Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, A-shares rose, U.S. stocks fluctuated, the RMB appreciated, and the fund market performed well with an increase in issuance scale and net inflows into equity ETF funds [2]. - In January 2026, the fundamental model triggers an economic recovery signal, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of equity assets. The growth style and small-cap style are favored [2]. - For fund allocation in January 2026, focus on small-cap and growth styles, pay attention to relatively stable "固收+" funds and short-duration bond funds, and recommend specific funds such as Dongwu Mobile Internet (001323.OF), CITIC Prudential Multi-Strategy (165531.OF), etc. [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 2025 December Review Asset Market Performance - **Stock Market**: A-shares rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 2.06% and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 up 1.28%. U.S. stocks fluctuated, with the Dow Jones Index up 0.73% and the Nasdaq Index down 0.53%. Hong Kong stocks fell [8][14]. - **Bond Market**: U.S. Treasury yields declined at the short end and rose at the long end, with the 1-year yield down to 3.48% and the 10-year yield up to 4.18%. Chinese government bond yields also declined at the short end and rose slightly at the long end, with the 1-year yield down to 1.34% and the 10-year yield up to 1.85% [8][18]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The U.S. dollar index declined, and the RMB appreciated, with the onshore exchange rate rising to around 6.99 [8][22]. - **Commodity Market**: Crude oil prices fell to $60.9 per barrel. Domestic commodity prices rose after fluctuations, while overseas commodity prices fell overall. Among domestic commodities, non-ferrous metals and precious metals led the gains, while agricultural products and energy prices declined [26]. Fund Market Performance - **Fund Performance**: Except for QDII funds, equity funds had the highest overall gains, and flexible allocation funds had relatively large increases [33]. - **Fund Issuance**: The total fund issuance scale in December was 112.9 billion yuan, a 19% increase from the previous month. The issuance scale of equity funds was 32.3 billion yuan, a 29% decrease from the previous month, accounting for 29% of the total issuance [33]. - **Fund Capital Flow**: ETF funds had a net inflow of 241.41 billion yuan (excluding money market funds), and LOF funds had a net inflow of 4.37 billion yuan. Among ETF funds, equity products had a net inflow of 104.98 billion yuan, and bond products had a net inflow of 111.98 billion yuan. Among LOF funds, equity products had a net inflow of 360 million yuan [39]. - **Active Equity Fund Style**: The overall position of active equity funds increased exposure to quality and dividend styles and decreased exposure to prosperity and value potential styles [40]. 2026 January Outlook Overseas Environment - In December 2025, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, and the market expects the Fed to continue the rate-cutting process in 2026. U.S. long-term bond yields rose [48]. Domestic Environment - The private sector financing growth rate turned upward, inflation factors continued to rise, and the fundamental model triggered an economic recovery signal, suggesting an increase in the allocation of equity assets [51]. Timing Strategy Review - In 2025, the timing strategy based on comprehensive fundamental, market sentiment, and momentum factors had a winning rate of 73%, a cumulative excess return of 4.7%, and a maximum drawdown of only 5% [54]. Trading Perspective - The stock market odds are close to the three-year average, and the A-share market sentiment index shows that the sentiment indicators for the equity market in the next month fluctuated sharply in December and have not yet recovered to the optimistic range [55][59]. Market Style - **Growth Value Style**: The growth value style rotation model recommends the growth style as market factors, U.S. Treasury yields, and style momentum all favor growth [65]. - **Size Style**: The size style rotation model recommends the small-cap style as the credit environment and long- and short-term style momentum favor small caps, although the monetary environment favors large caps [68]. Hong Kong Stock Market - The model based on macro comprehensive indicators turns bullish on Hong Kong stocks as more macro indicators are bullish this month [77]. Domestic Bond Market - Short-term liquidity tightened, long-term interest rates rose, and short-term bonds offer better opportunities than long-term bonds [80]. Fund Allocation Strategy - Increase the allocation of equity assets, focus on small-cap and growth styles in the short term, pay attention to relatively stable "固收+" funds and short-duration bond funds, and recommend specific funds such as Dongwu Mobile Internet (001323.OF), CITIC Prudential Multi-Strategy (165531.OF), etc. [2][82].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of December 31, recent two - week ETF products showed good performance, with the Science and Technology Innovation 100 having the largest increase among domestic major broad - based ETFs, and the military - themed ETF having the largest increase among industry and theme products [3][4][11] - In the recent two weeks, the CSI A500 ETF had a significant inflow of funds among domestic major broad - based ETFs, and the CSI 1000, CSI 500, and Science and Technology Innovation 100 ETFs also ranked high in net inflows [4][11] - In the recent two weeks, funds in cycle and large - manufacturing other ETFs accelerated their inflow, while the inflow of funds in dividend and pharmaceutical ETFs slowed down. Consumption, new - energy, and technology ETFs turned to net outflows, and the net outflow of financial - real - estate ETFs slowed down, while the military ETF's funds accelerated their outflow [4][18] - In the bond ETF sector, the funds of the policy - financial bond ETF turned from net inflow to net outflow, the national bond ETF's funds turned to net inflow, the net inflow of local - government bond ETFs slowed down, the credit - bond ETF's funds accelerated their net inflow, the net outflow of the short - term financing ETF slowed down, and the convertible - bond ETF's funds accelerated their net outflow [4] - As of December 31, 15 new ETFs were established in the market in the recent two weeks, with a total issuance of 3.982 billion shares, all being stock ETFs. Compared with the end of 2024, the scale of various types of ETFs increased, with the bond ETF, commodity ETF, industry + dividend ETF, QDII - ETF, and broad - based ETF increasing by 376.52%, 230.98%, 111.47%, 61.13%, and 18.62% respectively [4][26] Summary by Relevant Catalog ETF Market Review 1.1 Main Types of ETF Fund Flows Overview - In terms of returns, as of December 31, the Science and Technology Innovation 100 had the largest increase among domestic major broad - based ETFs in the recent two weeks, and the military - themed ETF had the largest increase among industry and theme products [4][11] - In terms of fund flows, in the recent two weeks, the CSI A500 ETF had a significant inflow of funds among domestic major broad - based ETFs, and the CSI 1000, CSI 500, and Science and Technology Innovation 100 ETFs also ranked high in net inflows [4][11] 1.2 Main Types of ETF Cumulative Fund Flows - **Broad - based ETFs**: In 2025, the funds of major broad - based ETFs changed from outflow to inflow and then to outflow, with a significant inflow at the end of the year. In April, there was a large inflow of funds into broad - based ETFs such as the CSI 300 ETF, and then all types of broad - based ETFs had continuous outflows. In mid - to late December, there was a large inflow of funds into the CSI A500 ETF. In 2025, the CSI 1000/CSI 2000 had the highest cumulative net inflow of funds, followed by the CSI 300 and CSI 500 ETFs, while the Science/Innovation ETFs and A - series ETFs had cumulative net outflows. In the recent two weeks, the funds of major broad - based ETFs continued to have a net inflow as a whole, with the A - series and CSI 1000/CSI 2000 accelerating their net inflow, the net - inflow speed of the CSI 500 ETF slowing down, the CSI 300 and Science/Innovation ETFs turning to net outflows, and the Shanghai Composite 50 ETF accelerating its net outflow [12] - **Industry and Theme ETFs**: In 2025, the technology - themed ETF had the highest cumulative net inflow of funds, followed by the financial - real - estate ETF. Except for the military - themed ETF, all other industry - theme ETFs had cumulative net inflows. After a large outflow at the beginning of the year, the technology ETF turned to inflow since March, and in the recent two weeks, the funds turned to a large net outflow. In the recent two weeks, funds in cycle and large - manufacturing other ETFs accelerated their inflow, while the inflow of funds in dividend and pharmaceutical ETFs slowed down. Consumption and new - energy ETFs turned to net outflows, and the net outflow of financial - real - estate ETFs slowed down, while the military ETF's funds accelerated their outflow [18] - **Bond ETFs**: Since 2025, the credit - bond ETF had the highest net inflow of funds, followed by the national bond ETF. In the recent two weeks, the funds of the policy - financial bond ETF turned from net inflow to net outflow, the national bond ETF's funds turned to net inflow, the net inflow of local - government bond ETFs slowed down, the credit - bond ETF's funds accelerated their net inflow, the net outflow of the short - term financing ETF slowed down, and the convertible - bond ETF's funds accelerated their net outflow [18] 1.3 ETF Product Structure Distribution - **Newly Issued Products**: As of December 31, 15 new ETFs were established in the market in the recent two weeks, with a total issuance of 3.982 billion shares, all being stock ETFs [4][26] - **Product Scale**: Compared with the end of 2024, the scale of various types of ETFs increased, with the bond ETF, commodity ETF, industry + dividend ETF, QDII - ETF, and broad - based ETF increasing by 376.52%, 230.98%, 111.47%, 61.13%, and 18.62% respectively [4][26] 1.4 Manager Scale Distribution - As of December 31, Huaxia Fund had the largest on - exchange ETF scale of 95.6917 billion yuan, and the ETF management scale of Huaxia and E Fund expanded by more than 29 billion yuan compared with one year ago [27] Sub - type ETF Tracking - **Technology Theme ETF**: In the recent two weeks, products tracking satellite communications had the highest net inflow of funds, while products tracking the Guozheng Chip had a net outflow [31] - **Dividend Theme ETF**: In the recent two weeks, products tracking low - volatility dividends had the highest net inflow of funds, while products tracking the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect High - Dividend - Yield Index had a net outflow [34] - **Consumption Theme ETF**: Products tracking the S&P 500 Consumer Select Index had a relatively high premium rate; ETFs tracking the CSI Tourism Index had the highest net inflow of funds in the recent two weeks, while products tracking the CSI Animal Husbandry Index had a net outflow [37] - **Pharmaceutical Theme ETF**: ETFs tracking the CSI Medical Index had the highest net inflow of funds in the recent two weeks, while products tracking medical devices had a net outflow [40] - **Large - manufacturing Theme ETF**: Products tracking the robot industry had the highest net inflow of funds in the recent two weeks, while products tracking the CSI Military Industry Index had a net outflow [43] - **QDII ETF**: Products tracking the Hang Seng Technology Index had the highest net inflow of funds in the recent two weeks, while ETF products tracking the Hang Seng Index had a net outflow [46] Popular Theme ETF Tracking 3.1 AI Theme ETF Tracking - **Return Performance**: Most AI - themed products rose in the recent two weeks, with an average return of 3.10%. The products tracking the Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship AI had the largest increase [57] - **Fund Flows**: Since 2025, the funds had an overall net inflow. There was a large inflow from mid - February to April, a continuous outflow from May to August, and a large inflow since mid - August. In the recent two weeks, there was a net outflow of 2.878 billion yuan [57] 3.2 Robot Theme ETF Tracking - **Return Performance**: Robot - themed products performed well in the recent two weeks, with an average return of 9.85%. The products tracking the robot industry had the largest increase [61] - **Fund Flows**: After February 2025, the funds showed a rapid inflow trend as a whole. In the recent two weeks, there was a net inflow of 1.83 billion yuan [61] 3.3 New - energy Theme ETF Tracking - **Return Performance**: Most new - energy - themed products rose in the recent two weeks, with an average return of 3.14%. The products tracking new - energy vehicles had the largest increase [67] - **Fund Flows**: There was a continuous outflow before August 2025, a large inflow from August to October, and a large outflow since late October. In the recent two weeks, there was a net outflow of 1.118 billion yuan [67] 3.4 Central Huijin, Guoxin, and Chengtong Holdings ETF Tracking - **Holding Scale**: As of June 30, 2025, the scale of ETFs held by Central Huijin, Guoxin, and Chengtong totaled 391.336 billion shares [72] - **Fund Flows**: In the recent two weeks, there was a net inflow of 4.992 billion yuan. In the recent two weeks, the Southern CSI 500 ETF, Huaxia CSI 1000 ETF, and Southern CSI 1000 ETF ranked high in terms of fund inflow [72]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [29]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the national government will continue to support the renewal of medical equipment in 2026, which is expected to drive demand in the medical device sector. The focus is on high-end equipment and companies with significant performance improvements and international expansion, such as Mindray Medical, United Imaging, Aohua Endoscopy, and Kaili Medical [3]. - The report emphasizes the optimization of application conditions and review processes for equipment renewal projects, aiming to lower investment thresholds and enhance support for small and medium-sized enterprises [3]. - The ongoing policy for equipment renewal is anticipated to sustain a favorable bidding environment for medical devices, with a gradual improvement in performance as inventory clears [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the government's announcement on December 30, 2025, regarding large-scale equipment renewal and the inclusion of various sectors, including healthcare, in the support framework for 2026 [3]. - It outlines the measures to improve the application process for equipment renewal, including stricter requirements for equipment depreciation and minimum usage periods [3]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies that are expected to show significant performance improvements and have a leading international presence in the medical device sector [3]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Mindray Medical, United Imaging, Aohua Endoscopy, and Kaili Medical, which are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated demand for high-end medical equipment [3]. Market Performance - The medical sector has experienced a decline, with a reported drop of 2.06% in the last week, ranking 25th among 28 industries [8][18]. - The report notes that the medical device market is under pressure in the short term due to policy impacts, but improvements are expected as companies innovate and expand internationally [5].

电力设备及新能源 2026 年 1 月 4 日 行业周报 宁德时代宣布规模应用钠电池，政策支持光伏知识产权保护 强于大市（维持） 证券分析师 | 李梦强 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060525090001 | | | LIMENGQIANG340@pingan.com.cn | | 皮秀 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060517070004 | | | PIXIU809@pingan.com.cn | | 张之尧 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060524070005 | | | ZHANGZHIYAO757@pingan.com.cn | 平安观点： 本周（2025.12.29-2025.12.31）新能源细分板块行情回顾。风电指数 （866044.WI）下跌 1.40%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.82 个百分点。截至本 周，风电板块 PE_TTM 估值约 25.62 倍。本周申万光伏设备指数 （801735.SI）下跌 3.29%，其中，申万光伏电池组件指数下跌 3.50%， 申万光伏加工设备指数上涨 2.15%，申万光伏辅材指数下跌 2.46% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the weakening of the US dollar and the improvement of risk appetite led to a steeper curve overseas, while in China, loose funds drove the yield curve to steepen. The bond market remained volatile due to the supply - demand contradiction at the long end [2]. - In 2026, the PPI is facing three positive factors: the tail - lifting factor, imported inflation, and the continued effectiveness of the "anti - involution" policy. Under the neutral scenario, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026 and reach around 1.2% by the end of the year. The mild re - inflation needs to resonate with other factors to significantly affect the bond market [3][55]. - Currently, the bond market is in a wait - and - see state. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term, lacking the motivation and space for trend trading. There are some structural opportunities, such as the follow - up rise opportunity of 5 - 7Y China Development Bank bonds and the compression opportunity of credit spreads [4]. Summary by Directory PART1: December 2025 - Curve Steepening Driven by Overseas and Domestic Factors Overseas - In December 2025, the Fed announced reserve management - style purchases (RMP) and continued to cut interest rates. The US dollar index weakened, liquidity improved, the US stock market rose, and risk appetite recovered. The US bond yield curve steepened due to factors like Fed's short - term bond purchase, market concerns about Fed independence, and rising commodity prices. Precious and industrial metals performed well, with copper benefiting from AI demand and gold and silver supported by geopolitical events [10][16]. Domestic - In November 2025, the domestic economic fundamentals showed a divergence between quantity and price, and in December, both supply and demand declined. The capital market was generally loose, and the overnight interest rate hit a new low for the year. The bond market remained volatile due to the long - end supply - demand contradiction, and the yield curve steepened [17][23]. - In terms of institutional behavior, large banks and insurance companies, as allocation players, increased their bond - buying in the secondary market in December. Large banks added some policy - related financial bonds and focused on 5 - 7 - year varieties. Insurance companies mainly added long - term treasury bonds. Trading players became conservative. Rural commercial banks mainly invested in certificates of deposit, funds reduced duration and mainly sold long - term treasury bonds, and wealth management products seasonally reduced bond allocation and slightly increased credit bond allocation [26][35][47]. PART2: How the 2026 Re - inflation Narrative May Affect the Bond Market 2026 PPI's Three Positive Factors - The tail - lifting factor can support the PPI to turn positive in the second half of 2026 even without new price - increasing factors [55]. - Imported inflation may occur as overseas capital expenditure and manufacturing investment are likely to rise in 2026. The US deficit rate may expand, and the Fed's new round of easing may release emerging market countries' capital expenditure demand [57]. - The "anti - involution" policy has shown a supporting effect on the PPI. Since August 2025, the month - on - month PPI of the mining industry has turned positive, driving the overall PPI to turn positive since October [60]. PPI Forecast under Different Scenarios - Under the pessimistic scenario, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second half of 2026 with an average monthly PPI growth rate of 0%. Under the neutral scenario, with a monthly average PPI growth rate of 0.1%, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026 and reach around 1.2% by the end of the year. Under the optimistic scenario, with a monthly average PPI growth rate of 0.2%, the PPI is expected to turn positive in April 2026 and exceed 2% in the second half of the year [67]. PPI's Impact on the Bond Market - Historically, during the four PPI upward cycles since 2009, three typical upward periods were driven by the resonance of domestic and overseas demand or supply - demand. The PPI and the bond market generally move in the same direction, but there were several periods of divergence, mainly due to strong economic recovery expectations or PPI being mainly affected by the supply side while the domestic demand did not improve significantly and the monetary policy remained loose [69][71]. - In 2026, the mild re - inflation needs to resonate with other factors such as total demand, central bank's capital management, financial institutions' liability - side stability, and the flow of activated household deposits to significantly affect the bond market. The trading of typical total assets based on re - inflation may have limited odds [78]. PART3: Bond Market Strategy for January 2026 - In January 2026, the bond market may still be in a wait - and - see period. Potential risks include government bond supply pressure, the spring rally in the equity market, and the first - quarter credit boom. Potential positive factors include the possible relaxation of large banks' bond - allocation pressure and the relatively loose capital market, with a higher probability of a reserve - requirement ratio cut than an interest - rate cut in January [81]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, lacking the motivation and space for trend trading. Structurally, there are opportunities such as the follow - up rise of 5 - 7Y China Development Bank bonds and the compression of credit spreads in credit bonds [4][83].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for the real estate sector is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][37] Core Insights - The real estate market is expected to continue its adjustment in 2025, with a projected 6% year-on-year decline in national sales for 2026. The overall transaction volume in 30 key cities is anticipated to decrease by 15% and 13% in terms of units and area, respectively, although the decline is expected to narrow compared to 2024 [4] - The report highlights that second-hand housing transactions are performing better than new housing, with a slight increase of 0.2% in transaction volume for the top ten cities, while new housing transactions are expected to decline by 19% [4] - Positive factors are accumulating, indicating a gradual recovery in the market, including a decrease in down payment ratios and mortgage rates, which are alleviating the financial burden on homebuyers [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures to stabilize the real estate market, with expectations for continued supportive policies in 2026 [4] Summary by Sections Market Outlook - The report anticipates a 6% decline in national real estate investment and sales in 2026, with an 8.5% drop in investment and a 6% drop in sales under a neutral scenario [4] - The article published in "Qiushi" discusses the need for sustained policy efforts to promote a healthy and stable real estate market [4] Policy Environment - Recent policy adjustments include a reduction in the value-added tax rate for personal housing sales and the issuance of guidelines for improving housing quality [10] - The report notes that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has set a goal for significant progress in housing quality improvement by 2030 [4][10] Market Performance - New housing transactions in 50 key cities saw a slight increase of 0.6% week-on-week, while second-hand housing transactions decreased by 33.7% [5][13] - As of January 2, 2026, the inventory of newly built homes in 16 cities decreased by 1.5%, with a de-stocking cycle of 21.1 months [5][16] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines of investment: 1. Real estate companies with low historical burdens and strong product capabilities, such as China Resources Land and China Overseas Development [4] 2. Hong Kong real estate firms benefiting from market stabilization, such as Sun Hung Kai Properties [4] 3. Companies with stable cash flow and dividends, including China Resources Vientiane Life and Poly Property [4]

证券研究报告 Manus即将加入Meta， AI Agent应用推广未来将有望加速 计算机行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所计算机团队 分析师： 闫磊 S1060517070006（证券投资咨询）YANLEI511@pingan.com.cn 2026年1月4日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 黄韦涵 S1060523070003（证券投资咨询）HUANGWEIHAN235@pingan.com.cn 刘云坤 S1060525120004（证券投资咨询）LIUYUNKUN518@pingan.com.cn Manus即将加入Meta，AI Agent应用推广未来将有望加速 事件描述：北京时间12月30日，Manus发布公告称，Manus即将加入Meta。 点评：Manus称，这是对Manus在通用AI Agent领域里工作的认可。根据Manus公告信息，自发布以来，Manus 专注于构建通用型 AI Agent，帮助用户高效完成研究、自动化和复杂任务。面对全球越来越多用户的使用需求，团队持续迭代产品，努力使 Manus 在实际使用中更实用、更可靠。根据2025年12月初统计的数据，上线至今，Manus 已处理超 ...

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to see a spring rally, with thematic growth breaking through despite mixed signals from the global economy and domestic indicators [2] - The manufacturing PMI for December rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1, indicating a return to expansion [3][4] - The "old-for-new" policy and optimization of real estate policies are expected to further support domestic demand [2] Recent Dynamics - The manufacturing PMI increased to 50.1, with production and new orders indices both above 50, indicating improved business conditions [3][4] - The construction PMI rose significantly by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8, reflecting a strong recovery in the construction sector [4] - The service sector PMI also showed slight improvement, rising to 49.7, indicating a gradual recovery [4] Policy Tracking - The 2026 "old-for-new" policy aims to support the replacement of old vehicles and appliances, with a focus on smart products and mid-to-high-end automobiles [5][6] - The reduction of the personal housing sales value-added tax rate is expected to enhance the activity in the second-hand housing market [6] - The central bank's measures to strengthen the digital RMB management system are set to enhance financial services [6] Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.13%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.25% [15] - Key sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, defense, and media led the gains, with increases of 3.92%, 3.05%, and 2.13% respectively [13][15] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market rose to approximately 2.1 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.3% increase week-on-week [15][17]

石油石化 2026 年 1 月 4 日 石油石化周报 油价短期或有支撑，关注美委局势升级和 OPEC+增产态度 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 24-01 24-03 24-05 24-07 24-09 24-11 25-01 25-03 25-05 25-07 25-09 25-11 沪深300 石油石化 基础化工 证券分析师 核心观点： 行 业 报 告 行 业 报 告 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 告 告 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523110001 chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 石油石化：美委地缘局势升级，叠加市场预期 OPEC+将维持暂停增 产立场，或对油价形成一定支撑。据 ifind 数据，2025 年 12 月 26 日 -2026 年 1 月 2 日，WTI 原油期货收盘价上涨 0.62%，布伦特油期货 价保持不变。地缘政治方面 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][54]. Core Views - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, which may enhance the strategic resource pricing of metals. The gold market is expected to maintain its safe-haven appeal due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the unresolved U.S. debt issue, leading to a potential long-term increase in gold prices [4]. - Industrial metals are anticipated to see an upward trend in pricing due to increased financial attributes and tightening supply conditions, particularly for copper and aluminum [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Nonferrous Metal Index Trends - As of December 31, 2025, the nonferrous metal index closed at 9342.49 points, up 0.4% month-on-month. The precious metal index decreased by 2.2%, while the industrial metal index increased by 2.1% [10]. 2. Precious Metals 2.1 Gold - As of December 31, the COMEX gold futures contract was priced at $4341.9 per ounce, down 4.8% month-on-month. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.6% to 1065 tons. The report suggests that the recent price drop is a short-term adjustment in a longer-term upward trend for gold prices [4]. 3. Industrial Metals 3.1 Copper - The SHFE copper futures contract was priced at 98,240 RMB per ton as of December 31, down 0.49% month-on-month. Domestic copper social inventory reached 238,900 tons, while LME copper inventory was at 145,000 tons. The report indicates a tightening supply expectation for copper, with a potential upward revaluation of copper prices in the medium term [6]. 3.2 Aluminum - The SHFE aluminum futures contract rose by 2.3% to 22,925 RMB per ton as of December 31. Domestic aluminum social inventory was 684,000 tons, with LME aluminum inventory at 509,300 tons. The report anticipates that aluminum prices will maintain a high-level fluctuation due to a supportive macro environment [6]. 3.3 Tin - The SHFE tin futures contract fell by 4.6% to 322,900 RMB per ton as of December 31. Domestic tin social inventory was 8,520 tons, and LME tin inventory was 5,415 tons. Supply concerns due to geopolitical issues in the Congo and regulatory tightening in Indonesia are expected to keep the tin market tight [6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following sectors: - **Gold**: Continued geopolitical uncertainty supports gold's safe-haven status. Recommended stock: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. - **Copper**: Domestic demand recovery and tightening supply conditions suggest a positive outlook. Recommended stock: Luoyang Molybdenum. - **Aluminum**: Strong demand against weak supply conditions may drive aluminum prices higher. Recommended stock: Tianshan Aluminum [7][51].