Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Google's capital expenditure has been raised, with cloud customer orders continuing to grow, and token consumption has doubled compared to May [13] - Alibaba's Qwen3 model has been updated, showing continuous performance breakthroughs, and domestic computing power is accelerating development [16] - The report emphasizes optimism towards the global AI computing power industry chain, satellite internet, and 6G among seven major industry directions [19] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Insights - Google's Q2 2025 revenue reached $96.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, with cloud revenue at $13.6 billion, growing 31.7% year-on-year [13] - The operating profit margin for Google Cloud improved to 20.7%, up 9.4 percentage points year-on-year, with backlog orders reaching $106 billion, a 38% increase [13][15] - Alibaba's new Qwen3 model has 235 billion parameters and shows superior performance in various benchmarks, indicating significant advancements in AI capabilities [16][18] 2. Industry Trends - The report highlights the ongoing construction of AIDC data centers, with recommended stocks including Yingwei Technology and New Idea Network Group [20] - In IT equipment, recommended stocks include Unisplendour and ZTE, while beneficiaries include Cambricon and Inspur [21] - For network equipment, recommended stocks include Unisplendour and ZTE, with beneficiaries like Ruijie Networks and Minghan Technology [22] 3. Cloud Computing and AI Applications - Beneficiaries in cloud computing platforms include China Mobile, China Telecom, and Alibaba [25] - In AI applications, beneficiaries include Guohua Tong and Meige Intelligent [26] - The report suggests that the AI computing power industry chain is a core focus area, with significant investment potential in AI applications and satellite internet [19] 4. Communication Data Tracking - As of May 2025, the total number of 5G base stations in China reached 4.486 million, with a net increase of 235,000 stations compared to the end of 2024 [29] - The number of 5G mobile phone users reached 1.098 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.3% [29] - The report notes that 5G mobile phone shipments in May 2025 were 21.19 million units, accounting for 89.3% of total shipments, although this represents a year-on-year decrease of 17% [29]

Group 1 - The report maintains an optimistic long-term outlook for the index, suggesting a "slowly rising oscillating market" pattern, with short-term risks of adjustment as the index approaches key levels [2][11][19] - There are two main doubts regarding the market breakthrough: "the fundamentals have not yet bottomed" and "the fiscal support for anti-involution is weak" [12][30] - The central Huijin is identified as a core driving force behind the current market breakthrough, providing stability and support through sustained long-term capital inflows [13][19] Group 2 - The trading heat is currently high, with a significant number of industries showing increased trading activity, particularly in anti-involution sectors [20][21] - The report highlights that the trading volume in several anti-involution industries has surpassed warning thresholds, indicating heightened market activity [23][28] - The report notes that while the overall trading heat is elevated, it does not necessarily indicate the end of the market rally, as seen in previous years [21][30] Group 3 - The anti-involution market phase is characterized by skepticism regarding the strength of fiscal support, despite recent policy changes that may extend the definition of anti-involution [30][31] - Future prospects for the anti-involution market depend on the strength of demand-side policies; insufficient support may lead to a temporary rebound rather than a sustained reversal [34][35] - The report outlines three advantages driving the anti-involution trend: high-level policy attention, clean chip distribution in industries, and increased market risk appetite [31][32] Group 4 - The report recommends a diversified investment strategy focusing on technology, military, finance, and stable dividend stocks, alongside gold [35][36] - Specific sectors highlighted for investment include AI, robotics, semiconductors, and consumer goods, with an emphasis on areas showing marginal improvement in profit growth [36][37] - The report suggests that the current market environment requires a "bull market mindset" while maintaining a cautious approach to avoid blind chasing of highs [35][36]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: DBD-GRU Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Combining factor slicing theory with deep learning to enhance information extraction and prediction capabilities[4][25] - **Model Construction Process**: - Assume input data x contains features A and B, where feature A is the slicing indicator[4] - Use the median of feature A in the time series as the threshold to construct two masks: mask_Ahigh and mask_Alow[4] - Input the masked data into two branch networks: GRU_high and GRU_low[4] - Take the difference between the outputs of the last time step of the two networks as the input to the output layer[4] - Formula: $ \text{DBD-GRU} = \text{GRU}_\text{high} - \text{GRU}_\text{low} $[4] - **Model Evaluation**: The DBD-GRU model provides significant information increment compared to the original slicing theory factors and baseline GRU model factors[5][55] - **Model Testing Results**: - Ideal Amplitude-DBD RankIC: -10.33%[5] - Ideal Reversal-DBD RankIC: -10.31%[5] - Active Buy-Sell-DBD RankIC: -9.81%[5] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Ideal Reversal Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Improve traditional reversal factors by slicing the time series data based on transaction amount[14][15] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Retrieve past 20 days of data for selected stocks[17] - Calculate the average transaction amount per trade for each day[17] - Sum the price changes for the 10 days with the highest transaction amounts, denoted as M_high[18] - Sum the price changes for the 10 days with the lowest transaction amounts, denoted as M_low[18] - Ideal Reversal Factor M = M_high - M_low[18] - **Factor Evaluation**: The slicing process effectively distinguishes between strong and weak reversal periods, enhancing the factor's stability and predictive power[24] - **Factor Testing Results**: - RankIC: -6.06%[40] - RankICIR: -2.98[40] - Annualized long-short return: 24.26%[40] - Annualized long-short volatility: 9.38%[40] - Long-short return volatility ratio: 2.59[40] - Maximum long-short drawdown: 7.80%[40] - Monthly win rate: 78.57%[40] Factor Name: Ideal Amplitude Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measure the difference in amplitude information between high and low price states of stocks[78] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Retrieve past 20 days of data for selected stocks[80] - Calculate the daily amplitude (highest price/lowest price - 1)[80] - Calculate the average amplitude for the 25% of days with the highest closing prices, denoted as Amplitude_high[80] - Calculate the average amplitude for the 25% of days with the lowest closing prices, denoted as Amplitude_low[80] - Ideal Amplitude Factor = Amplitude_high - Amplitude_low[80] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures the difference in amplitude information between high and low price states, providing a stable and predictive measure[24] - **Factor Testing Results**: - RankIC: -7.00%[40] - RankICIR: -3.47[40] - Annualized long-short return: 21.02%[40] - Annualized long-short volatility: 10.53%[40] - Long-short return volatility ratio: 2.00[40] - Maximum long-short drawdown: 17.67%[40] - Monthly win rate: 76.98%[40] Factor Name: Active Buy-Sell Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measure retail investors' trading behavior in a declining market environment[79] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Retrieve past 20 days of data for selected stocks[79] - Calculate the daily stock price change and small order inflow intensity[79] - Formula for small order inflow intensity: $ \frac{\text{Active Buy Amount (small orders)} - \text{Active Sell Amount (small orders)}}{\text{Active Buy Amount (small orders)} + \text{Active Sell Amount (small orders)}} $[79] - Calculate the average small order inflow intensity for the 25% of days with the lowest closing prices to obtain the Active Buy-Sell Factor[79] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures retail investors' trading behavior in a declining market, providing a stable and predictive measure[24] - **Factor Testing Results**: - RankIC: -3.39%[40] - RankICIR: -1.27[40] - Annualized long-short return: 10.20%[40] - Annualized long-short volatility: 12.57%[40] - Long-short return volatility ratio: 0.81[40] - Maximum long-short drawdown: 25.26%[40] - Monthly win rate: 70.63%[40] Factor Backtesting Results DBD-GRU Model Factors - **Ideal Amplitude-DBD**: - RankIC: -10.33%[47] - RankICIR: -3.68[47] - Annualized long-short return: 34.31%[52] - Annualized long-short volatility: 15.17%[52] - Long-short return volatility ratio: 2.26[52] - Maximum long-short drawdown: 17.98%[52] - Monthly win rate: 76.98%[52] - **Ideal Reversal-DBD**: - RankIC: -10.31%[47] - RankICIR: -3.57[47] - Annualized long-short return: 37.62%[52] - Annualized long-short volatility: 12.55%[52] - Long-short return volatility ratio: 3.00[52] - Maximum long-short drawdown: 8.96%[52] - Monthly win rate: 80.95%[52] - **Active Buy-Sell-DBD**: - RankIC: -9.81%[47] - RankICIR: -3.63[47] - Annualized long-short return: 33.33%[52] - Annualized long-short volatility: 13.32%[52] - Long-short return volatility ratio: 2.50[52] - Maximum long-short drawdown: 13.82%[52] - Monthly win rate: 75.40%[52] DBD-Combine Factor - **Performance in Major Broad-Based Indices**: - **CSI 300**: - RankIC: -5.76%[63] - RankICIR: -1.87[61] - Annualized long-short return: 14.9%[63] - Annualized excess return: 7.64%[67] - Excess IR: 1.84[61] - Maximum excess drawdown: 3.37%[61] - **CSI 500**: - RankIC: -7.40%[68] - RankICIR: -2.58[65] - Annualized long-short return: 17.5%[69] - Annualized excess return: 7.23%[70] - Excess IR: 1.37[65] - Maximum excess drawdown: 6.43%[65] - **CSI 1000**: - RankIC: -9.84%[75] - RankICIR: -3.48[71] - Annualized long-short return: 30.8%[72] - Annualized excess return: 11.8%[76] - Excess IR: 2.21[71] - Maximum excess drawdown: 3.94%[71]

Revenue Performance - In June, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 18,943 billion, a year-on-year decline of 0.3%[2] - Tax revenue showed marginal improvement, growing by 1% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue decreased by 3.7%[2] - Corporate income tax and consumption tax saw marginal increases, with corporate income tax benefiting from a low base effect[2] Expenditure Trends - Public fiscal expenditure in June was CNY 28,318 billion, growing by only 0.4% year-on-year, down from 2.6% in the previous month[3] - Cumulative expenditure growth for the first half of the year was 3.4%, below the annual target of 4%[3] - Expenditure on science and technology increased by 18%, while infrastructure spending continued to decline, with transportation spending down by 13%[3] Government Fund Dynamics - Government fund revenue in June was CNY 3,959 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, marking a significant recovery[4] - Land sales revenue rose by 22% year-on-year, contributing to the improved government fund revenue[4] - Government fund expenditure surged by 79% year-on-year in June, driven by accelerated issuance of special bonds[5] Fiscal Deficit Insights - The broad fiscal deficit has widened, but the gap between actual revenue and budgeted revenue has narrowed effectively[6] - The potential fiscal gap for the year is estimated to be no more than CNY 3,000 billion if current revenue growth is maintained[6] - There is a risk of further widening fiscal gaps if revenue growth does not sustain the levels seen in the first half of the year[7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a moderate recovery in the beauty and cosmetics sector, with a notable performance in hair care and color cosmetics, indicating a stable growth trajectory [7][35] - The medical aesthetics sector is expected to gain momentum from the introduction of innovative products, particularly in the field of collagen and hair loss treatments [30][46] Summary by Sections Market Review - In June, the beauty and personal care index fell by 3.61%, ranking 31st among all primary industries, underperforming the market [14] - The medical aesthetics sector saw significant stock price increases for companies like Meili Tianyuan Medical Health (+64.4%), Yonghe Medical (+50.0%), and Sihuan Pharmaceutical (+13.3%) [20][26] - For the first half of 2025, the medical aesthetics sector recorded substantial gains, with Jinbo Biological (+124.6%), Yonghe Medical (+83.3%), and Meili Tianyuan Medical Health (+69.9%) leading the way [20][26] Medical Aesthetics - Jinbo Biological launched the world's first recombinant type III humanized collagen gel, HiveCOL, which is expected to revolutionize tissue regeneration [30] - Sihuan Pharmaceutical introduced new products targeting skin quality improvement and contour shaping, while Kedi's external finasteride spray received approval, marking a significant advancement in hair loss treatment [31][32] Cosmetics - The retail sales of cosmetics in the first half of 2025 reached 229.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [35] - Online sales of cosmetics amounted to 267.83 billion yuan, growing by 11.1%, while offline sales decreased by 4.1% to 228.44 billion yuan [36] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of domestic brands in the online market, particularly on platforms like Douyin and Tmall [40][43] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading domestic beauty brands that are expected to gain market share, particularly in high-growth segments [46][47] - Key recommendations include companies like Shangmei Co., Ltd., Maogeping, and Pulaia, which are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing trends in the beauty market [50]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (看好) for the defense and military industry, marking the first rating of its kind [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the ongoing geopolitical complexities, such as the recent conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, are likely to sustain military trade benefits, leading to an increase in the valuation of the military industry [3]. - China's share in the international arms trade market is expected to continue rising, with a reported market share of 5.8% from 2019 to 2023, as the demand for advanced weaponry remains high [4]. - Sub-sectors such as unmanned equipment and rocket artillery are anticipated to benefit significantly from international conflicts and military trade orders, with specific companies identified as potential beneficiaries [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The defense and military industry is experiencing a favorable outlook due to escalating geopolitical tensions and increased military spending [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The international transfer of major weapons has increased by 3.2% from 2019 to 2023 compared to the previous five-year period, indicating a robust demand for military equipment [4]. Investment Opportunities - Key beneficiaries in the unmanned equipment sector include companies like Jingpin Special Equipment and Aerospace Rainbow, while ammunition-related companies such as Gaode Infrared and Guangdong Hongda are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [5].

Group 1 - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" market phase, driven by high-level policies and clean industry chips, which are expected to support a rebound in certain sectors [8][10][11] - The chemical industry, particularly polyester filament, is identified as a leader in the "anti-involution" movement, with production capacity expansion reaching its peak and profit margins expected to improve [12][14] - The organic silicon industry is also noted for its recovery potential due to improved supply-demand dynamics and industry self-discipline, with limited new capacity expected in the near future [18][21] Group 2 - The report discusses Google's cloud services, which exceeded revenue expectations, indicating strong growth driven by AI investments, and an increase in capital expenditure for 2025 [24][25] - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a decline in fund allocation, with a significant reduction in holdings in traditional sectors like liquor, suggesting a cautious market outlook [29][30] - The medical sector, particularly the Chinese medicine chain Solidarity Hall, is positioned for growth due to favorable policies and increasing demand, with projected profit growth in the coming years [36][38] Group 3 - The home appliance sector, represented by companies like TCL and Zhao Chi, is expected to see profit improvements driven by high-value Mini LED products and production efficiency enhancements in Vietnam [40][46] - The non-ferrous metals industry, particularly Zhongfu Industrial, is anticipated to benefit from cost optimization and increased production capacity, leading to improved profitability [42][43] - The overseas market, particularly for Quan Feng Holdings, is showing resilience with expected profit growth due to strategic production relocation and favorable market conditions [51][52]

2025 年 07 月 24 日 策略研究团队 "反内卷"的行情阶段，及后续展望 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） 简宇涵（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn jianyuhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525050005 深度解析"反内卷"行情的持续性 反内卷行情持续发酵存在三大原因：①反内卷政策层级高、频次高，深受市场关 注；背后反映的是高层定调，随后经历了三轮的演变及层层加码。②反内卷行业筹 码干净，存在较强回补动力；从基金二季报角度来看，典型的反内卷行业，基金 配置比例仍然低于自由流通市值比例，筹码出清干净。③当前市场风险偏好高位， 对利好敏感；当前，政策稳定预期、市场资金承载力增强、投资者活跃度提升， 以及主题主线的持续明确，正逐步成为驱动 A 股走强的核心动因。以上三点也 构成了反内卷的三大优势，也解释了近期反内卷行情能持续发酵的原因。 然而，市场对反内卷仍然存疑：是否存在强有力的财政支持？狭义的"反内卷" 行情更多可以理解为一种收缩型政策，无论对总量还是结构，带来的效果更容易 是"触底"，而非"反转"。在高质量发展的时代背景下，较难出现一次性的花大 价钱办大事，反内卷 ...

行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 化学纤维 沪深300 化学纤维 2025 年 07 月 24 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 涤纶长丝扩产周期已到尾声，新增产能集中于头部，龙头集中度再提升 涤纶长丝行业已告别高速扩产期，2014-2023 年行业产能从 2103 万吨增至 4128 万 吨，年均复合增长率达 7.78%；而 2024 年新增产能仅 97 万吨，同比增速骤降至 2.35%， 2025 年 155 万吨新增产能规划也仅由桐昆股份、新凤鸣两大龙头释放，且投产节奏 有序。近两年行业集中度也因此进一步提升，CR6 从 2023 年的 85%左右升至 2024 年的 87%，龙头企业对行业的主导能力进一步增强。展望 2026 年，行业潜在新增产 能依旧主要集中在桐昆股份和新凤鸣两大龙头。我们长期坚定看好，涤纶长丝行业 格局优化，盈利能力有望持续修复。 涤纶长丝下游纺服需求稳健，直接出口增长明显，带动长丝需求稳中向上 全球纺织服装需求稳健，对涤纶长丝需求起到良好支撑作用。国内方面，2025 年 1-6 月 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the peak of capacity expansion in the organic silicon industry has passed, leading to a gradual improvement in the supply-demand balance. The short-term disruptions in supply may facilitate a recovery in profitability for organic silicon [4][17][27] - Domestic demand for organic silicon is steadily increasing, driven by applications in construction, electronics, manufacturing, and textiles. The report anticipates significant contributions from the renewable energy sector [5][28][38] - The report emphasizes the continuous growth of organic silicon exports, with a projected year-on-year increase of 34.2% in 2024 [5][42] Summary by Sections 1. Organic Silicon: Product Performance and Applications - Organic silicon compounds exhibit excellent adhesive and sealing properties, temperature resistance, and weather resistance, making them suitable for various end-use applications [12][13] 2. Supply Side: Capacity Expansion Peak Passed - The organic silicon industry saw significant capacity additions from 2022 to 2024, with annual increases of 775,000 tons, 70,000 tons, and 720,000 tons, respectively. The growth rates were 41%, 3%, and 26% [4][17] - As of the end of 2024, the total capacity of the domestic organic silicon industry is expected to reach 3.44 million tons, with a concentration ratio (CR5) of 60% [17][20] 3. Demand Side: Steady Growth in Domestic and Export Markets - The apparent consumption of domestic organic silicon DMC is projected to grow from 893,200 tons in 2017 to 1,816,400 tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 10.7% [5][28] - The report notes that the construction sector, electronics, manufacturing, and textiles will account for 25.2%, 23.0%, 14.6%, and 11.5% of organic silicon DMC consumption in 2024, respectively [36] 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Hoshine Silicon Industry and Xingfa Group, while suggesting that companies like Sanyou Chemical, Xin'an Chemical, Dongyue Silicon Material, and Luxi Chemical may benefit from the industry's recovery [6][45]