Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 22.50, indicating a potential upside of 34.1% from the current price of HKD 16.78 [2][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the privatization of Zeekr, which is expected to further enhance internal resource integration and operational efficiency within Geely. This move is seen as beneficial for Geely's competitive positioning in the market [6]. - Geely's financial projections show significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of RMB 306.89 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.8% [5][10]. - The report emphasizes the need for Geely to adjust its high-end brand strategy due to declining sales in this segment, particularly for Zeekr's models [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Geely are as follows: RMB 179.20 billion in 2023, RMB 240.19 billion in 2024, and RMB 306.89 billion in 2025, with corresponding growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, and 27.8% respectively [5][10]. - Net profit is projected to be RMB 5.31 billion in 2023, increasing to RMB 16.63 billion in 2024, but expected to decline to RMB 11.90 billion in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year decrease of 28.5% [5][10]. - The report indicates a projected earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 1.18 for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.2 [5][10]. Market Position and Valuation - Geely's market capitalization is approximately HKD 169.11 billion, with a 52-week high of HKD 18.98 and a low of HKD 7.47 [4]. - The report notes that Zeekr's current valuation is low, with a projected price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of only 0.3x for 2025, significantly lower than competitors like Xpeng and Li Auto [6]. - The report suggests that the privatization of Zeekr will allow Geely to consolidate its assets and resources, potentially lowering costs and improving overall competitiveness [6].

Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the internet industry as "Leading" for the period ending May 2025, indicating an expectation of attractive performance relative to the benchmark index [45]. Core Insights - Domestic mobile game revenue showed a slight increase of 8 million CNY or 8% year-on-year, primarily driven by the game "MDnF" [1]. - Tencent's new game "Delta Action" ranked 6th on the iOS game sales chart as of May 6, 2025, with April revenue exceeding 350 million CNY [1]. - NetEase experienced a year-on-year decline of 5% or 20 million CNY in domestic revenue, mainly due to high base effects from "Nirvana in Fire" [1]. - The report highlights the potential for double-digit growth in overseas mobile game revenue in Q2, despite a 19% decline in Tencent's overseas revenue due to high base effects from "Brawl Stars" [1][21]. Summary by Sections Domestic Mobile Game Performance - In April 2025, the total revenue of tracked top mobile games increased by 4% year-on-year and 2% month-on-month, with a cumulative increase of 5% from January to April 2025 [4][6]. - Tencent's domestic mobile game revenue increased by 8 million CNY or 8% year-on-year, while NetEase's revenue decreased by 5% or 20 million CNY [15][18]. New Game Launches - Tencent's "Delta Action" mobile game launched on April 22, 2025, is estimated to generate 30-40 million CNY in its first month [5]. - NetEase's "Seven Days World" mobile game launched on April 24, 2025, is projected to generate 60-80 million CNY in its first month [5]. Overseas Mobile Game Revenue - Tencent's overseas revenue decreased by 5.3 billion CNY or 19% year-on-year, while NetEase's overseas revenue increased by 70 million CNY or 23% [21]. - The report anticipates that new game contributions will help maintain double-digit growth in overseas mobile game revenue in Q2 2025 [21]. Market Trends and Valuation - The report indicates that the gaming industry is experiencing a normalization in license issuance, which is beneficial for healthy industry development [32]. - The average price-to-earnings ratio for key gaming companies is projected at 18.0 for 2025, with Tencent and NetEase having P/E ratios of 17.1 and 14.3, respectively [43].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) is "Buy" [3]. Core Insights - The report indicates that AMD's data center business is expected to accelerate growth post-2H25, with attractive valuations [1]. - The revenue for 1Q25 exceeded expectations, driven by strong client business performance, despite challenges from export controls affecting the data center segment [7]. - The introduction of new products MI350 and MI400 is anticipated to drive significant growth in the data center business in 2H25 and beyond [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for AMD are as follows: - 2023: $22,680 million - 2024: $25,785 million - 2025E: $31,304 million - 2026E: $37,556 million - 2027E: $41,672 million - Year-over-year revenue growth rates are projected at: - 2023: -3.9% - 2024: 13.7% - 2025: 21.4% - 2026: 20.0% - 2027: 11.0% [2][12]. - Non-GAAP EPS estimates are: - 2023: $2.65 - 2024: $3.31 - 2025: $3.88 - 2026: $5.31 - 2027: $6.44 [2][12]. - The report projects a slight adjustment in revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to $31,304 million and $37,556 million respectively, with Non-GAAP EPS adjusted to $3.88 and $5.31 [7]. Market Performance - AMD's stock price closed at $100.36, with a target price raised to $142.00, indicating a potential upside of 41.5% [1][10]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately $162.29 billion [5]. - AMD's stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 16.91% [5]. Product and Market Strategy - The report highlights that the MI350 product launch in mid-2025 is expected to significantly enhance the attractiveness of AMD's data center offerings [7]. - The company is also expected to gain market share in traditional data center CPU business segments [7]. Analyst Commentary - Analysts believe that AMD's product roadmap and execution are strong, and the recent export controls may have a neutral or positive impact on the company's stock performance moving forward [7].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The Chinese government has announced a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing expectations and boosting confidence in the economy, which includes measures from the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1] - The policy measures encompass various sectors, including monetary policy, capital markets, real estate, and the real economy, featuring both short-term relief and long-term structural arrangements [1] - The recent positive shift in China-US trade relations, with the resumption of negotiation channels, is expected to enhance market sentiment and act as a catalyst for the Hong Kong stock market [1] Group 2: Asian Currency Movements - The recent fluctuations in Asian currencies are primarily driven by a reversal in carry trades and an increased demand for risk hedging amid a weakening US dollar [2] - The overall weakness of the dollar has led to a rapid appreciation of Asian currencies, which may cause volatility in global financial market liquidity [2] - The Hong Kong dollar remains relatively stable, with expectations of gradual improvement in liquidity due to a potential slowdown in southbound capital inflows and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Group 3: Internet and Education Sector Performance - In April, stock prices of covered internet and education companies showed significant variation, with notable gains for companies like Cloud Music (+22%) and Youdao (+17%), while others like TAL Education saw a decline of -34% [5] - The upcoming Q1 earnings reports for Chinese internet companies are expected to reflect a recovery in demand, particularly in e-commerce and online travel agencies, with a low base effect potentially boosting expectations for the first half of 2025 [6] - The gaming and entertainment sectors are anticipated to maintain stable performance, with Tencent's games showing resilience and new releases from NetEase being closely monitored for revenue trends [6] Group 4: Market Data Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 22,692, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 13.12%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index saw a slight decline of -0.23% [3] - Key commodities such as Brent crude oil and gold have experienced significant price changes, with Brent down by 16.68% year-to-date, while gold has risen by 29.75% [3] - The report provides a detailed overview of major stock performances, highlighting fluctuations in share prices and market capitalizations across various sectors [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all covered companies in the internet and education sectors, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [4]. Core Insights - The fundamental aspects of the internet and education industries continue to support valuation, with a focus on service platform opportunities. The report anticipates a potential increase in market expectations due to low base effects in the first half of 2025 [1][3]. - The report highlights the expected growth in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) for major e-commerce players, with projections of +6% for the industry, +6% for Alibaba, +10% for JD.com, +13% for Pinduoduo, and +15% for Kuaishou [3]. - The report notes that the valuation of most companies is currently lower than the average level for 2024, presenting opportunities for companies with stable performance and potential for business expansion, particularly those leveraging AI [3]. Company Performance - In April 2025, the stock price performance of covered companies showed significant variation, with notable increases for companies like Cloud Music (+22%) and Youdao (+17%), while companies like TAL Education saw a decline of -34% [5]. - The report indicates that the proportion of Hong Kong Stock Connect holdings for covered companies has increased, with Alibaba's holding rising to 8.7% as of April 2025 [3][6]. - The report anticipates a small wave of companies returning to Hong Kong for listing, as nearly 30 companies meet the conditions for such a move [3]. Financial Metrics - The report provides a detailed valuation summary for various companies, including projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for FY25E and FY26E. For instance, Tencent is projected to have a P/E of 17.4 for FY25E, while Alibaba is expected to have a P/E of 10.7 [4]. - The average P/E ratio across the covered companies is projected to be 16.0 for FY25E, indicating a generally favorable valuation environment [4][9]. Market Trends - The report notes that the market for Chinese concept stocks listed in the U.S. is facing potential delisting risks, but the impact is expected to be less severe than in previous years [3]. - The report highlights the increasing trading volume of Chinese concept stocks in Hong Kong, with a significant rise in trading activity since the introduction of dual-class share structures [7][8].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing market expectations and boosting confidence across various sectors, including monetary policy, capital markets, real estate, and the real economy [1][7][10] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a combination of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, releasing approximately 1 trillion RMB in long-term liquidity, which is expected to lower financing costs for financial institutions and enhance credit supply [1][2][10] - The report anticipates that the combination of these policies will positively impact market sentiment and support the development of the real economy, especially in light of improved China-U.S. trade relations [1][7] Group 2: Monetary Policy Measures - The PBOC has reduced the rates of structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, including the rates for various special structural tools and the personal housing provident fund, which directly lowers financing costs for agriculture, small enterprises, and homebuyers [2][10] - A new 500 billion RMB "service consumption and pension re-loan" initiative and a risk-sharing tool for technology innovation bonds have been established to provide targeted support for consumption and technological innovation [2][10] Group 3: Financial Regulation Initiatives - The financial regulatory authority has announced measures to stabilize the real estate and stock markets, focusing on supporting reasonable financing needs of quality real estate companies and projects [3][5] - The report indicates that insurance funds will play a crucial role in stabilizing the capital market, with plans to expand the scope of long-term investment trials and adjust risk factors for insurance company stock investments [5][10] Group 4: Market Outlook and Sector Focus - The report identifies three main investment themes: technology innovation, high dividend stocks, and policy benefits, suggesting that sectors such as technology hardware, internet technology, and quality consumer leaders are likely to benefit from supportive policies and demand growth [10][12] - The macro environment is expected to provide strong support for the Hong Kong stock market, with liquidity easing signals and internal demand policies being implemented to counter external uncertainties [7][10]

Global Macro Overview - The report discusses the recent appreciation of Asian currencies against the backdrop of a weakening US dollar, highlighting significant increases in currencies such as the Korean won, Singapore dollar, Malaysian ringgit, and Thai baht during the "May Day" holiday period [2][3]. Currency Movements in Asia - The reversal of carry trade positions has contributed to the recent currency movements, as the pressure from Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy has eased, leading to a rebound in Asian currencies and triggering short-covering by market participants [3][4]. - Increased demand for risk hedging has emerged, as major Asian economies have accumulated substantial US dollar reserves, primarily invested in US Treasury securities. The recent rise in credit risk associated with dollar assets has prompted institutions to enhance their hedging operations, accelerating the appreciation of local currencies [4][5]. Implications of Currency Appreciation - The rapid appreciation of Asian currencies poses dual challenges for export-oriented economies. While it mitigates the risk of capital outflows, it may exacerbate trade challenges due to increased export costs. Additionally, the appreciation impacts the net value of dollar-denominated overseas assets, particularly for financial institutions with a "local currency liability, dollar asset" structure, potentially affecting their capital adequacy ratios [5][6]. Hong Kong Dollar Liquidity - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has intervened to stabilize the currency by purchasing USD 6 billion on May 2, 2025, in response to the strengthening of the Hong Kong dollar. The overall liquidity remains relatively robust, with expectations of manageable liquidity pressures in the short term [8][9]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in the liquidity situation for the Hong Kong dollar, driven by a potential slowdown in the inflow of southbound capital and the possibility of the Federal Reserve implementing interest rate cuts in the near term, which could alleviate global dollar liquidity pressures [9].

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 5 月 7 日 今日焦点 | 小米集团 | | 1810 HK | | --- | --- | --- | | 人车家全生态，领跑中国智造，首予买入 | | 评级: 买入 | | 收盘价: 港元 53.10 | 目标价: 港元 60.00 | 潜在涨幅: +13.0% | | 童钰枫 | Carrie.Tong@bocomgroup.com | | 小米作为中国科技行业核心标的，也是自主创新和国产替代先锋，对贸 易不确定因素的直接敞口较小。我们认为，之前小米配售有利于其核心 业务扩展，长期利好公司股价，近期股价回调或提供买入机会。围绕「 人车家全生态」战略，公司业务呈四大亮点：1）智能手机高端化持续突 破，海外市场空间广阔；2）小米汽车精准打造爆品，关注后续产能情况 ；3）积极加码大家电，拓展 AIoT 线下和海外渠道；4）互联网收入有望 借助高端化和海外拓展提升变现能力。 存储器成本下降对智能手机毛利率的正面影响或在 1H25 集中释放。智 能汽车产能继续释放，或在 2025 年扭亏为盈。 首予买入，目标价 60 港元。我们预测 2025/26 年小米总收入分别同比增 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - The report highlights that 京能清洁能源 (579 HK) experienced a slight year-on-year decline in profit of 2.7% in Q1 2025, primarily due to one-off project impacts. However, the company's gross profit increased by 11% year-on-year, driven by new wind and solar installations [1] - The company announced a new dividend policy for 2025-2027, with payout ratios set at 42%, 44%, and 46% of distributable profits, significantly exceeding market expectations. The expected dividends per share for 2025-2027 have been raised to HKD 0.18, 0.21, and 0.24 respectively [1] - The valuation for 京能清洁能源 has been adjusted to a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.5 times for 2025, up from 5.4 times, with the target price increased to HKD 3.03, indicating a potential upside of 27.8% [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The report provides insights into the performance of major global indices, with the 恒指 (Hang Seng Index) closing at 22,505, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 11.88%. In contrast, the 上 A (Shanghai A-share Index) has seen a decline of 2.19% year-to-date [2] - Key commodity prices are highlighted, with Brent crude oil at USD 61.33, down 17.81% over the past three months, while gold futures have increased by 12.55% [3] - The report notes that the overall revenue for 碧桂园服务 (6098 HK) is projected to grow, with a core business revenue share expected to rise to approximately 87% in 2024, while non-owner value-added services will account for only about 1.6% of total revenue [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, 京能清洁能源 (579 HK), with a target price of HKD 3.03, indicating a potential upside of 26.8% from the current price of HKD 2.39 [1][8][16]. Core Insights - The company's first-quarter performance was impacted by one-time items, resulting in a slight year-on-year decline in profit of 2.7% to RMB 1.293 billion. However, the gross profit increased by 11%, driven by new wind and solar installations [2][8]. - A new dividend policy was announced, significantly exceeding market expectations, with payout ratios for 2025-2027 set at 42%, 44%, and 46% of distributable profits, respectively. This is an increase from the previous guidance of 33%, 30%, and 27% [8]. - The company is expected to enhance its market capitalization and liquidity by entering the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which could attract more institutional investors and serve as a catalyst for short-term valuation improvement [8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 20,446 million in 2023, RMB 20,562 million in 2024, RMB 21,883 million in 2025, RMB 23,666 million in 2026, and RMB 25,408 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [7][11]. - Net profit is forecasted to grow from RMB 3,150 million in 2023 to RMB 4,550 million in 2027, with corresponding earnings per share increasing from RMB 0.37 to RMB 0.54 [7][18]. - The company’s dividend per share is expected to rise from RMB 0.14 in 2023 to RMB 0.24 in 2027, with dividend yields projected at 7.8% and 10.6% for 2025 and 2027, respectively [7][8]. Operational Data - The total installed capacity is projected to increase from 14,500 MW in 2023 to 27,486 MW by 2027, with wind and solar power contributing significantly to this growth [10][11]. - The company aims to achieve a wind and solar power share of 81.2% in its total capacity by 2027, indicating a strategic focus on renewable energy sources [10].