Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the growth potential of Longxin General's self-owned brand, VOGE, in international markets, driven by product strength, cost performance, and brand recognition [3][21] - The company has successfully developed popular models such as CU525 and DS525, with a strong presence in the European market where high displacement motorcycles are in demand [3][28] - The report emphasizes the company's robust cash flow and the complete digestion of impairment pressures, which positions it well for future growth and potential dividend increases [4][68] Company Overview - Longxin General has two main business segments: motorcycles, contributing over 70% of revenue, and general machinery, contributing around 20% [2] - The motorcycle segment includes various brands and products, with a focus on high-displacement models [2][27] Financial Performance - From 2021 to 2024, the motorcycle business's revenue contribution increased from 57.9% to 75.4%, with total revenue growing from 130.58 billion to 168.22 billion [15][20] - The net profit for 2024 is projected to be 11.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 93% [20] Market Dynamics - The European motorcycle market is characterized by a high proportion of high-displacement models, with 60.9% of motorcycle consumption in Italy being over 250cc in 2024 [28] - The trend of consumer downgrading in Europe is expected to benefit Chinese brands like VOGE, which offer higher cost performance compared to Japanese and European competitors [35][36] Strategic Developments - The integration of Longxin General and Zongshen New Manufacturing is expected to enhance collaboration in supply chain, engine technology, and market channels [5][79] - The company has established a strong marketing presence in Europe, with 1,165 overseas outlets, including 876 in Europe, enhancing brand recognition [52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 11.59 CNY, while the current price is 8.79 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company has significant growth potential driven by its chemical business, which serves as a stabilizing force for performance and a catalyst for stock price appreciation [1][14]. - The acquisition of Nuoao Chemical has substantially improved the company's financials, transitioning it from a pure engineering firm to a dual-driven model of "engineering + chemicals" [14]. - The company is the largest producer of n-propanol in China, with a production capacity of 100,000 tons/year, which allows it to benefit from price increases in chemical products [22][36]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry - The chemical segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with n-propanol sales projected to account for 55% of total revenue by 2024 [1][14]. - The company has a flexible production line that can switch raw materials to produce higher-margin products, mitigating the impact of price fluctuations [1][26]. Engineering Business - The company leads in sulfur recovery device contracts, with a total of 240 sets designed and constructed, amounting to a capacity of 12.83 million tons/year [2]. - Significant projects like the Luyou Luyuan project, with a total investment of 24.5 billion CNY, are expected to enhance revenue recognition in 2025 [2]. Financial Performance - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 260 million CNY for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 98.8%, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.6% [3][24]. - The company has a strong cash position, with total cash of 1.8 billion CNY and a low debt ratio of 17.85%, indicating a high safety margin [3][24]. Future Growth Potential - The company is expanding its production capacity with new projects in high-end materials, including 50,000 tons/year of iso-octanoic acid and 15,000 tons/year of cellulose [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 378 million CNY, 490 million CNY, and 600 million CNY respectively, indicating strong growth potential [4].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Industry Allocation Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to recommend industry sectors based on medium-term perspectives, focusing on sectors with potential for recovery or growth trends[2][3][10] **Model Construction Process**: The model identifies sectors with recovery potential ("困境反转型板块") and growth opportunities. It recommends sectors such as healthcare (恒生医疗), export-related consumer sectors (e.g., light industry and home appliances), and technology sectors (信创, communication, solid-state batteries). Additionally, it highlights sectors with ongoing upward trends, such as banking and gold[2][3][10] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides actionable insights for medium-term industry allocation, emphasizing sectors with recovery potential and growth trends[2][3][10] - **Model Name**: TWO BETA Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on identifying technology-related sectors with growth potential[2][3][10] **Model Construction Process**: The TWO BETA model recommends technology sectors, including 信创, communication, and solid-state batteries, based on their growth potential and market trends[2][3][10] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies technology sectors with strong growth potential, aligning with market trends[2][3][10] - **Model Name**: Timing System Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates market conditions by analyzing the distance between short-term and long-term moving averages to determine market trends[2][9][14] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define the short-term moving average (20-day) and long-term moving average (120-day) for the Wind All A Index 2. Calculate the difference between the two moving averages: $ \text{Difference} = \text{20-day MA} - \text{120-day MA} $ - Latest values: 20-day MA = 4946, 120-day MA = 5088 - Difference = -2.80% (previous week: -3.63%) 3. Monitor the absolute value of the difference; when it falls below 3%, the market is considered to be in a consolidation phase[2][9][14] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a clear signal for market consolidation, aiding in timing decisions[2][9][14] - **Model Name**: Position Management Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines the recommended equity allocation based on valuation levels and short-term market trends[3][10] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Assess valuation levels of the Wind All A Index: - PE ratio: 50th percentile (medium level) - PB ratio: 10th percentile (low level) 2. Combine valuation levels with short-term market trends to recommend a 60% equity allocation for absolute return products[3][10] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to position management, balancing valuation and market trends[3][10] Backtesting Results of Models - **Industry Allocation Model**: No specific numerical backtesting results provided[2][3][10] - **TWO BETA Model**: No specific numerical backtesting results provided[2][3][10] - **Timing System Model**: - Latest moving average difference: -2.80% - Previous week difference: -3.63% - Absolute difference < 3%, indicating a consolidation phase[2][9][14] - **Position Management Model**: - Recommended equity allocation: 60%[3][10]

Group 1: Market Insights on April Exports - April exports and imports exceeded expectations, with exports increasing by 8.1% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 0.2%, indicating resilience in China's export sector [10][15] - The contribution of the United States to overall export growth significantly declined, while ASEAN showed recovery, and the EU and Japan remained stable, suggesting a continuation of "export grabbing" [15] - The performance of various product categories in April was mixed, with electronic information products declining, while resource exports generally improved [16][21] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - April CPI remained negative at -0.1%, while PPI saw a wider decline of -2.7%, leading to an increased PPI-CPI gap [35][36] - The central bank's monetary policy report emphasized the need for flexible implementation of policies to support economic recovery and maintain bank health [41][42] - High-frequency indicators showed a decline in subway passenger volume in major cities, reflecting potential weaknesses in domestic consumption [47] Group 3: International Economic Developments - The May FOMC meeting maintained interest rates, with the committee noting increased risks of rising unemployment and inflation [3.2] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, could impact global economic stability [3.1][3.1.1] Group 4: Industry Allocation Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on three main areas: breakthroughs in AI technology, valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividends [4] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the AI industry's progress, as it significantly influences the performance of related sectors [4]

过去四个交易日（0506-0509 ）沪深 300 涨 2.00% ，建材（中信）涨 2.83%，其他专用材料、其他结构材料等子行业涨幅居前。个股中，金刚光 伏（+31.1% ），豪美新材（+19.3% ），北京利尔（+17.4% ），四通股份 （+16.3%），华立股份（+14.0%），涨幅居前。上周我们重点推荐组合的表 现：中材科技（+5.8%）、 三棵树(-1.5%)、西部水泥（-5.1%）、华新水泥 （+1.2%）、华润建材科技（+0.6%）、高争民爆(+2.4%)。 行业报告 | 行业研究周报 建筑材料 证券研究报告 政策协同发力，基本面有望逐步恢复，关注民爆机会 行情回顾 中材科技、高争民爆、三棵树、西部水泥、华新水泥、华润建材科技 政策协同发力，基本面有望逐步恢复，关注民爆机会 据 Wind，0503-0509 一周，30 个大中城市商品房销售面积 137.28 万平 米，同比+13.95%。上周国新办举行新闻发布会，会上一行两局宣布降准、 降息及稳楼市等措施，其中包括降准 0.5 个百分点、下调政策利率 0.1 个 百分点及降低个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25 个百分点等。此前我们在周报 中曾 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Fund Position Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to estimate the daily stock positions of public funds by simulating their complete stock holdings based on disclosed top 10 heavy holdings and other related data[8][9][10] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use quarterly fund reports to obtain the top 10 heavy holdings and combine this with the top 10 shareholders' information from listed companies[9] 2. Simulate the complete stock holdings by estimating the remaining non-heavy holdings based on the assumption that the types of stocks held in non-heavy positions remain unchanged between two periods, with only the weights adjusted proportionally[10] 3. At the end of January, April, August, and October each year, simulate the fund holdings, with August data being the actual semi-annual report holdings[12] 4. Split the fund holdings into large-cap and small-cap components and use weighted least squares to estimate the fund's allocation to large-cap and small-cap indices at each time point[12] 5. Monitor daily fund positions and analyze average style changes across dimensions such as large/small-cap allocation, market capitalization exposure, and industry allocation[12] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a detailed and dynamic monitoring of fund positions, enabling insights into style shifts and allocation trends[12] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Fund Position Estimation Model - **Stock Position Median**: - Ordinary equity funds: 88.30% - Partial equity hybrid funds: 85.28%[4][15] - **Large-Cap Allocation**: - Ordinary equity funds: 41.4% - Partial equity hybrid funds: 34.3%[14] - **Small-Cap Allocation**: - Ordinary equity funds: 46.9% - Partial equity hybrid funds: 50.9%[14] - **Weekly Changes in Large-Cap Allocation**: - Ordinary equity funds: -0.67% - Partial equity hybrid funds: -2.01%[15] - **Weekly Changes in Small-Cap Allocation**: - Ordinary equity funds: -0.48% - Partial equity hybrid funds: +0.21%[15] - **Percentile of Current Position Estimates (2016-Present)**: - Ordinary equity funds: 49.38% - Partial equity hybrid funds: 52.69%[15] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Large-Cap and Small-Cap Allocation Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: These factors aim to quantify the allocation of public funds to large-cap and small-cap stocks, reflecting their style preferences and market exposure[12] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Split the simulated fund holdings into large-cap and small-cap components[12] 2. Use the daily returns of the fund, large-cap index, and small-cap index to estimate the allocation weights through weighted least squares regression[12] 3. Calculate the allocation factors dynamically to monitor changes in fund style preferences over time[12] - **Factor Evaluation**: These factors effectively capture the dynamic allocation preferences of funds, providing valuable insights into their market positioning and style shifts[12] --- Backtesting Results of Factors 1. Large-Cap and Small-Cap Allocation Factors - **Large-Cap Allocation**: - Ordinary equity funds: 41.4% - Partial equity hybrid funds: 34.3%[14] - **Small-Cap Allocation**: - Ordinary equity funds: 46.9% - Partial equity hybrid funds: 50.9%[14] - **Weekly Changes in Large-Cap Allocation**: - Ordinary equity funds: -0.67% - Partial equity hybrid funds: -2.01%[15] - **Weekly Changes in Small-Cap Allocation**: - Ordinary equity funds: -0.48% - Partial equity hybrid funds: +0.21%[15]

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the growth potential of Longxin General's self-owned brand, VOGE, in international markets, driven by product strength, cost performance, and brand recognition [3][21] - The company has successfully developed popular models such as CU525 and DS525, with a comprehensive product range covering various motorcycle categories [3][27] - The European market presents high value, with a significant proportion of motorcycle consumption in higher displacement categories, indicating an opportunity for Chinese brands to capture market share due to their cost advantages [28][35] Company Overview - Longxin General has two main business segments: motorcycles, contributing over 70% of revenue, and general machinery, contributing around 20% [2] - The motorcycle business includes the VOGE brand, non-road sports motorcycles, and collaborations with BMW [2] Financial Performance - From 2021 to 2024, the motorcycle business's revenue contribution increased from 57.9% to 75.4%, with total revenue growing from 130.58 billion to 168.22 billion [15][20] - The company reported a significant increase in net profit, with a year-on-year growth of 93% in 2024, attributed to revenue growth and reduced impairment losses [20][27] Strategic Developments - The integration of Longxin General and Zongshen New Manufacturing is expected to enhance collaboration in supply chain, engine technology, and market channels [5][79] - The company has a strong cash position, with 77 billion in cash as of Q1 2025, providing a solid foundation for future growth and potential dividend increases [4][68] Market Dynamics - The report notes a trend of consumption downgrade in Europe, where consumers are increasingly opting for lower-priced brands, benefiting Longxin General's competitive pricing strategy [35][36] - The company's marketing efforts and extensive distribution network in Europe have led to increased brand recognition, particularly in Italy and Spain [52][53]

行业报告 | 行业专题研究 2025 年 05 月 10 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市(维持评级) | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 作者 缪欣君 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110517080003 miaoxinjun@tfzq.com 刘鉴 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525040001 liujianb@tfzq.com 行业走势图 -21% -10% 1% 12% 23% 34% 45% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 计算机 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据 相关报告 1 《计算机-行业专题研究:自主芯片+ 底层模型+TO B 生态共筑阿里 AI 云生 态领军地位》 2025-04-08 2 《计算机-行业深度研究:AI+医疗投资 框架》 2025-03-05 3 《计算机-行业点评:AI 证券，计算机 AI 应用优质落地场景》 2025-02-25 计算机 证券研究报告 计算机一季报分析：算力和信创景气度有望再上一个 台阶，关注 SaaS 类公司 Agent 放量进度 信创：龙芯中科、中国软件、中国长城、诚迈科 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.28 billion, an increase of 18% year-on-year [1]. - The company is actively implementing the "236 Project" development strategy, which focuses on two major projects, three clusters, and six high-quality initiatives to enhance its position as a world-class business education platform [4]. - The company has begun to deepen its AI applications, launching the "AI Sales Master" product, which aims to enhance talent training through AI-driven assessments and insights [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 74%, up by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 22%, up by 4 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was -0.5 billion, a significant decline of 496% year-on-year, primarily due to lower sales collections and increased employee compensation payments [1]. - The company expects net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 to be 3.0 billion, 3.4 billion, and 3.8 billion respectively, with EPS projected at 2.54, 2.84, and 3.22 yuan [5][10]. Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 4.42 billion, with a current price of 37.08 yuan per share [6]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 2,096.48 million in 2023 to 3,002.20 million by 2027 [11][12].

Group 1 - The report highlights that in April, the newly established equity public funds reached 57.048 billion units, an increase of 6.959 billion units compared to the previous month, marking a 94.59% percentile over the past three years [8][9][11] - The report indicates that the issuance of passive equity funds has significantly contributed to the market, with a new issuance of 45.095 billion units in April, up 7.390 billion units from the previous month [11][12] - The report notes that the net subscription of stock ETFs in April was 197.302 billion yuan, a substantial increase from the previous month, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards equity markets [16][20] Group 2 - The report states that the average position of private equity funds fell to 56.56% in March, down 1.75 percentage points from February, reflecting a cautious sentiment among investors [30] - The report mentions that the monthly average trading volume of northbound funds decreased to 152.208 billion yuan in April, a decline of 18.98% from the previous month, indicating a cautious approach from foreign investors [32][37] - The report highlights that the total margin trading balance decreased by 6.89% in April, with a net outflow of 131.535 billion yuan, suggesting reduced trading activity and a shift towards risk aversion [34][36] Group 3 - The report indicates that insurance funds have reduced their equity investment risk factor by 10%, aiming to increase their investment in A-shares to 30% of new premiums starting in 2025 [44][48] - The report notes that the issuance of wealth management products in April was 5,993, with an increase of 22.06% in the number of products reaching maturity, reflecting a positive trend in the market [49][51] - The report states that the net reduction in industrial capital in April was significantly narrowed to 370 million yuan, indicating a potential stabilization in corporate investment behavior [34][38]