1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of November 21, ETF products declined overall in the past two weeks. Among domestic major broad - based ETFs, the Shanghai Composite 50 had the smallest decline, and among industry and theme products, the consumption - themed ETF had the smallest decline [2]. - In the past two weeks, among domestic major broad - based ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Board 50, CSI 500, ChiNext Index, and CSI 1000 ETFs had the highest net inflows of funds. On November 21, major broad - based and technology - themed ETFs had significant net inflows [2]. - In the past two weeks, funds in cycle, military, and new energy ETFs changed from net outflows to net inflows; funds in technology, dividend, and other large - manufacturing ETFs accelerated their inflows; while the inflow speed of funds in pharmaceutical, consumption, and financial real - estate ETFs slowed down [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 ETF Market Review 3.1.1 Main Types of ETF Fund Flows Overview - In terms of broad - based ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Board 50, CSI 500, ChiNext Index, and CSI 1000 ETFs had relatively high net inflows in the past two weeks. For example, the Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 had a net inflow of 90.66 billion yuan in the past two weeks [9]. - Among industry - themed ETFs, technology ETFs had an accelerated inflow of funds in the past two weeks, with a net inflow of 322.73 billion yuan. New energy ETFs changed from net outflows to net inflows, with a net inflow of 28.34 billion yuan [9]. 3.1.2 Cumulative Fund Flows of Main Types of ETFs - For broad - based ETFs, since 2025, the fund trend of major broad - based ETFs has changed from outflows to inflows and then back to outflows. In the past two weeks, the overall funds of major broad - based ETFs turned into net inflows [11]. - For industry and theme ETFs, technology ETFs turned to net inflows since March after a large - scale outflow at the beginning of the year, and the inflow speed accelerated in the past two weeks. Cycle, military, and new energy ETFs changed from net outflows to net inflows [17]. - For bond ETFs, since 2025, credit - bond and treasury - bond ETFs have had the highest net inflows. In the past two weeks, convertible - bond ETFs changed from net outflows to net inflows, and treasury - bond ETFs accelerated their net inflows [17]. 3.1.3 ETF Product Structure Distribution - As of November 21, a total of 13 new ETFs were established in the market in the past two weeks, with a total issuance share of 5.828 billion shares. Among them, 12 were stock ETFs and 1 was a QDII - ETF [26]. - Compared with the end of 2024, the scale of various types of ETFs has increased. The scales of bond ETFs, commodity ETFs, industry + dividend ETFs, QDII - ETFs, and broad - based ETFs increased by 313.15%, 204.80%, 105.82%, 52.50%, and 9.24% respectively [26]. 3.1.4 Fund Manager Scale Distribution - As of November 21, China Asset Management had the largest on - exchange ETF scale, reaching 88.8558 billion yuan. The ETF management scale of E Fund expanded by more than 22 billion yuan compared with a year ago [27]. 3.2 Classification of ETF Tracking 3.2.1 Technology - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Products tracking the Hang Seng Tech Index had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking semiconductor materials and equipment had net outflows [32]. 3.2.2 Dividend - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Products tracking the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect High - Dividend Low - Volatility Index had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking the A500 Dividend Low - Volatility Index had net outflows [35]. 3.2.3 Consumption - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Products tracking the S&P 500 Consumer Select Index had a relatively high premium rate. ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Consumption Index had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking the CSI Tourism Index had net outflows [37]. 3.2.4 Pharmaceutical - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - ETFs tracking the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drugs had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking the CSI Traditional Chinese Medicine Index had net outflows [40]. 3.2.5 Large - Manufacturing - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Products tracking the Robot Index had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking the CSI National Defense Index had net outflows [43]. 3.2.6 QDII ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Products tracking the Hang Seng Tech Index had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while ETF products tracking the Hang Seng Index had net outflows [46]. 3.3 Popular - Themed ETF Tracking 3.3.1 AI - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - AI - themed products performed poorly in the past two weeks, with an average return rate of - 7.70%. Products tracking cloud computing had the smallest decline. Since 2025, funds have had an overall net inflow, and in the past two weeks, the net inflow of funds was 9.172 billion yuan [57]. 3.3.2 Robot - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Robot - themed products performed poorly in the past two weeks, with an average return rate of - 7.30%. Products tracking the Robot Index had the smallest decline. Since February 2025, funds have shown a rapid inflow trend, and in the past two weeks, the net inflow of funds was 3.556 billion yuan [61].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected performance exceeding the market by more than 5% within the next six months [28]. Core Views - The report highlights a recent decline in the consumer sector, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index dropping by 3.77% from November 17 to November 21, 2025. All sub-sectors within the consumer industry experienced declines, with the most significant drop in consumer services at -6.53% [3][5]. - The report suggests focusing on bottom-fishing opportunities following the recent pullback in the consumer sector [3]. Summary by Sections Consumer Goods - Mass Market - The mass market segment shows high demand in functional beverages and snacks, with a notable performance from brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Salted Fish [3]. - The dairy sector is experiencing a steady recovery, with leading companies likely entering a profit recovery phase [3]. - The restaurant supply chain is stabilizing, with industries like condiments and frozen foods beginning to recover from previous lows [3]. Consumer Goods - Alcohol - Most liquor companies reported a deeper decline in net profits for Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025, indicating ongoing challenges [3]. - The report identifies three key investment lines: high-end white liquor, mid-range white liquor with national expansion, and local market-focused liquor [3]. Social Services - The social services sector is entering a performance vacuum following Q3 reports, with a focus on companies like China Duty Free and Aimeike that may benefit from policy catalysts and mergers [3]. - The report notes the introduction of snow holidays in regions like Xinjiang, which may boost local tourism [17]. Home Appliances - The home appliance market is experiencing a rational adjustment, with significant declines in retail sales during the Double Eleven shopping festival [15]. - Air conditioning production is expected to drop by 22.6% in December, reflecting ongoing downward pressure in the industry [15]. Textile and Jewelry - The report recommends continued attention to investment opportunities in the gold and jewelry accessories sector, particularly brands with potential for market share growth [3]. Cultural Communication - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding consumer sentiment in niche markets, suggesting that companies in the media sector could benefit from this insight [3].

行业评级：地产 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所地产团队 2025年11月23日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 核心摘要 证券研究报告 政策预期升温，优质地产配置价值凸显 地产行业周报 2 周度观点：政策预期升温，降低房贷利率仍有必要。随着2024年四季度销售基数抬升，10月全国商品房销售面积同比降18.8%，70个大 中城市新房/二手房价环比降0.5%和0.7%，且降幅较9月有所扩大。楼市量价承压背景下，近期市场政策预期有所升温。我们在2024年9 月18日发布的专题报告《供需框架下楼市趋势探讨》提到，海外楼市企稳关键在于居民购房意愿与能力的提升、最终带来供需格局的改 善。展望国内楼市，一方面仍需宏观政策发力稳定居民收入预期，提升购房能力，另一方面2025Q3加权房贷利率（3.06%）仍高于10月 百城住宅租金回报率（2.36%），通过降息/房贷加点变化/政府贴息等方式降低房贷利率增强购房相对吸引力仍有必要。 短期大盘波动加剧，优质地产配置价值凸显。1）优质地产相对滞涨，叠加楼市复苏仍不明朗，短期政策博弈性价比提升；2）中期维度 来看，"好房子"的趋势并不会因短期楼市调整发生改变，历史包袱较轻的品质房企有望 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The disclosure of the Russia-Ukraine "28-point" peace plan has increased downward pressure on oil prices, with WTI crude futures closing down 3.22% and Brent crude down 2.77% during the specified period [6]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Venezuela, and the ongoing conflict in Libya, contribute to market volatility [6]. - The U.S. job market shows mixed signals, with a significant increase in non-farm employment but a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4%, the highest in four years [6]. - The fluorochemical sector is experiencing strong demand for popular fluorinated refrigerants, with prices remaining high due to supply constraints and stable market competition [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - The Russia-Ukraine peace plan has led to significant downward pressure on oil prices, with geopolitical tensions and mixed economic signals from the U.S. contributing to market uncertainty [6][7]. - Domestic oil companies are diversifying their energy sources and integrating upstream and downstream operations to mitigate the impact of volatile oil prices [7]. Fluorochemicals - The market for popular fluorinated refrigerants, such as R32 and R134a, continues to thrive, with prices remaining elevated due to supply constraints and stable demand from the air conditioning and automotive sectors [6][7]. - The production of second-generation refrigerants is declining due to policy restrictions, while third-generation refrigerants face limited quota increases, leading to a tightening supply-demand balance [6]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is showing signs of recovery, with inventory depletion trends improving and domestic substitution gaining momentum [7]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Shanghai Xinyang and Lianrui New Materials for potential investment opportunities [7].

陈 骁 投资咨询资格编号：S1060516070001 证券研究报告 A股策略周报： 张弛换挡，蓄势再发 证券分析师 研究助理 靳旭媛 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070018 2025年11月23日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 ※ 核心观点|张弛换挡，蓄势再发 2 • 上周美联储降息预期扰动、AI泡沫担忧等影响下，全球权益普遍承压。美股三大股指下跌1%-3%，对流动性较为敏感的恒生指数下跌 5.1%。A股缩量调整，上证指数下跌3.90%，小盘成长跌幅靠前，北证50、中证2000、创业板指跌幅在6%-10%，大盘红利相对较为抗跌， 上证50、中证红利指数跌幅在4%以内。全A日均成交额回落至1.87万亿元，全周股票型ETF净流入约500亿元，中证500、沪深300等宽基 类ETF是净流入的主要贡献；结构上，银行、传媒、食品饮料跌幅较浅，电力设备领跌10.54%。概念方面，水产、中船系概念领涨。 • 海外方面，美联储12月降息预期先降后升。基本面上，美国就业数据对 12月降息指引作用淡化。美国9月非农就业人口超预期增长11.9万 人，但失业率升至4.4%，为2021年10月以来最高。12对于月是否降息，一 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [31] Core Insights - Pfizer's Q3 2025 revenue decreased from $17.7 billion to $16.65 billion, a decline of 7% year-over-year, primarily due to reduced demand for COVID-19 products [3][10] - Despite the revenue drop, Pfizer raised its full-year profit forecast, driven by growth in non-COVID business segments [3] - Total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was $45.02 billion, down 2% year-over-year [3][10] Summary by Sections Part 1: Q3 2025 Financial Overview and Key Events - Pfizer's Q3 2025 reported net income was $3.54 billion, a 21% decrease from the previous year, while adjusted income was $4.95 billion, down 18% [7][10] - Key events included reaching an agreement with the U.S. government to alleviate tariff threats and a partnership with Metsera to enhance its presence in the obesity market [13][11] Part 2: Core Product Sales Analysis - The oncology segment is the fastest-growing among Pfizer's three business units, with Ibrance sales at $3.083 billion, down 6% year-over-year [20] - Nectin-4 ADC drug Padcev generated $464 million in Q3 2025, a 13% increase, and is established as a standard treatment for certain cancers [20][29] - Rare disease drug Vyndaqel series sales reached $1.591 billion, up 7%, benefiting from ongoing promotion in developed markets [20] Part 3: Future Pipeline Milestones - Pfizer anticipates one regulatory decision and two Phase III data readouts potentially delayed to 2026 [23][25] - The regulatory decision involves BRAFTOVI for treating BRAF V600E mutation metastatic colorectal cancer [25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The black metal industry is entering a long-cycle peak phase, with both supply and demand sides experiencing low growth or gradual decline. However, the inherent demand rigidity prevents an immediate recession, providing opportunities for asset enhancement and valuation improvement for leading companies [4][26] - Supply-side adjustments are focused on further concentration and reasonable control of total capacity, with significant consolidation in the coal and steel industries [3][4] - Demand is shifting towards domestic manufacturing and new export markets, with a decreasing reliance on real estate [4][26] Summary by Sections Pricing Cycle, Cost Structure, and Profit Distribution - The pricing framework indicates a high correlation between supply and demand in the black metal industry, with supply-side policies significantly influencing production changes [11][14] - The cost structure highlights that iron ore and coal prices are core components of production costs, with iron ore accounting for approximately 53% of the high furnace ironmaking costs [27][28] - Profit distribution shows that upstream mining resources enjoy the highest profit margins, while steel and coke producers face more pressure [30][31] Industry Chain Map and Pricing Framework - The black metal industry chain includes coal, iron ore, coke, and steel, with coal being a primary raw material for coke production [8][9] - The pricing framework emphasizes the strong linkage between coal, coke, and steel prices, driven by supply and demand dynamics [11][14] Fundamental Cycle and Supply-Demand Transition Paths - The supply cycle is characterized by a peak phase, with capacity growth slowing and structural adjustments underway [37][40] - The demand cycle is closely aligned with macroeconomic trends, with a notable shift towards manufacturing and export markets [4][26] - The transition path for demand indicates a reduction in steel consumption for real estate, with manufacturing and export demand becoming more prominent [4][26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [10] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the acceleration of supply-side reforms in the securities industry, particularly through the proposed merger of CICC with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, which is expected to enhance the competitive landscape and promote high-quality development in the sector [4][6][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory support for large financial institutions and the encouragement of mergers and acquisitions to optimize industry structure and improve service quality [6][9] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the increasing regulatory scrutiny and the push for high-quality development within the securities industry, with a focus on creating "aircraft carrier-level" securities firms through market-driven mergers and acquisitions [6][9] Merger Details - CICC plans to absorb Dongxing and Xinda Securities through a share exchange, with trading suspension expected to last no more than 25 trading days [6][9] - The merger is anticipated to create a more robust entity with enhanced asset management capabilities and a stronger market position [6][9] Financial Performance - As of Q3 2025, CICC's total assets were CNY 764.94 billion, with a net profit of CNY 6.57 billion, while Dongxing and Xinda reported total assets of CNY 116.39 billion and CNY 128.25 billion, respectively [9] - Post-merger projections indicate that CICC's total assets could reach CNY 1,009.58 billion, with a net profit of CNY 9.52 billion, reflecting significant growth potential [9] Competitive Advantages - CICC is noted for its balanced business development and strong cross-border capabilities, while Dongxing is enhancing its wealth management services, and Xinda is leveraging its asset management resources for competitive differentiation [7][8] - The merger is expected to create synergies that will enhance the firms' abilities to serve the real economy and improve overall service quality [6][9]

Group 1: Background of the Fed's "Third Mission" - The Federal Reserve's "third mission" of promoting moderate long-term interest rates was established in the 1977 Federal Reserve Act but has been largely overlooked in recent discussions[5] - On September 3, 2025, new Fed Governor Stephen Milan's reference to the "third mission" during a congressional hearing led to significant market reactions, with 10-30 year Treasury yields dropping by approximately 30 basis points[2][8] - Milan argues for a substantial rate cut, suggesting that the appropriate policy rate should be lowered from 4.26% to 2.49% based on non-monetary factors like rent and trade policies[16][13] Group 2: Central Bank Intervention Experiences - Historical interventions by central banks (US, Japan, Eurozone) typically occur during major economic crises, primarily to alleviate liquidity issues and create a low-interest environment[22] - Tools for controlling long-term bond rates include lowering policy rates, forward guidance, asset purchases, and balance sheet adjustments, with asset purchases showing the most significant effectiveness[22] - While these interventions can reduce fiscal costs, they also carry risks such as potential high inflation, asset price distortions, and conflicts between monetary and fiscal authorities[23] Group 3: Controversies Surrounding the "Third Mission" - There is debate over how to define "moderate" long-term interest rates, with estimates of the neutral rate varying widely[3] - The effectiveness of the "dual mandate" in achieving the "third mission" is questioned, especially as current long-term bond yields appear higher than what is considered moderate[3] - Concerns exist regarding whether lowering bond yields could lead to higher inflation, reflecting a conflict between monetarist views and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL)[3] Group 4: Market Implications of Practicing the "Third Mission" - In the short term, discussions around the "third mission" may trigger expectations of monetary easing, thereby lowering medium to long-term bond yields[2] - The actual impact on long-term yields remains uncertain and is contingent on future inflation trends and fiscal policies in the US[2] - The implementation of the "third mission" could weaken the Fed's independence and contribute to a narrative of "de-dollarization," potentially leading to a weaker dollar and benefiting gold and non-US assets[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Xiaomi Group-W (1810.HK) [1][6]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, Xiaomi achieved a revenue of 113.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, with an adjusted net profit of 11.3 billion yuan, up 80.9% year-on-year [3]. - The automotive business turned profitable in Q3, with a delivery volume of 108,796 units, a year-on-year increase of 173.4%, and automotive revenue reaching 28.3 billion yuan, up 197.9% year-on-year [5]. - The smartphone business faced pressure from rising storage costs, with Q3 smartphone shipments exceeding 43 million units, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, and revenue of 46 billion yuan, down 3.1% year-on-year [5]. - The IoT and consumer products segment saw a revenue increase of 5.6% year-on-year, with smart home appliances experiencing a decline due to reduced government subsidies [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Xiaomi are set at 365.9 billion yuan for 2024, 471.1 billion yuan for 2025, and 601.1 billion yuan for 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.0%, 28.7%, and 27.6% respectively [4][11]. - Net profit forecasts are adjusted to 44.1 billion yuan for 2025, 52.4 billion yuan for 2026, and 65.3 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting a significant increase from previous estimates [6][11]. - The gross margin for the automotive business reached 25.5% in Q3, while the smartphone business gross margin was 11.1%, down approximately 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Key Financial Ratios - The report highlights a projected return on equity (ROE) of 19.0% for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.9 and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 4.2 [4][11].