投资评级：看好（维持） ——行业点评报告 数据来源：聚源 -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 58% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 通信 沪深300 行 业 研 究 2025 年 07 月 24 日 相关研究报告 《海外 AI 或估值提升，国内 AI 迎基 本面拐点—行业周报》-2025.7.20 《英伟达将恢复 H20 在华销售，核心 利 好 AIDC 链 — 行 业 点 评报 告 》 -2025.7.15 《算力公司业绩亮眼，Grok-4 发布， AWS 推出 GB200 UltraServers，看好 全 球 AIDC 产 业 链 — 行 业周 报 》 -2025.7.13 蒋颖（分析师） 陈光毅（联系人） jiangying@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523120003 谷歌云营收超预期，上调 2025 年资本开支 2025 年 7 月 14 日，谷歌母公司 Alphabet 公布第二季度财报，谷歌云第二季度营 收为 136 亿美元，同比增长 32%，高于市场预期的 131 亿美元，我们认为 AI 对 于谷歌云的助力持续显现。Alphabet 表示，2025 年全年资 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector has seen a significant decline in fund allocation, with the configuration ratio dropping from 9.8% in Q1 2025 to 8.0% in Q2 2025, marking a new low since 2020 [3][12] - The decline in fund allocation is primarily attributed to the impact of the alcohol ban, which has further contracted consumption scenarios, particularly in the traditional liquor sector [5][6] - Despite the current pessimism, there is an expectation of a market style switch in July, which may lead to some capital returning to the sector [5][13] Summary by Sections Fund Allocation Trends - In Q2 2025, the allocation ratio for food and beverage in active equity funds decreased to 5.6%, down from 8.1% in Q1 2025, indicating a significant reduction in food and beverage investments [5][12] - The proportion of funds heavily invested in liquor dropped from 6.57% in Q1 2025 to 3.97% in Q2 2025, reflecting a broad reduction in liquor company holdings [4][20] - The overall market fund allocation for liquor also fell from 8.5% to 6.8% during the same period [20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a strategic focus on the liquor sector, particularly as the market is expected to find a bottom in the second half of the year [6][33] - It is recommended to gradually build positions in leading liquor companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, which maintain high dividend yields [6][33] - For new consumption stocks, the report advises identifying high-quality companies that align with industry trends and holding them long-term, focusing on opportunities in new channels and product categories [6][34] Performance Metrics - The food and beverage sector's market value declined by 3.4% in Q2 2025, ranking 31 out of 32 sectors [13][18] - The sector's transaction amount ratio increased to 2.70%, indicating a slight recovery in trading activity despite the overall decline [13][18] - The report highlights that the majority of liquor companies experienced a decrease in fund holdings, while some consumer goods companies saw an increase in their market value [5][32]

Summary of Key Points Overall Market Perspective - The economic cycle is expected to enter an upward phase in the second half of 2025, similar to the period of 2016-2017, driven by local government debt solutions and policy digestion [4][9][10] - The market anticipates a significant upward adjustment in expectations, with current asset prices reflecting a weak pricing environment, indicating potential for stock and bond market shifts [7][10] Industry Insights - **Hydropower Construction**: The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project represents a significant opportunity for the infrastructure sector, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, expected to drive over 100 billion yuan in annual infrastructure investment [12][15] - **Chemical Industry**: The glyphosate market is poised for recovery due to supply optimization and stable demand, with a focus on reducing excessive competition within the industry [16][17] - **Real Estate and Rental Market**: The introduction of the Housing Rental Regulations aims to standardize the rental market, enhancing transparency and stability, which is expected to benefit rental companies and real estate firms [19][24] - **Agriculture**: The poultry market is currently facing price pressures due to weak demand, but a potential recovery in restaurant demand could support prices in the coming months [25][26] Company-Specific Developments - **Lizu Group**: The company has shown promising results in its IL-17A/F psoriasis treatment, outperforming the control group, indicating strong potential for future growth and profitability [31][32] - **Mise Snow Group**: The company has expanded significantly, becoming the largest beverage chain in China, with plans for further global expansion and a projected revenue growth of 25.8% in 2025 [34][35] - **Great Wall Motors**: The company reported record high earnings in Q2 2025, driven by strong sales across its brands, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment, indicating robust growth prospects [38][39]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project marks a significant opportunity for the infrastructure sector, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, which is five times the investment of the Three Gorges Dam project [5][7] - The project is expected to have a total installed capacity of 60 million kilowatts, accounting for 1.8% of the national cumulative installed capacity and 13.8% of the hydropower installed capacity in 2024 [7] - The project will not only contribute to direct power generation but is also anticipated to stimulate comprehensive economic upgrades in Tibet and potentially connect with the power grid of South Asian countries in the future [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The traditional energy sector in China is maintaining stable development, with major power generation enterprises completing investments of 1,168.7 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [7] - The hydropower installed capacity reached approximately 440 million kilowatts in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [7] Project Details - The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project will utilize a five-level cascade development model, leveraging a natural drop of 2,230 meters, with a water utilization rate exceeding 85% [7] - The overall construction period of the project is expected to exceed 10 years, with annual infrastructure investments exceeding 100 billion yuan, representing 0.71% of the total broad infrastructure investment in 2024 [7] Investment Recommendations - Recommended investment targets include leading domestic hydropower construction companies such as China Power Construction and China Energy Engineering, which possess advanced technology in plateau hydropower and ultra-high voltage supporting fields [8] - Additionally, major transportation infrastructure companies like China Communications Construction and Tunnel Corporation are highlighted for their advantages in large-scale infrastructure and complex geological conditions [8]

Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Overweight" for the dairy industry, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [65]. Core Insights - The dairy industry is experiencing a cyclical downturn in fresh milk prices, with a potential turning point expected in 2025. The price of fresh milk reached a low of 3.04 yuan/kg in July 2025, following a peak of 4.38 yuan/kg in August 2021. This cycle typically spans approximately eight years [21][30]. - The overall production of dairy products in China has increased from 26.518 million tons in 2014 to 29.618 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.11% [32][33]. - The report highlights a trend of consolidation in the dairy supply chain, with larger farms increasingly dominating the market. The number of farms with over 1,000 head of cattle has risen to 12% by 2022 [26][30]. Summary by Sections Dairy Industry Overview - The dairy industry has a long supply chain, including feed, dairy farming, processing, and retail. Major dairy companies are concentrated in regions such as Northwest, North China, and East China, particularly in Inner Mongolia and Zhejiang [3][11][17]. Fresh Milk Price Cycle - The fresh milk price cycle has shown a pattern of peaks and troughs approximately every eight years. The last peak was in February 2014 at 4.27 yuan/kg, followed by a decline that stabilized around 3.4 yuan/kg until 2015. The current cycle began in 2018, peaking in 2021 and declining to 3.04 yuan/kg by July 2025 [21][28][30]. Companies in the Dairy Sector - The report identifies 17 dairy-related companies listed on the New Third Board and the Beijing Stock Exchange. Notable companies include Knight Dairy, Jule Dairy, and Southern Dairy, with Knight Dairy being a listed entity and others in the process of listing [4][35]. - Knight Dairy has shown a steady revenue growth trend, with a revenue of 3.70 billion yuan in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 55.88%. However, its net profit has declined by 38.70% [4][39]. - Jule Dairy, known for its "Suanle Milk" product, reported a revenue of 1.641 billion yuan in 2024, a 5.06% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 232 million yuan, up 18.35% [5][52]. - Southern Dairy, recognized as a key enterprise in Guizhou, achieved a revenue of 1.817 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 0.65% growth, with a net profit of 209 million yuan, up 4.36% [6][59].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Market Expectation Gap Correction, Potential Switch in Stock-Bond Allocation" [2] - Report Date: July 23, 2025 - Research Team: Fixed Income Research Team - Analysts: Chen Xi, Liu Wei Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - In the second half of 2025, the economic cycle is in an upward phase, similar to 2016 - 2017, in the second half of the L-shaped cycle [5]. - The key to the market rally is the correction of the expectation gap. Currently, the pricing in the stock, bond, and commodity markets is weak, and the upward correction of the market expectation gap may drive the market up [6]. - With the economic expectation correction, there may be a switch between stocks and bonds. The bond yield and the stock market are expected to rise [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Economic Upward Trend in H2 2025 - The local debt resolution plan launched in November 2024 may drive the economy to recover continuously, as past debt rectification periods were followed by economic rebounds [5]. - After the digestion of policies from 2021 - September 2024 and structural transformation, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock has been rising since November 2024 [5]. - The supply - side anti - involution measure proposed on July 1, 2025, is conducive to the recovery of the PPI year - on - year rate, similar to the 2015 supply - side reform [5]. Market Expectation Gap and Its Impact - As of July 22, 2025, the equity risk premium rate of the Wind All - A Index was 3.14%, at the 72.1% percentile in the past 10 years; the 10 - year Treasury yield was 1.69%, at the 4.0% percentile in the past 10 years; the Nanhua Industrial Products Index was at the 43.2% percentile from 2022 to the present, indicating weak pricing in the market [6]. - The market's weak pricing is based on the view that the full - year GDP target of 5.0% is easy to achieve (with H1 GDP growth at 5.3%), leading to low expectations for H2 policies. However, there is a significant expectation gap in the market's pricing of the economic recovery [6]. - The all - around policies from July 2025 are expected to gradually realize the market's expectation of economic recovery, forming a positive feedback loop for market confidence and expectations [7]. Stock - Bond Switch - The economy is similar to that in 2016 - 2017, in the second half of the L - shaped cycle. The economic growth rate in H2 2025 is not expected to decline significantly, and with the solution of structural problems, there may be a switch between stocks and bonds, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise [9].

基础化工 相关研究报告 《"反内卷"势在必行，化工行业新一 轮供给侧改革呼之欲出—化工"反内 卷"系列报告（开篇）》-2025.7.22 《反内卷政策陆续出台，石化行业稳 增长方案有望推动化工行业供给侧竞 争格局优化—行业周报》-2025.7.20 《国内反内卷持续发酵，海外多家化 工企业产能关停 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.7.13 草甘膦：供需向好，反内卷有望助力景气反转 ——化工"反内卷"系列报告（三） 基础化工 | 金益腾（分析师） | 徐正凤（分析师） | 李思佳（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | xuzhengfeng@kysec.cn | lisijia@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520020002 | 证书编号：S0790524070005 | 证书编号：S0790525070006 | 2025 年 07 月 23 日 草甘膦：供给优化、需求稳增，国内反内卷+海外供给扰动有望助力景气反转 草甘膦是最大的除草剂品种，也是全球第一大农药品种。（1）供给端：目前全球 草甘膦产能约 118 万吨/年，其中海 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The release of the "Housing Rental Regulations" marks a new phase of standardization in China's housing rental market, aiming to regulate rental activities and promote a dual housing system of renting and purchasing [5][9] - The regulations enhance market transparency and stability, benefiting rental enterprises and agencies by promoting orderly competition [9] Summary by Sections Housing Rental Regulations - The regulations prohibit the separate rental of non-residential spaces and require compliance with local government standards for per capita living space, addressing safety concerns related to shared housing [6] - Mandatory real-name signing and contract filing are enforced, with clear stipulations on deposit deductions and prohibitions against landlords entering tenants' rooms without consent [6] - Rental enterprises must have sufficient capital and management capabilities, with penalties for false advertising and requirements for maintaining rental archives [7] Transparency in Brokerage Services - Brokerage agencies must verify property information before listing and are prohibited from providing services for unsafe or non-compliant housing [8] - Real estate agents must be registered and cannot work for multiple agencies simultaneously, with clear pricing for services [8] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include companies benefiting from increasing rental market penetration and strong credit real estate firms that understand customer needs [9] - Companies that drive both residential and commercial real estate growth, as well as those with high-quality property management services, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has achieved superior efficacy in the IL-17A/F head-to-head III phase clinical trial for psoriasis, demonstrating a PASI 100 response rate of 49.5% compared to 40.2% for the control group [3] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory with projected net profits of 2.276 billion, 2.521 billion, and 2.801 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.52, 2.79, and 3.10 yuan per share [3][4] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 17.4, 15.7, and 14.2 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, indicating a favorable valuation [3] Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 12.430 billion yuan in 2023, with a slight decline expected in 2024 to 11.812 billion yuan, followed by a recovery to 12.247 billion yuan in 2025 [6] - The gross margin is projected to be 64.1% in 2023, slightly decreasing to 62.9% in 2025, while the net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 19.5% for 2025 [6][8] - Return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 14.7% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 15.0% by 2027 [6][8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - The economic cycle in the second half of 2025 is in an upward phase, and the current situation is similar to that from 2016 - 2017, in the second half of the L - shaped curve [2] - The upward correction of market expectation differences may drive the market to rise, and the current asset prices in the stock, bond, and commodity markets are all priced weakly [5] - In the context of the correction of economic expectations, there is a possibility of a stock - bond switch, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise [7] Group 3: Summary by Related Directory 2025 Economic Situation and Factors Driving Recovery - The local debt resolution plan in November 2024 may promote continuous economic recovery, as debt rectification every about 5 years usually leads to economic rebound after completion [2] - The completion of policy digestion since November 2024 has led to a continuous rebound in the growth rate of social financing stock [3] - The supply - side anti - involution policy proposed on July 1, 2025, is similar to the 2015 supply - side reform and is conducive to the rebound of PPI year - on - year [3] Market Expectation Difference and Its Impact - The economic recovery in the second half of 2025 may not be as significant as that in 2016 - 2017, but there is a large upward space in market expectations, and the upward correction of expectation differences may drive the market to rise [4][5] - As of July 22, 2025, the equity risk premium rate of Wind All A was 3.14%, at the 72.1% historical quantile in the past 10 years; the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 1.69%, at the 4.0% historical quantile in the past 10 years; the Nanhua Industrial Products Index was at the 43.2% historical quantile since 2022, indicating that asset prices are priced weakly [5] - The market's weak pricing logic is that the pressure to achieve the annual GDP target is not large, and the policy expectation for the second half of the year is low. However, there is an obvious expectation difference in the market's pricing of the expected economic recovery [5] Stock - Bond Switch in the Context of Economic Expectation Correction - The current economic situation is similar to that from 2016 - 2017, having ended the downward phase and entering a stabilization stage, with demand remaining stable. Policy is addressing structural issues to promote the stabilization of real estate and the normalization of inflation [7] - Although the economic recovery in the second half of 2025 may not be as significant as that in 2016 - 2017, in the context of the correction of economic expectations, there is a possibility of a stock - bond switch, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise [7]