Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the power sector, specifically recommending stocks in thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, and renewable energy [2][8]. Core Insights - The power industry is experiencing growth in thermal and hydropower sectors, while nuclear and renewable energy sectors face performance pressures. The overall net profit for the power industry in 2024 is projected to be 1,797 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [11][12]. - The introduction of Document No. 136 is expected to facilitate a transition to high-quality development in the renewable energy sector, with a focus on efficiency and profitability rather than rapid expansion [2][8]. Summary by Sections Thermal Power - The thermal power sector achieved a net profit of 625.7 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 37.3%. The first quarter of 2025 saw a net profit of 206.3 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year. This growth is attributed to a significant decline in coal prices, which offset the negative impacts of reduced electricity volume and prices [5][17][29]. - The average market price of coal has dropped to 640 yuan per ton as of May 8, 2025, a decrease of 286 yuan per ton or 31% compared to early 2024, indicating potential for improved profitability in the thermal power sector [5][29]. Hydropower - The hydropower sector reported a net profit of 563.21 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.6%. The first quarter of 2025 continued this trend with a net profit of 113.38 billion yuan, up 28.1% year-on-year. This performance is driven by favorable water conditions and reduced financial costs [32][33]. - The average on-grid electricity price for hydropower has shown resilience, with a slight decline of only 0.62% year-on-year, indicating strong market positioning [5][45]. Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector's net profit was 195.91 billion yuan in 2024, down 8.2% year-on-year, primarily due to tax liabilities from previous years. However, excluding one-time factors, the performance remains stable. The first quarter of 2025 saw a net profit of 61.63 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.5% year-on-year [5][12]. - Long-term growth potential is highlighted by the expected commissioning of new units in 2025, which may mitigate the impact of declining electricity prices [5][12]. Renewable Energy - The renewable energy sector faced challenges with a net profit of -3.6 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a significant decline. The first quarter of 2025 also showed a negative trend with a net profit of 4.8 billion yuan, indicating ongoing pressures from unfavorable resource conditions and declining electricity prices [12][8]. - The implementation of Document No. 136 is anticipated to shift the focus towards high-quality development, emphasizing the importance of existing projects and cost management capabilities among leading firms in the sector [2][8].

北交所日报 北交所日报(2025.05.09) 2025 年 05 月 09 日 核心观点 分析师 范想想 2. 【银河北交所】2024 中期策略_新质生产力赋能 北证,关注国央企投资价值 3. 【中国银河证券】Deepseek 冲击波:北交所_ 中小企业的智能化赋能 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ☎: 010-8092-7663 网：fanxiangxiang_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130518090002 2025-05-09 相对沪深 300 表现图 资料来源:iFinD,中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 1. 【银河北交所】2025 年度策略_并购重组助高质 发展，抓两新两重投资机遇 5 月 9 日, 北证 50 涨跌幅为-0.12%,收于 1379.31点。北证 50 指数开 ● 盘点位为 1380.69 点，最高点位达 1399.14 点，最低点位为 1367.92 点。同 日,上证指数收于 3342.00点,涨跌幅为-0.30%;沪深 300 收 ...

宏观动态报告 关税冲击下的出口韧性 4 月进出口数据解读 2025年5月9日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 网:zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 目雷 ☎：010-8092-7780 网: lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 风险提示:外需走弱的风险;国内经济下行的风险;贸易摩擦加剧的风险。 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 集成电路和汽车出口修复上行:(1)4月份机电、高技术和劳动密集型产品 ● 出口增速均有不同程度回落,其中机电产品出口增速 10.1%(前值 13.4%), 高新技术产品出口增速 6.5%(前值 7.3%)，劳动密集型产品出口增速转负至 -1.7%（前值 9.1%）；（2）集成电路 20.2%（前值 7.9%）和汽车包括底盘 4.4%(前值 1.7%)出口增速均有不同程度上行;通用机械设备 17%(前值 ...

Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates for a longer period, with a higher probability of rate cuts occurring in the second half of the year, although the likelihood of a July cut is decreasing due to slow tariff negotiations and resilient economic growth [1][2][7] - The A-share market is anticipated to show stronger resilience due to ongoing policy support aimed at stabilizing and activating the capital market, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions for company transformation [1][12] Equity Market Insights - The U.S. stock market is facing multiple pressures that could trigger a downward spiral, despite some recovery due to eased tariff policies and fiscal stimulus expectations [1][17] - The A-share market is expected to benefit from policies promoting long-term capital inflows and corporate restructuring, with a focus on high-margin assets and sectors boosted by policy support [1][17] Fixed Income Strategy - The convertible bond market is experiencing a decline, with a focus on identifying undervalued securities and opportunities related to redemption clauses [19][20] - The performance of convertible bonds is closely tied to the overall equity market, with a recommendation for a diversified portfolio including specific convertible bonds [19][21] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The "Action Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of Public Funds" aims to enhance investor returns and expand the scale of equity investments in public funds, which is crucial for long-term capital market stability [24][28] - The plan emphasizes performance-based fee structures and long-term investment strategies to improve the overall quality of the public fund industry [25][26] Automotive Industry - The automotive sector has shown strong performance in Q1 2025, with significant fund allocation and a continuous increase in holdings by public funds, driven by favorable policies and market conditions [30][31] - The sector is expected to maintain high growth momentum due to new product launches and consumer demand stimulation [30][31] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical industry is under pressure due to cost control measures, with a notable decline in revenue and profit margins, but there are signs of recovery in the innovative drug segment [36][39] - The innovative drug sector is projected to benefit from supportive policies and improving market conditions, leading to potential value recovery [38][39]

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 北证50 沪深300 ⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫ 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 10 图1:北证成交额与换手率情况(截至2025.05.08) ■成交金额（合计/亿元) ●换手率（算数平均/%） 600 16.0 14.0 500 12.0 400 10.0 300 8.0 6.0 200 4.0 100 2.0 0 0.0 03-11 03-14 04-15 02-10 8T 70 ET 70 02-26 03-03 03-06 03-19 03-24 03-27 04-07 04-10 04-18 04-23 04-28 05-06 01-02 01-15 02-05 02-21 04-01 01-23 01- 01 可证券|CGS 中国银河证券|CGS 北交所日报 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 图2：北证与 A 股各行业当日涨跌幅（算数平均/%/ 2025.05.08) ■北交所算数平均涨跌幅 ■Ａ股算数平均涨跌幅 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 北交所日 ...

Market Performance - The average daily change for the North Exchange (北证) and A-shares (A股) shows significant fluctuations, with the North Exchange experiencing a maximum increase of 29.99% for the top-performing stock on May 8, 2025[9] - The trading volume for the North Exchange reached a total of 600 billion CNY, with an average turnover rate of 16% as of May 8, 2025[7] Stock Highlights - The top ten stocks by increase on May 8, 2025, had an average market capitalization of 19.06 billion CNY, with the highest PE ratio recorded at 570.74 for Tongyi Aerospace (通易航天) despite a negative net profit[9] - Conversely, the bottom ten stocks by decrease had an average market capitalization of 32.48 billion CNY, with the largest drop of -7.57% for Qiule Seed Industry (秋乐种业)[10] Valuation Insights - The PE ratio for the North Exchange companies varies significantly across industries, indicating diverse valuation levels, with some sectors like electronics showing extremely high PE ratios, such as 2,690.19 for Huiwei Intelligent (慧为智能)[11] - The valuation trends for the North Exchange compared to the Sci-Tech Board and Growth Enterprise Market indicate a competitive landscape, with the North Exchange showing a steady increase in valuation metrics[12] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, intensified market competition, and overall market volatility[14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Bank (stock code: 002948) [1] Core Views - Qingdao Bank shows steady improvement in revenue growth and a rebound in net interest margin, with a revenue increase of 8.22% year-on-year in 2024 and a net profit growth of 20.16% [4] - The bank's strategy focuses on structural adjustments, enhancing customer base, optimizing collaboration, and improving capabilities, which supports its stable expansion and solid asset quality [4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, Qingdao Bank's revenue grew by 8.22% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 20.16%. The weighted average ROE was 11.51%, up by 0.8 percentage points [4] - For Q4 2024, revenue and net profit grew by 8.5% and 44.53% year-on-year, respectively, driven by high growth in net interest income and other non-interest income [4] - In Q1 2025, revenue rose by 9.69% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 16.42% [4] Net Interest Income and Margin - In 2024, net interest income increased by 6.38% year-on-year, with a notable growth of 11.97% in Q1 2025. The net interest margin for 2024 was 1.73%, down by 10 basis points year-on-year, but showed a rebound in Q1 2025 due to effective cost optimization [4] Loan and Deposit Growth - Total loans grew by 13.53% year-on-year in 2024, with corporate loans contributing significantly at 18.71% growth. Retail loan growth showed signs of recovery, with a 1.56% increase in Q1 2025 compared to the beginning of the year [4] - Total deposits increased by 12.13% year-on-year in 2024, with personal deposits growing by 16.64% [4] Non-Interest Income and Investment Gains - Non-interest income rose by 13.58% year-on-year in 2024, although intermediary income faced pressure, declining by 6.39% [4] - Investment income saw significant growth, with increases of 33.28% in 2024 and 188.64% in Q1 2025 [4] Asset Quality - The bank's non-performing loan ratio was 1.14% at the end of 2024, down by 4 basis points year-on-year, while the coverage ratio improved to 251.49% [4] - Retail loan risks increased slightly, with the non-performing loan ratio rising to 2.02% [4] Financial Projections - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 8.22% for 2024 and 8.19% for 2025, with net profit growth rates of 20.16% and 15.10% respectively [42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hangzhou Bank (stock code: 600926) [1] Core Views - Hangzhou Bank continues to show strong profit growth, with a 2024 revenue increase of 9.61% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 18.07% year-on-year. The bank's return on equity (ROE) stands at 16%, reflecting a 0.43 percentage point increase year-on-year [3] - The bank's asset quality remains excellent, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 530.07% as of March 2025, indicating strong risk mitigation capabilities [3] - The bank's strategy focuses on expanding its presence in the Yangtze River Delta region, with a clear plan to strengthen corporate finance and enhance retail and small micro-business services [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the bank's revenue reached approximately 38.38 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 9.61% for 2025 [38] - The net interest income for 2024 was approximately 24.46 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.37% [39] - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is estimated at 16.98 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 18.07% [38] Asset Quality - As of the end of 2024, the bank's NPL ratio was 0.76%, with a stable level of attention loans at 0.55% [3] - The bank's retail loan risk has slightly increased, with an NPL ratio of 0.77% for retail loans [3] Growth Strategy - The bank is actively expanding in the Yangtze River Delta, leveraging its geographical advantages to enhance its market position [3] - The bank's strategic plan includes strengthening corporate finance and expanding retail and small micro-business services as key growth drivers [3] Valuation Metrics - The projected book value per share (BVPS) for 2025 is 19.54 yuan, with corresponding price-to-book (P/B) ratios of 0.76X for 2025, 0.65X for 2026, and 0.55X for 2027 [3][38]

Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rate is projected to be 1.7% in 2024, with a slight increase to 1.83% in 2025[11] - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 is estimated at 2.38%[11] - The GDP growth rate for 2023 is expected to be around 2.30%[11] Market Trends - The market is expected to experience fluctuations, with a potential decline of 4.0% in Q1 2024[11] - Inflation rates are projected to stabilize around 2.0% in the coming quarters[11] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at approximately 4.0%[11] Financial Projections - The interest rate is expected to rise gradually, reaching around 5.6% by the end of 2024[8] - The consumer price index (CPI) is projected to increase by 3.0% in 2024[15] - The overall market sentiment indicates a cautious optimism, with a focus on sustainable growth strategies[12]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the May FOMC meeting, with limited incremental information provided[2] - The Fed's current stance suggests that rate cuts may not occur in the first half of the year, as they remain data-dependent[2] - The Fed is likely to implement two to three rate cuts in the second half of the year, with the probability of a July cut decreasing[2][4] Inflation and Economic Concerns - The Fed emphasizes the risk of stagflation, with concerns about rising inflation and potential increases in unemployment[5] - Internal divisions within the Fed exist regarding the approach to inflation, with some officials advocating for preemptive rate cuts if hard data deteriorates significantly[5][10] - The inflation target for 2025 is projected to remain between 3.0%-3.5%, which does not hinder the possibility of rate cuts[22] Market Reactions and Predictions - Market expectations indicate three potential rate cuts by 2025, with the first cut anticipated in July[20] - U.S. stock indices rose following the meeting, while U.S. Treasury yields declined, reflecting market relief at the Fed's cautious approach[20] - The dollar index increased to 99.9006, indicating market stability despite uncertainties surrounding tariffs and inflation[20] Economic Data and Labor Market - The labor market remains stable, but there are risks of deterioration that could prompt the Fed to consider rate cuts[14][18] - The Fed's reliance on hard data suggests that any significant economic downturn may not be observed until mid-year or later[12][22] - The ongoing tariff negotiations and fiscal policies are deemed more critical in the short term than immediate Fed actions[15]