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保利发展:销售规模领先行业,拿地聚焦一二线城市-20250312
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-03-12 02:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Insights - The company leads the industry in sales scale, with a notable increase in sales price [1][2]. - The company is focusing its land acquisition in first and second-tier cities, with a significant acceleration in investment pace [2]. - The government’s policies are expected to support market recovery, which may benefit the company’s performance in the coming years [3]. Sales Performance - In February, the company achieved a signed area of 782,900 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 17.39%, while the signed amount reached 15.995 billion yuan, an increase of 2.38% [1]. - Cumulatively, from January to February, the signed area was 1.5549 million square meters, down 27.19%, and the signed amount was 34.011 billion yuan, down 5.39% [1]. - The average sales price in February was 20,430 yuan per square meter, up 23.9% year-on-year, and the average for January to February was 21,873 yuan per square meter, up 30% year-on-year [1]. Investment Activity - In February, the company added 6 new projects with a planned construction area of 613,900 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, and a land acquisition amount of 12.224 billion yuan, up 226% [2]. - Cumulatively, from January to February, the company acquired 9 projects with a planned construction area of 890,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 79%, and a total land acquisition amount of approximately 16.1 billion yuan, up 330% [2]. - The company’s land acquisition intensity for January to February was 47.4%, significantly higher than the previous year's 10.4% [2]. Financial Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.016 billion yuan, 5.406 billion yuan, and 6.337 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.42 yuan, 0.45 yuan, and 0.53 yuan [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 21x for 2024, 19.5x for 2025, and 16.6x for 2026 [3].
钢铁行业周报:钢材去库,基本面渐好
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-03-12 02:22
证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 11 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 钢铁行业周报 钢材去库,基本面渐好 相关研究: | 1.《冬储意愿偏弱,钢价震荡下 | | --- | | 行》 2024.12.24 | | 2.《去库持续,关注冬储进程》 | | 2024.12.30 | 行业评级:增持(维持) 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 5 2 -3 绝对收益 7 1 7 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 钢铁(申万) 沪深300 注:相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师:王逸奇 证书编号:S0500524080002 Tel:(8621) 50293519 Email:wyq06893@xcsc.com 地址:上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 核心要点: ❑ 市场回顾:钢铁板块上涨 2.7%,估值上升 上周(3.3-3.7)钢铁板块(801950.SI)上涨 2.7%,同期沪深 300 上涨 1.39%, 行业跑赢基准指数(沪深 300)1.31 个百分点。钢铁行业板块 PE 估值为 16.3 倍,处于近十年来 70 ...
钢材去库,基本面渐好
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-03-12 02:01
证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 11 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 钢铁行业周报 钢材去库,基本面渐好 相关研究: | 1.《冬储意愿偏弱,钢价震荡下 | | --- | | 行》 2024.12.24 | | 2.《去库持续,关注冬储进程》 | | 2024.12.30 | 行业评级:增持(维持) 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 5 2 -3 绝对收益 7 1 7 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 钢铁(申万) 沪深300 注:相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师:王逸奇 证书编号:S0500524080002 Tel:(8621) 50293519 Email:wyq06893@xcsc.com 地址:上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 核心要点: ❑ 市场回顾:钢铁板块上涨 2.7%,估值上升 上周(3.3-3.7)钢铁板块(801950.SI)上涨 2.7%,同期沪深 300 上涨 1.39%, 行业跑赢基准指数(沪深 300)1.31 个百分点。钢铁行业板块 PE 估值为 16.3 倍,处于近十年来 70 ...
ETF市场跟踪与配置周报-2025-03-11
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-03-11 15:14
ETF 市场跟踪与配置周报 1. 《北向资金视角下的ETF轮动》 2022.03.30 行业ETF轮动》 2022.06.28 策略——ETF系列研究》 2024.03.27 分析师:李正威 证书编号:S0500522090001 Tel:(8621) 50295307 Email:lizw@xcsc.com 中国人寿金融中心10楼 相关研究: 核心要点: 最近一周市场概况(2025-3-3 至 2025-3-7) 2. 《基于北向资金与主力资金的 3. 《PB-ROE框架下的ETF轮动 上周在 31 个申万一级行业中,26 个行业上涨,5 个行业下跌,行业涨多跌 少。涨幅较多的三个行业为有色金属(涨 7.08%)、国防军工(涨 6.96%) 和计算机(涨 6.74%);跌幅较多的三个行业为石油石化(跌 1.49%)、 综合(跌 1.03%)和房地产(跌 0.91%)。上周 5 个交易日中,主力资金 4 个交易日净流出、1 个交易日净流入,全周合计净流出 844.18 亿元。 证券研究报告 2025 年 3 月 10 日 湘财证券研究所 金融工程研究 基金研究 敬请阅读末页之重要声明 最近一周 ETF 市场表 ...
房地产行业数据点评:新房成交小幅回落,二手房成交持续增长
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-03-11 11:54
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2][7][31] Core Insights - New home sales have slightly declined, while second-hand home transactions continue to grow, indicating a stronger market for second-hand properties compared to new homes [4][10][31] - The government is expected to implement policies to stabilize the real estate market, which may include easing restrictive measures and accelerating the acquisition of existing properties and idle land [7][31] Summary by Sections New and Second-Hand Housing Sales Data - In the week of March 3-9, new home sales in 30 major cities amounted to 1.47 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 33% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.6% [4][10] - Second-hand home sales in 13 cities reached 1.92 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 2% and a year-on-year increase of 66% [4][10] Key City Transactions - **Shanghai**: Second-hand home daily average transactions reached 858 units, a year-on-year increase of 57% [5][15] - **Guangzhou**: Second-hand home transactions rose to 2,540 units, a year-on-year increase of 16% [6][20] - **Shenzhen**: Second-hand home daily average transactions were 199 units, a year-on-year increase of 54% [6][23] - **Beijing**: Second-hand home daily average transactions were 550 units, a year-on-year increase of 41% [6][28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with low financial risks, strong land acquisition capabilities, and reasonable land reserves, as well as top second-hand housing intermediaries benefiting from active transactions [7][31]
企业信贷需求改善政策力度再创新高
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-03-11 09:55
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, suggesting a focus on potential investment opportunities following the "Two Sessions" policy signals [3]. Core Insights - The manufacturing sector has returned to an expansion phase, with a PMI of 50.2 in February 2025, indicating improved production and new orders [8]. - The construction industry has shown significant improvement, with a PMI of 52.7 in February 2025, driven by post-holiday resumption of work and supportive fiscal policies [13]. - There has been a notable increase in corporate credit demand, with new RMB loans reaching 4.78 trillion yuan in January 2025, reflecting a recovery in the real economy [16]. - The government work report highlights a commitment to maintaining a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, alongside a historic high fiscal deficit rate of 4% [27][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Manufacturing Sector Recovery - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in February 2025, with production and new orders indices at 52.5 and 51.1 respectively, indicating a return to expansion [8]. - Export orders have improved, with a new export orders index at 48.6, suggesting better-than-expected export performance despite tariff impacts [8]. 2. Significant Growth in Corporate Credit - In January 2025, the new social financing scale reached 7.06 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans contributing significantly to this growth [16]. - The increase in corporate credit demand is attributed to enhanced confidence in the economy and supportive government policies [23]. 3. Government Work Report Highlights - The report sets a GDP growth target of 5% for 2025, maintaining consistency with previous years [27]. - The fiscal deficit rate is set to rise to 4% in 2025, reflecting a strong commitment to fiscal expansion [28]. - The government plans to increase the special bond quota to 4.4 trillion yuan in 2025, with a focus on infrastructure and debt resolution [29].
康希诺(688185):MCV4商业化进展顺利,带动公司营收快速增长
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-03-11 09:24
证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 07 日 湘财证券研究所 公司研究 康希诺(688185.SH) MCV4 商业化进展顺利,带动公司营收快速增长 相关研究: 1. 《以创新为核心,由Biotech转 型为Biopharma》 20241216 近十二个月公司表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 1 -10 6 绝对收益 3 -10 18 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 康希诺 沪深300 注:相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师:许雯 证书编号:S0500517110001 Tel:021-50293534 Email:xw3315@xcsc.com 地址:上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 公司发布2024年度业绩快报。2024年实现营收8.46亿元,同比增长137.01%; 实现归母净利润-3.79 亿元,亏损幅度显著收窄(去年同期-14.83 亿元);EPS 为-1.53 元/股(去年同期-6.01 元/股)。 核心要点: ❑ 受益于 MCV4 商业化的快速推进,公司营收实现快速增长 公司目前已上市产品共五款,其中 ...
锂电材料行业周报:上周行业小幅下跌,成本端支撑三元前驱体及材料价格上涨-2025-03-11
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-03-11 08:47
行业研究 锂电材料行业周报 上周行业小幅下跌,成本端支撑三元前驱体及材料价格上涨 相关研究: | 《上周锂源价格下跌,淡季需求仍偏弱,锂 | | --- | | 电铜箔加工费有所下滑》 20250304 | | 《上周隔膜行业控库降低开工,负极利润受 | | 压下或推涨新单价格》 20250225 | 行业评级:增持(维持) 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 8 -2 6 绝对收益 9 -3 18 注:相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师:王攀 证书编号:S0500520120001 Tel:(8621) 50293524 Email:wangpan2@xcsc.com 证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 10 日 湘财证券研究所 地址:上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 核心要点: ❑ 市场行情:上周锂电材料行业跌 0.21%,跑输基准 1.59pct 上周锂电材料行业略跌 0.21%,跑输基准(沪深 300)1.59pct。行业估值 (市盈率 TTM)回落 0.51x 至 35.12x,当前处于 34.6%历史分位。 ❑ 正极材料:上周成本 ...
供需两端政策发力,“止跌回稳”目标明确
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-03-11 08:47
Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Buy (Maintain) [1] Core Viewpoints - The government work report emphasizes the goal of stabilizing the real estate market and preventing systemic risks, with specific measures to promote a "stop decline and stabilize" approach [3][4] - The report indicates that the real estate sector plays a crucial role in stabilizing the macro economy, suggesting that the policy will continue to be accommodative this year [4] - Demand-side policies will focus on adjusting restrictive measures based on city-specific conditions, with expectations for further relaxation of purchase restrictions and tax adjustments to stimulate demand [5] - Supply-side measures include controlling new land supply and supporting the acquisition of existing properties, with local governments given more autonomy in the acquisition process [6] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Performance - The real estate sector has shown a relative performance of -4% over the past 12 months compared to the CSI 300 index, with an absolute return of 7% [2][3] Demand Side - Policies will be implemented to reduce restrictive measures, including lowering mortgage rates and down payment ratios, which are at historical lows [5] - The government plans to implement 1 million units of urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, which will directly increase sales of new and second-hand homes [5] Supply Side - The report highlights a more proactive fiscal policy for 2025, with local government special bonds amounting to 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year [6] - The land supply will continue to be controlled, but the quality of new land will improve, potentially enhancing project profitability [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality developers with strong financing and land acquisition capabilities, as well as leading second-hand housing intermediaries benefiting from active transactions [8]
裕太微(688515):业绩快报点评:2024年营收增长47.63%单口2.5GPHY持续放量
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-03-11 08:43
公司研究 裕太微(688515.SH)业绩快报点评 2024 年营收增长 47.63% 单口 2.5G PHY 持续放量 证券研究报告 2025 年 3 月 6 日 湘财证券研究所 ❑ 单口 2.5G PHY 持续放量,4 口 2.5G PHY 完成初步研发 2022 年底,公司 2.5G PHY 量产出货,2023 年实现单品营收 2085.92 万元, 2024 年上半年,则实现了 3870.94 万元的单品营收,2.5G PHY 产品在 2024 年放量增长。公司 4 口 2.5G PHY 已完成初步研发,4 口 2.5G PHY 可以在 部分场景从速率上替代单口 10G 产品。运营商客户从 2020 年开始筹备家庭 接入网从千兆向 2.5G 产品的升级,到 2024 年开始逐步招标、落标,裕太 微配合客户进行方案设计及标准制定,在 2022 年完成了单口 2.5G 产品研 发,到 2024 年开始陆续出货并在营收端得到体现。 ❑ 展示 YT9230 系列交换芯片,市场渗透率有望逐步提升 在去年的 IC China 展上,裕太微展示了新品 YT9230 系列交换芯片,YT9230 系列交换芯片由 MAC ...