证券研究报告 "核心区+好产品"率先止跌回稳，重申 关注中线布局 行业评级：地产 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所地产团队 2025年6月9日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 地产行业周报 核心摘要 2 周度观点：核心区及好房子率先止跌回稳逐步被验证及市场接受。本周受端午假期影响，重点50城新房备案口径成交环比降33.4%，尽 管短期成交存在波折，但随着核心城市核心区供需格局改善，叠加过去限价带来的优质住房相对稀缺，"核心区+好产品"正率先止跌 回稳。随着半年末房企加大营销力度及优质房源供应，预计短期成交环比有望恢复上行，但同比由于上年高基数或小幅下滑。 短期结构性复苏有望延续，中期为产品力与拿地能力的竞争。当前市场主要担忧在于：1）核心区供给有限、年内诞生多个"地王"， 房企能否获取充足货量及保障利润率；2）随着好房子供应增加，是否会步入新的价格战，进而影响去化或利润率。我们认为短期无需 过度担忧：1）主要房企销售规模及利润较高点已明显回落，边际增量优质项目带来业绩弹性较大；2）当前高价地主要集中核心城市 核心区，供应仍相对有限，且得益于限价放开与得房率提升，预计去化率有望维持高位。中期将是产品力、拿地能力的 ...

其 他 报 告 2025年06月09日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3385 | 0.04 | 1.13 | | 深证成份指数 | 10184 | -0.19 | 1.42 | | 沪深300指数 | 3874 | -0.09 | 0.88 | | 创业板指数 | 2039 | -0.45 | 2.32 | | 上证国债指数 | 225 | 0.03 | 0.08 | | 上证基金指数 | 6915 | 0.00 | 0.17 | | | | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | | | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 23793 | -0.48 | 2.16 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8630 | -0.63 | 2.34 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 21661 | -0.06 | 1.47 | | 道琼斯指数 | 42763 | 1.0 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (expected to outperform the market index by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [66] Core Views - The macroeconomic outlook is marginally improving, which is expected to elevate the price center of industrial metals [4] - For precious metals, particularly gold, the resilience of the U.S. labor market is anticipated to support a long-term bullish trend for gold, driven by ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and a weakening U.S. dollar [3][6] - In the copper market, domestic demand is gradually recovering, and the global demand for refined copper is expected to open up long-term growth opportunities [6] - The aluminum sector is expected to see prices rise due to a supply-demand imbalance, with domestic demand anticipated to grow under supportive policies [6] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown a slight increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.54% to $3,331 per ounce as of June 6 [3] - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 0.4% to 934.2 tons, indicating a stable demand for gold amid macroeconomic uncertainties [3] Industrial Metals Copper - As of June 6, LME copper futures rose by 1.8% to $9,670.5 per ton, with domestic copper social inventory at 148,800 tons, reflecting a slight increase [5] - The LME copper inventory stood at 132,400 tons, showing a positive trend in demand resilience [5] Aluminum - LME aluminum futures increased by 0.1% to $2,451.5 per ton, with domestic aluminum social inventory at 504,000 tons, indicating a slight decrease [5] - The global electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to decline, supporting price stability [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors due to their favorable market conditions [6] - Specific companies to watch include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining for gold, Zijin Mining for copper, and Tianshan Aluminum for aluminum [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Insights - The oil and petrochemical sector is experiencing short-term impacts on crude oil production due to wildfires in Canada, while Saudi Arabia expresses intentions to accelerate production increases [6]. - The WTI crude oil futures price increased by 6.70% and Brent oil futures rose by 4.30% during the specified period [6]. - Geopolitical tensions, including ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding nuclear issues and escalating conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, are contributing to fluctuations in international oil prices [6]. - The U.S. is seeing a notable increase in gasoline and jet fuel demand as the summer travel season begins, which may support a rebound in refined oil product demand [6]. - The report highlights that Canadian wildfires have led to a shutdown of approximately 350,000 barrels per day of heavy crude oil production, representing about 7% of the country's oil output, which has temporarily boosted oil prices [6]. - Saudi Arabia aims to increase OPEC+ production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August and September to regain lost market share, which may exacerbate global oil supply surplus pressures [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - The report discusses the short-term impact of Canadian wildfires on crude oil production and Saudi Arabia's intent to accelerate production increases [6][7]. - It tracks fundamental data related to crude oil and refining industries, noting the trends in inventory and production [15][24]. Fluorochemicals - The report indicates that domestic demand is driven by national subsidies, with refrigerant prices remaining high due to supply constraints [6][7]. - It notes that the production of second-generation refrigerants is expected to decrease, while demand from the air conditioning and automotive sectors is projected to grow significantly [6][7]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing a positive trend with inventory reduction and improving end-market fundamentals, suggesting a potential upward cycle [7][72]. - The report recommends focusing on companies within this sector that are positioned to benefit from domestic substitution trends [7][72].

Core Insights - The bond custody scale maintained rapid growth in April 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.5%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from March. The newly added custody scale was 1.7 trillion yuan, showing a marginal decline month-on-month but remaining at a historically high level [2][5]. Group 1: Bond Market Overview - Government bonds and interbank certificates of deposit saw a seasonal increase, while treasury bonds experienced a seasonal decrease. The total supply of government bonds (including treasury and local government bonds) approached 1 trillion yuan in April, which is consistent with seasonal patterns, and remains higher than the same period last year [5]. - Major institutional investors included banks and asset management accounts. Commercial banks increased their holdings by 797.5 billion yuan, while insurance companies added 167.3 billion yuan, primarily increasing local government bonds. Asset management accounts increased by 1.1 trillion yuan, mainly in interbank certificates of deposit [5][6]. Group 2: Future Outlook - It is expected that bond supply in May will increase compared to April. The ability of banks to absorb this supply will depend on the liquidity provided by the central bank. Insurance companies are anticipated to adjust their bond allocation rhythm in line with local government bond supply [6]. - Asset management accounts are expected to see a recovery in funding increments, with a potential for continued stable growth in wealth management scale if liquidity remains loose [6]. Group 3: New Stock Issuance - Upcoming new stock issuances include companies like Xin Heng Hui and Hua Zhi Jie, with issuance dates in June 2025. The issuance prices range from 0.80 yuan to 11.50 yuan, with various underwriting firms involved [7]. Group 4: Industry News - In April 2025, the import value of automotive parts reached 1.7 billion USD, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10% but a year-on-year decrease of 28.1% [11]. - According to Counterpoint, the global new energy vehicle battery installation volume is expected to grow by 22% year-on-year in 2024, with Chinese manufacturers capturing over 70% of the market share [12]. Group 5: Company Announcements - Jiuan Medical plans to register and issue medium-term notes and short-term financing bonds, with a total registration amount not exceeding 3.5 billion yuan [13]. - Zhongke Electric intends to invest up to 8 billion yuan in an integrated lithium-ion battery anode material project in Oman, with a planned annual production capacity of 200,000 tons [15]. - Aeston is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [16]. - Li New Energy is set to invest approximately 1.25 billion yuan in three independent energy storage projects [18].

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic market shows a slight improvement with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3376, up by 0.42% on the day, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.87% [1] - The overseas market also reflects positive trends, with the Dow Jones Index rising by 0.51% and the S&P 500 Index increasing by 0.58% [2] Group 2: Economic Policy and Trends - The report highlights that the Politburo meeting at the end of April clarified the direction of future economic policies, leading to a coordinated effort in financial and industrial policies [3][8] - Since May, the uncertainty in the overseas environment has gradually decreased, indicating an improvement in both internal and external market conditions [3][8] Group 3: Industry Insights - In the food and beverage sector, companies are focusing on strategic transformations and high-quality development, particularly in the high-end liquor market, which is expected to benefit from a recovering consumption environment [4][14] - The beverage industry is seeing innovation with new product launches aimed at meeting diverse consumer demands, particularly in the beer, soft drink, and snack segments as the peak season approaches [14] Group 4: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market is currently in a fluctuating state, with the yield on 10-year government bonds rising by 0.8 basis points to 1.68% [5][15] - The report suggests that the bond market remains in a range of 1.65% to 1.70%, with opportunities for investment at the upper end of this range [5][15] Group 5: Sector-Specific Opportunities - The report identifies several sectors that may benefit from policy support, including consumer goods, automotive, and renewable energy, with a focus on high-quality development and innovation [10][11][12] - The TMT sector is expected to accelerate domestic supply chain replacement due to new export controls from the U.S., while the pharmaceutical sector is witnessing a transformation with Chinese innovative drugs gaining global traction [12]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "2025 April Institutional Behavior Thinking: Improving Liquidity Environment, Slow Supply of New Special Bonds" and is written by the Fixed Income Team of Ping An Securities Research Institute [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - In April 2025, the bond custody balance increased at a year - on - year rate of 15.5%, 0.6 percentage points higher than in March. The monthly new custody scale was 1.7 trillion yuan, remaining at a high level in the same historical period [3][4] - It is expected that the bond supply in May will increase compared to April. The new special bond issuance is slower than in previous years, and there is still supply pressure [39][40] - Banks are expected to maintain their bond - increasing strength, but their ability to absorb supply depends on the central bank's liquidity injection. Insurance is expected to adjust its bond - allocation rhythm according to local government bond supply. The capital increment of asset management accounts is expected to recover [3][43][51] Group 4: Bond Custody Scale - In April 2025, the bond custody balance had a year - on - year growth rate of 15.5%, up 0.6 percentage points from March. The new custody scale was 1.7 trillion yuan, which, although showing a marginal decline month - on - month, was at a high level in the same historical period [3][4] Group 5: Bond Supply by Type - Government bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) increased more than the seasonal average, while treasury bonds increased less. In April, local government bonds and inter - bank CDs increased by 5218 billion yuan and 1668 billion yuan more than the seasonal average respectively, and treasury bonds increased by 825 billion yuan less [8] - The total supply of government bonds (treasury bonds + local bonds) in April was close to 1 trillion yuan, showing a seasonal decline compared to March. However, both treasury bonds and local bonds were higher than the previous year [11] - The net supply of inter - bank CDs in April was 377.9 billion yuan, a significant decline from March, indicating an improvement in banks' asset - liability situation. The supply of corporate credit bonds was 224.2 billion yuan, returning to a high level in previous years [14] Group 6: Bond Allocation by Institutions - Banks and asset management accounts were the main institutions increasing bond holdings. Commercial banks increased their holdings by 797.5 billion yuan. After adjusting for the central bank's reverse repurchase scale in April, the actual purchase amount was in line with the seasonal pattern. Insurance increased holdings by 167.3 billion yuan, 70.9 billion yuan more than the seasonal average, mainly adding local government bonds. Asset management accounts increased holdings by 1.1 trillion yuan, 408.9 billion yuan more than the seasonal average, mainly increasing inter - bank CDs. Foreign investors increased holdings by 88.1 billion yuan, 120.8 billion yuan more than the seasonal average, mainly adding treasury bonds. Securities firms increased holdings by 183.5 billion yuan, 394.7 billion yuan more than the seasonal average, mainly adding treasury bonds [3][18] - Within asset management accounts, wealth management products concentrated on increasing inter - bank CDs from March to April, while funds showed a growing preference for credit bonds [29] Group 7: Outlook - It is expected that the bond supply in May will increase compared to April. The issuance of new special bonds is slower than in previous years, and there is still supply pressure [39][40] - Banks are expected to maintain their bond - increasing strength, but their ability to absorb supply depends on the central bank's liquidity injection. Insurance is expected to adjust its bond - allocation rhythm according to local government bond supply. The capital increment of asset management accounts is expected to recover. If the liquidity injection remains loose, the scale of wealth management products is expected to continue to grow steadily, and funds may still have room to increase bond holdings through leverage [3][43][51]

食品饮料周报 饮品旺季临近，产业端多维创新 证券研究报告 食品饮料行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 食品饮料团队 分析师：张晋溢 S1060521030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 分析师：王萌 S1060522030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 分析师：王星云 S1060523100001（证券投资咨询） 食品饮料周报-观点 资料来源：iFind，平安证券研究所 本周白酒指数（中信）累计涨跌幅-2.80%。涨跌幅前三的个股为： *ST岩石（+4.71%）、天佑德酒（+3.88%）、伊力特 （+1.17%）；涨跌幅后三的个股为迎驾贡酒（-3.51%）、山西汾酒（-4.01%）、泸州老窖（-4.04%）。 观点：酒企务实求真，加大战略转型。上周白酒股东大会集中召开，据微酒，在行业调整周期中，多家酒企提出将加大战略转型， 聚焦高质量发展，同时加大年轻消费者培育，体现出务实的态度。展望未来，我们期待政策助力下，消费环境回暖，标的上推荐三 条主线，一是需求坚挺的高端白酒；二是全国化持续推进的次高端白酒；三 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The equity market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, supported by the continuous effects of domestic policies and the strengthening of fundamental resilience [2][8] - The report suggests focusing on high-growth industries and quality dividend assets, with three main investment themes: domestic technology and high-end manufacturing, consumer quality assets benefiting from domestic demand expansion policies, and quality dividend assets with long-term investment value [2][8] Group 2: Recommendations - The report recommends ten key stocks for June: Qianhong Pharmaceutical, Dongcheng Pharmaceutical, Yanjing Beer, Shenxinfeng, Foxit Software, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, China Pacific Insurance, and China Shenhua Energy [2][8] Group 3: Precious and Industrial Metals - Gold prices experienced a slight decline due to uncertainties in U.S. policies and trade negotiations, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to the weakening of U.S. dollar credit [10][11] - Copper demand is gradually recovering domestically, with a tight supply of copper concentrate, indicating a potential upward trend in copper prices [10][11] - Aluminum prices are expected to rise due to a strong demand-supply imbalance, with domestic aluminum inventory decreasing significantly [11][12] Group 4: Computer Industry Insights - DeepSeek R1 has completed a minor version upgrade, enhancing its performance in complex reasoning tasks, while NVIDIA reported a significant revenue increase driven by strong global AI computing demand [14][15] - The computer industry index rose by 1.77%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, indicating a positive market trend [14][15] Group 5: Real Estate Market Trends - New home sales in key cities showed a month-on-month increase, with expectations for continued recovery as developers ramp up marketing efforts [20][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of "good products" and core areas in stabilizing the market, with a focus on companies with strong product capabilities and optimized inventory structures [21][22] Group 6: Renewable Energy Sector - The offshore wind power projects in Guangdong are expected to accelerate, indicating new investment opportunities in the offshore wind industry [26][27] - The report highlights the increasing trend of BC technology in the photovoltaic sector, with companies like Longi and Aishuo launching innovative products to meet diverse customer needs [28][29] Group 7: Financial Sector Analysis - The growth rate of corporate loans remains low, while personal loans show steady growth, indicating a cautious lending environment [34][35] - The report notes that the issuance of government bonds is accelerating, impacting the overall loan growth rate, with a focus on industrial and infrastructure loans [34][35]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - As the mid-year sprint approaches, transaction volume is expected to continue its month-on-month recovery. In May, the number of new homes sold in 50 key cities decreased by 5.3% year-on-year but increased by 9.1% month-on-month. The top 100 real estate companies managed a total of 294.58 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 3.5% [3] - The report emphasizes that "good products" and "core areas in first and second-tier cities" are likely to stabilize first. Although the real estate market in some cities has slightly cooled down in Q2 2025, there is no need for excessive concern. Factors such as sufficient adjustment time in the market and recent interest rate cuts are expected to ease home-buying pressure [3] - Short-term market fluctuations are anticipated, but investors are advised to focus on medium-term positioning. The trend of stabilization in "good products" and "core areas" remains unchanged, with some hot cities expected to recover in Q4 2024 [3] Market Monitoring - New home transactions in key cities showed a month-on-month increase, with 22,000 new homes sold in the week of May 24-30, up 5.8% from the previous week. However, second-hand home transactions in 20 key cities decreased by 9.4% [9] - Inventory slightly decreased, with a total of 91.32 million square meters in 16 cities, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.1% and a de-stocking cycle of 18.4 months [12] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a 0.95% increase last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 1.08%. The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the real estate sector is 39.43 times, placing it in the 95.64th percentile over the past five years [18] - The issuance of domestic real estate bonds increased to 4.91 billion yuan last week, with a net financing amount that also rose [15] Individual Stock Recommendations - Companies to watch include those with lighter historical burdens and strong product capabilities, such as China Overseas Development, China Resources Land, and Poly Development. Additionally, companies like New Town Holdings and Vanke A are recommended for valuation recovery [3][24]