作者 谭逸鸣 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525050005 tanyiming@tfzq.com 唐海清 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110517030002 tanghaiqing@tfzq.com 唐梦涵 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525060002 tangmenghan@tfzq.com 近期报告 1 《固定收益：信用主体骑乘库一览- 信用策略系列》 2025-06-26 固定收益 | 固定收益专题 2025 年 06 月 27 日 2 《固定收益：固定收益专题-建筑行 业系列一》 2025-06-24 3 《固定收益：可转债周报 20250622- 近期评级调整怎么看？》 2025-06-22 可转债 2025 年中期策略 证券研究报告 顺势布局，掘金赛道 25H1，权益与转债市场行情复盘 小盘风格占优，医药与金融地产股领涨，转债资产表现优异。年初以来， 小微盘风格占优，中证 2000、可转债对应正股指数分别涨 7.53%、9.64%， 领跑市场，沪深 300、科创 50 则分别录得 2.24%、3.14%跌幅；产业链 来看，医药板块、金融地产板块分别上涨 4.60 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates a recovery in the issuance of equity public funds, with a new issuance of 269.56 million shares, an increase of 17.32% compared to the previous period [2][10][11] - Southbound capital continues to show net inflows, with a total of 290.55 billion yuan, although this is a decrease of 26.37% from the previous period [5][39] - The overall funding supply for the period was 292 billion yuan, while the funding demand reached 4,513 billion yuan, resulting in a net outflow of 4,221 billion yuan [2][9] Group 2 - The equity financing scale significantly increased to 4,307.79 billion yuan, primarily due to large-scale issuances by major banks such as Bank of China, Bank of Communications, and Postal Savings Bank, which raised 1,650 billion, 1,200 billion, and 1,300 billion yuan respectively [3][30] - The net reduction in industrial capital was 85.75 billion yuan, indicating continued selling pressure from major shareholders [3][32] - The lock-up release value for this period was 1,078.21 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 162.85% compared to the previous period, with expectations of 1,335.32 billion yuan in the next two weeks [4][35]

Group 1 - The report highlights the current trading dynamics in the financial sector, comparing the recent financial market trends with those of November 2014, emphasizing the need to assess whether the current financial narrative can support the high valuations seen in the financial sector [3][19] - It notes that the military industry has shown a good rebound rate in similar historical contexts, suggesting potential investment opportunities in this sector [3][19] - The report discusses the importance of trading volume in determining the pricing factors for brokerage firms, indicating that maintaining high trading volumes is crucial for price appreciation [3][20] Group 2 - The report outlines the recent developments from the Lujiazui Forum, focusing on financial policies aimed at enhancing cooperation and high-quality development in the context of global economic changes [4][22] - It mentions significant trends in various industries, including advancements in artificial intelligence and high-end manufacturing, which are expected to drive future growth [4][24] - The report highlights the performance of battery and stablecoin concepts, indicating strong market interest and potential investment opportunities in these areas [4][21] Group 3 - The report on the credit strategy emphasizes the potential for "riding" strategies in credit bonds, suggesting that certain issuers may offer better yield curves for investment [6][25] - It provides a list of credit issuers that may present opportunities for investors looking to capitalize on steep yield curves [6][25] - The report indicates that while liquidity in credit bonds is generally lower, selecting larger issuers can improve investment outcomes [6][25] Group 4 - The report on the communications industry discusses the critical role of switches in network interconnectivity, driven by the growth of data centers and the increasing demand for high-speed networking equipment [9] - It notes that the switch market is highly concentrated, with the top five global manufacturers holding a significant market share, indicating potential competitive advantages for these firms [9][9] - The report suggests that advancements in AI are pushing the demand for higher-speed switches, which could benefit companies involved in this technology [9][9] Group 5 - The report on the coal industry outlines the structural oversupply and external constraints facing the sector, with a focus on the increasing concentration of production capacity [10] - It discusses the transition of coal from a primary energy source to a regulatory energy source, indicating a shift in demand dynamics [10][10] - The report predicts that coal demand may plateau as the relationship between coal and electricity generation becomes more integrated [10][10] Group 6 - The report on Nanjing Light (300940) highlights the company's strategic shift from mobile phone displays to a broader range of applications, including gaming and automotive displays, driven by the launch of the Switch2 product [11][27] - It emphasizes the expected turnaround in profitability due to the successful launch of the Switch2, projecting significant revenue growth in the coming years [11][28] - The report provides a positive outlook for the company's future, with anticipated earnings growth and a target price based on projected performance [11][30]

Group 1 - The report indicates that after a broker's movement and the Shanghai Composite Index breakout, the technology sector shows a high win rate of 100% and an average return of approximately 9% over 15 trading days, making it more favorable compared to brokers [1][25]. - The current trading strategy focuses on technology sector rebounds rather than brokers, suggesting a need to assess whether the current financial market conditions are comparable to those in November 2014, with significant differences in relative returns between the financial and technology sectors since 2023 [1][25]. - The military industry, as another elastic sector, also demonstrates a good rebound win rate under similar historical conditions [1][26]. Group 2 - The report defines broker movement and Shanghai Composite Index breakout by three criteria: a broker index daily increase of over 5%, more than 10 stocks in the broker sector hitting the daily limit, and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the past quarter [10][19]. - A notable failure in technology sector rebounds occurred on November 24, 2014, when the TMT technology style had been strong for over two years, and the blue-chip financial sector was undervalued, leading to a significant rebound driven by unexpected interest rate cuts [2][15]. - The military sector also shows promising rebound rates in similar historical scenarios, indicating its potential as an investment opportunity [18][26].

Market Overview - The market experienced a slight decline of 0.76% during the week of June 16-20, continuing a narrow fluctuation pattern [2] - The average daily trading volume for the week was 12,122 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,559 billion yuan from the previous week, indicating a decline in market activity [2] - The number of stocks that rose averaged 1,975, down by 418 from the previous week, while the number of stocks hitting the daily limit fell from 73 to 55, reflecting a weakening profit effect [2] Policy Dynamics - The Lujiazui Forum held on June 18 focused on "Financial Opening and Cooperation in the Global Economic Change," where several financial policy measures were announced [3][26] - Key policies include the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center and the promotion of offshore trade financial service reforms in the Shanghai Lingang New Area [25][27] - The forum emphasized the need for high-level financial opening and cooperation, with a focus on enhancing the financial service capacity to support the real economy [27][28] Industry Trends - The battery and stablecoin sectors showed strong performance during the market review period, indicating a shift towards these themes in investment strategies [2][10] - Innovations in artificial intelligence and high-end manufacturing were highlighted, with significant developments such as Meta's collaboration with Oakley to launch smart glasses [3][10] - The introduction of a 30-day fast-track approval process for innovative drug clinical trials aims to enhance the efficiency of drug development in China [39][40] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in the green finance sector, with an estimated funding requirement exceeding 25 trillion yuan to achieve carbon peak targets by 2030 [27] - The aging population in China is projected to create a silver economy worth approximately 30 trillion yuan by 2035, presenting significant opportunities in wealth management and related services [27] - The report suggests that the technology and innovation sectors, particularly those related to artificial intelligence and biotechnology, are poised for growth due to supportive government policies and increasing market demand [28][39]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 28.81 CNY, corresponding to a market capitalization of 6.425 billion CNY [5][38]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the launch of Nintendo Switch 2, with a diversified layout in full-scene display modules and a strong technological reserve in Mini/Micro-LED [4][37]. - The company has successfully transitioned from a focus on mobile backlighting to mid-size products, enhancing its revenue structure with high-margin gaming and tablet products [2][29]. Company Overview - Shenzhen Nanjiguang Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. was established in 2009, focusing on the R&D, production, and sales of LED backlight products, with applications in smartphones, tablets, gaming, automotive displays, and medical devices [1][12]. - The company has a stable ownership structure, with the founders holding a combined 39.03% of shares, ensuring control and liquidity [1][14]. Business Transformation and Growth Engines - The company is shifting from traditional mobile backlighting, which saw a revenue share drop from 91.15% in 2022 to lower levels due to declining LCD market share and increased competition [2][27]. - In 2024, the company became the exclusive supplier of backlight modules for the Nintendo Switch 2, meeting stringent technical requirements and driving a shift towards higher-margin products [2][29]. Financial Performance - The company faced a downturn from 2020 to 2023, with a net loss of 305.25 million CNY in 2023, but is projected to return to profitability in 2024 with a net profit of 20.63 million CNY [3][39]. - The gross margin is expected to improve significantly, rising from -3.47% in 2023 to 16.24% in 2024 and 26.97% in Q1 2025 [3][39]. Investment Recommendations - The company is anticipated to achieve net profits of 257 million CNY, 353 million CNY, and 457 million CNY from 2025 to 2027, benefiting from the anticipated sales of the Switch 2 exceeding expectations [4][38]. - The report highlights the potential for the company to expand its influence in the industry and attract high-end clients due to its successful collaboration with Nintendo [4][38].

Group 1 - The core idea of the report focuses on the potential for credit subject riding strategies, emphasizing the importance of selecting bonds with a relatively steep yield curve and longer remaining maturities to capture higher coupon rates and riding returns as bond maturities shorten [2][8] - The report highlights that despite a relatively flat yield curve across various credit products, there are still specific subjects with steeper yield curves that may offer riding returns [2][10] - The report provides a selection of credit subjects with larger outstanding bond scales to ensure better liquidity and compares the slope of their yield curves against the corresponding China bond yield curve [3][13] Group 2 - The report lists the results of screening for credit subjects across different maturity segments, focusing on those with outstanding scales above 5 billion and a yield curve slope exceeding the corresponding China bond yield curve slope by 0.05 [14][18] - Specific tables detail the preferred credit subjects for riding strategies in the 3-5 year, 4-6 year, 5-7 year, and 6-10 year maturity segments, including issuer names, credit ratings, and yield comparisons [15][19] - The report includes graphical representations of the yield situation for selected subjects, illustrating their performance against the corresponding China bond curve [11][17]

Group 1: Communication Industry - Switches are key devices for network interconnection, with data center construction driving demand growth for switches. The Ethernet switch is used for network information exchange and operates mainly at the physical, data link, network, and transport layers. The domestic and international data center market continues to grow, leading to an upgrade in network equipment [2][19][20] - The switch market is highly concentrated, with the top five global manufacturers holding a market share of 69.60% in 2024. Cisco leads with a 35.9% market share, while Huawei holds 32.4% of the domestic market [2][20] - Network availability determines the stability of GPU cluster computing power, with AI driving the development of higher-speed data center switches. The demand for computing power continues to rise as AI model parameters increase exponentially [2][21] Group 2: Energy Mining Industry - The coal industry faces structural overcapacity and significant external constraints. By 2024, the concentration of coal production capacity has increased, with 82 large-scale coal mines and a certified capacity of approximately 1.36 billion tons per year [3][23] - The transition from primary energy to regulatory energy is evident, with coal's role shifting towards peak regulation. The demand for coal is expected to plateau as integrated projects for wind, solar, water, and thermal energy are gradually implemented [3][24] - The relationship between coal and electricity is evolving towards deeper integration, with coal's positioning shifting from primary energy to regulatory energy. This may lead to greater price volatility for coal, although current overcapacity and inventory levels suggest a narrowing of price fluctuations [3][25] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Industry - The development of innovative drugs relies on a solid industrial foundation, policy support, and capital backing. In 2024, global drug sales are projected to reach $29.482 billion for Keytruda and $29.296 billion for semaglutide, with the ADC market also showing rapid growth [8][9] - China's innovative drugs have significantly reduced the time gap to market compared to global counterparts, with over 30% of clinical trials globally being conducted in China. The proportion of Chinese molecules in high-value BD transactions has surpassed 25% [8][9] - With a solid industrial base, Chinese innovative drugs are becoming a key player globally, and with continued policy support, they are expected to achieve further domestic market penetration [8][9] Group 4: Chemical Industry - Jinhui Industrial achieved a revenue of 5.303 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 557 million yuan. The first quarter saw a revenue increase of 7.2% year-on-year, with a net profit surge of 87.3% [10][11] - The export of sucralose maintained double-digit growth, with a total export volume of 18,700 tons in 2024, reflecting a strong demand for sugar substitutes [10][11] - The company is expanding its product range and reducing costs, with new projects in electronic-grade hydrogen peroxide and lithium battery electrolyte precursors expected to support future growth [10][11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for switches is driven by the growth of data center construction, with the global market for switches expected to grow significantly [2][18] - The Ethernet switch market is highly concentrated, with the top five manufacturers holding a significant market share [2][70] - The transition to white box technology is reducing procurement and operational costs, while the CPO switch market shows promising prospects [30][36] - AI is driving the upgrade and expansion of data center switches, with a notable increase in the adoption of higher-speed ports [119] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Switch Industry and Technology Trends - Switches are key devices for network interconnection, expanding network coverage and providing more connection ports [9] - The global Ethernet switch market is projected to grow from $61.9 billion in 2020 to $96.8 billion by 2025, with a CAGR of 9.4% [23] - In China, the market is expected to grow from 116.8 billion yuan in 2020 to 318 billion yuan by 2025, with a CAGR of 22.2% [23] 2. Analysis of the Switch Industry Chain - The switch industry chain includes upstream components like chips, midstream manufacturing, and downstream applications in telecommunications, cloud services, and data centers [60] - The chip cost accounts for the highest proportion of switch costs at 32% [60] - The global switch OEM market is transitioning towards China, with a significant share of manufacturing now located in mainland China [74] 3. AI Development Driving Switch Upgrades - The increasing demand for AI models is leading to a rise in the need for high-performance data center switches [119] - The adoption of RDMA technology is crucial for reducing communication latency in distributed training [111] - By 2027, Ethernet is expected to surpass InfiniBand in terms of deployment in AI backend networks [118] 4. Recommended Companies to Watch - Companies to focus on include: Shengke Communication, Yutai Micro, Ruijie Networks, Unisplendour, ZTE, Feiling Kesi, and Gongjin [4]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [4] Core Insights - The coal industry is currently facing structural overcapacity and significant external constraints, with a notable increase in capacity concentration and advanced production capabilities [1][18][22] - The transition from coal as a primary energy source to a regulatory energy source is underway, with coal's role shifting towards peak regulation as integrated projects involving wind, solar, and hydroelectric power are promoted [2][53] - The price of coal is expected to remain low for an extended period, with the price gap between port and pit coal gradually narrowing due to the increasing share of pit power plants [3][28] Summary by Sections Supply Side Differences: Structural Overcapacity and External Constraints - The current situation reflects structural overcapacity rather than the total overcapacity seen in 2015, with significant production capacity exceeding actual output [11][18] - The coal industry has seen a substantial reduction in backward production capacity, with advanced capacity now making up a larger share [18][25] - The concentration of production capacity in major coal-producing regions has increased, enhancing the effectiveness of safety and environmental supervision [38][41] Demand Side Differences: Strong Renewable Substitution Effect - The demand for coal is transitioning as renewable energy sources gain traction, with coal's role evolving from a primary energy source to a regulatory energy source [2][46] - By 2025, the total installed capacity of wind and solar power is projected to surpass that of coal-fired power for the first time, indicating a significant shift in the energy landscape [46][50] Insights on Coal Prices - The coal price cycle is expected to extend, with the integration of coal and electricity leading to a narrowing price gap between port and pit coal [3][28] - The coal price center remains above levels seen in 2015, indicating better overall financial health for coal enterprises compared to that period [25][28]