Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Insights - The oil and petrochemical sector is experiencing short-term impacts on crude oil production due to wildfires in Canada, while Saudi Arabia expresses intentions to accelerate production increases [6]. - The WTI crude oil futures price increased by 6.70% and Brent oil futures rose by 4.30% during the specified period [6]. - Geopolitical tensions, including ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding nuclear issues and escalating conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, are contributing to fluctuations in international oil prices [6]. - The U.S. is seeing a notable increase in gasoline and jet fuel demand as the summer travel season begins, which may support a rebound in refined oil product demand [6]. - The report highlights that Canadian wildfires have led to a shutdown of approximately 350,000 barrels per day of heavy crude oil production, representing about 7% of the country's oil output, which has temporarily boosted oil prices [6]. - Saudi Arabia aims to increase OPEC+ production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August and September to regain lost market share, which may exacerbate global oil supply surplus pressures [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - The report discusses the short-term impact of Canadian wildfires on crude oil production and Saudi Arabia's intent to accelerate production increases [6][7]. - It tracks fundamental data related to crude oil and refining industries, noting the trends in inventory and production [15][24]. Fluorochemicals - The report indicates that domestic demand is driven by national subsidies, with refrigerant prices remaining high due to supply constraints [6][7]. - It notes that the production of second-generation refrigerants is expected to decrease, while demand from the air conditioning and automotive sectors is projected to grow significantly [6][7]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing a positive trend with inventory reduction and improving end-market fundamentals, suggesting a potential upward cycle [7][72]. - The report recommends focusing on companies within this sector that are positioned to benefit from domestic substitution trends [7][72].

其 他 报 告 2025年06月06日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3384 | 0.23 | -0.03 | | 深证成份指数 | 10204 | 0.58 | -0.91 | | 沪深300指数 | 3878 | 0.23 | -1.08 | | 创业板指数 | 2049 | 1.17 | -1.40 | | 上证国债指数 | 225 | -0.01 | -0.04 | | 上证基金指数 | 6915 | 0.06 | -0.04 | | | | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | | 今日重点推荐： 【平安证券】债券月报*2025年4月机构行为思考：流动性环境转 好，新增专项债供给偏慢*20250605 研究分析师 : 刘璐 投资咨询资格编号 : S1060519060001 研究助理 : 王佳萌 一般证券从业资格编号 : S1060123070024 核心观点 : 25年4月债券托管规模保持较快增长。2025年4月，债券托管余额同比 增速为15.5%，较3月上升0 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic market shows a slight improvement with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3376, up by 0.42% on the day, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.87% [1] - The overseas market also reflects positive trends, with the Dow Jones Index rising by 0.51% and the S&P 500 Index increasing by 0.58% [2] Group 2: Economic Policy and Trends - The report highlights that the Politburo meeting at the end of April clarified the direction of future economic policies, leading to a coordinated effort in financial and industrial policies [3][8] - Since May, the uncertainty in the overseas environment has gradually decreased, indicating an improvement in both internal and external market conditions [3][8] Group 3: Industry Insights - In the food and beverage sector, companies are focusing on strategic transformations and high-quality development, particularly in the high-end liquor market, which is expected to benefit from a recovering consumption environment [4][14] - The beverage industry is seeing innovation with new product launches aimed at meeting diverse consumer demands, particularly in the beer, soft drink, and snack segments as the peak season approaches [14] Group 4: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market is currently in a fluctuating state, with the yield on 10-year government bonds rising by 0.8 basis points to 1.68% [5][15] - The report suggests that the bond market remains in a range of 1.65% to 1.70%, with opportunities for investment at the upper end of this range [5][15] Group 5: Sector-Specific Opportunities - The report identifies several sectors that may benefit from policy support, including consumer goods, automotive, and renewable energy, with a focus on high-quality development and innovation [10][11][12] - The TMT sector is expected to accelerate domestic supply chain replacement due to new export controls from the U.S., while the pharmaceutical sector is witnessing a transformation with Chinese innovative drugs gaining global traction [12]

证券研究报告 【平安固收】2025年4月机构行 为思考：流动性环境转好，新增 专项债供给偏慢 平安证券研究所固定收益团队 分析师：刘璐 S1060519060001 （证券投资咨询） 邮箱：wangjiameng709@pingan.com.cn 邮箱：liulu979@pingan.com.cn 研究助理：王佳萌 S1060123070024（一般从业资格） 25年4月债券新增托管量同比增速提升 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 25年4月债券新增托管规模1.7万亿元（亿元） 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 新增托管量（亿元） 同比增速（%，右轴） 资料来源：中债、上清所、上交所、深交所，平安证券研究所 3 核心摘要 25年4月债券托管规模保持较快增长。2025年4月，债券托管余额同比 ...

食品饮料周报 饮品旺季临近，产业端多维创新 证券研究报告 食品饮料行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 食品饮料团队 分析师：张晋溢 S1060521030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 分析师：王萌 S1060522030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 分析师：王星云 S1060523100001（证券投资咨询） 食品饮料周报-观点 资料来源：iFind，平安证券研究所 本周白酒指数（中信）累计涨跌幅-2.80%。涨跌幅前三的个股为： *ST岩石（+4.71%）、天佑德酒（+3.88%）、伊力特 （+1.17%）；涨跌幅后三的个股为迎驾贡酒（-3.51%）、山西汾酒（-4.01%）、泸州老窖（-4.04%）。 观点：酒企务实求真，加大战略转型。上周白酒股东大会集中召开，据微酒，在行业调整周期中，多家酒企提出将加大战略转型， 聚焦高质量发展，同时加大年轻消费者培育，体现出务实的态度。展望未来，我们期待政策助力下，消费环境回暖，标的上推荐三 条主线，一是需求坚挺的高端白酒；二是全国化持续推进的次高端白酒；三 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The equity market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, supported by the continuous effects of domestic policies and the strengthening of fundamental resilience [2][8] - The report suggests focusing on high-growth industries and quality dividend assets, with three main investment themes: domestic technology and high-end manufacturing, consumer quality assets benefiting from domestic demand expansion policies, and quality dividend assets with long-term investment value [2][8] Group 2: Recommendations - The report recommends ten key stocks for June: Qianhong Pharmaceutical, Dongcheng Pharmaceutical, Yanjing Beer, Shenxinfeng, Foxit Software, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, China Pacific Insurance, and China Shenhua Energy [2][8] Group 3: Precious and Industrial Metals - Gold prices experienced a slight decline due to uncertainties in U.S. policies and trade negotiations, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to the weakening of U.S. dollar credit [10][11] - Copper demand is gradually recovering domestically, with a tight supply of copper concentrate, indicating a potential upward trend in copper prices [10][11] - Aluminum prices are expected to rise due to a strong demand-supply imbalance, with domestic aluminum inventory decreasing significantly [11][12] Group 4: Computer Industry Insights - DeepSeek R1 has completed a minor version upgrade, enhancing its performance in complex reasoning tasks, while NVIDIA reported a significant revenue increase driven by strong global AI computing demand [14][15] - The computer industry index rose by 1.77%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, indicating a positive market trend [14][15] Group 5: Real Estate Market Trends - New home sales in key cities showed a month-on-month increase, with expectations for continued recovery as developers ramp up marketing efforts [20][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of "good products" and core areas in stabilizing the market, with a focus on companies with strong product capabilities and optimized inventory structures [21][22] Group 6: Renewable Energy Sector - The offshore wind power projects in Guangdong are expected to accelerate, indicating new investment opportunities in the offshore wind industry [26][27] - The report highlights the increasing trend of BC technology in the photovoltaic sector, with companies like Longi and Aishuo launching innovative products to meet diverse customer needs [28][29] Group 7: Financial Sector Analysis - The growth rate of corporate loans remains low, while personal loans show steady growth, indicating a cautious lending environment [34][35] - The report notes that the issuance of government bonds is accelerating, impacting the overall loan growth rate, with a focus on industrial and infrastructure loans [34][35]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - As the mid-year sprint approaches, transaction volume is expected to continue its month-on-month recovery. In May, the number of new homes sold in 50 key cities decreased by 5.3% year-on-year but increased by 9.1% month-on-month. The top 100 real estate companies managed a total of 294.58 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 3.5% [3] - The report emphasizes that "good products" and "core areas in first and second-tier cities" are likely to stabilize first. Although the real estate market in some cities has slightly cooled down in Q2 2025, there is no need for excessive concern. Factors such as sufficient adjustment time in the market and recent interest rate cuts are expected to ease home-buying pressure [3] - Short-term market fluctuations are anticipated, but investors are advised to focus on medium-term positioning. The trend of stabilization in "good products" and "core areas" remains unchanged, with some hot cities expected to recover in Q4 2024 [3] Market Monitoring - New home transactions in key cities showed a month-on-month increase, with 22,000 new homes sold in the week of May 24-30, up 5.8% from the previous week. However, second-hand home transactions in 20 key cities decreased by 9.4% [9] - Inventory slightly decreased, with a total of 91.32 million square meters in 16 cities, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.1% and a de-stocking cycle of 18.4 months [12] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a 0.95% increase last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 1.08%. The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the real estate sector is 39.43 times, placing it in the 95.64th percentile over the past five years [18] - The issuance of domestic real estate bonds increased to 4.91 billion yuan last week, with a net financing amount that also rose [15] Individual Stock Recommendations - Companies to watch include those with lighter historical burdens and strong product capabilities, such as China Overseas Development, China Resources Land, and Poly Development. Additionally, companies like New Town Holdings and Vanke A are recommended for valuation recovery [3][24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the market by more than 5% over the next six months [24]. Core Insights - The report highlights three significant events in the global pension sector, including the Canadian CPP's sale of its fossil energy trading platform, the Korean NPS's increase in overseas stock investments, and the UK government's legislative push for pension investments in the domestic private equity market [1][2][11]. Summary by Sections Canadian CPP's Sale of Fossil Energy Platform - On May 30, Canadian CPP Investments announced the sale of its entire 98% stake in the fossil energy acquisition platform EAP to EOG Resources for $5.6 billion. This sale does not indicate a change in CPP's investment strategy in the U.S. [6][7]. Korean NPS's Increase in Overseas Stock Investments - The Korean National Pension Service (NPS) plans to raise its overseas stock allocation target from 35.9% to 38.9% by 2026, which translates to an additional investment of approximately $26.5 billion into foreign stock markets. This strategy aims to hedge against domestic market weaknesses and enhance overall returns [9][10]. UK Government's Legislative Push for Domestic Private Equity Investments - The UK government has proposed legislation to mandate pension plans to invest in the domestic private equity market and set local investment targets. The review aims to reverse the declining trend of UK pension plans investing domestically, which has dropped from over 50% in 2012 to about 20% currently [11][12].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market (maintained) [2][28] Core Viewpoints - As the mid-year sprint approaches, transaction volume is expected to continue its month-on-month recovery. In May, the number of new homes sold in 50 key cities decreased by 5.3% year-on-year but increased by 9.1% month-on-month. The operating amount of the top 100 real estate companies was 294.58 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 3.5% [3] - The report emphasizes that "good products" and "core areas in first and second-tier cities" are likely to stabilize first. The adjustment period for the real estate market has been sufficient, and recent interest rate cuts have eased home-buying pressure. Core city supply is entering a "window period," which may support market stabilization [3] - Short-term market fluctuations are expected, but investors are advised to focus on medium-term positioning. The trend of stabilization in "good products" and "core areas" remains unchanged, with some hot cities showing early signs of recovery [3] Market Monitoring - New home transactions in key cities showed a month-on-month increase of 5.8%, while second-hand home transactions decreased by 9.4%. The average daily transaction volume for new homes in May was down 5.3% year-on-year but up 9.1% month-on-month [9] - Inventory slightly decreased, with a de-stocking cycle of 18.4 months. The inventory in 16 cities was 91.32 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [13] - The real estate sector saw a 0.95% increase in stock prices, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 1.08%. The current PE ratio for the real estate sector is 39.43 times, at the 95.64% percentile of the past five years [18] Policy Environment Monitoring - Multiple regions have introduced policies to stabilize the real estate market, including Shenzhen's guidelines for the allocation of affordable housing [4][6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The growth rate of financial institutions' loans has slightly decreased, primarily influenced by accelerated government bond issuance, leading to a structural tilt towards corporate loans [2] - The overall loan balance of financial institutions reached 265.41 trillion yuan at the end of Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.4%, and an increase of 9.78 trillion yuan in the first quarter [1] - The growth rate of corporate loans remains the main focus, with medium to long-term loans in the industrial sector growing by 11.2% year-on-year, and infrastructure loans increasing by 8.0% [2] - The growth rate of inclusive small and micro loans is stable, with a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, which is 4.8 percentage points higher than the overall loan growth rate [2] - The decline in mortgage loans has slowed, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, influenced by a reduction in the decline of commercial housing sales area [2] Summary by Sections Loan Growth Overview - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total RMB loan balance was 265.41 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.4% and an increase of 9.78 trillion yuan in Q1 [1] Corporate Loans - Corporate loans continue to receive the majority of resource allocation, with industrial medium to long-term loans growing by 11.2% year-on-year, and infrastructure loans increasing by 8.0% [2] Inclusive Finance - Inclusive small and micro loans showed a year-on-year growth of 12.2%, indicating a stable growth trend, while agricultural loans also maintained a high growth rate of 8.4% [2] Mortgage Loans - Mortgage loans experienced a year-on-year decline of 0.8%, but the rate of decline has narrowed, suggesting potential recovery in the future [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a "pro-cyclical + high dividend" investment strategy, highlighting the attractiveness of dividend yields in the current market environment, with an average dividend yield of 4.19% [2]