行 业 点 评 报 告 · 汽 车 行 业 淡 季 销 量 平 稳 ， 促 消 费 政 策 加 码 将 逐 步 显 现 ——7 月 汽 车 行 业 销 量 点 评 2024 年 8 月 12 日 核 心 观 点 事 件 ： 中 汽 协 发 布 2024 年 7 月 汽 车 产 销 数 据 ： 7 月 汽 车 销 量 为 226.2 万 辆 ， 同 比 -5.2%，环 比 -11.4%；产 量 为 228.6 万 辆 ，同 比 -4.8%，环 比 -8.8%；出 口 46.9 万 辆 ， 同 比 +19.6%， 环 比 -3.2%。 其 中 ： 1） 乘 用 车 销 售 199.4 万 辆 ， 同 比 -5.1%， 环 比 -10.0%； 2） 商 用 车 销 售 26.8 万 辆 ， 同 比 -6.6%， 环 比 -20.4%； 3） 新 能 源 汽 车 销 售 99.1 万 辆 ， 同 比 +27.0%， 其 中 ， 国 内 销 量 88.7 万 辆 ， 环 比 -7.9%， 同 比 +30.7%， 新 能 源 汽 车 出 口 10.3 万 辆 ， 环 比 +20.6%， 同 比 +2.2%。 新 能 源 ...

行业点评报告 · 公用事业行业 明确能源转型量化目标，完善绿色转型价格与市场机制 《关于加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型的意见》点评 2024年8月13日 ● 事件:中共中央、国务院发布《关于加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型的意见》 (以下简称《意见》)。《意见》提出,以碳达峰碳中和工作为引领,协同推 进降碳、减污、扩绿、增长,深化生态文明体制改革,健全绿色低碳发展机制, 加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型。 ● 加强煤电调节支撑价值,积极安全有序发展核电。传统能源方面,《意见》 提出加快现役煤电机组节能降碳改造、灵活性改造、供热改造"三改联动" 合理规划建设保障电力系统安全所必需的调节性、支撑性煤电。"三改联动" 增强调峰、调频等调节性价值,有望带动容量补偿、辅助服务收入占比提升。 随着电改推进,我们测算至2030年煤电将有50%左右收入来自边际成本低、 稳定性高的容量补偿和辅助服务,其或将成为煤电主要且稳定的利润来源,煤 电公用事业属性将显著提升。《意见》同时提出积极安全有序发展核电,保持 合理布局和平稳建设节奏,我们预计核电建设有望按每年 8-10 台推进,预计 2025、2030、2035年我国核电在运装机将分别达 ...

毎日晨报 银河观点集萃 ● 宏观：CPI 好于预期, PPI 维持弱势——7 月 CPI、PPI 数据分析。下半年通 账延续温和走势:CPI 低位温和回升,服务支出韧性支撑核心 CPI 小幅上行。 首先,下半年猪价总体将呈上涨走势,但大幅上涨可能性较小;其次,服务消 费支出的韧性有助于推动核心 CPI上行;最后,高基数效应逐步消退。PPI 年 内难以转正,回暖需要政策发力。首先,5月开始 PPI 翘尾因素影响明显缓解, 但新涨价因素未能同步回升拖累同比增速进一步改善;其次,全球经济和需求 前景疲弱,担忧情绪有增无减,或成为制约油价反弹的主要利空;最后,7月 政治局会议强调宏观政策要更加给力,在加快存量政策落地要求下,需关注后 续"两重"项目的加速落地对基建的支持。 ● 银行:强化逆周期调节,畅通货币政策传导机制。货币政策转宽,逆周期调节 力度有望加码,降准降息仍有空间,防范化解金融风险导向延续,为经济持续 复苏和银行资产质量有带来积极支撑。货币政策框架转型和利率市场化受关 注,银行资产端定价仍有下行空间,但息差层面压力可控,存款挂牌利率调降 持续推动负债端成本优化。在资产荒的环境之下,银行板块红利价值延续,配 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 190.56 million yuan in the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.44%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.52% to 20.59 million yuan [1]. - The gross margin increased to 30.32%, up by 1.76 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased to 10.78%, down by 1.63 percentage points [1]. - The company is benefiting from low-cost inventory in its rubber and plastic materials segment, with revenue from rubber and plastic materials increasing by 5.56% to 146.30 million yuan, while revenue from rubber and plastic products decreased by 13.45% [1]. - Research and development expenses grew by 38.22% to 14.71 million yuan, with a research and development expense ratio of 7.72% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the second quarter of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 100.46 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.39% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.49% [1]. - The company’s operating income is projected to grow from 400.45 million yuan in 2023 to 719.00 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 27.71% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 51.88 million yuan in 2023 to 91.20 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 27.30% [6]. - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to improve gradually from 31.11% in 2023 to 32.55% in 2026 [6]. Project Development - The company has ongoing construction projects totaling 36.39 million yuan, with a focus on special engineering plastics, including PA6, PA66, PEI, PEEK, and PI [2]. - The company has developed modified PEEK materials with applications in aerospace, high-speed rail, and automotive sectors, with 12 production lines currently in ramp-up phase [2].

局部流动性风险缓和,有色金属有望修复 有色金属行业周报 核心观点 ● 市场行情回顾:截止到8月9日周五收市:本周上证指数-1.48%,报 2862.19 点; 沪深 300指数-1.56%,报 3331.63点;SW 有色金属行业指数-2.85%, 报 3944.74点。分子行业来看,本周有色金属行业 5个二级子行业中,工业金 属、贵金属、小金属、能源金属、金属新材料较上周变动幅度分别为-2.36%、 -6.39%、-1.72%、-2.75%、-2.18%。 ● 垂点金属价格数据:本周上期所铜、铝、锌、铝、镍、锡分别收于 71,670元 /吨、19,125元/吨、22,605 元/吨、17,905元/吨、130,900元/吨、257,300元 /吨，较上周变动幅度分别为-3.07%、-0.44%、-1.12%、-2.16%、+0.35%、 +3.63%。本周伦敦 LME 铜、铝、锌、铝、镍、锡分别收于 8,831 美元/吨、 2,295 美元/吨、2,741 美元/吨、2,040 美元/吨、16,300 美元/吨、31,180 美元 /吨,较上周变动幅度分别为-2.48%、+1.39%、+3.30%、+0.8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the beverage industry, particularly focusing on bottled water companies like Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage [1]. Core Insights - The introduction of Nongfu Spring's new product "Green Bottle Water" in 2024 has raised concerns about a potential shift in the competitive landscape of the bottled water industry. However, historical analysis suggests that such changes are cyclical, and leading brands can navigate through these cycles to achieve long-term growth [2][3]. - The report identifies two common patterns in the evolution of the bottled water competition over the past 20 years: 1) cyclical changes driven by macro demand, category cycles, cost cycles, and strategies of leading brands; 2) regardless of competition cycles, the industry concentration tends to increase, with Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage consistently maintaining their positions through multiple cycles [2][3]. Summary by Sections Historical Review - The report reviews four significant changes in the bottled water competitive landscape from 2005 to 2021, highlighting that the industry concentration (CR5) has consistently increased, with Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage successfully navigating through various competitive phases [10][13][22]. - From 2005 to 2009, the industry saw rapid expansion with CR5 rising from 46.9% to 61.5%, driven by increased penetration and moderate competition [13]. - Between 2010 and 2011, the shift from 1 yuan to 2 yuan water led to a further increase in CR5 to over 70%, with Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage gaining market share [16]. - The period from 2012 to 2015 was marked by intensified competition, yet CR5 remained stable at around 70%, with both leading brands maintaining their market positions [19][25]. - From 2016 to 2021, the industry experienced a slowdown in competition, with CR5 increasing to 80%, and profitability improving as the market matured [22][24]. Current Competitive Landscape - The report emphasizes that the current competition is characterized by a focus on price promotions, which are seen as a superficial aspect of a deeper trend towards quality-price ratio consumption and diversification of bottled water needs [2][3]. - Nongfu Spring's strategy includes expanding into lower-tier markets and developing new products, which is expected to lead to a new phase of competitive dynamics [2][3]. - The report suggests that the competitive intensity will likely remain manageable, as both Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage are pursuing different strategic directions, which may help stabilize the market [71]. Key Companies - Nongfu Spring is highlighted for its strong product development capabilities and brand strength, with the introduction of "Green Bottle Water" expected to enhance its market share and channel penetration [3][77]. - China Resources Beverage is noted for its solid market presence in southern China and its ongoing investments in brand marketing and operational efficiency, which are anticipated to improve profitability [3].

行业周报 政策有望加码，银行业二季度息差平稳 银行业周报 (2024.08.05-2024.08.11) 2024 年 08 月 11 日 核心观点 。 银行板块表现略优于市场：本周沪深 300 指数下跌 1.56%，银行板块下跌 1.04%。细分板块来看，国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行分别下跌 0.68%、 0.6%、1.69%、3.48%。个股方面，仅北京银行 (1.13%)、浦发银行 (0.71%)、 工商银行（0.68%）、建设银行（0.27%）、招商银行（+0.15%）上涨。截至 8 月 9 日，银行板块 PB 为 0.6 倍，股息率为 5.31%。 o 央行发布二季度货币政策执行报告：我们认为有以下几点值得关注： (1) 信 贷总基趋于合理增长，结构优化，定价下行。6 月末，金融机构本外币贷款余 额、人民币贷款余额同比分别增长 8.3%、8.8%。虽点领域中，普惠小微和制 造业中长期贷款同比分别增长 16.5%和 18.1%，均超全部贷款增速。新发放 贷款加权平均利率为 3.68%，同比下降 0.51 个百分点。（2）政策有望加码， 着力支持经济增长。报告指出稳健的货币政策要增强宏观政策取向一致性 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the automotive industry, recommending specific companies for investment [3]. Core Insights - The "old-for-new" policy has intensified, leading to a significant increase in subsidy applications, with over 450,000 applications submitted by August 2, 2024, and an average daily increase of over 10,000 applications from July 25 to August 2 [10][24]. - The inventory pressure in the automotive sector has eased, with the dealer inventory warning index at 59.4% in July 2024, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.6 percentage points but a month-on-month decrease of 2.9 percentage points [10][11]. - The sales growth of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the price ranges of 250,000-300,000 yuan and 300,000-350,000 yuan has been remarkable, with year-on-year growth rates of 110.5% and 43.8%, respectively, surpassing the market average [10][11]. Summary by Sections Weekly Update - The "old-for-new" policy is showing clear effects on consumer demand, with expectations for continued growth in subsidy applications [10]. - The automotive industry is experiencing a seasonal downturn, yet the demand remains strong due to policy support [10]. Market Review - The automotive sector's performance was ranked 26th among 30 industries, with a weekly decline of 3.19% [11][17]. - The sub-sectors of motorcycles, parts, passenger vehicles, sales and services, and commercial vehicles experienced varying declines, with commercial vehicles seeing the largest drop at 5.94% [11][17]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for investment include GAC Group, BYD, Changan Automobile, and Great Wall Motors for complete vehicles, and Huayu Automotive, Bertel, Desay SV, and others for intelligent components [11][24]. Industry News - The report highlights significant product launches and market expansions, including the launch of the Extreme X model in Singapore and the introduction of BYD's 2025 models [24][26][27].

鉿╃鴋鶅䫟⼴· 駉砯勨鉿╃ 뮿䰤鿞⚂յ璇ꂜ冝䢘յⶶ㝕▟㝙䉘䌑䫟 2024 䌑 08 劓 11 傽 呦䖦間掾 l 䉗㐙㎈뀎续⽟.-.屽广 䭰俚┬鳰 .%⮱╃升䭰俚┬鳰 .%駉砯勨ZX升㑊┬鳰 .%䈰╃鿞⚂升㑊┬鳰 .%ն䈰╃ 鿞⚂升㑊╗艧巹䋀⯼◩⻐⮕⯋╬參噘氲㲳յ缰㴥艧⚌յ筻ꀳ璇䪫յ╚䱽 䪫勘յ㵂⟥鿞⚂鳰䋀⯼◩⻐⮕⯋╬茤璇璇䪫յ鰨䟩⟥䛉յ螧璇䪫յ 册臅鿞⚂յ嚤⛆氲㲳ն l ╭锢鉿╃Ⲙ䘒┱䫌鰑䐮駖 뮿䰤鿞⚂յ璇ꂜ冝䢘յⶶ㝕▟㝙䉘 䌑┪䌑╃缥䫟⼴ն뮿䰤 鿞⚂┪䌑㵄⻓觝╃侅⪝ . ☳⩧⻎嬠㙨ꪍ .%䓛嬏⬥⯈巷 . ☳⩧⻎嬠㙨ꪍ .%䩽긌䓛嬏⬥⯈巷 . ☳⩧⻎嬠㙨ꪍ .% 睋⻉뀔劻嬱⯈椚╬ .%鿲⹜䌑⻎劻┬ꮴ . ╗溯⮕掾鰆氠做긖 ꨆみյ煝յ硅槏鰆氠椚⮕⯋╬ .%յ.%յ.%鿲⹜䌑⻎劻 ⺈⮕⯋╬-.pctյ-.pctյ-.pct鰆氠硅䱽⻉槏ն 璇ꂜ冝䢘┪䌑㵄⻓觝╃䙰侅⪝ . ☳⩧⻎嬠㙨ꪍ .%㵄⻓ 䓛嬏⬥⯈巷 . ☳⩧⻎嬠㙨ꪍ .%俠✅嬱⯈椚╬ .%⻎嬠 䳀ⶬ◗ . ╗溯⮕掾嬱⯈椚⚕甯㎈ⶬ汻鱪뀔劻ն 䌑 Q 㵄⻓觝 ╃䙰侅⪝ . ☳⩧⻎嬠㙨ꪍ .%㵄⻓䓛嬏⬥⯈巷 . ┧⩧ ⻎嬠㙨ꪍ .%ն⺇漩◟茤徏㴘⪢⾕䈰╃駦㜜剳假瞏 ...

每日晨报 银河观点集落 o CGS-NDI：中企出海系列：扬帆大时代，出海新征程。有备无患，先机在握 ——出海主要风险及应对：第一，下半年的美国总统大选决定了未来美国对华 政策的走向，巴以冲突相比上半年进一步升级，地缘政治等因素可能会影响出 海企业生存大环境。第二，全球经济衰退风险上行，不同国家货币政策分化， 投资政策监管施压等方面的潜在变化可能对关键领域的出海企业产生不利影 响。第三，技术的快速迭代甚至颠覆性变革特性可能对某些行业企业造成毁灭 性冲击。企业应强化风险管理体系建设，积极开拓多元化国际市场，并适时调 整战略以适应不断变化的市场需求。 。 宏观："顺风"的逆周期——2024 年 2 季度中国货币政策执行报告解读。货币 政策展望："顺风"的逆周期已开启，未来有可能继续降准、降息。货币政策 目标已由金融稳定切换至促进经济增长，在 9 月美联储降息几乎已成定局的 背景下，中国货币政策宽松的空间在三季度再次打开。央行连续 10 个月保持 政策利率不变的操作在 7 月被打破，而 7 月的降息是新一轮货币阶段性宽松 的开始，年内降息幅度仍有 10-30BP 的空间。未来几个月 MLF 的到期量较 大，8 月、 ...