证券研究报告 2025年05月07日 海外行业报告：行业动态研究 全球AI周报 从海外科技大厂财报看全球AI投资机会 作者： 分析师 孔蓉 SAC执业证书编号：S1110521020002 分析师 李泽宇 SAC执业证书编号：S1110520110002 分析师 樊程安吉 SAC执业证书编号：S1110524080001 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 摘要 ◼ 海外科技公司财报AI进展 ◼ 全球AI动态： ◼ 投资建议： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 2 ➢ 微软：收入利润均超预期，AI收入加速。FY25Q3营收达 701 亿美元，同比增长 13%，超越彭博一致预期（685亿美元）；每股收益为 3.46 美元，同比增长 18%，超越彭博一致预期（3.21美元）。Azure收入同比增长33%，AI拉动Azure增 长比例为16%。公司预计下季度Azure 收入增长34%~35%，有望持续加速。处理Token数量超100万亿(4月50万亿)，同比增长5倍，推理需求正加速放量。 ➢ META：AI持续赋能，上调全年资本支出指引。收入达423亿美元，同比增长16%，超彭博一致预期（414亿美元 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" with a downgrade in rating [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.35 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-over-year decrease of 4.7%, and a net profit of 150 million yuan, down 43.6% year-over-year, primarily due to tax policy adjustments and price changes [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 5.481 billion yuan in 2024, a year-over-year increase of 2.95%, and a net profit of 750 million yuan, up 3.26%, indicating that the operational goals for 2024 were largely met [2]. - The company is focusing on collaborative development in military, civilian, and fuel sectors, with a positive outlook on the long-term development of large aircraft business [3]. - The company is positioned as a major supplier of aviation engine and gas turbine control systems in China, benefiting from the growth in demand for aviation equipment, large aircraft, general aviation, and drones [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 25.1%, a decrease of 7.80 percentage points year-over-year, and the net profit margin was 11.0%, down 7.49 percentage points year-over-year [1]. - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to be 5.316 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline from 2024, with net profit expected to be 725 million yuan [5]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from aviation engines and gas turbine control systems was 4.88 billion yuan, accounting for 89.1% of total revenue, with a gross margin increase of 1.55 percentage points to 29.2% [2]. - Domestic revenue was 5.11 billion yuan, a 2.8% increase year-over-year, while international revenue was 370 million yuan, a 5.5% increase [2]. Future Outlook - The company aims for a revenue target of 5.3 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a transition period between old and new products [2]. - The company is advancing the development of commercial engines and exploring maintenance services for domestic aircraft like the C919, which is expected to positively impact performance in the mid to late "14th Five-Year Plan" period [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price yet to be specified [5]. Core Views - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, with revenue at 330 million, down 6% year-on-year, and net profit at 30 million, down 3% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on upgrading its "Cold Mountain" product line, aiming to cover a full range of high-performance outdoor products from camping to hiking [4]. - The OEM/ODM business showed resilience with a revenue increase of 2.46% year-on-year, while the self-owned brand business saw a decline of 19.42% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025: Revenue of 330 million, net profit of 30 million, and a non-recurring net profit of 30 million, reflecting declines of 6%, 3%, and 14% respectively year-on-year [1]. - Q4 2024: Revenue of 220 million, net profit of -8.66 million, and a non-recurring net profit of -11.10 million, showing declines of 26%, 169%, and 220% year-on-year [1]. - For the full year 2024, revenue was 1.3 billion, down 10%, with a net profit of 84 million, down 22%, and a non-recurring net profit of 60 million, down 43% [1]. Business Segment Performance - In Q1 2025, the OEM/ODM segment generated revenue of 220.3 million, up 2.46% year-on-year, while the self-owned brand segment generated 113.5 million, down 19.42% [2]. - The online revenue for the "Big Shepherd" brand was 44.48 million, up 2% year-on-year, while offline revenue was 50.83 million, down 35% [2]. - The "Little Shepherd" direct store revenue was 2.34 million, down 45%, while franchise store revenue was 15 million, up 1% [2]. Cost and Expense Analysis - Sales expenses were 120 million, down 4% year-on-year, attributed to reduced costs from targeted electronic platform advertising [3]. - Management expenses were 120 million, up 24% year-on-year, primarily due to increased labor costs and depreciation from investments in smart warehousing and SAP systems [3]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 96 million, 115 million, and 143 million respectively, and EPS of 1.03, 1.23, and 1.53 [9].

行业报告 | 行业专题研究 建筑装饰 证券研究报告 24 年业绩承压下滑，25 年板块基本面有望迎来修复 24 年营收、利润承压下滑，净利率及周转率拖累 ROE 提升 24 年 CS 建筑板块实现营收 86997 亿元，同比-4.1%，实现归母净利润 1689 亿元，同比-14.4%，营收增速同比下降 11.8pct，业绩增速同比下降 21.4pct。 利润增速慢于营收增速主要系费用率上升、减值损失增加、周转率均小幅下 滑。24 年 ROE（摊薄）6.5%，同比下降 1.49pct。25Q1 建筑板块营收/归母 同比-6%/-8.4%。25Q1 建筑板块或受一季度开复工慢于去年农历同期，项目 落地进度放缓影响，展望 Q2 以及下半年，新增专项债发行提速、资金到位 加快，考虑到关税态势下外需面临的较大压力，内需刺激政策有望进一步发 力，加速推动实物工作量落地，建筑公司基本面或将迎来修复。 毛利率小幅改善，费用率&减值损失同比增长，全年 CFO 净流入大幅减少 24 年 CS 建筑板块整体毛利率 10.96%，同比改善 0.05pct，净利率 2.44%，同 比下降 0.29pct，一方面反映出建筑行业整体提质增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][18]. Core Views - The company has seen a significant increase in overseas orders, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, contributing to a 29.25% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 [1]. - The company is investing in perovskite solar cells to explore new growth avenues, aiming to expand its market presence in emerging markets like the Philippines and Kenya [4]. - Despite a decline in domestic business margins, the company has achieved a 93% year-on-year increase in new contracts signed in 2024 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenues of 372 million, a 29.25% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 36 million, up 18.59% [1]. - For the full year 2024, the company expects revenues of 1.297 billion, a slight increase of 1.51%, but a significant drop in net profit by 46.86% to 93 million due to declining gross margins and increased costs [1][5]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 29.59%, down 4.67 percentage points year-on-year, with a notable decline in Q4 2024 [2][3]. Order and Revenue Trends - The company signed new contracts worth 2.053 billion in 2024, reflecting a 93% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - Revenue from the foundation treatment and pile foundation engineering segments for 2024 is expected to be 824 million and 430 million, respectively, with the latter showing a 55.10% increase [2]. Cash Flow and Expenses - The company experienced a cash flow from operations (CFO) of -83 million in 2024, a decrease of 217 million year-on-year, but a positive CFO of 45 million in Q1 2025 [3]. - The operating expense ratio for 2024 is projected to be 17.36%, an increase of 1.62 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising management costs from overseas business growth [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][18]. Core Views - The company has seen a significant increase in overseas orders, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, contributing to a 29.25% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 [1]. - The company is investing in perovskite solar cells to explore new growth avenues, aiming to expand its market presence in emerging markets like the Philippines and Kenya [4]. - Despite a decline in domestic business margins, the company has achieved a 93% year-on-year increase in new contracts signed in 2024 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenues of 372 million, a 29.25% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 36 million, up 18.59% [1]. - For the full year 2024, the company expects revenues of 1.297 billion, a slight increase of 1.51%, but a significant drop in net profit by 46.86% to 93 million due to declining gross margins and increased costs [1][5]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 29.59%, down 4.67 percentage points year-on-year, with a further decline to 16.46% in Q4 2024 [2][3]. Order and Contract Growth - The company signed new contracts worth 2.053 billion in 2024, reflecting a 93% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - The breakdown of revenue by business segment shows a decline in the ground treatment business by 16.94% to 824 million, while the pile foundation engineering business grew by 55.10% to 430 million [2]. Cash Flow and Expenses - The company experienced a cash flow from operations (CFO) of -83 million in 2024, a decrease of 217 million year-on-year, but improved to 45 million in Q1 2025 [3]. - The operating expense ratio increased to 17.36% in 2024, primarily due to rising management costs associated with overseas business growth and increased R&D expenses in the new energy sector [3]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 250 million, 320 million, and 396 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 19.8, 15.6, and 12.6 [4][5].

Group 1: Banking and Financial Sector - The report emphasizes that bills have dual attributes of funding and credit, with both funding conditions and credit issuance affecting bill rates. The tightness of the funding environment determines the central level of bill rates, but at certain critical times, credit attributes may override funding attributes in determining bill rates [1] - It highlights that real transaction relationships and shorter bill durations can help limit arbitrage behavior, as the discount financing cost of bills is lower than that of bank loans, leading to potential fictitious trade activities among related enterprises to obtain bank discount funds [1] - The new regulations on bank acceptance bills will impose limits on the proportion of bank acceptance bill balances to total bank assets and the proportion of guarantee deposits to total deposits, but the actual impact is expected to be limited [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector outperformed major indices in Q1 2025, with a total revenue of 128.1 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.2%, and a net profit of 7.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.1% [2] - The report notes a positive outlook for storage prices and supply-demand structure since the end of March 2025, with major companies like SanDisk and Micron joining the price increase trend, driven by continuous investment from cloud service providers in AI hardware [2] - The domestic substitution process has entered a transformative stage, with expectations for overall industry profit margins to enter an upward channel as the price-cutting cycle led by Texas Instruments is likely to end [2] Group 3: Construction and Building Materials - The construction sector is projected to face revenue decline in 2024, with total revenue of 86,997 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 168.9 billion yuan, down 14.4% year-on-year [3] - The international engineering segment performed well, with companies like China Aluminum International and Northern International showing year-on-year growth of 14.3% and 9.7%, respectively [3] - New signed orders in the traditional infrastructure sector showed signs of recovery in Q1, with significant year-on-year growth in new signed orders for major state-owned enterprises [3] Group 4: Electric Power and Utilities - The report indicates that the company achieved a revenue of 17.015 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, and a net profit of 5.181 billion yuan, up 30.56% year-on-year [16] - Financial expenses were significantly reduced, with a year-on-year decrease of 13% in Q1 2025, contributing to improved profitability [16] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 34.33 billion yuan, 36.18 billion yuan, and 37.68 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [16] Group 5: Consumer Goods and Retail - The report highlights that the company experienced a revenue decline of 0.30% in Q1 2025, with a net profit decrease of 10.90% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the retail sector [23] - The company is undergoing internal transformation to address governance and operational management issues, with a focus on improving efficiency and channel structure [23] - The overseas business showed strong performance, with a revenue increase of 37.25% in 2024, indicating successful market penetration in international markets [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company is undergoing significant internal transformation due to pressures from the real estate adjustment cycle and differentiated consumer demand, with a focus on governance, management, and organizational improvements [1] - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue decline has narrowed, indicating a trend of marginal improvement [1] - The company has initiated a "reverse battle" action starting May 2024 to address internal shortcomings [1] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 818 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.30%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 42 million yuan, down 10.90% [1] - In 2024, the company’s total revenue was 5.258 billion yuan, a decline of 14.04%, with a net profit of 385 million yuan, down 35.23% [1] - The gross margin for 2024 was 36.27%, a decrease of 0.80 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 7.33%, down 2.40 percentage points [1] Product Segment Summary - In 2024, the overall cabinet revenue was 2.394 billion yuan, down 15.62%, with a gross margin of 40.24% [2] - The custom wardrobe segment saw revenue of 2.121 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 15.35%, but in Q1 2025, revenue increased by 9.72% to 421 million yuan [2] - The door segment experienced a revenue increase of 42.34% in Q1 2025, reaching 64 million yuan [2] Channel Performance Summary - Direct store revenue in 2024 was 466 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.80%, but saw a significant increase of 205.81% in Q1 2025 [3] - The company is actively optimizing its channel structure, with a focus on expanding its new retail model [3] - The overseas business reported a revenue increase of 37.25% in 2024, reaching 205 million yuan, and continued to grow in Q1 2025 [4] Adjusted Profit Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 410 million yuan, 450 million yuan, and 500 million yuan respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous estimates [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [4]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a steady recovery with improved sales performance, particularly in e-commerce, and is gradually emerging from a low operational period [3]. - The company focuses on enhancing operational efficiency by closing underperforming stores, resulting in a net decrease of 29 sales points in China [1]. - The company is pursuing a strategy of deepening core categories while expanding into new categories, with significant growth in running, basketball, and training segments [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 29.5 billion RMB, 31.7 billion RMB, and 34.0 billion RMB respectively [3]. - Net profit estimates for the same period are 2.8 billion RMB, 3.0 billion RMB, and 3.2 billion RMB respectively [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.09 RMB, 1.16 RMB, and 1.23 RMB for 2025-2027 [3]. Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 39.29 billion HKD and a total share capital of 2,584.80 million shares [4]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at 26.90%, indicating a relatively low level of debt [4]. Sales Performance - The company reported a low single-digit growth in overall retail sales, with a 10%-20% increase in e-commerce sales [1]. - The running category saw a retail sales increase of 25% in 2024, leading the growth among core categories [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][18]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a 13.5% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025, achieving revenue of 2.07 billion [1]. - The non-net profit increased by 27.13% year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in expense ratios, while the net profit was affected by a reduction in impairment reversals [1]. - The company has a strong order backlog, with approximately 49.9 billion in hand orders, and aims to secure 22 billion in new orders for 2025, particularly in the coal chemical sector [2]. - The company has a competitive edge in coal chemical engineering, especially in wastewater treatment, and is expected to benefit from the rising demand in Xinjiang's coal chemical industry [4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a comprehensive gross margin of 8.74%, with a period expense ratio of 2.17%, reflecting effective cost control [3]. - The company’s projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 10.36 billion, 11.89 billion, and 13.45 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 480.34 million, 560.33 million, and 640.50 million [5][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to grow from 0.68 in 2025 to 0.90 in 2027, indicating a positive growth trajectory [5][12]. Market Position - The company has secured significant projects, including the design and construction of coal-to-gas and coal-to-olefins facilities, which enhances its market position in the coal chemical sector [4]. - The company’s financial metrics indicate a healthy valuation, with a projected P/E ratio decreasing from 20.09 in 2023 to 10.79 in 2027, suggesting potential for price appreciation [5][12].