Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, on global asset pricing and market stability, indicating a historical reduction in volatility compared to past conflicts [4][18][21] - The construction industry is facing a downturn due to limited funding sources and policy constraints, with a projected slowdown in infrastructure investment growth for 2024, although a slight recovery is expected in 2025 [29][30] - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical sector is gaining momentum, with significant advancements in drug development and increasing market share in global drug sales [9][10] Group 1: Market Overview - The report notes a slight decline in A-share indices, with the CSI 500 and ChiNext Index dropping by 1.76% and 1.66% respectively, amid ongoing negotiations between China and the US [3][26] - The fixed income market is experiencing a loosening of liquidity, with the central bank's net withdrawal of funds amounting to 79.9 billion yuan, leading to a drop in the DR007 rate below 1.5% [3][26] - Commodity markets are showing mixed signals, with fluctuations in prices for various metals and agricultural products, while pork prices remain below warning levels [3][27] Group 2: Construction Industry Analysis - The construction sector is experiencing a decline in demand, with new construction starts, construction, and completion areas showing negative year-on-year growth due to reduced infrastructure investment [29][30] - The report suggests a three-dimensional strategy for investing in construction bonds, focusing on mother-son spreads, variety spreads, and guarantee arbitrage to optimize returns [32] - The construction industry has a significant amount of outstanding bonds, with state-owned enterprises dominating the market, indicating a generally high credit quality among issuers [31] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Sector Insights - The report emphasizes the robust growth of China's innovative drug market, with key products like Keytruda and semaglutide leading global sales, reflecting a narrowing gap with international counterparts [9][10] - Chinese innovative drugs are increasingly capturing market share, with over 30% of global clinical trials and a significant presence in high-value licensing deals [9][10] - The report anticipates continued growth in the domestic market for innovative drugs, driven by supportive policies and improved product capabilities [9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The company is focusing on a new strategic framework called "Super Entertainment Space," which includes five business segments: cinema, film and television series, strategic investments, trendy toys, and gaming [1]. - The cinema business aims to enhance the viewing experience by upgrading projection equipment and introducing diverse content, including sports events and concerts, to attract younger audiences [1]. - The trendy toy business has established partnerships with top global IP licensors and aims to leverage technology to enhance customer experience, with plans to expand its retail presence significantly [2]. - Revenue and profit growth are expected from the company's strategic initiatives and market recovery, with projected revenues of 15.08 billion, 16.29 billion, and 17.10 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 22%, 8%, and 5% [3]. Summary by Sections Cinema Business - The cinema segment will focus on creating a "Super Entertainment Space" by upgrading to all-laser projection systems by the end of 2026 and diversifying content offerings [1]. - The company has seen significant success with non-ticket revenue initiatives, such as a collaboration with the game "Genshin Impact," generating over 64 million yuan in GMV [1]. Trendy Toy Business - The trendy toy segment has sold nearly 200 million items since its inception in 2015 and has formed deep strategic partnerships with major global IP holders [2]. - The company is set to launch a digital rights platform to enhance customer engagement and has plans to open 130 stores globally by the end of the year [2]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 15.08 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 1.12 billion yuan, and expects to maintain a PE ratio of 21 times [3][4]. - The financial outlook includes a significant recovery in 2025, with a projected EBITDA of 2.59 billion yuan [4].

Group 1 - The construction industry is experiencing a downturn due to declining demand, with infrastructure investment growth slowing down to 5.8% in April 2024, which is still at a low level [1][10][19] - The construction sector is primarily driven by infrastructure investment and real estate development investment, leading to negative year-on-year changes in new starts, construction, and completion areas [1][10][19] - The total output value of the construction industry is expected to decrease, with a 1.65% decline in completed output value in 2024, marking the second negative growth in a decade [13][19] Group 2 - The construction industry has a low entry barrier, resulting in a large number of companies, but only a few are involved in bond issuance, primarily focusing on state-owned enterprises [2][22] - The credit quality of construction companies can be analyzed through six dimensions: external support, operational performance, asset scale and quality, capital structure and debt repayment ability, profitability, and cash flow [2][22][23] - The majority of bond issuers in the construction sector are state-owned enterprises, with 57 central state-owned enterprises and 51 local state-owned enterprises identified [9][22][32] Group 3 - As of June 18, 2025, the total bond scale in the construction industry is 1,032.6 billion, with infrastructure being the largest sub-sector, accounting for 71% of the total [3][22] - The majority of bond issuers are state-owned enterprises, with 98% of the issuers being central state-owned enterprises and 84% rated AAA [3][22] - The bond maturity pressure is relatively high in the next two years, especially in 2025, indicating a need for careful management of debt repayment [3][22] Group 4 - Investment strategies for construction bonds can be considered from three dimensions: parent-subsidiary yield spread, variety yield spread, and guarantee arbitrage [4][22] - The parent-subsidiary yield spread strategy suggests investing in bonds of subsidiaries with relatively stable credit quality but higher yields compared to their parent companies [4][22] - The variety yield spread strategy recommends selecting perpetual bonds from higher-rated issuers, which generally offer higher yields than non-perpetual bonds [4][22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [3][82]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the significant progress of Chinese innovative drugs, highlighting their emergence as a global force in the pharmaceutical industry, supported by a solid industrial foundation, policy backing, and capital support [4][5]. - The gap between Chinese and global innovative drugs has narrowed significantly, with the time to market for first-in-class drugs reduced from over 10 years to within 1-5 years [4]. - The report indicates that Chinese companies now account for over 30% of global clinical trials, with more than 60% of popular targets being pursued by Chinese firms [35][38]. Summary by Sections Breakthrough Therapies - The development of innovative drugs in China is underpinned by a robust industrial base, supportive policies, and substantial capital investment, leading to rapid growth in the ADC market and next-generation therapies [4][12]. - Key drugs such as Keytruda and Semaglutide are projected to generate sales of $29.482 billion and $29.296 billion respectively in 2024, showcasing the potential of innovative therapies [4][12]. Achievements - Chinese innovative drugs have made significant strides, with the clinical trial participation rate increasing from 9.7% in 2016 to 28.2% in 2023 [35]. - The report notes that the number of Chinese companies involved in clinical trials for oncology drugs has risen from 15% in 2016 to 35.5% in 2023, indicating a strong focus on cancer therapies [35]. Leading Trends - The rapid growth of License Out transactions has provided substantial cash flow for innovative drug companies, facilitating their expansion into international markets [5][66]. - The report highlights that the Chinese market is still dominated by foreign patented drugs, but there is significant potential for domestic innovative drugs to capture market share, especially as many foreign drugs face expiration of patents [70][72].

策略报告 | 投资策略 海外与大类周报 证券研究报告 中东地缘冲突如何定价？ 伊以冲突触发中东权力格局重构，全球资产反应呈现历史性钝化 以色列 2025 年 6 月 13 日对伊朗核设施实施"斩首式打击"，引发伊朗直接军 事报复。尽管事件导致原油日内涨幅 7.02%（布伦特收盘 74.23 美元/桶）、黄 金冲高 3%（6 月 13 日 COMEX 黄金 3431.2 美元/盎司），但全球权益市场波 动率及美元指数（单日仅涨 0.27%）均未有大幅波动。相较于 1990 年海湾战 争期间原油波动极差 61.5%、标普 500 回撤 20%，本次资产波动强度显著减弱， 反映金融体系对区域性冲突的适应性进化——定价锚点转向供需基本面（原 油）与实际利率（黄金），边际影响系统性衰减。 原油：地缘溢价衰减与供需新平衡 地缘冲击对油价的边际驱动持续弱化，供给侧调控与季节性需求的博弈成为 新主导。尽管霍尔木兹海峡中断风险推升布伦特原油盘中涨幅超 10%，但价 格较俄乌冲突峰值（127.98 美元/桶）低 42%，印证地缘溢价衰减。历史趋势 明确：1990 年海湾战争波动极差 61.5 个百分点，2023 年巴以冲突收窄至 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [6] Core Viewpoints - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its optimistic growth trajectory, driven by AI and domestic substitution efforts [4][15] - The storage sector is highlighted as a key area of focus, with expectations of price increases for DDR4 contracts by 30-40% in Q3 [3][16] - The demand for storage capacity is rapidly increasing due to AI servers, PCs, and mobile devices, leading to a rise in high-value product penetration [3][14] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - In May, global chip delivery times remained stable, with a slight increase in spot market delivery times and rising storage prices [2][13] - Major chip suppliers showed stable delivery times, with some experiencing slight increases in both delivery times and prices [2][13] 2. Storage Sector - The storage sector is expected to see continued price increases, with significant demand for DDR4 and DDR5, leading to a saturated production capacity [3][18] - The anticipated price increases for DRAM and NAND Flash in Q3 and Q4 are driven by supply-side reforms and strong demand from AI applications [3][14][17] 3. Industry Growth Projections - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow, with a forecasted sales figure of approximately $626.87 billion in 2024, reflecting a 19% year-on-year increase [30][31] - The Chinese semiconductor market is expected to exceed $170 billion in sales in 2024, with a significant contribution from the Yangtze River Delta region [30][31] 4. Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies in the semiconductor storage sector include Jiangbolong, Shannon Semiconductor, and Zhaoyi Innovation, among others [5] - In the IDM foundry and packaging sector, companies like Huahong Semiconductor and SMIC are highlighted for their growth potential [5] 5. Equipment and Materials - The equipment and materials sector is seeing stable growth, with leading manufacturers showing strong performance in Q1 2025 [4][15] - The ongoing domestic substitution efforts are reshaping the supply chain landscape, enhancing the competitiveness of local firms [4][15]

行业报告 | 行业专题研究 石油石化 证券研究报告 伊以冲突，对能源化工品影响几何？ 伊朗石油&炼厂 我们估算 360 万桶产量=150 万桶原油出口（主要到中国）+80 万桶成品油 出口+130 本土消费。炼厂加工量约 210 万桶/天，新闻中起火的有油库和炼 厂，其中德黑兰炼厂能力 22.5 万桶/天。 首先，针对油田目标袭击，不如针对油库炼厂来的方便，类似俄乌也是对成 品油出口影响大于原油。其次，如果伊朗原油出口受影响，中国地炼油源或 将受损失。 天然气、LPG 和化工品 2022 年伊朗发电 85%靠天然气，天然气主要是南帕斯生产。伊朗的 LPG 基 本来自南帕斯，且 LPG 出口主要到中国，中国进口 LPG 有 27%来自伊朗。 中国进口伊朗甲醇、乙二醇分别占总进口量的 59%和 4%。 对以色列来说，袭击南帕斯气田效率非常高，对伊朗电力系统和民众的影响 力大。那么首先 LPG 潜在影响最大；其次气头的甲醇和乙二醇也有一定潜 在影响；第三对伊拉克电力系统也有潜在影响。 霍尔木兹海峡 2023 年霍尔木兹海峡的石油通过量 2090 万桶/天，占全球石油液体消费量 20%左右。沙特和阿联酋拥有少量绕过霍 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.303 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 556.73 million yuan, down 20.9% year-on-year. However, the first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue increase of 7.2% year-on-year to 1.301 billion yuan and a significant net profit increase of 87.3% year-on-year to 242 million yuan [1][4] - The average prices of key products such as Acesulfame, Sucralose, Methyl Maltose, and Ethyl Maltose in 2024 were 38,500 yuan/ton, 154,200 yuan/ton, 88,900 yuan/ton, and 72,500 yuan/ton respectively, reflecting a decline compared to 2023. The price of Sucralose saw a significant rebound, increasing over 100% from its low point [2][3] - The company’s export volume of Sucralose in 2024 reached 18,700 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, indicating strong demand in the sugar substitute market [3] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly in the coming years, with estimates of 6.631 billion yuan in 2025, 8.074 billion yuan in 2026, and 8.349 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 25.03%, 21.76%, and 3.41% respectively [5][10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rebound to 1.171 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 110.40%, and further increase to 2.118 billion yuan in 2026 and 2.365 billion yuan in 2027 [5][10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.98 yuan in 2024 to 2.06 yuan in 2025, and further to 3.73 yuan in 2026 [5][10] Project Developments - The company completed the production of its second phase project in Dingyuan in 2024 and successfully built an 80,000-ton electronic-grade hydrogen peroxide project. Additionally, it is expanding into sodium hydroxide and potassium hydroxide products [4] - A new project for producing 10,000 tons of next-generation lithium battery electrolyte precursors has received all necessary approvals, indicating a strategic move towards high-end chemical materials [4]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (initial rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The extension of the cobalt export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) for an additional three months exceeds market expectations, which anticipated a two-month extension [2][3] - The DRC dominates global cobalt supply, with an estimated production of 200,000 tons in 2024, accounting for 76% of the total supply [3] - The current cobalt price is expected to enter a new upward cycle, potentially reaching levels between 280,000 to 300,000 yuan per ton due to inventory depletion and stricter regulatory measures in the DRC [3] Summary by Sections - **Cobalt Export Ban**: The DRC's cobalt export ban has been extended for three months due to sufficient market inventory, with the new expiration date set for September 22, 2025 [1] - **Market Expectations**: The market had anticipated a two-month extension based on the lack of clear guidance from the DRC government and the challenges in implementing a new export quota system [2] - **Future Inventory and Pricing**: The extension of the ban will test inventory levels, with major cobalt smelters likely facing production cuts in July and August, leading to a potential tightening of inventory and an increase in cobalt prices [3] - **Investment Recommendations**: Short-term focus on resource companies unaffected by the DRC export ban, such as Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources; long-term focus on companies with significant resource reserves and production capacity, like Luoyang Molybdenum and flexible companies such as Tengyuan Cobalt and Hanrui Cobalt [4]

Domestic Policy News - The second China-Central Asia Summit was held, emphasizing the "China-Central Asia spirit" and the construction of a community with a shared future [10][11] - Premier Li Qiang highlighted the importance of innovation-driven development during his visit to Jiangsu, aiming to expand effective demand and stimulate high-quality economic growth [12][13] Overseas Policy News - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change, reflecting a cautious approach to economic uncertainties [14][20] - The Fed's semiannual monetary policy report indicated a stable economic expansion but acknowledged persistent inflation risks, particularly from tariffs and geopolitical tensions [16][20] Equity Market Analysis - A-shares experienced a slight decline, with the CSI 500 and ChiNext indices falling by 1.76% and 1.66% respectively, amid ongoing uncertainties in US-China negotiations [22][23] - The central bank announced eight significant financial opening measures during the Lujiazui Forum, aimed at enhancing financial cooperation and high-quality development [23][24] Fixed Income Market Analysis - The central bank's actions led to a loosening of the funding environment, with the DR007 rate dropping below 1.5% [3][22] Commodity Market Analysis - The commodity market saw fluctuations, with non-ferrous metals rebounding and oil prices experiencing slight volatility [3][4] Forex Market Analysis - The US dollar index rebounded slightly, closing at 98.76, influenced by the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates [4][20] Major Asset Rotation Outlook - The report suggests a defensive approach in equity markets, emphasizing the importance of gold and convertible bonds as potential investment opportunities [4][20]