数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 房地产 沪深300 房地产 行 业 研 究 房地产 2025 年 06 月 15 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 相关研究报告 《新房成交面积同环比下降，城市更 新示范城市扩容 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.6.8 《城市更新示范城市扩容，去库存进 程有望提速 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.6.6 《"好房子"系列专题一：四代宅崛起， 政策红利与产品创新驱动居住升级— 行业深度报告》-2025.6.4 | 新房二手房成交面积环比增长，广州全面取消限购限 | | --- | 售 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S0790124070064 | 核心观点：新房二手房成交面 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that after a rapid increase in pig slaughtering, pig prices have stabilized, with expectations of limited downward pressure in the short term. The overall supply of pigs is entering a contraction phase, leading to an upward trend in pig prices in Q3 2025 [4][13] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a decline for four consecutive months, which may exert pressure on the CPI target for 2025. The report anticipates that policy measures will be implemented to support pig prices and mitigate their negative impact on CPI [5][21] - The investment logic for the pig industry is improving, with recommendations for companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others. The pet food sector is also highlighted for its growth potential, driven by domestic brands [6][33] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The average price of pigs in China as of June 13, 2025, is 14.02 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 4.73 yuan/kg. The report notes that the price has stabilized after a period of accelerated slaughtering [4][13] - The report discusses the impact of weather conditions, such as the "Bailu" typhoon and the rainy season in southern China, which have affected pig transportation and provided short-term support for prices [4][13] Market Performance - The agricultural sector outperformed the broader market by 1.87 percentage points during the week of June 9-13, 2025, with the agricultural index rising by 1.62% while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25% [6][36] - The pet food sector led the gains, with individual stocks such as Yuanfei Pet (+12.41%), Xiaoming Co. (+7.33%), and Shennong Group (+6.64%) showing significant increases [6][36] Price Tracking - As of June 13, 2025, the average price of pigs is 14.02 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.28% from the previous week. The average price of piglets is 32.89 yuan/kg, down 4.69% week-on-week [49][60] - The report also notes that corn and soybean meal prices have increased, with corn futures settling at 2370.00 yuan/ton, up 1.46% week-on-week, and soybean meal futures at 3048.00 yuan/ton, up 1.91% [60][64]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Focus on the investment logic of new product category expansion within the sector [3][12] - The food and beverage index declined by 4.4% from June 9 to June 13, ranking 28th among primary sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 4.1 percentage points [12][14] - The whiskey product line from Bai Run Co. has been successfully launched, catering to various consumer scenarios with different alcohol levels and flavors [3][12] - The konjac category is experiencing rapid growth in the snack food segment, driven by its health attributes [4][13] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The food and beverage index saw a decline of 4.4%, with the health products (+2.4%) and other foods (+0.0%) performing relatively well [12][14] - Bai Run Co.'s whiskey products are well-positioned in both traditional and emerging distribution channels, with optimistic sales expectations [3][12] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector underperformed the market, with a 4.4% decline, while health products and other food categories showed resilience [12][14] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, with full-fat milk powder auction prices showing a year-on-year increase of 20.0% [18][22] - Domestic fresh milk prices have decreased by 8.1% year-on-year [18][22] Alcohol Industry Data - The national white liquor price index slightly decreased by 0.18% in early June, with a year-on-year increase of 8.41% in wholesale prices [42][43] Recommended Companies - Recommended companies include Ximai Food, Yanjin Beer, and Bai Run Co. due to their strong growth potential and market positioning [5][46]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of AI applications and stablecoin investment opportunities, highlighting the release of the Doubao large model 1.6 and the Seedance 1.0 pro video generation model, which are expected to drive growth in AI applications and computing power investments [4][11] - Ant Group is actively entering the stablecoin market, with plans to establish operations in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Luxembourg, indicating a favorable environment for stablecoin investments due to supportive policies and market recognition [5][12] Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of June 9-13, 2025, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.25%, while the computer index decreased by 2.52% [4][10] AI Applications - The Doubao large model 1.6 series supports advanced capabilities such as deep thinking and multimodal understanding, achieving top-tier performance in various assessments. The Seedance 1.0 pro model has the lowest industry cost for video generation, with a daily token usage exceeding 16.4 trillion, marking a growth of over 137 times since its launch [4][11] Stablecoin Developments - Ant Group's announcement to enter the stablecoin sector aligns with the upcoming implementation of the Stablecoin Regulation in Hong Kong on August 1, 2025. The successful IPO of Circle, the first stablecoin company, has garnered significant market attention [5][12] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in AI applications include Kingsoft Office, iFlytek, and others, while computing power investments suggest companies like Sugon and Inspur. For stablecoins, Longxin Group is highlighted, with several beneficiary stocks listed [6][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - SYS6010, a broad-spectrum anti-tumor drug, has shown excellent early data for NSCLC (non-small cell lung cancer) and is currently in the registration phase of clinical trials in China [6][28] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a 1.4% increase in the second week of June 2025, ranking fifth among 31 sub-industries [30][34] Summary by Sections SYS6010 Development - SYS6010 is an EGFR antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) developed by Shiyao Group, targeting multiple cancers including NSCLC, breast cancer, and colorectal cancer [14][19] - As of June 2025, SYS6010 has entered the registration phase of clinical trials in China for NSCLC and has received multiple designations from the FDA and NMPA [6][28] - SYS6010 has demonstrated a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 7.6 months in patients previously treated with EGFR TKI and platinum-based chemotherapy [28] Market Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw a 1.4% increase in the second week of June 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.66 percentage points [30][34] - The medical research outsourcing sub-sector experienced the highest growth at 4.76%, while the vaccine sector faced the largest decline at 3.34% [34] Clinical Trial Insights - SYS6010 is the first EGFR ADC to enter the registration phase for lung cancer globally, with promising early data presented at the 2025 AACR conference [28] - The drug has been recognized for its potential in treating EGFR TKI-resistant NSCLC patients, addressing a significant unmet medical need in this patient population [25][28]

Group 1 - Major automotive companies have committed to significantly shorten payment terms to suppliers, ensuring payments are made within 60 days, which is a response to the new regulations aimed at protecting small and medium enterprises [10][11][14] - The average accounts receivable turnover days for companies in the automotive supply chain, such as Beiterui and Hechang Polymer, was 160 days in Q1 2025, indicating a long collection cycle that the new payment terms aim to alleviate [16][17] - The automotive industry is working towards establishing a more transparent and fair cooperation mechanism between automakers and suppliers, promoting a healthier and more sustainable supply chain ecosystem [14][16] Group 2 - The chemical new materials sector on the North Exchange saw a weekly increase of 3.04%, outperforming other sectors, with non-metal materials and textile manufacturing leading the gains [19][21] - Key stocks in the chemical new materials sector, such as Keli Co. and Benlang New Materials, experienced significant weekly gains of 37.78% and 34.19% respectively, indicating strong market performance [25][28] - The price trends for various chemical products showed a mixed performance, with Brent crude oil prices rising by 11.7% while MDI and TDI prices decreased by 2.0% and 8.0% respectively [30][31]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of AI applications and models, particularly from ByteDance and Oracle, indicating a strong growth trajectory in the AI computing and application sectors [10][20] - The report emphasizes the robust performance of Oracle's cloud business, with expectations for significant revenue growth in the upcoming fiscal year [18][19] - The report identifies seven key industry directions for investment, including AIDC infrastructure, IT equipment, network devices, cloud computing, AI applications, satellite internet, and 6G [20][21][22][27] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Outlook - ByteDance's Force Conference showcased significant advancements in AI models, with daily token usage exceeding 16.4 trillion, marking a 137-fold increase since its launch [13][15] - OpenAI's release of the o3-pro model enhances complex reasoning capabilities, further driving demand for AI computing [16][17] - Oracle's fourth fiscal quarter results exceeded expectations, with cloud infrastructure revenue projected to grow over 70% in the next fiscal year [18][19] 2. Communication Data Tracking - As of April 2025, China has 4.439 million 5G base stations, with a net increase of 188,000 from the end of 2024 [29] - The number of 5G mobile phone users reached 1.081 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.6% [29] - 5G mobile phone shipments totaled 19.889 million units, accounting for 79.4% of total shipments, although this represents a 1.7% year-on-year decline [29] 3. Operator Performance - The report notes strong growth in the cloud revenue of major telecom operators, with China Mobile's cloud revenue reaching 100.4 billion yuan, a 20.4% increase year-on-year [43] - The average revenue per user (ARPU) for China Mobile remained stable at 48.5 yuan, while China Telecom's ARPU slightly increased to 45.6 yuan [43][46]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Views - The non-bank financial sector is expected to benefit from the recovery of public fund benchmarks, while the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is likely to continue benefiting from the expansion of both asset and funding sides [3][4] - The brokerage sector has seen a rebound in trading volume, with daily average stock fund transaction amounting to 1.59 trillion, a week-on-week increase of 11.4% [3] - The insurance sector is allowed to defer the implementation of new accounting standards for certain non-listed insurance companies, which is expected to ease the transition costs [4] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Sector - The sector is anticipated to benefit from the recovery of public fund benchmarks and the expansion of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3] - The report highlights the steady growth in profitability and high dividend yields of Jiangsu Jinzu [3] Brokerage Sector - Trading volume has improved, with a daily average stock fund transaction of 1.59 trillion, reflecting a 11.4% week-on-week increase [3] - The sector's valuation and institutional holdings are at low levels, with macro measures supporting the stock market [3] Insurance Sector - The Ministry of Finance and the Financial Regulatory Authority have allowed certain non-listed insurance companies to defer the new accounting standards, which will reduce the difficulty and cost of switching [4] - The insurance sector is expected to see an increase in new business value (NBV) growth in the second half of the year, despite a decline compared to 2024 [4] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Jiangsu Jinzu, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and China Pacific Insurance [5] - Beneficiary stocks include Guosen Securities, Jiufang Zhitu Holdings, and China Galaxy [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The implementation of urban renewal policies across multiple provinces is expected to bring certainty in revenue growth for the construction materials sector. Notable projects include approximately 600 urban renewal key areas in Sichuan and 1,459 old residential area renovations in Henan for 2025 [3][4] - Recommended companies in the consumer building materials segment include Sankeshu (channel penetration and retail expansion), Dongfang Yuhong (waterproofing leader with optimized operational structure), Weixing New Materials (high-quality operations with a significant retail business), and Jianlang Wujin. Beneficiary stocks include Beixin Building Materials (gypsum board leader with diversified expansion into coatings and waterproofing) [3] - The cement sector is expected to benefit from the National Development and Reform Commission's energy-saving and carbon reduction action plan, which aims to control cement clinker capacity at around 1.8 billion tons by the end of 2025 [3] - The glass fiber sector is seeing increased attention due to the "equal tariff" policy, which is expected to benefit leading fiberglass companies with overseas production bases [3] Market Performance - The construction materials index fell by 2.77% in the week from June 9 to June 13, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.51 percentage points. Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index decreased by 3.58%, while the construction materials index dropped by 7.35% [4][12] - The average PE ratio for the construction materials sector is 25.55 times, ranking it 16th lowest among all A-share industries, while the PB ratio is 1.08 times, ranking it 5th lowest [18][22] Cement Sector - As of June 13, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement nationwide is 304.74 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.78%. The price trends vary by region, with Northeast China seeing a significant increase of 17.45% [22][25] - The clinker inventory ratio reached 62.24%, up by 0.43 percentage points from the previous month [23] Glass Sector - The average price of float glass as of June 13, 2025, is 1,218.00 yuan/ton, down by 46.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.64%. The inventory of float glass increased by 340,000 weight boxes, reflecting a growth of 0.57% [74][76] - The average price of photovoltaic glass is 127.30 yuan/weight box, down by 0.43 yuan/weight box, a decline of 0.34% [81]

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Growth - In May, the social financing scale increased by CNY 2.2894 trillion, up CNY 227.1 billion year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate of 8.7%[4] - New RMB loans in May amounted to CNY 596 billion, a decrease of CNY 223.7 billion year-on-year, indicating insufficient effective demand[4] - The increase in credit in May was CNY 620 billion, which is CNY 330 billion less than the same month last year, reflecting weaker seasonal performance[3] Group 2: Government Bonds and Corporate Financing - Government bond financing in May reached CNY 1.4633 trillion, an increase of CNY 236.7 billion year-on-year, indicating sustained issuance strength[4] - Special refinancing bonds saw a net financing amount of CNY 4.261 billion, with issuance accelerating compared to the previous month[4] - Corporate bonds increased by CNY 121.1 billion year-on-year, as companies took advantage of lower financing costs since April[4] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Economic Indicators - M1 growth rate improved by 0.8 percentage points to 2.3% in May, while M2 growth rate slightly decreased to 7.9%[5] - Fiscal deposits increased by CNY 116.7 billion year-on-year, indicating a potential surplus in government revenue[5] - The overall credit expansion remains reliant on further fiscal support, as indicated by the current financial data[3]