公司报告 | 季报点评 公司自 2001 年创建以来，始终深耕锦纶产业，锦纶在强度和耐磨性、吸湿 性等方面具有突出特点，其广泛应用于服装行业中的超轻风衣、冲锋衣、 羽绒服、瑜伽服、速干衣、防寒服、休闲夹克、运动服、户外帐篷、睡袋 等，户外风潮有望带动锦纶需求。 江苏年产 10 万吨再生差别化锦纶丝项目和 6 万吨 PA66 差别化锦纶丝项目 已投产，2024 年取得了较好的效益。江苏织染项目于 2024 年 9 月开工建 设，目前项目建设正按计划有序推进，今年上半年将陆续有产能投产，项 目建成投产后将打通江苏淮安生产基地高端锦纶一体化产业链，进一步巩 固公司的行业地位。 公司实现营收 15 亿，同比+0.4%，归母净利润 1.6 亿，同比+9%，扣非归母 净利润 1.0 亿，同比-23%；非经常性损益 0.6 亿。 毛利率 22%，同比-1pct；净利率 11%，同比+1pct； 销售费率 1.16%，同比基本持平；管理费率/财务费率分别为 4.29%、2.23%， 同比均+1pct。 公司主要产品锦纶长丝销售 5.4 万吨，平均吨价 2.1 万元，同比-8.5%；原 材料己内酰胺采购吨价 0.9 万元，尼龙 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5][4] Core Views - The company benefits from the recent demand for outdoor and nylon products, with a focus on expanding production capacity in Vietnam [2][3] - The company has reported a revenue of 1.5 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 160 million yuan, up 9% year-on-year [1] - The average selling price of nylon filament decreased by 8.5% year-on-year, attributed to a decline in raw material prices [1] Financial Performance - The gross margin stands at 22%, a decrease of 1 percentage point year-on-year, while the net margin is 11%, an increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year [1] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 860 million, 1.1 billion, and 1.37 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.97, 1.24, and 1.54 yuan for the same years [4] Production Capacity and Projects - The company has launched a 100,000-ton differentiated recycled nylon filament project and a 60,000-ton PA66 differentiated nylon filament project in Jiangsu, which are expected to yield good results in 2024 [2] - A new production base is being established in Vietnam with a total investment of no more than 100 million USD, aimed at optimizing the global supply chain [3] Market Position and Product Development - The company has established raw material recycling channels to ensure the supply of recycled nylon, with ongoing improvements in product quality and customer base expansion [3] - The company’s nylon 66 products are recognized for their excellent performance in various applications, including leisure sports and outdoor clothing [3]

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 2025 年 05 月 11 日 量化择时周报：重大事件落地前维持中性仓位 重大事件落地前维持中性仓位 上周周报(20250505)认为：在风险偏好承压叠加市场格局触发下行趋势， 全 A 指数的 30 日均线构成压力位，但考虑到估值不高，建议在压力位突 破前维持中性仓位。最终 wind 全 A 周二突破 30 日均线，随后迎来上涨。 市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票的中证 2000 上涨 3.58%，中盘股中证 500 上涨 1.6%，沪深 300 上涨 2%，上证 50 上涨 1.93%;上周中信一级行业中， 表现较强行业包括国防军工、通信，国防军工上涨 6.44%，消费者服务、房 地产表现较弱，消费者服务微涨 0.3%。上周成交活跃度上，军工和通信资 金流入明显。 从择时体系来看，我们定义的用来区别市场整体环境的 wind 全 A 长期均 线（120 日）和短期均线（20 日）的距离开始收窄，最新数据显示 20 日 线收于 4946，120 日线收于 5088 点，短期均线继续位于长线均线之下， 两线差值由上周的-3.63%缩小至-2.80%，距离绝对值开 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 11.59 CNY, while the current price is 8.79 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company has significant growth potential driven by its chemical business, which serves as a stabilizing force for performance and a catalyst for stock price appreciation [1][14]. - The acquisition of Nuoao Chemical has substantially improved the company's financials, transitioning it from a pure engineering firm to a dual-driven model of "engineering + chemicals" [14]. - The company is the largest producer of n-propanol in China, with a production capacity of 100,000 tons/year, which allows it to benefit from price increases in chemical products [1][22]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry - The chemical segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with n-propanol sales projected to account for 55% of total revenue by 2024 [1][14]. - The company has a flexible production line that can switch raw materials to produce higher-margin products, mitigating the impact of price fluctuations [1][26]. Engineering Business - The company leads in sulfur recovery device contracts, with a total of 240 sets designed and constructed, amounting to a capacity of 12.83 million tons/year [2]. - Significant contracts, such as the 1.307 billion CNY order from Beifang Huajin, are expected to lead to concentrated revenue recognition in 2025 [2]. Financial Performance - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 260 million CNY for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 98.8%, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.6% [3][24]. - As of Q1 2025, the company holds 1.8 billion CNY in cash with a low debt ratio of 17.85%, indicating a strong financial safety margin [3][24]. Future Growth Potential - The company is expanding its high-end materials projects, with new capacities for isooctanoic acid and cellulose derivatives expected to contribute to revenue growth [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 3.8 billion CNY, 4.9 billion CNY, and 6.0 billion CNY respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [4].

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the coal industry from a global energy perspective, highlighting the interactions between China's coal balance and the ex-China balance, the historical linkage between oil and coal, and the impact of energy transitions in Europe and Asia [5][10][25][36] Summary by Sections Global Coal Balance and China's Interaction - The coal balances of China and ex-China have been interacting significantly post the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with ex-China balance dominating from 2021 to 2022 due to the European energy crisis and rising natural gas prices, leading to a rebound in European coal imports [10] - From 2023 to 2024, China's coal balance regained dominance, with coal imports increasing from 290 million tons in 2022 to 540 million tons in 2024, absorbing excess supply from ex-China [10] Global Energy Structure and Coal Market Overview - In 2023, coal, oil, and natural gas accounted for 26%, 32%, and 23% of global primary energy consumption, respectively, while renewable energy made up 8% [13] - The trend indicates a decarbonization process, with coal's share declining in developed regions but increasing in other countries [13] Consumer Countries - Europe - Europe's coal and natural gas shares in the power generation mix are expected to decline, with coal generation projected to drop to 260 TWh in 2024, a 2.2% decrease year-on-year [25] - The report estimates that European coal imports will continue to decrease, with a forecast of 10.774 million tons in 2024, down 3,179 million tons from the previous year [29] Consumer Countries - India - India's total electricity generation is expected to grow, with coal maintaining a dominant share of approximately 74% in the energy mix [39] - Coal production in India is projected to reach 103.904 million tons in 2024, with a growth rate of 7% [43] Consumer Countries - Southeast Asia - Southeast Asia is identified as a major driver of coal demand, with coal accounting for nearly 80% of the region's energy needs since 2010 [52] - The report anticipates a 1.7 million ton increase in coal imports in Southeast Asia by 2025, driven by recovering demand [53] Producer Countries - Indonesia - Indonesia's coal production is projected to reach 786.456 million tons in 2025, with a significant portion allocated for export [67] - The report highlights that Indonesia's domestic coal demand is primarily driven by metallurgical coal, which may impact the export of thermal coal [69] Producer Countries - Australia - Australia's coal production is expected to remain stable, with a projected output of 558.474 million tons in 2025 [80] - The report notes that Australia is a key player in global coal expansion, with 62% of new projects aimed at export [81] Producer Countries - Russia - Russia's coal exports are anticipated to decrease by approximately 12 million tons in 2025 due to sanctions and competitive disadvantages [83] - The report indicates that Russia's coal production is heavily influenced by domestic consumption and export demand dynamics [88] Producer Countries - United States - The U.S. coal production is projected to decline to 496.784 million tons in 2025, reflecting a decrease in domestic demand [104] - The report suggests that U.S. coal exports may remain stable, particularly for metallurgical coal, despite overall production declines [107]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector is expected to gradually recover due to policy support and improving fundamentals, with a focus on opportunities in the civil explosives sector [2][3] - Recent data shows a 13.95% year-on-year increase in the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market [2][15] - The cement sector has experienced a recent price correction, primarily due to underwhelming price performance in April, but there is a consensus on maintaining ecological balance, which may lead to improved supply coordination [2][17] Summary by Sections Market Review - From May 6 to May 9, the CSI 300 index rose by 2.00%, while the construction materials sector (CITIC) increased by 2.83% [12] - Notable stock performances included Jingang Photovoltaic (+31.1%) and Haomei New Materials (+19.3%) [12] Recent Tracking of Key Sub-sectors - Cement: National cement market prices fell by 1.2% week-on-week, with average shipment rates around 48% [17] - Glass: The price of photovoltaic glass remained stable, while float glass prices decreased slightly [17] - Fiberglass: Prices for non-alkali yarn remained stable, with production capacity holding steady [18] Focus on Key Recommendations - Recommended stocks include China National Materials, Gaozheng Civil Explosives, Sankeshu, Western Cement, Huaxin Cement, and China Resources Cement Technology [4][18] - The civil explosives industry is expected to benefit from policies like the Western Development and the Belt and Road Initiative, with a projected increase in demand [3][18]

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the growth potential of Longxin General's self-owned brand, VOGE, in international markets, driven by product strength, cost performance, and brand recognition [3][21] - The company has successfully developed popular models such as CU525 and DS525, with a strong presence in the European market where high displacement motorcycles are in demand [3][28] - The report emphasizes the company's robust cash flow and the complete digestion of impairment pressures, which positions it well for future growth and potential dividend increases [4][68] Company Overview - Longxin General has two main business segments: motorcycles, contributing over 70% of revenue, and general machinery, contributing around 20% [2] - The motorcycle segment includes various brands and products, with a focus on high-displacement models [2][27] Financial Performance - From 2021 to 2024, the motorcycle business's revenue contribution increased from 57.9% to 75.4%, with total revenue growing from 130.58 billion to 168.22 billion [15][20] - The net profit for 2024 is projected to be 11.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 93% [20] Market Dynamics - The European motorcycle market is characterized by a high proportion of high-displacement models, with 60.9% of motorcycle consumption in Italy being over 250cc in 2024 [28] - The trend of consumer downgrading in Europe is expected to benefit Chinese brands like VOGE, which offer higher cost performance compared to Japanese and European competitors [35][36] Strategic Developments - The integration of Longxin General and Zongshen New Manufacturing is expected to enhance collaboration in supply chain, engine technology, and market channels [5][79] - The company has established a strong marketing presence in Europe, with 1,165 overseas outlets, including 876 in Europe, enhancing brand recognition [52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 11.59 CNY, while the current price is 8.79 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company has significant growth potential driven by its chemical business, which serves as a stabilizing force for performance and a catalyst for stock price appreciation [1][14]. - The acquisition of Nuoao Chemical has substantially improved the company's financials, transitioning it from a pure engineering firm to a dual-driven model of "engineering + chemicals" [14]. - The company is the largest producer of n-propanol in China, with a production capacity of 100,000 tons/year, which allows it to benefit from price increases in chemical products [22][36]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry - The chemical segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with n-propanol sales projected to account for 55% of total revenue by 2024 [1][14]. - The company has a flexible production line that can switch raw materials to produce higher-margin products, mitigating the impact of price fluctuations [1][26]. Engineering Business - The company leads in sulfur recovery device contracts, with a total of 240 sets designed and constructed, amounting to a capacity of 12.83 million tons/year [2]. - Significant projects like the Luyou Luyuan project, with a total investment of 24.5 billion CNY, are expected to enhance revenue recognition in 2025 [2]. Financial Performance - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 260 million CNY for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 98.8%, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.6% [3][24]. - The company has a strong cash position, with total cash of 1.8 billion CNY and a low debt ratio of 17.85%, indicating a high safety margin [3][24]. Future Growth Potential - The company is expanding its production capacity with new projects in high-end materials, including 50,000 tons/year of iso-octanoic acid and 15,000 tons/year of cellulose [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 378 million CNY, 490 million CNY, and 600 million CNY respectively, indicating strong growth potential [4].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Industry Allocation Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to recommend industry sectors based on medium-term perspectives, focusing on sectors with potential for recovery or growth trends[2][3][10] **Model Construction Process**: The model identifies sectors with recovery potential ("困境反转型板块") and growth opportunities. It recommends sectors such as healthcare (恒生医疗), export-related consumer sectors (e.g., light industry and home appliances), and technology sectors (信创, communication, solid-state batteries). Additionally, it highlights sectors with ongoing upward trends, such as banking and gold[2][3][10] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides actionable insights for medium-term industry allocation, emphasizing sectors with recovery potential and growth trends[2][3][10] - **Model Name**: TWO BETA Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on identifying technology-related sectors with growth potential[2][3][10] **Model Construction Process**: The TWO BETA model recommends technology sectors, including 信创, communication, and solid-state batteries, based on their growth potential and market trends[2][3][10] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies technology sectors with strong growth potential, aligning with market trends[2][3][10] - **Model Name**: Timing System Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates market conditions by analyzing the distance between short-term and long-term moving averages to determine market trends[2][9][14] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define the short-term moving average (20-day) and long-term moving average (120-day) for the Wind All A Index 2. Calculate the difference between the two moving averages: $ \text{Difference} = \text{20-day MA} - \text{120-day MA} $ - Latest values: 20-day MA = 4946, 120-day MA = 5088 - Difference = -2.80% (previous week: -3.63%) 3. Monitor the absolute value of the difference; when it falls below 3%, the market is considered to be in a consolidation phase[2][9][14] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a clear signal for market consolidation, aiding in timing decisions[2][9][14] - **Model Name**: Position Management Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines the recommended equity allocation based on valuation levels and short-term market trends[3][10] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Assess valuation levels of the Wind All A Index: - PE ratio: 50th percentile (medium level) - PB ratio: 10th percentile (low level) 2. Combine valuation levels with short-term market trends to recommend a 60% equity allocation for absolute return products[3][10] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to position management, balancing valuation and market trends[3][10] Backtesting Results of Models - **Industry Allocation Model**: No specific numerical backtesting results provided[2][3][10] - **TWO BETA Model**: No specific numerical backtesting results provided[2][3][10] - **Timing System Model**: - Latest moving average difference: -2.80% - Previous week difference: -3.63% - Absolute difference < 3%, indicating a consolidation phase[2][9][14] - **Position Management Model**: - Recommended equity allocation: 60%[3][10]

Group 1: Market Insights on April Exports - April exports and imports exceeded expectations, with exports increasing by 8.1% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 0.2%, indicating resilience in China's export sector [10][15] - The contribution of the United States to overall export growth significantly declined, while ASEAN showed recovery, and the EU and Japan remained stable, suggesting a continuation of "export grabbing" [15] - The performance of various product categories in April was mixed, with electronic information products declining, while resource exports generally improved [16][21] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - April CPI remained negative at -0.1%, while PPI saw a wider decline of -2.7%, leading to an increased PPI-CPI gap [35][36] - The central bank's monetary policy report emphasized the need for flexible implementation of policies to support economic recovery and maintain bank health [41][42] - High-frequency indicators showed a decline in subway passenger volume in major cities, reflecting potential weaknesses in domestic consumption [47] Group 3: International Economic Developments - The May FOMC meeting maintained interest rates, with the committee noting increased risks of rising unemployment and inflation [3.2] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, could impact global economic stability [3.1][3.1.1] Group 4: Industry Allocation Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on three main areas: breakthroughs in AI technology, valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividends [4] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the AI industry's progress, as it significantly influences the performance of related sectors [4]