行动教育（605098.SH）2025 年中报点评 "百校计划"执行良好，"AI 战略"助力成长 2025 年 08 月 12 日 ➢ 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告，2025 年上半年实现营业收入 3.44 亿 元，同比下降 11.68%；归母净利润 1.31 亿元，同比下降 3.51%；EPS 为 1.10 元/股，同比下降 4.35%；拟现金分红每 10 股派发现金红利 10 元（含税）。 ➢ 公司业绩略低于预期，全年业绩仍然可期。报告期内，公司实现营业收入 3.44 亿元，同比下降 11.68%；归母净利润 1.31 亿元，同比下降 3.51%。上半年，公 司在高基数、低报到率的双重影响下，公司业绩略有下滑，并低于我们此前预期。 当前公司正在积极推进"百校计划"，并积极向"时效管理+AI"转型。预计下 半年，随着经济向好、外部环境边际改善，公司 EMBA 课程的报到率、续费率等 有望改善，且 2024 年下半年基数相对较低，全年业绩仍然可期。 ➢ "百校计划"执行良好，未来发展动力十足。2025 年公司开启"百校计划"， 面向全球人才库，在全国重点城市直聘"城市总经理"。2025 年 3–7 ...

流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题 地方债隐含增值税率怎么看及后续投资策略 2025 年 08 月 12 日 ➢ 货币政策与流动性观点 政治局会议在货币政策表述上删除了"适时降准降息"有关内容，与当前经济状 态并不急需货币政策刺激有关，预计后续降息会更为克制，不过年内降准依然可 期。8 月 14 日"取消对债券回购的质押券进行冻结"的征求意见稿到期，预计 央行会出台正式稿件，这个规定的调整有利于疏通央行国债买卖的机制，为后续 重启国债买卖奠定基础，因为当前央行把国债买卖定性为流动性工具而非价格工 具，质押券解冻后可流动的国债规模会明显加大，能够降低央行国债买卖对国债 价格的影响。 8 月买断式到期 9000 亿元（4000 亿元 3M+5000 亿元 6M），8 日央行已经操 作了 7000 亿元 3M 买断式，预计月内还有一次 6M 的买断式操作，本月同业存 单到期规模超过 3 万亿元，买断式能够稳定中期流动性预期。本周资金面的扰动 因素有：①7DOMO 到期规模 11267 亿元，依然大幅高于季节性，②同业存单 到期规模大幅上升至 9065 亿元，有一定续发压力，③8 月 15 日为纳税申报截 止日。总体而言，资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, suggesting a potential increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index within the next 12 months [9]. Core Insights - In July 2025, the land supply in 23 key cities in China saw a significant decrease in planned construction area, with a month-on-month decline of 62.9%, totaling 343.9 million square meters [1]. - The total land transaction amount reached 888.88 billion yuan, reflecting a 41% decrease compared to the previous month [1]. - The land transaction premium rate in July 2025 rose to 12.41%, indicating a notable recovery since the beginning of the year [3]. - China Resources Land led the land acquisition with 15 plots, totaling 906.69 billion yuan [3]. Summary by Sections Land Supply and Transactions - In July 2025, 106 residential land plots were launched, with 113 plots successfully transacted, amounting to a total planned construction area of 653.68 million square meters [1]. - The land transaction premium rate has shown a significant increase, indicating a recovery in market confidence [3]. Company Land Acquisition - The report highlights the land acquisition activities of major companies, with China Resources Land acquiring the most plots, followed by Greentown China and China Merchants Shekou [4]. - The average land price per square meter for China Resources Land was 20,422 yuan, while Greentown China had an average of 25,031 yuan per square meter [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on China Jinmao, which has shown significant land acquisition activity and improvements in corporate governance [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with an expected revenue growth of 199.1 billion, 245.1 billion, and 295.0 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, and a projected net profit of 18.3 billion, 23.9 billion, and 29.3 billion for the same period [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in H1 2025, with revenue of 9.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.9%, and a net profit of 1.00 billion, up 41.4% year-on-year. The Q2 2025 revenue was 5.60 billion, reflecting a 25.5% increase year-on-year and a 31.9% increase quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The growth in revenue and profit is attributed to the strong sales of both two-wheeled and four-wheeled vehicles, with significant contributions from the launch of new products and the expansion of the electric vehicle segment [2][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In H1 2025, the company sold 150,000 fuel motorcycles, generating revenue of 3.35 billion, a 3.0% increase year-on-year. The average selling price (ASP) for these motorcycles was 22,000. In Q2 2025, motorcycle sales were 88,000, down 1.3% year-on-year but up 42.4% quarter-on-quarter. The company also sold 250,000 electric vehicles, generating revenue of 870 million [2][3]. Profitability - The net profit for H1 2025 was 1.00 billion, with a net profit margin of 11.0%. The profit growth is attributed to the optimization of product mix and cost structure [2][4]. Two-Wheeled Vehicles - The company led the market in the sales of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles, with sales of 108,000 units in H1 2025, a 44.6% increase year-on-year, and a market share increase to 21.6%. The new high-end 675cc three-cylinder model sold 34,000 units, a 593.8% increase year-on-year [3]. Four-Wheeled Vehicles - The company sold 102,000 all-terrain vehicles in H1 2025, generating revenue of 4.73 billion, a 34.0% increase year-on-year. The ASP for four-wheeled vehicles reached 46,000, a 7.2% increase year-on-year [4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with revenue projections of 19.91 billion in 2025, 24.51 billion in 2026, and 29.50 billion in 2027. The EPS is projected to be 11.96, 15.63, and 19.23 for the respective years [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the REITs sector, indicating a favorable outlook for future performance [7]. Core Insights - The REITs market is entering a new phase of high-quality development driven by both central and local policies, focusing on expanding and enhancing the quality of REITs [3][11]. - In Q2 2025, the market showed resilience with a significant recovery in the index, highlighting strong dividend performance and structural opportunities despite external pressures [4][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cash distribution stability, with a high dividend coverage rate and notable contributions from key REITs [28]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy and Development - Central policies are actively promoting the expansion and quality enhancement of REITs, with various initiatives aimed at improving asset quality and market mechanisms [12][15]. - Local governments are responding positively, implementing innovative mechanisms to support REITs, including project reserve management and the introduction of Pre-REITs tools [13][14]. 2. Market Performance - The China Securities REITs index experienced a temporary decline but rebounded to stabilize around the 10,000-point mark by the end of Q2 2025, demonstrating its resilience [4][16]. - The overall return of the REITs index was -9.80% over the past year, outperforming major stock indices, indicating its positioning between equity and fixed income [19][22]. 3. Sector Analysis - Different REIT sectors displayed varied performance, with strong growth in affordable housing and commercial REITs, while industrial park REITs showed significant internal divergence [5][26]. - The report highlights that the energy sector is improving, with some projects experiencing substantial growth in revenue and distributable funds [25][32]. - The logistics and warehousing sector continues to show stability, with all products reporting positive returns over the analyzed periods [26][32]. 4. Dividend Distribution - A total of 71 REITs were analyzed, with 57 distributing dividends in Q2 2025, resulting in a coverage rate of 80.3% and a total payout of 5.315 billion yuan [28][29]. - Key contributors to dividends included Ping An Ningbo REIT, which distributed 620 million yuan, and other significant players in the transportation and energy sectors [28][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [5][36]. Core Insights - The company is actively developing AI solutions across various sectors, including healthcare, legal, and military, positioning itself as a key player in the national AI landscape [1][2][36]. - The company has successfully integrated AI technologies into its products, showcasing significant advancements in efficiency and effectiveness across its service offerings [10][14][22]. Summary by Sections 1. AI Development in Healthcare, Legal, and Management - The company has launched the "Zhiling" medical AI solution, which enhances clinical documentation efficiency by over 90% and supports personalized health management [10][11]. - In the legal sector, the company introduced the "Jixiaoyi" AI agent, which provides comprehensive legal compliance solutions, enhancing operational efficiency in legal processes [14][16]. - The "Huizhu" private domain intelligent platform integrates AI capabilities into enterprise management, covering critical areas such as risk control and compliance [18][19]. 2. Significant Orders and Military AI Potential - The company won a major contract exceeding 100 million yuan for an AI platform project, demonstrating its strong capabilities in AI development [2][25]. - The "Xiaoke" large model has been recognized for its application in military and governmental sectors, indicating its potential for future growth [26][29]. - The company is positioned as a significant force in the intelligent development of state-owned enterprises, benefiting from its involvement in high-value AI projects [29][30]. 3. Financial Forecast and Profitability - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 313 million yuan, 409 million yuan, and 531 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 51X, 39X, and 30X [4][36]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 7.836 billion yuan in 2024 to 11.288 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [4][36]. 4. AI Ecosystem and Long-term Advantages - The company has established a comprehensive AI ecosystem, from large models to application layers, which is expected to support its long-term growth in various sectors [36][34]. - The CETC AI Open Service Platform, which integrates over 200 specialized models, is designed to facilitate digital transformation for enterprises, enhancing deployment efficiency by 30% [34][35].

Group 1: Inflation Analysis - The report highlights concerns about inflation in the U.S. due to recent tariff increases, with tariffs reaching the highest level since 1933 at 18.6%[23] - Historical comparisons suggest that current inflationary pressures may resemble those seen during the 1970s oil crisis, where supply chain disruptions led to significant price increases[10] - The impact of tariffs is twofold: direct price increases and supply chain disruptions, which can lead to different inflationary outcomes[10] Group 2: Current Economic Indicators - Current inflation data tracking has become more challenging due to government layoffs and data collection issues, leading to a reliance on estimates for over one-third of inflation data[39] - Key inflation indicators show a mixed trend, with energy prices and used car prices expected to decline, while other core goods may see price increases due to tariffs[29] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural changes in inflation, noting that the breadth of price increases is rising across various sectors[32] Group 3: Risks and Concerns - There are significant risks associated with aggressive tariff policies, including potential stagflation or recession if inflation continues to rise without adequate demand control[42] - Geopolitical tensions and unexpected tariff expansions could lead to greater volatility in asset prices and a slowdown in global economic growth[42] - The accuracy of inflation data may be compromised by political influences and estimation methods, raising concerns about the reliability of reported figures[39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4] Core Viewpoints - The company has shown significant profit recovery, with a notable increase in revenue and a shift towards profitability in Q2 2025, achieving a revenue of 43.11 billion yuan, up 62.77% year-on-year [1] - The company's ABC product sales have surged, with a shipment volume of 8.57GW, representing a 400% increase year-on-year, and overseas sales now account for over 40% of total sales [2] - The company leads the industry in product efficiency, with its second-generation N-type ABC components achieving a conversion efficiency of 24.4%, and the introduction of third-generation components has pushed efficiency above 25% [3] - A fundraising plan has been approved, aiming to raise 3.5 billion yuan to support capacity expansion and optimize the financial structure [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 84.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.63%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -2.38 billion yuan [1] - The company achieved a net cash inflow from operating activities of 18.55 billion yuan, ensuring operational liquidity and financial safety [1] Product and Market Development - The company has significantly increased its market share in high-value overseas markets, with the revenue from ABC components rising from 32.96% in H1 2024 to 74.44% in H1 2025 [2] - The company has received procurement orders totaling approximately 10GW for its components in the first half of 2025, with premium pricing in overseas markets ranging from 10% to 50% [2] Efficiency and Innovation - The company has maintained its position at the top of the global efficiency rankings for commercialized components for 29 consecutive months [3] - Innovations in technology, such as the introduction of third-generation "full-screen" components, have further enhanced the company's competitive edge [3] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 192.62 billion yuan, 286.28 billion yuan, and 355.17 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to improve significantly over the same period [4] - The company is expected to benefit from scale effects and cost reduction initiatives, alongside continued expansion in overseas markets [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [3][4]. Core Insights - The company's core business, particularly in power equipment, has shown robust growth, with a revenue increase of 15.29% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. The domestic market grew by 5%, while the overseas market saw a significant increase, with direct exports up by 20.24% and indirect exports up by 84.03% [2][3]. - The company has successfully achieved batch operation of its ultra-high voltage tap changers, marking a significant milestone in domestic production capabilities. This advancement is expected to contribute to new business growth in the ultra-high voltage sector [3][4]. - Financial forecasts predict revenue growth from 26.12 billion in 2025 to 33.53 billion in 2027, with corresponding net profits expected to rise from 7.10 billion to 9.51 billion during the same period [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 11.21 billion, a slight increase of 0.04% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.68 billion, up 17.17% year-on-year. The second quarter saw a revenue of 6.12 billion, down 8.64% year-on-year but up 20.06% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The gross margin improved to 55.73% in Q2 2025, an increase of 11.10 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin rose to 33.21%, up 8.13 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. Business Segments - The power equipment segment generated 9.59 billion in revenue in H1 2025, with notable growth in both domestic and international markets. The CNC equipment segment also performed well, with a revenue increase of 41.49% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company has established itself as a leader in the domestic market for transformer tap changers, with a stable competitive landscape and accelerated international expansion [3][4]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 26.12 billion, 29.70 billion, and 33.53 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be 7.10 billion, 8.24 billion, and 9.51 billion [3][4]. - The report anticipates a consistent growth rate in revenue and net profit, with PE ratios decreasing from 23X in 2025 to 17X in 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Sinopec, Zhongman Petroleum, and New Natural Gas [4]. Core Insights - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, completing its plan to restore 2.2 million barrels per day ahead of schedule [1][8]. - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with the U.S. imposing additional tariffs on Indian goods, which may impact oil supply dynamics [1][8]. - The report suggests monitoring the progress of U.S.-Russia talks, as breakthroughs could lead to short-term oil price declines, while stagnation may keep prices volatile [1][8]. - Brent crude oil price is expected to find solid support at $60 per barrel due to lower-than-expected U.S. production increases [1][8]. Summary by Sections Oil and Gas Price Performance - As of August 7, Brent crude oil futures settled at $66.43 per barrel, down 4.65% week-on-week, while WTI futures settled at $63.88 per barrel, down 5.12% [9][36]. - The NYMEX natural gas futures closed at $3.00 per million British thermal units, down 3.20% week-on-week [44][45]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - U.S. crude oil production decreased to 13.28 million barrels per day, down 30,000 barrels per day week-on-week, while refinery throughput increased to 17.12 million barrels per day, up 210,000 barrels per day [9][10]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 3.03 million barrels to 42.366 billion barrels as of August 1 [10]. Company Performance - The report highlights that the oil and gas sector has shown resilience, with the CITIC Petroleum and Petrochemical sector rising by 1.3% as of August 8, outperforming the broader market indices [12][15]. - Key companies such as Zhongman Petroleum and New Natural Gas are recommended for their growth potential and resource advantages [11][12]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that oil prices will remain supported due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and production adjustments by OPEC+ [1][8]. - The overall sentiment in the oil market is cautious, with potential for volatility based on geopolitical developments and economic indicators [1][8].