Macro Economic Insights - The report emphasizes the need to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods to further promote consumption, as discussed in the macroeconomic weekly report [3] - The State Council meeting led by Premier Li Qiang focused on implementing policies to expand new consumption increments, highlighting the importance of artificial intelligence in developing new products and value-added services [3] Industry Insights - The upcoming implementation of the National VII emission standards is expected to create investment opportunities in exhaust after-treatment systems, with the market size projected to exceed 100 billion yuan [16][18] - The report notes that the demand for AI continues to validate, leading to an increase in computing power requirements, particularly in the technology sector [27] - The food and beverage industry is anticipated to see growth driven by a turning point in dairy supply and demand, with three major opportunities identified [27] - The coal industry is experiencing price stability, with the new long-term contracts for thermal coal remaining unchanged, indicating a steady pricing logic [22][24] Company-Specific Insights - The report highlights that Aikolan, which specializes in exhaust after-treatment products, is well-positioned to benefit from the National VII standards due to its existing technology and customer base [19] - The report mentions that the gaming sector is witnessing a surge in AI applications, with companies like Kyeong Network and Perfect World expected to benefit from this trend [29] - In the insurance sector, companies like China Life and Ping An are recommended due to their favorable outlook for the upcoming year, driven by improved asset management and a stable interest rate environment [45][47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid advancements in AI applications, particularly in gaming, advertising, and content creation, suggesting a potential golden age for AI applications [3] - The performance of major AI models, such as Google's Gemini 3 and Alibaba's Qwen3, indicates significant improvements in capabilities, which could enhance the commercialization of AI applications [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with strong cloud infrastructure and user traffic in building a closed-loop ecosystem for consumer-facing AI applications [3] Industry Data Overview - The game "Jingjie Daoming" ranks first in the iOS free game chart in mainland China, while "Jin Chan Chan Zhan" tops the iOS revenue chart [9][13] - The film "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle Chapter 1" achieved the highest box office revenue of 2.48 billion yuan for the week [24] Industry News Summary - Google's Gemini 3 and Nano Banana Pro have shown impressive performance in AI benchmarks, indicating a competitive edge in the AI model landscape [29] - The report notes the emergence of new gaming trends, such as "Micro Horror + X," which may become a long-lasting game genre [29] - The report also mentions that domestic animation IPs are breaking crowdfunding records, reflecting a growing interest in this sector [29] Company Recommendations - For AI gaming, companies like Kying Network, Giant Network, and Tencent are recommended due to their potential benefits from the upward trend in the gaming industry [3] - In AI advertising, Huimai Technology and Inertia Media are highlighted as key players, with BlueFocus and Yidian Tianxia as beneficiaries [3] - For AI content creation, companies such as Bilibili and Kuaishou are recommended, with beneficiaries including Jiecheng Co. and Zhongwen Online [3]

Emission Standards and Market Opportunities - The upcoming National 7 (国七) emission standards are expected to be the strictest environmental regulations in history, aiming for a significant reduction in pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions[3] - The National 7 standards may be released in 2027 and implemented in 2029, with significant changes for light-duty vehicles and relatively minor changes for heavy-duty vehicles[3] - The value of the exhaust after-treatment system per vehicle is projected to increase by approximately 50% compared to the National 6 (国六) standards, with catalysts, packaging, and electronic control systems accounting for over 80% of this value[4] Market Size and Growth Projections - The overall market size for exhaust after-treatment systems is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan, driven by the new standards[4] - By 2029, the market for commercial vehicles is projected to reach 610.73 thousand units, while hybrid vehicle sales are expected to grow to 721.43 thousand units[22] - The estimated market scale gain from the implementation of the National 7 standards is projected to be 1.27 billion yuan by 2029[22] Beneficiary Companies - Aikelan (艾可蓝) is positioned to benefit from the National 7 standards due to its core technologies in exhaust after-treatment products and ongoing research and development efforts[5] - Zhongzi Technology (中自科技) specializes in exhaust purification catalysts for various internal combustion engines, making it another potential beneficiary of the new standards[5] Market Performance and Trends - This week, the A-share market experienced a general decline, with small-cap indices underperforming compared to large-cap indices[6] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was 6.64 billion shares, with a total transaction value of 932.52 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease in liquidity compared to the previous week[31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the new long-term contracts for thermal coal remain unchanged, supporting a stable pricing logic [3] - Thermal coal prices have risen, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal closing at 834 CNY/ton as of November 21, remaining flat week-on-week, while the Guangzhou port price has reached 890 CNY, achieving the previously indicated profit-sharing target of 750 CNY [3][4] - The increase in thermal coal prices is attributed to a combination of supply contraction and a surge in demand due to colder weather in northern regions [4] - The report outlines a four-step process for the upward movement of thermal coal prices, including the restoration of central and local long-term contracts, reaching a profit-sharing line for coal and power companies, and approaching the breakeven point for power plants [4][13] - The report predicts that the price of thermal coal will range between 800 CNY and 860 CNY, with a breakeven point at 860 CNY [4][13] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal Market - As of November 21, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 834 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [17] - The Guangzhou port price for thermal coal has increased to 890 CNY/ton, achieving the profit-sharing target [3][17] - The report notes a significant increase in port inventories and a rise in daily consumption at coastal power plants [17][18] Coking Coal Market - The price of coking coal at the Jing Tang port is reported at 1780 CNY/ton, down from 1860 CNY/ton [18] - The report highlights a strong correlation between coking coal prices and thermal coal prices, with a current ratio of 2.4 times [4][13] - The report suggests that the target prices for coking coal, based on the thermal coal price movements, are set at 1608 CNY, 1680 CNY, 1800 CNY, and 2064 CNY [4][13] Investment Recommendations - The report identifies four main investment lines in the coal sector: 1. Cyclical logic: Companies like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal 2. Dividend logic: Companies such as China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Companies like Shenhua Holdings and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic: Companies such as Xinji Energy and Guanghui Energy [5][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in the tourism sector, with Ctrip achieving a revenue of 18.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.5% [17] - The report indicates a structural shift in the toy industry, with a net closure of 9 stores in October 2025, leading to a total of 3,967 stores [29] - The restaurant industry is experiencing a contraction in tea supply while coffee continues to grow, with Haidilao focusing on increasing its takeout sales [36] Summary by Sections Ctrip Performance - Ctrip's Q3 2025 revenue reached 18.37 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.5% [17] - The adjusted EBITDA for Ctrip was 6.35 billion yuan, up 11.7% year-on-year [22] - The revenue breakdown shows ticketing, accommodation, vacation, and business travel management growing by 11.6%, 18.3%, 3.1%, and 15.2% respectively [21] Toy Industry - As of October 2025, the number of offline toy stores in China was 3,967, with a net decrease of 9 stores [29] - The average store efficiency for toy brands increased by 10% year-on-year, with top brands like Pop Mart showing significant growth [31] Restaurant Industry - The tea beverage sector is entering a contraction phase, while the coffee sector is accelerating [36] - As of October 2025, the average monthly store efficiency for the tea industry was 212,400 yuan, a 5.8% increase year-on-year [39] - The coffee industry saw a net increase of 5,600 stores, with an average monthly store efficiency of 289,000 yuan, up 1.2% year-on-year [39]

Group 1 - The average first-day increase of new stocks listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) in 2025 is 364%, indicating a strong market performance for newly listed companies [2][36][35] - As of November 21, 2025, a total of 35 companies have passed the review process, with 22 companies listed, suggesting an increase in the number of new listings expected in 2026 [12][41] - The average net profit of companies queued for listing in 2024 is 99.34 million, with 157 companies (92.90%) having a net profit exceeding 50 million, reflecting high-quality companies in the pipeline [31][32] Group 2 - The average maximum subscription limit for online applications in the BSE is 10.46 million, with a significant increase in the subscription threshold starting from the third quarter of 2025 [25][20] - The average fundraising amount per company listed in 2025 is 250 million, which is a 22.92% increase compared to 2024, indicating a growing capital market [28][29] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the BSE is reported at 44.22X, with specific sectors such as high-end equipment and information technology showing varied P/E ratios [3][19] Group 3 - The expected average return on new stock subscriptions in 2026 is projected to be between 3.00% and 4.50%, assuming an average return rate of 300% and a subscription rate of 0.02%-0.03% [37][44] - The first-day price increase for the latest listed companies, such as Beikang Detection and Dapeng Industry, reached 1211.11% and 295.52%, respectively, showcasing the potential for high returns [36][2] - The BSE's market performance is characterized by a significant drop in the North Certificate 50 index, which fell by 9.04%, indicating a volatile market environment [3][19]

Domestic Macro Policy - The Chinese government is focusing on enhancing the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand to further promote consumption, with a strategic emphasis on the "Two Heavy" construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan period[2] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has recommended 105 infrastructure REITs projects, with a total fund issuance of 207 billion yuan, expected to drive over 1 trillion yuan in new project investments[12] - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes improving the effectiveness of fiscal policy and macroeconomic regulation to better promote high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period[14] Infrastructure and Industry Policy - By 2030, a multi-level and efficient renewable energy consumption and regulation system is expected to be established, with new electricity demand primarily met by new renewable energy generation[3] - As of October 29, 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools have been fully deployed, supporting key areas of private investment projects[12] Real Estate Policy - Policies are being implemented to accelerate the construction of quality housing and promote urban renewal actions across various cities, including Shanghai and Chengdu[16] Financial Regulation - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) announced a merger with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities through a share swap, aiming to enhance its capabilities in the investment banking sector[18] Overseas Macro Policy - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has increased to approximately 70%, with significant discussions among officials regarding the need for further rate adjustments[23] - The U.S. government has ended its shutdown, which had significant economic implications, with losses estimated at 1.5 trillion yuan[26] Risk Warning - There is a persistent divergence in domestic and foreign monetary policies, with domestic policy execution potentially falling short of expectations[29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The REITs market is expected to continue to offer good investment opportunities due to the ongoing "asset shortage" logic, supported by policy strength and expectations of social security and pension funds entering the market [4][5] - The issuance market remains active, with 11 REITs funds waiting to be listed, indicating a robust market environment [55] Market Overview - As of the 47th week of 2025, the CSI REITs (closing) index was 810.2, up 5.82% year-on-year but down 0.97% month-on-month; the CSI REITs total return index was 1041.16, up 11.84% year-on-year but down 0.89% month-on-month [4][15][19] - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs (closing) index has increased by 7.11%, while the CSI 300 index has risen by 29.8%, resulting in an excess return of -22.69% [15][19] Trading Activity - In the 47th week, the trading volume of the REITs market reached 557 million shares, a year-on-year increase of 13.21%, with a trading value of 2.375 billion yuan, up 23.89% year-on-year [4][26][30] - The turnover rate for the week was 2.21%, down 0.94 percentage points year-on-year [26][27] Sector Performance - Weekly performance for various REITs sectors showed declines: affordable housing -1.88%, environmental -0.70%, highway -1.21%, industrial park -0.89%, warehousing and logistics -1.09%, energy -1.87%, and consumer REITs -1.45% [36][49] - Monthly performance indicated that consumer REITs had a cumulative increase of 2.79% [36] Upcoming Listings - There are currently 11 REITs funds awaiting listing, with active applications indicating a vibrant issuance market [55]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The demand for pork is expected to support prices as the year-end peak season approaches, despite a decline in prices due to overproduction and accelerated culling of sows [3][12] - The suspension of imports of Japanese seafood is beneficial for the domestic aquaculture sector, as it reduces competition and supports local prices [4][18] - The pet industry is experiencing growth driven by consumer upgrades and increased domestic production, with significant market potential projected for the coming years [22] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The culling of breeding sows has accelerated, with the national average price of live pigs at 11.62 yuan/kg as of November 21, 2025, down 0.01 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 4.75% year-on-year [11][12] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered is 128.81 kg, showing a slight increase week-on-week [11] - Cold weather is expected to boost pork consumption, providing support for prices during the peak season [12] Weekly Insights - The pig farming sector is facing losses, leading to accelerated culling of sows. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [22] - The feed sector is benefiting from strong demand, with domestic production expected to improve due to recovery in livestock numbers [22] - The pet market is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on domestic brands due to rising consumer preferences and tariff barriers [22] Market Performance (November 17-21) - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.45 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90% and the agricultural index down 3.45% [24] - The fishery sector led gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Zhongshui Fishery (+61.05%) and others [24][30] Price Tracking (November 17-21) - The average price of live pigs was 11.64 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the price of piglets increased to 19.15 yuan/kg [35] - The price of corn futures rose slightly to 2183.00 yuan/ton, while soybean meal futures decreased to 2427.00 yuan/ton [46][50]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The non-bank financial sector is under pressure due to overall market adjustments, with the insurance sector outperforming the CSI 300 index [5] - Insurers are preparing for a positive outlook for the 2026 opening, with improvements in new policies and value rates, supported by stable long-term interest rates [6] - The brokerage sector continues to show high performance, with a focus on undervalued leading brokerages [5] Summary by Sections Insurance - The release of the "Guidelines for Expense Allocation of Life Insurance Products" aims to enhance expense management and improve shareholder value [6] - Insurers are expected to see growth in bank insurance channels and a shift towards dividend insurance, with new health insurance regulations likely increasing product ratios [6] - Long-term interest rates are stabilizing, and the cost of liabilities is expected to decrease, improving the overall profitability of insurers [6] Brokerage - CICC plans to merge with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, aiming for economies of scale and improved shareholder returns [7] - The average daily trading volume of stock funds is reported at 23.3 trillion, reflecting a decrease of 6.6% [7] - The brokerage sector is expected to see significant ROE expansion, with continued low valuations presenting strategic investment opportunities [7] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include China Life H, Ping An, Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan, and others [8] - Beneficiary stocks include Tonghuashun and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [8]