF are Ma Jun and Wang Shuai, and the fund manager of the Silver Guozheng Hong Kong - Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF is Ma Jun [68].

[Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 11 日 [Table_Title] 模拟芯片与分销：对美关税下重大机遇 [Table_Title2] 电子 行业评级: 推荐 [Table_Summary] 事件概述: 10 日晚，根据芯榜，因关税影响，多家芯片厂暂停报价。 11 日早，半导体协会发文，原产地以"晶圆流片工厂"所在地为准。 分析与判断: 我们判断，部分代理商因为对美 84%关税的考虑，会预估芯片价格将上涨，因此暂停接收订单，直至价格上涨 之后再重新报价。而市场此前认为芯片按封测地报关将减少关税影响，但如按协会发文的情况下，按流片地报 关，则美系芯片将无法规避关税。 证券研究报告|行业点评报告 我们认为国产模拟芯片与分销将是重点受益领域。 ► 国产模拟芯片迎替代机遇 我们认为美系芯片中影响最大的将是模拟芯片，TI 与 ADI 作为全球模拟芯片龙头，主要生产地均在美国，关税 影响直接。如模拟芯片终端涨价，则国产芯片性价比将进一步提升，国产模拟芯片会加速替代，其中车规模拟 芯片更有望受益。 以 TI 为例，根据 TI 年报显示，24 年 TI 模拟芯片收入约 121.6 亿美元，车规芯片收入约 5 ...

Group 1: Tariff Impact on Trade - The "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the U.S. are unlikely to resolve the structural trade deficit, leading to escalating tariff levels, particularly against China, which saw tariffs rise to 125%[7] - If trade negotiations occur mid-year, China's exports to the U.S. could decline by approximately 40%, impacting total exports by 5% and GDP by 0.6%[2] - Delayed negotiations until year-end could result in an 8% decline in total exports, with a 26% impact on trade surplus and a GDP effect of 1.2%[2] Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Trends - The last significant rise in U.S. tariffs occurred between 1920-1933, contrasting sharply with the current economic and political landscape[2] - Historical tariff increases have often led to retaliatory measures from other countries, significantly affecting U.S. exports and contributing to economic downturns[40] - The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 raised tariffs to historic highs, exacerbating the Great Depression and leading to a 66% decline in world trade from 1929 to 1934[46] Group 3: Asset Market Outlook - The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken in the long term due to the "Triffin Dilemma," despite short-term volatility caused by market uncertainty[3] - U.S. Treasury yields are projected to remain stable, with the Federal Reserve expected to pause interest rate cuts in May and potentially lower rates four times within the year, totaling 100 basis points[3] - The U.S. stock market is anticipated to face downward pressure due to policy uncertainties and recession fears, leading to continued volatility[3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" [1] Core Views - Geely Automobile's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with a significant increase in profits driven by a strong new energy vehicle (NEV) sales momentum and an upcoming product cycle [2][3][4] - The company is expected to launch 10 new NEV models in 2025, aiming for a total NEV sales target of 1.5 million units [3] - The merger of Zeekr and Lynk & Co is anticipated to enhance Geely's competitiveness in the mid-to-high-end vehicle market through a focus on smart technology [4][5] - Geely is transitioning into a smart technology company, with a robust technological ecosystem supported by its advanced driving solutions and computing power [5] Financial Summary - The company forecasts a Q1 2025 net profit of RMB 5.2-5.8 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 220-270% [2] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at RMB 317.96 billion, RMB 392.94 billion, and RMB 468.08 billion, respectively, with net profits of RMB 14.04 billion, RMB 17.92 billion, and RMB 23.04 billion [7][9] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are RMB 1.39, RMB 1.78, and RMB 2.29, respectively [7][9] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 9.90, 7.76, and 6.03 times [7][9]

Market Overview - The report indicates a positive sentiment in the equity market, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI Dividend Index rising by 1.16%, 1.31%, and 0.95% respectively on April 10 [2] - The technology sector saw a rotation from large-cap stocks to small-cap stocks, with the STAR 50, STAR Composite Index, and ChiNext Index increasing by 1.09%, 2.06%, and 2.27% respectively [2] - The bond market exhibited a mixed performance, with short-term yields declining due to easing liquidity, while long-term yields rose amid expectations [2][4] Commodity Performance - Precious metals prices rebounded, with both London and New York gold surpassing $3100 per ounce, and domestic gold and silver rising by 3.21% and 3.44% respectively [3] - Industrial metals and energy prices also saw recovery, with New York copper increasing by over 4% and domestic copper rising by 3.86% [3] - In the domestic market, construction-related commodities such as rebar and iron ore saw increases of 2.01% and 3.06% respectively, while coking coal and glass experienced slight declines [3] Currency and Liquidity - The report notes a weakening of the US dollar, which alleviated depreciation pressure on the Chinese yuan, with both onshore and offshore yuan rates approaching 7.32 [3] - The liquidity environment improved, with the central bank conducting a net withdrawal operation of 157.5 billion yuan, yet funding rates remained stable [4] - Overnight funding costs fell to around 1.65%, indicating a comfortable liquidity position [4] Sector Performance - The consumer sector continued to lead gains, particularly in discretionary spending categories such as retail, automotive, and light manufacturing, with respective increases of 4.83%, 3.21%, and 2.93% [7] - The technology sector also performed well, with media, electronics, and communications indices rising by 3.20%, 2.58%, and 2.47% respectively [7] - The report highlights a strong rebound in the A-share market, driven by expectations of stable growth policies and a potential easing of trade tensions [6][7] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.06% and 2.66% respectively, with consumer, materials, and defense sectors showing strong performance [8] - Despite a net outflow of 4.03 billion HKD from southbound funds, the market sentiment remained positive, reflecting a tendency for profit-taking after recent gains [8] - The report notes that the AH share premium index remains around 140, indicating that Hong Kong stocks are still in a recovery phase [8]

Inflation Data Summary - March CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.1%, matching expectations, and was down from -0.7% the previous month[1] - March CPI month-on-month fell by 0.4%, compared to a decrease of 0.2% in the prior month[1] - Core CPI month-on-month remained flat in March, improving from -0.2% the previous month, and was better than the average of -0.1% from 2015-2019[3] PPI Analysis - March PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.5%, worse than the expected decline of 2.2%[1] - PPI month-on-month fell by 0.4%, compared to a decrease of 0.1% in February[5] - The rolling three-month average of PPI is at -0.23%, marking a five-month low, with an annual rate of -2.8%[5] Consumer Behavior Insights - Cumulative CPI for January to March was only 0.1%, the second-lowest in recent years, indicating weak consumer demand[1] - Food prices showed a month-on-month decline of 1.4% in March, which is less than the seasonal average decline of 2.1%[2] - The average price of 28 monitored vegetables increased slightly by 1.2% in early April, indicating potential stability in food prices[2] Sector Performance - The appliance sector saw a month-on-month retail sales increase of 16.4% in March, supporting core CPI stability[3] - Transportation and travel prices negatively impacted core CPI, with airfares and travel costs dropping by 11.5% and 5.9%, respectively[4] - The construction sector remains under pressure, with a PMI new orders index of only 43.5%, significantly below the average of 52.2% from 2021-2024[6] Policy Implications - The weak inflation data suggests that monetary policy may still have room for adjustment, with potential for a reserve requirement ratio cut in April[7] - The report highlights the need for policy support to stimulate demand, as both CPI and PPI are below zero, indicating insufficient demand in the economy[7]