Investment Rating - The report indicates a current investment rating for the pharmaceutical sector, with the overall valuation at 30.1 times earnings, ranking 10th among 31 primary industries [3][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decline of 2.5% in the Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index, which underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's decline of 1.5% and the overall A-share market's decline of 4.2% [3][5]. - Key events include BMS's acquisition of Orbital Therapeutics for $1.5 billion, which includes a candidate drug for CAR-T therapy and proprietary RNA platform technology [4][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the 2025 ESMO conference, where multiple Chinese pharmaceutical companies are expected to present clinical data, suggesting a focus on innovative drug sectors and companies with improving performance in medical devices and upstream sectors [4][18]. Market Performance Summary - The Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index fell by 2.5%, ranking 16th among 31 Shenwan primary sub-industries [3][5]. - The performance of various sub-sectors includes: - Raw materials (-2.3%) - Chemical preparations (-1.7%) - Traditional Chinese medicine (+0.4%) - Blood products (-1.6%) - Vaccines (-3.3%) - Other biological products (-3.6%) - Medical equipment (-5.4%) - Medical consumables (-1.7%) - In vitro diagnostics (-0.4%) - Pharmaceutical distribution (-1.5%) - Offline pharmacies (+0.6%) - Medical R&D outsourcing (-6.5%) - Hospitals (-1.5%) [3][8][5]. Key Events Review - BMS's acquisition of Orbital Therapeutics includes a candidate drug for CAR-T therapy and advanced RNA technology [4][13]. - The approval of a new indication for Peginterferon by Teva Biopharma enhances its market competitiveness in hepatitis B treatment [4][14]. - Mindray Medical announced plans to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to support its international strategy [4][15]. - The report suggests monitoring companies presenting at the 2025 ESMO conference, particularly those in the innovative drug sector and those with improving performance metrics [4][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported Q3 results that fell short of expectations due to the delivery rhythm of honeycomb materials, while transformers continued to show growth [7] - The company is experiencing a strong growth trajectory in the electrical insulation sector, with a significant market share increase in the domestic and international transformer markets [7] - Despite short-term challenges in the honeycomb core material sector, the long-term trend of domestic substitution remains intact, with stable growth in military and civil aviation sectors [7] - The company is expected to see more contributions from its investment projects in Q4, with new products projected to launch in early 2026 [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 343 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, and a net profit of 91.17 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.9% [6][7] - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 518 million yuan, 666 million yuan, and 820 million yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 133 million yuan, 174 million yuan, and 220 million yuan [6][9] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 40.4%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.8 percentage points [7] Market Data - As of October 17, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock was 39.19 yuan, with a market capitalization of 5,675 million yuan [2] - The stock has seen a one-year high of 56.84 yuan and a low of 16.05 yuan, with a price-to-book ratio of 7.4 and a dividend yield of 0.51% [2]

Core Insights - The report analyzes the behavior of institutions in the bond market since July 2025, focusing on their buying patterns and the implications for future bond market trends [11][12][26]. Group 1: Bond Market Weekly Review (2025/10/13-2025/10/17) - The bond market experienced fluctuations influenced by U.S.-China trade news and the performance of the stock market, leading to a flattening of the government bond yield curve [10]. - The yields for 30Y, 10Y, and 1Y government bonds changed by -3.26 basis points, +0.40 basis points, and +7.43 basis points respectively during this week [10]. Group 2: Bond Funds - Since the bond market adjustment began in July 2025, bond funds have exhibited a clear trend of chasing gains and cutting losses, with significant net sales of government bonds, policy bank bonds, and perpetual bonds amounting to CNY 877 billion, CNY 1,549 billion, and CNY 766 billion respectively [12][15]. - The duration of bond funds has gone through three phases: initially reluctant to reduce duration, then forced to sell long-term bonds due to redemption pressures, and finally showing a renewed speculative mindset as yields reached critical levels [20][21]. Group 3: Wealth Management Products - Wealth management products have remained stable in net value and liabilities, serving as a major buying force for credit bonds, with net purchases of medium-term notes, perpetual bonds, and short-term financing bonds totaling CNY 1,484 billion, CNY 1,428 billion, and CNY 677 billion respectively since July 2025 [26][31]. - These products have adopted multiple strategies to stabilize net value, resulting in minimal redemption pressure [26]. Group 4: Banks - Large banks have increased their net purchases of bonds, particularly long-term bonds, acting as a stabilizing force in the bond market, while smaller banks have shown a tendency to take profits [33][37]. - From July to September 2025, large banks net purchased government bonds primarily with maturities of 3Y or less, expanding to 5Y and 10Y bonds in subsequent months [33][34]. Group 5: Insurance - Insurance companies have been cautious in their bond purchases, preferring to invest in 30Y government bonds and local government bonds rather than 10Y bonds due to the lack of expected yield declines [44][45]. - There has been a noticeable increase in equity allocations among large insurance firms, indicating a shift in asset allocation strategies [45][47]. Group 6: Bond Market Strategy - The current market shows a need for continued observation of institutional buying behavior, with a heavy speculative mindset persisting despite a decrease in trading congestion [53]. - The report suggests that the 10Y government bond yield may range between 1.75% and 1.90% (excluding tax) in the near term, with a recommendation to continue reducing duration [53].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting optimism for the "Good House" policy and the revaluation of commercial real estate [4][31]. Core Insights - The report indicates a narrowing decline in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, with significant month-on-month increases in new home sales across major cities [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the impact of low mortgage rates and various local government initiatives aimed at revitalizing urban areas and improving housing affordability [31][32]. - The analysis suggests that the current monetary easing cycle favors commercial real estate, with a notable revaluation of quality commercial properties beginning to manifest [4][31]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities reached 2.604 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 166%, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 170% increase [5][8]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in October are down 24%, with first and second-tier cities down 22% and third and fourth-tier cities down 43% [8][9]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities is approximately 90.1 million square meters, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.2% [23][24]. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China reports that the average mortgage rate remains low at around 3.1%, down 25 basis points year-on-year [31][32]. - Various local policies have been implemented, such as tax reductions for housing rental companies in Beijing and optimized loan policies in Chengdu [31][32]. - The report notes significant land sales, including a residential land transaction in Nanjing for 1.32 billion yuan and multiple land sales in Chengdu totaling over 2.5 billion yuan [31][32]. Company Dynamics - Sales data for major real estate companies show a mixed performance, with China Jinmao reporting a 6% increase in sales volume, while other companies like Gemdale and Poly Developments show significant declines [4][36]. - Financing activities include Huafa's issuance of convertible bonds worth 4.8 billion yuan and various companies providing loan guarantees for subsidiaries [36][39]. - The report highlights the performance of the real estate sector, with the SW Real Estate Index declining by 2.35%, underperforming compared to the broader market [43][44].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [20]. Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of smart city infrastructure as a key focus, emphasizing the development of intelligent municipal facilities, smart residential areas, and digital home construction [11][12]. - The construction sector is currently experiencing weak overall demand, but regional investments are expected to gain momentum as national strategies are further implemented [11][12]. Industry Performance - The SW Building Decoration Index decreased by 1.67%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which fell by 2.22% [2][4]. - The best-performing sub-industries for the week were decoration curtain walls (+3.44%), steel structures (+2.32%), and design consulting (+0.47%) [4][8]. - Year-to-date, the top-performing sub-industries include infrastructure private enterprises (+53.40%), ecological landscaping (+36.59%), and decoration curtain walls (+33.09%) [4][8]. Key Company Developments - Shaanxi Construction Group won a bid for a 150MW wind power project in Guangxi, with a total contract value of 1.162 billion yuan, accounting for 0.77% of its 2024 revenue [11][12]. - Zhongyan Dadi secured a contract for a nuclear power plant project with a total value of 77 million yuan, representing 9.77% of its 2024 revenue [11][12]. - Major companies recommended for investment include China Chemical, China Railway, and China Railway Construction, with a focus on state-owned enterprises and private firms like Zhizhi New Materials and Honglu Steel Structure [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8] Core Views - The company's main brand revenue performance in Q3 is stable, with children's and online sales showing growth. The overall channel revenue for the main brand increased by a low single-digit percentage year-on-year, consistent with Q2's performance. Online sales outperformed offline, maintaining double-digit growth, while children's products outperformed adult products. Running and outdoor categories achieved double-digit growth, and functional products accounted for over 60% of the brand's offerings, stabilizing the core business [5][8] - The company is actively optimizing its channel structure and accelerating its layout in outlet stores. The new store formats have already exceeded 70% of the total store count, with a focus on high-end outlet malls. The company plans to expand its outlet store count to 70-100 by 2026, aligning with positive market trends in outlet channels [8][8] - The company is progressing steadily in its Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) transformation, planning to reclaim approximately 100 stores in Q4, with a total of 400 stores by the end of 2025. This move is expected to enhance long-term channel competitiveness [8] - The company is optimizing its multi-brand matrix by divesting from fashion sports brands and focusing on core running business, which is expected to strengthen its competitive position in the running segment [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company's revenue for FY2023 is projected at 143 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 10.3 billion RMB, reflecting a 12% increase year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.41 RMB [6][18] - For FY2024, revenue is expected to decline by 5% to 136 billion RMB, while net profit is projected to increase by 20% to 12.4 billion RMB. The EPS is anticipated to remain at 0.49 RMB [6][18] - The company forecasts a gradual increase in revenue and net profit from FY2025 to FY2027, with net profits expected to reach 16.0 billion RMB by FY2027, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 9 [6][18]

业 及 产 业 建筑装饰 2025 年 10 月 19 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 (8621)23297818× tangmeng@swsresearch.com 推进新基建打造韧性城市，强调智能化布局 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20251013-20251017） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 - ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数-1.67%，沪深 300 指 数-2.22%，相对收益为+0.55pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为装饰 幕墙（+3.44%）、钢结构（+2.32%）、设计咨询（+0.47%），对应行 业内三个公司：东易日盛（+26.23%）、精工钢构（+10 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing decline in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, with significant month-on-month increases in new home sales across major cities [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the impact of favorable policies, including low mortgage rates and city-specific initiatives aimed at urban renewal, which are expected to stimulate market activity [3][32]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the evolving market dynamics, particularly in commercial real estate and property management [3][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities reached 2.604 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 166%, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 170% increase [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in October are down 24%, with first and second-tier cities down 22% and third and fourth-tier cities down 43% [3][7][8]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities decreased by 0.2%, with a current available area of 90.1 million square meters [3][23]. 2. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China reported that the average mortgage rate for new loans was approximately 3.1% in September, down 25 basis points year-on-year [3][32]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources released 13 industry standards to guide urban renewal and the revitalization of underutilized spaces [3][32]. - Various cities have implemented tax incentives for rental housing enterprises and optimized public housing fund policies to support homebuyers [3][32]. 3. Company Performance - China Jinmao reported a 6% increase in sales volume to 3.675 million square meters and a 27.3% increase in sales revenue to 80.69 billion yuan for the first nine months [3][36]. - Other major developers like Poly Developments and China Vanke reported declines in sales volume and revenue, with Poly Developments seeing a 25.1% drop in sales volume [3][36]. - The report notes that several companies are actively engaging in financing activities, including issuing convertible bonds and providing loan guarantees [3][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping and aviation sectors, recommending specific companies such as China Shipbuilding and China Eastern Airlines, indicating a favorable investment environment [4][3]. Core Insights - The shipping sector is experiencing a historical opportunity as three negative factors (policy, exchange rates, and ship prices) are reversing to positive influences. The Clarksons second-hand ship price index is steadily rising, and the current market value of Chinese shipbuilding is at a historical low, suggesting potential for recovery [4]. - The aviation sector is poised for significant improvement due to unprecedented constraints in aircraft supply and an aging global fleet. The report anticipates a golden era for airlines as passenger demand increases and operational efficiencies improve [4]. - The oil transportation market is showing signs of recovery, with VLCC rates increasing by 10% week-on-week, driven by strong demand and supply constraints [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - The report highlights a reversal of negative influences in the shipping sector, with the Clarksons second-hand ship price index breaking through previous highs. The current market value of Chinese shipbuilding is at a historical low, with potential for recovery to historical averages [4]. - Recommended stocks include China Shipbuilding, Sumec, and China Shipbuilding Defense, with a focus on bulk oil tanker stocks such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [4]. Aviation Sector - The report notes that the aircraft manufacturing chain is facing unprecedented challenges, with supply constraints expected to persist for the next 5-10 years. Airlines are expected to benefit from increased passenger volumes and improved operational efficiencies, leading to significant profit growth [4]. - Recommended stocks in the aviation sector include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [4]. Oil Transportation - The report indicates that the oil tanker market is experiencing a resurgence, with VLCC rates increasing significantly. The demand for oil transportation is expected to strengthen, supported by seasonal demand and supply constraints [4]. - The report also notes that the market for smaller oil tankers is catching up, with rates for Suezmax and Aframax tankers rising sharply [4]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with expectations for price stabilization and profit recovery. The report outlines three potential scenarios for the industry, emphasizing the importance of monitoring quarterly performance [4]. - Recommended stocks include Shentong Express and YTO Express, with a focus on companies benefiting from e-commerce growth in Southeast Asia [4]. Rail and Road Transport - The report highlights the resilience of rail freight and highway truck traffic, with steady growth expected. The report suggests that traditional high-dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts are worth attention [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the industry, suggesting that the liquor sector is in a bottoming process while food companies should seek structural opportunities from the bottom up [6][8]. Core Views - The liquor industry is expected to experience a prolonged period of inventory digestion, with pressure on third-quarter reports anticipated to continue into the first quarter of 2026. The report emphasizes that stock price recovery may precede fundamental improvements [6][7]. - For consumer goods, the report highlights the potential for structural growth driven by new consumption trends, recommending companies with strong long-term competitive advantages [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Industry Insights - The food and beverage sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 0.86%, while the liquor segment rose by 1.78%. The sector ranked third among 31 sub-industries [5][29]. - Key stocks that performed well included Kweichow Moutai and Qingdao Beer, while stocks like Jinzi Ham faced significant declines [5]. 2. Market Performance by Sector - The report indicates that the liquor sector is facing significant adjustment pressures, with high channel inventories and weak demand expected to persist into the next year. The report anticipates that the sales performance during the 2026 Spring Festival will be under pressure due to high base effects from 2025 [7][29]. - The consumer goods sector is viewed positively, particularly in dairy and beer, with recommendations for stocks like Yili and Yanjing Beer, while also noting potential competition in the snack and beverage segments [8][29]. 3. Key Company Updates - Moutai's bottle price is reported at 1750 RMB, down 15 RMB week-on-week, while Wuliangye's price remains stable at approximately 830 RMB. The report notes that the autumn sugar and wine fair had a subdued atmosphere, reflecting ongoing market challenges [7][19]. - The report highlights significant profit growth for companies like Chenguang Biotech, with a projected net profit increase of 344.05% to 401.55% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025 [9][10]. 4. Valuation Metrics - As of October 17, 2025, the food and beverage sector's dynamic PE is reported at 19.74x, with a premium rate of 24%. The liquor sector's dynamic PE stands at 18.33x, with a premium rate of 15% [19][28]. 5. Sectoral Excess Returns - The food and beverage industry outperformed the Shenwan A index by 4.44 percentage points during the period from October 13 to October 17, 2025, with various sub-sectors showing different levels of performance [29][30].